Core Viewpoint - The Perssons family, the founders of H&M, is reportedly moving towards privatizing the brand, having increased their stake to nearly 64% through significant investments since 2016, which raises concerns for minority shareholders [1][4]. Group 1: Shareholder Dynamics - The Perssons currently hold 70% of H&M's capital and 85% of voting rights, making it nearly impossible for minority shareholders to oppose any privatization efforts [1]. - The Swedish Shareholders' Association has expressed skepticism about H&M's management transparency and the need for clearer communication regarding privatization plans [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - H&M's Q1 2025 financial results showed a 2% year-on-year sales increase to 55.33 billion SEK (approximately 40.2 billion RMB), slightly below analyst expectations [4][5]. - Gross profit for the quarter was 27.17 billion SEK (approximately 37.4 billion RMB), with an operating profit of 1.20 billion SEK (approximately 870 million RMB), significantly lower than the market forecast of 1.9 billion SEK [5][6]. - The operating margin fell to 2.2%, down from 3.9% in the previous year, indicating a decline in profitability [5][6]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Adjustments - H&M has been adjusting its market strategy in China, including the renovation of flagship stores and the reopening of its first store in Shanghai with nearly double the previous size [8]. - The company has also closed some locations, such as the & Other Stories store in Beijing, which focuses on more design-oriented and sustainable products [10]. - H&M's mid-range brand COS is reportedly restarting its expansion in the Chinese market after a two-year hiatus [12]. Group 4: Stock Performance - H&M's stock price has been on a downward trend, falling from 148.75 SEK per share (approximately 111.08 RMB) at the beginning of the year to 137.40 SEK (approximately 102.60 RMB) by June 6, with a low of 122.90 SEK (approximately 91.77 RMB) during this period [6].

【食饮 】换季消费及成长 投资建议：结构分化，重视成长。 大众品首选新消费、高成长，白酒周期寻底，配置价值凸显。 白酒：分化加剧，更加理性。 25Q2 产业景气度仍在寻底，头部公司淡季韧性凸显。 与 2012-14 年的行业调整期相比，本轮周期需求和预期的调整烈度相 对较小、但调整周期明显拉长。上一轮白酒行业调整呈 V 型，行业出清速度快；本轮调整更像 U 型，调整幅度相对较小，目前仍在筑底阶段。 我们认为 短 期股价走势已基本反应市场悲观预期，伴随政策预期回暖白酒板块有望迎来一轮估值修复。 啤酒 & 饮料：啤酒有望修复，饮料结构繁荣。 啤酒旺季将至、经营环比改善； 饮料仍处于单品势能释放阶段。 大众品：表现分化，结构性增长。 新消费趋势延续，首选高成长。我们认为休闲食品结构性红利明显，魔芋制品打开第二成长曲线， 头部企业成长性凸显 ； 调味品、乳制品 收入边际改善， 竞争格局优化可期 。 风险提示： 经济复苏不及预期；市场竞争加剧；成本上涨；出现食品安全问题。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 换季消费及成长 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版报告。 趋势：老树焕新芽、产品 ...

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