纺织服饰/饰品 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 2025 年 08 月 25 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.20 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 18.18/4.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 135.05 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 131.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.89 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.67 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 279.63 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 潮宏基 沪深300 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） 姚慕宇（联系人） yaomuyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125040021 2025H1 归母净利润同比+44.3%，产品升级和渠道扩张带动业绩向上 公司发布中报：2025H1 实现营收 41.02 亿元（同比+19.5%，下同）、归母净利润 3.31 亿元（+44.3%）；单 2025Q2 实现营收 18.50 亿元（+13.1% ...

2025.08. 24 本文字数：1102，阅读时长大约2分钟 出厂价10元左右的黄铜镀金首饰，在网上的直播间里被主播包装成所谓越南提纯沙金，一件首饰卖 到上百元。 "花小钱戴出大牌首饰的即视感，视觉效果堪比黄金。"今年以来，随着黄金价格持续上涨，市面上 涌现出来一批"沙金首饰"。 这类首饰外观酷似黄金、售价却不高，因而迅速受到热捧，被不少消费者视为黄金价格高企之下的平 替选择。 不过，由于电镀层较薄，长期佩戴使用过程中会逐渐磨损。 出厂价10元左右的黄铜镀金首饰，在网 上的直播间里被主播包装成所谓越南提纯沙金，一件首饰卖到上百元。 此前，新黄河也曾发布报道称，沙金是产于河流底层或低洼地带、与石沙混杂在一起，经过淘洗出来 的黄金。露在地面的金矿石，经过长期的风吹雨打后风化崩裂，金脱离了矿脉在泥沙中顺水而下并沉 积，形成沙金。虽然沙金给人一种天然黄金副产品的印象，但实际上，当前市面上销售的绝大多 数"沙金饰品"与真正的沙金并无关系。 6月25日，消费者陈女士在佩戴所谓"沙金"手链后，发现其竟能被磁铁吸起，于是借用光谱仪对饰 品进行了材料检测，结果发现该手链材质是铜镍合金，甚至含有铅、镍等潜在有害成分。媒体经过调 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pandora, once a beloved brand among young consumers, is now facing significant challenges in the Chinese market, leading to the decision to close 100 stores this year, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences and a lack of innovation from the brand [2][3][6]. Group 1: Store Closures and Market Performance - Pandora plans to double its store closure from an initial 50 to 100 in China, indicating a rapid contraction in its market presence [3]. - The brand has already closed 22 stores in the first half of 2025, with a total of 12 concept stores closed in Q2 2025 alone [4][6]. - As of August 20, 2025, Pandora has 187 stores in mainland China, down from over 250 at its peak in 2015 [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Pandora reported a revenue of 7.075 billion DKK, showing an organic growth of 8% globally, but the Chinese market continues to struggle [5][6]. - Revenue in the Chinese market has plummeted nearly 80% from 19.70 billion DKK in 2019 to 4.16 billion DKK in 2024, with comparable sales down 21% in 2024 and further declining in 2025 [6]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Brand Positioning - Consumers are increasingly viewing Pandora as outdated, with complaints about product quality and value retention, leading to a decline in emotional attachment to the brand [7][8]. - The brand's positioning as a "light luxury" option is under pressure, as younger consumers gravitate towards more valuable and personalized products, such as gold and trendy collectibles [8][9]. - Industry experts highlight that Pandora faces structural challenges in its business model, struggling to provide the emotional value of luxury goods while lacking the cost-effectiveness of mass-market products [9].

Group 1: Old Poo Gold's Performance - Old Poo Gold's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to reach between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 279% to 288% [1] - The company's sales revenue (including tax) is projected to be between 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 240% to 252% [2] - The growth is attributed to the expanding brand influence and continuous product optimization, with a focus on high-end traditional gold jewelry [2][3] Group 2: Market Expansion and Online Performance - Old Poo Gold has rapidly expanded its store presence, with over 30 new stores opened in major commercial centers and its first overseas store in Singapore [3][4] - The online sales performance is remarkable, with the company's Tmall flagship store achieving over 1 billion yuan in sales during the "618" shopping festival, marking a significant milestone in the jewelry sector [4] Group 3: Bubble Mart's Growth and Globalization - Bubble Mart's expected revenue for the first half of 2025 is 13.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.1 billion yuan, showcasing an impressive growth acceleration compared to the previous year [5] - The company has expanded its store count to over 180 in the Greater China and overseas markets, with a notable increase in international presence [5][6] - Organizational restructuring has been implemented to enhance local decision-making efficiency, supporting the company's global expansion strategy [6] Group 4: Emotional Consumption Trends - Both Old Poo Gold and Bubble Mart cater to the emotional and cultural needs of consumers, shifting from practical value to emotional satisfaction and cultural identity [8] - Old Poo Gold's handcrafted jewelry serves as a cultural symbol, while Bubble Mart's IP products resonate with the emotional needs of Generation Z [8] Group 5: Market Outlook and Future Directions - Analysts have expressed positive outlooks for both companies, with Old Poo Gold receiving a "buy" rating and a target price of 1,084 HKD, while Bubble Mart has a target price of 340 HKD [9][10] - Both companies are focusing on international expansion and product innovation, with Old Poo Gold's overseas stores performing better than expected and Bubble Mart exploring content creation through a film studio [11]

