证券研究报告 颖通控股 (6883 HK) 全渠道精耕的香水品牌管理商 2025 年 11 月 11 日│中国香港 化妆品 首次覆盖颖通控股并给予买入评级，目标价 2.86 港币，对应 14X FY26E PE。 颖通控股为中国领先的高端香水品牌管理商，产品矩阵丰富，截至 FY25 末 已为 73 个外部品牌提供分销及市场部署服务。我们认为公司有望受益于高 端消费复苏及香水香氛渗透率提升带来的需求增长红利；供给端看，公司全 渠道多品牌发力实现产品供给广泛覆盖，一线以下城市市场仍有发展潜力。 展望未来，公司旗下品牌矩阵持续扩充，龙头地位有望再度夯实；计划发力 自营零售店及自有品牌，有望带来收入及利润端新增长点。 香水行业：线上线下动态共生，渗透率仍待提高 香水隶属于情绪价值品类，感官体验及场景联想为购买决策重要一环，线上 线下渠道动态共生。2024 年中国香水市场规模 265 亿元，19-24 年 CAGR 达 15.1%，高于同期全球预期增速 3.5%（F&S）。当前国内香水品牌仍以 海外奢品大牌为主（24 年占比超 50%，欧睿）；国内优质供给稀缺且认知 壁垒需长时间培育，需求端渗透率较欧洲/美国有较大提升 ...

Core Insights - The fragrance market is expanding, and the brand Wenxian is accelerating its offline channel development by opening new stores, including a recent one in Wuhan [1][2] - Wenxian has opened at least 25 stores nationwide and plans to expand to 35 by the end of this year, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1][2] - The brand targets the high-consumption "Generation Z" demographic, with product prices ranging from 450 to 2250 yuan [2] Market Overview - The Chinese fragrance market was valued at 24.9 billion yuan last year and is projected to exceed 33.9 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 8% from 2024 to 2028 [2] - The number of fragrance-related enterprises in China has surpassed 328,000, with 97,000 new registrations in 2023, reflecting a decade-long growth trend [2] Competitive Landscape - Wenxian faces significant competition, particularly from established players like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder, which are expanding their high-end fragrance portfolios [3] - L'Oréal's recent acquisition of Creed and other luxury brands indicates a restructuring in the high-end fragrance market, posing challenges for emerging brands like Wenxian [3]

Core Insights - The fragrance market is experiencing significant growth, with the brand Wenxian rapidly expanding its offline presence by opening new stores [2][3] - Wenxian aims to target the high-spending Generation Z demographic, with product prices ranging from 450 to 2250 yuan [3] - The overall fragrance market in China is projected to grow from 24.9 billion yuan in 2024 to over 33.9 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 8% [3] Company Expansion - Wenxian has opened at least 25 stores across various cities, including Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu, with plans to reach a total of 35 stores by the end of the year [2] - The brand's rapid expansion is likely influenced by market conditions and potential investments, as new brands typically enter a growth phase once they gain market recognition [2][3] Market Dynamics - The fragrance market is thriving despite a general slowdown in cosmetic consumption, with over 328,000 fragrance-related companies currently registered in China [3] - The first quarter of 2025 saw fragrance imports surpass body care products, making it the second-largest category of cosmetic imports in the country [3] Competitive Landscape - Wenxian faces challenges from established competitors like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder, which have made significant acquisitions and hold strong positions in the high-end fragrance market [4][5] - The brand's focus on "experiential marketing" through offline stores is seen as a key competitive advantage, although the high costs associated with store operations present a challenge for return on investment [4]

