Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (03690) is recognized as a leading local business platform in China, with solid long-term barriers despite short-term competitive disturbances, focusing on exploring new business increments [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Meituan operates in key sectors including food delivery, instant retail, and in-store travel services, while actively developing new businesses such as Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Kuailu [1] - The macroeconomic environment serves as the largest beta factor, with the service industry showing higher growth rates compared to retail goods, indicating greater growth potential and resilience for the platform [1] - The increasing online penetration rate supports the stability of the food delivery segment, while the rapid penetration of in-store and instant retail services contributes to high growth [1] Group 2: International Expansion - The food delivery business is accelerating its expansion into overseas markets, achieving positive progress in regions such as Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations already profitable as of October this year [2] - The quarterly user engagement (UE) metrics for Q3 2025 show significant growth, and the company plans to continue expanding into the Middle East and Latin America [2] - Although Meituan's internationalization strategy started later, its long-term strategic perspective is expected to significantly broaden the company's Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural flexibility for future profit growth [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Views - The report indicates that increased subsidies have negatively impacted operational performance, with a significant decline in adjusted profit by 89% year-on-year for Q2 2025. Revenue reached 91.84 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year, but operating profit fell to 230 million yuan, down 98% [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, generating 65.35 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.7% increase year-on-year. However, operating profit in this segment dropped by 75.6% [2][11]. - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year, and an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, showing improvement from previous quarters [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, adjusted profit decreased by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment's revenue was 65.35 billion yuan, with a significant decline in operating profit margin to 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with a narrowed operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving from previous quarters [3][12]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 370.34 billion yuan in 2025, 423.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 485.09 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 14.3%, and 14.5% [5][22]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -7.71 billion yuan in 2025, 31.76 billion yuan in 2026, and 46.57 billion yuan in 2027 [5][22]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to increased strategic investments by the company to maintain market leadership and brand recognition [3][20]. - The company plans to focus on core areas and expand its supermarket business while exiting underperforming regions [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [6] Core Views - The company's adjusted profit for Q2 2025 decreased by 89%, with revenue reaching 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [8] - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, with revenue of 65.35 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [2] - Increased subsidies have negatively impacted revenue growth, particularly in the delivery service segment, which saw a decline in growth rates [2][11] - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 22.8% year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported an operating profit of 230 million yuan, down 98% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 0.2%, a decrease of 13.4 percentage points [8] - The adjusted net profit margin was 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [17] Core Local Commerce - Revenue from core local commerce was 65.35 billion yuan, with delivery services, commissions, online marketing, and other services contributing 23.66 billion, 24.95 billion, 13.55 billion, and 3.19 billion yuan respectively [11] - The operating profit for this segment was 3.72 billion yuan, down 75.6% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 5.7%, a decrease of 19.4 percentage points [11] New Business Developments - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving by 3.1 percentage points sequentially [12] - The company plans to focus on core areas and accelerate the expansion of its supermarket business, aiming to cover all first- and second-tier cities in China [12] Future Outlook - The company expects significant losses in the core local commerce segment in Q3 2025 due to increased strategic investments and competitive pressures [20] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to -7.7 billion, 31.76 billion, and 46.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of -117%, -46%, and -35% [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan's Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, showing an 18% year-over-year increase, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was 12.3 billion yuan, up 52% year-over-year, and adjusted net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, a 46% increase, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus [1] Revenue Breakdown - Core local business revenue for Q1 2025 was 64.3 billion yuan, also an 18% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg expectations [1] - New business revenue amounted to 22.2 billion yuan, a 19% year-over-year increase, with an operating loss of 2.3 billion yuan, which was higher than Bloomberg's expectations [1] Business Operations - In the food delivery sector, Meituan enhanced operational efficiency to increase user engagement and purchase frequency, while innovating to empower both supply and demand sides [1] - The launch of differentiated products like "Pin Hao Fan" and "Shen Qiang Shou" aims to meet diverse consumer needs, while the brand satellite store model helps chain merchants reduce costs and improve efficiency [2] Instant Retail Growth - Meituan's instant retail brand "Meituan Flash Purchase" was officially launched, achieving significant growth across various consumer categories [2] - Flash Purchase's transaction volume nearly tripled in May compared to the previous year, with a doubling of sales on the first day of the "618" shopping festival in smaller cities [3] International Expansion - Keeta, a subsidiary, is expanding internationally, having established itself as a leading food delivery service in Hong Kong and covering all major cities in Saudi Arabia, with plans to enter the Brazilian market with a $1 billion investment over five years [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for Meituan from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 386.3 billion, 454.3 billion, and 526.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 18%, and 16% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 38.4 billion, 49.9 billion, and 60.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of -12%, 30%, and 22% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Insights - In Q4 2024, Meituan's total revenue reached 885 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 20%, slightly above consensus expectations by 0.6% [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 115 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year growth of 207%, but fell short of consensus expectations by 1.7% [5] - Adjusted net profit was 98 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 98%, which was in line with expectations [5] - Core local commerce revenue for Q4 2024 was 656 billion RMB, up 19% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations by 0.4% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 24%, also surpassing consensus expectations by 1.1% [5] Revenue Breakdown - Core local commerce revenue was 656 billion RMB with an operating profit of 129 billion RMB, up 61% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 10.6% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion RMB, with an operating loss of 22 billion RMB, which narrowed by 55% year-over-year [5][6] Business Expansion - Meituan's food delivery and flash purchase businesses are expanding, with transaction users exceeding 770 million and active merchants reaching 14.5 million, both hitting record highs [6] - The company launched a 1 billion RMB merchant support plan in Q4 2024 to enhance service quality and operational efficiency [5][6] - Flash purchase services have partnered with over 5,600 large retail chains and 570 brand merchants, covering over 200 cities with more than 30,000 warehouses [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 393 billion RMB, 454 billion RMB, and 521 billion RMB, with growth rates of 16%, 16%, and 15% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 48 billion RMB, 55 billion RMB, and 66 billion RMB, with growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 20% respectively [7] - The long-term outlook for Meituan remains positive due to its operational efficiency and business barriers [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Insights - In Q4 2024, Meituan's total revenue reached 885 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 20%, slightly above consensus expectations by 0.6% [5] - Adjusted EBITDA was 115 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 207%, but 1.7% below consensus expectations [5] - Adjusted net profit was 98 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 98%, aligning closely with expectations [5] - Core local commerce revenue for Q4 2024 was 656 billion CNY, up 19% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations by 0.4% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 24%, also above consensus expectations by 1.1% [5] Revenue Breakdown - Core local commerce revenue for Q4 2024 was 656 billion CNY, with an operating profit of 129 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 61% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 22 billion CNY, which is a 55% reduction in losses year-over-year [5][6] Business Expansion - Meituan's transaction user base exceeded 770 million, with active merchants increasing to 14.5 million, both reaching record highs [6] - The food delivery and Meituan Flash Purchase businesses are expanding rapidly, with a cash support plan of 1 billion CNY launched to assist merchants [6] - Meituan Flash Purchase has partnered with over 5,600 large retail chains and 410,000 local merchants, covering over 200 cities with more than 30,000 warehouses [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 393 billion CNY, 454 billion CNY, and 521 billion CNY, with growth rates of 16%, 16%, and 15% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are 48 billion CNY, 55 billion CNY, and 66 billion CNY, with growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 20% respectively [7] - The report maintains a long-term positive outlook on Meituan's operational efficiency and business barriers [7]