Core Viewpoint - Laopu Gold is expected to achieve significant sales growth in the first half of 2025, with projected sales reaching 14.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 252%, and adjusted net profit expected to be 2.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 292% [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance and Growth Drivers - Laopu Gold's strong performance is attributed to the continuous expansion of brand influence, leading to substantial growth in both online and offline store revenues [3]. - The company has seen an average revenue of nearly 500 million yuan per store in the first half of the year, supported by the opening of new stores and optimization of existing ones [1][4]. - The launch of several new products, including the "Flower Silk Diamond Pendant" and "Mandala Series Pendant," has enhanced the brand's creative and craftsmanship capabilities, meeting diverse consumer demands [3][4]. Group 2: Market Position and Consumer Trends - Laopu Gold is positioned as a high-end brand, often referred to as the "Hermès of gold," targeting affluent consumers with products priced between 10,000 to 250,000 yuan, contributing significantly to revenue [6]. - The brand's unique selling proposition lies in its promotion of ancient gold-making techniques, which adds cultural value to its products [5]. - The high-end consumer market is undergoing structural transformation, with a noticeable preference for jewelry that offers higher product value, reflecting changing consumer attitudes towards culture and aesthetics [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - Laopu Gold's stock has shown strong performance, reaching over 1,100 HKD per share earlier this year, although it has recently declined to 738 HKD [6]. - Analysts have differing views on the company's future earnings, with expectations ranging from 4 billion to 6 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a potential growth of 170% to 300% [7]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding short-term risks such as gold price fluctuations and potential profit-taking by shareholders [7].

Core Viewpoint - Laopuhuang is experiencing significant growth, with projected sales of 14.3 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 2.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 252% and 292% respectively, indicating a strong market position for Chinese brands in the luxury sector [1][3]. Company Overview - Founded in 2009, Laopuhuang is a leading brand in China promoting the "ancient method gold" concept and specializes in handcrafted gold jewelry [3]. - The brand leverages classic culture, intangible heritage craftsmanship, original design, and asymmetric strategic advantages to disrupt traditional industry norms and reshape market dynamics [3]. - Innovations in gold crafting techniques, such as "solid gold inlay" and "solid gold enamel," enhance product appeal by combining cultural heritage with international and fashionable elements [3]. Performance Highlights - Laopuhuang's anticipated performance for the first half of 2025 is attributed to the expanding brand influence and significant market advantages, resulting in substantial revenue growth across both online and offline stores [3][6]. - The brand's continuous product optimization and new launches have also contributed to sustained revenue increases [3]. - During the 2023 Spring Festival, Laopuhuang generated remarkable foot traffic in major commercial centers, further boosting its strong performance [3]. - The brand achieved a record-breaking sales figure of over 1 billion yuan during the Tmall 618 shopping festival, marking a significant milestone in the jewelry sector [3]. Market Position and Trends - Morgan Stanley's report highlights the competitive threat posed by Laopuhuang to traditional luxury brands, suggesting that its strong performance could challenge the long-held perception that European luxury brands are immune to local competition [4]. - Laopuhuang is rapidly expanding its presence in high-end domestic and international markets, having entered over 30 major commercial centers [6]. - The brand's recent openings, including a flagship store in Singapore's Marina Bay Sands, have exceeded expectations, indicating strong international demand [6]. - Analysts note a structural shift in luxury consumption trends, with consumers increasingly favoring high-value jewelry, reflecting a growing preference for cultural and aesthetic brand values among high-net-worth individuals [6].

Core Insights - The rise of crystal products is driven by their aesthetic appeal, perceived emotional value, and the influence of celebrities and social media, making them a new trend among young consumers [1][3][13] Group 1: Market Trends - Crystal products have gained immense popularity, with significant engagement on social media platforms, such as 34.2 billion views on Xiaohongshu and 46.1 billion views on Douyin [4][12] - The crystal market is expanding, with the industry transaction value surpassing 46 billion yuan in 2024, and over 7,000 companies involved in crystal sales [12][17] - The global crystal jewelry market is projected to reach $22.83 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.5% [17] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers, particularly those aged 18-30, account for 80% of crystal sales, with a significant female demographic [13][16] - The emotional value associated with crystals, such as their perceived ability to bring good luck or alleviate anxiety, drives consumer interest [13][14] Group 3: Celebrity Influence - Celebrities and influencers play a crucial role in promoting crystal products, with notable figures like Yi Nengjing and Xu Yiyang leading successful live-stream sales [6][9][10] - Yi Nengjing's live-stream event featured 15 crystal products, generating an estimated sales revenue of 5.39 million yuan, highlighting the financial potential of crystal live-streaming [9] Group 4: Pricing and Quality Concerns - The crystal market faces challenges related to pricing inconsistencies and the prevalence of counterfeit products, with some sellers using deceptive practices to inflate prices [18][19] - The average profit margin for legitimate crystal sales is around 20-30%, but can reach 70% for counterfeit items, indicating a significant risk for consumers [18] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of crystal live-streaming may shift towards high-end customization and artistic pieces, moving away from purely emotional consumption [17] - The industry must address issues of transparency, quality control, and consumer trust to sustain growth and maintain a positive reputation [19]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum prices has led to a shift in market dynamics, with businesses increasingly focusing on platinum jewelry over gold due to higher profitability and changing consumer preferences [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Platinum has seen a cumulative increase of over 35% since the beginning of the year, outperforming gold's year-to-date growth [2]. - The price of platinum has recently surpassed 320 yuan per gram, rising nearly 50 yuan in just over two weeks [2]. - Many jewelry stores in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market are reducing their gold inventory in favor of platinum, indicating a significant market shift [2][4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - While gold jewelry remains popular, there is a growing interest in platinum among consumers, driven by its lower price point and aesthetic appeal [4]. - The convenience and transparency of the recycling mechanism for gold jewelry are key factors in consumer preference, although similar mechanisms exist for platinum [4][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global platinum supply decreased by 10% year-on-year in the first quarter, totaling 45.3 tons, while demand increased by 10% to 70.7 tons, indicating a projected shortage of 30 tons for the year [8]. - China has surpassed North America to become the largest retail investment market for platinum globally [8]. Group 4: Economic Influences - The recent price increases for platinum and silver are attributed to heightened long-term demand expectations for precious metals, rising global inflation pressures, and increasing interest rate forecasts [9]. - Analysts note that platinum's market is smaller and less liquid compared to gold, which may affect investment strategies [9].

Group 1 - The "618" e-commerce promotion has concluded, with multiple platforms reporting record-high order numbers from participating users [1] - JD.com reported that as of June 18, 23:59, the number of orders on its platform during "618" increased by over 100% year-on-year, leading the industry, with total orders exceeding 2.2 billion [1] - Alibaba's Tmall simplified its promotional strategies, achieving double-digit growth in the number of purchasing users throughout the "618" period, with beauty, apparel, home appliances, and 3C digital products leading in transaction scale and growth [1] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" policy, combined with platform discounts and national subsidies, significantly boosted sales in categories like computers, home appliances, and home decor during "618," with photography equipment achieving nearly 100 million yuan in sales and a year-on-year growth of 22.55% [1] - Consumers are increasingly replacing high-energy-consuming old products with smart, low-carbon new ones, reflecting a dual win for the "replacement trend" and "environmental protection" [2] - The "618" and "Double 11" promotions serve as critical windows for observing emerging industry trends, with categories like trendy toys, jewelry, pets, and alcoholic beverages showing high growth during this year's "618" [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a surge in consumer stocks, with notable companies reaching historical highs and significant market valuations, reflecting the unique appeal of the Hong Kong consumer sector characterized by high growth, strong brand power, and valuation opportunities [1] - The influx of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks is driven by the narrative of asset revaluation in China, improving market liquidity, and a favorable policy environment, positioning the Hong Kong consumer sector as a new battleground for global capital [1] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - The consumer market is witnessing a revival, with increased foot traffic in shopping areas, packed cinemas, and a surge in online shopping, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [2] - During the recent Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 119 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9%, showcasing the recovery across various sectors including hospitality and transportation [2] Group 3: Policy Support - The Chinese government has prioritized boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand in its economic agenda, with comprehensive measures outlined in the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" to enhance consumer confidence and spending [3][4] Group 4: Emerging Consumer Trends - The rise of "self-care consumption" reflects a shift in consumer behavior, particularly among the Z generation, who prioritize emotional satisfaction and personal well-being in their purchasing decisions [5][6] - Emotional consumption, driven by the need for emotional fulfillment rather than just practical utility, is becoming increasingly popular, with key demands including self-care, value realization, personal expression, and emotional satisfaction [9][10] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Hong Kong - The Hong Kong stock market is becoming a preferred destination for new consumer companies due to its more lenient listing requirements and the government's supportive measures for domestic companies seeking to list abroad [11] - The National Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme has shown a cumulative increase of 32.3% in 2024, outperforming other consumer indices, indicating strong growth potential in the sector [15]