Core Insights - The "Paris–Shanghai Perfume Show" marks a significant milestone for the Chinese perfume industry, showcasing its first large-scale collective presence in France, indicating a move towards globalization [1][12] - The event serves as a bridge for cultural exchange between Chinese and international fragrance markets, helping overseas brands understand the Chinese market while assisting Chinese brands in entering the global stage [3][12] Group 1: Event Overview - The exhibition featured over 20 Chinese local perfume brands, including emerging creators and award-winning works, highlighting the originality and cultural expression of Chinese perfumers [4][12] - The event facilitated initial connections between participating brands and buyers/distributors from France and Europe, laying a foundation for future commercial cooperation and market expansion [4][12] Group 2: Industry Discussions - Sixteen industry conferences and roundtable forums were held, gathering experts, creators, and observers to analyze challenges, trends, and prospects in both Chinese and international perfume markets [6] - Topics discussed included market overview and strategic potential, social media and digital ecology, regulatory interpretations, new aesthetics and design trends, and the cross-cultural evolution of olfactory culture [6] Group 3: Cultural Exchange - A special exhibition titled "Culture From The East" focused on contemporary Chinese brands in the beauty and lifestyle sectors, exploring how they reshape cultural narratives through modern design and global language [6] - The event also featured a cross-border fragrance experience in Shanghai, showcasing the artistic universe of the Parisian brand Diptyque, enhancing cultural dialogue between China and France [7][10] Group 4: Future Prospects - The "Paris–Shanghai Perfume Show" is positioned as a pivotal opportunity for Chinese brands to transition from "invited participants" to "leading curators" in the global fragrance dialogue [12][13] - The upcoming "Scent Shanghai 2025" exhibition in Shanghai will further expand the international presence of Chinese perfume brands, with over 200 premium fragrance brands and 100 global beauty brands expected to participate [13]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the Chinese perfume and fragrance industry, highlighting its resilience and growth potential in the face of global market fluctuations [10][11][12]. Core Insights - The Chinese perfume and fragrance industry is experiencing a transformation from "transactional purchasing" to "value resonance consumption," where consumers prioritize emotional connections and cultural narratives over mere product functionality [10][25]. - The market is witnessing a significant shift towards emotional and experiential consumption, particularly in lower-tier cities, which are becoming key growth drivers due to their untapped potential [12][33]. - International brands are increasingly localizing their strategies to resonate with Chinese consumers, while domestic brands are focusing on deepening their presence in the local market and exploring global opportunities [40][46]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Resilient Growth of the Chinese Consumer Market - The report decodes the "ice-fire resilience" of the Chinese consumer market, driven by policy stimulation and inherent growth dynamics, particularly in lower-tier cities [18][19]. - The retail sales growth rate of consumer goods has shown a positive trend, with a peak in May 2025, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment [21][25]. - The shift from survival consumption to development-oriented consumption is emphasized, with a focus on enhancing the quality and cultural aspects of products [25][26]. Part 2: Evolution of the Chinese Perfume and Fragrance Market - The Chinese perfume market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2024 to 2028, reaching a market size of 33.9 billion yuan [58][59]. - The report highlights the dual leadership of the Chinese market, where local beauty brands demonstrate resilience alongside global growth engines [56][58]. - The concept of the "olfactory economy" is emerging, where fragrances extend beyond traditional products to become integral to lifestyle experiences [65][66]. Part 3: Consumer Behavior Insights in the Chinese Perfume Market - There is a notable increase in interest among consumers in lower-tier cities, indicating a growing market for fragrances [14][33]. - The report identifies a trend of personalized scent experiences, where consumers seek unique olfactory identities [36][39]. - The evolving consumer landscape is characterized by a shift towards emotional and experiential connections with brands [52][53]. Part 4: Product Development Trends in the Chinese Perfume Market - The industry is moving towards a new era of fragrances that integrate sensory experiences into daily life, emphasizing lifestyle solutions [47][48]. - The report discusses the evolution of fragrance products, highlighting the importance of cultural narratives and emotional connections in product development [15][16]. Part 5: Marketing Development Trends in the Chinese Perfume Market - Marketing strategies are evolving to focus on emotional resonance and cultural narratives, moving from symbolic consumption to value co-creation [16][55]. - The integration of digital platforms and experiential marketing is reshaping how brands connect with consumers [16][55]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the Chinese perfume and fragrance market is poised for robust growth, driven by emotional consumption trends, the awakening of lower-tier markets, and the collaborative efforts of international and domestic brands [51][54].

Core Insights - The Chinese perfume market is poised for significant growth, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%, leading to a market size exceeding 33.9 billion yuan by 2028 [1] Market Dynamics - The global perfume market is expected to grow at a rate of 4% to 6% over the next four years, with China showing a high single-digit growth rate [1] - International brands dominate the all-channel perfume market, particularly in online platforms like Taobao and JD, while domestic brands are gaining traction on Douyin, where they hold a significant share of the top 20 rankings [2][3] - The competition landscape reveals two growth paths for brands: one focuses on deep cultural expression and product value, while the other relies on quick responses to emerging consumer needs [2] Domestic Brand Growth - The number of registered fragrance companies in China has exceeded 200 annually for five consecutive years, with local brands like Guanya and Wenxian gaining recognition and investment [3] - Domestic beauty companies are entering the perfume sector, with notable launches and revenue growth in the fragrance category [3] - Local brands benefit from a complete beauty supply chain, allowing for efficient production and cost control, although they still lag behind international brands in research and development [3] Consumer Trends - There is a shift in consumer demand from functional products to those that offer emotional connections, indicating a high growth potential in the Chinese market [4] - The penetration rate in lower-tier cities presents significant growth opportunities, as these markets are awakening and showing higher sales growth compared to first-tier cities [4][5] - The male fragrance market is identified as a substantial growth area, with consumers increasingly purchasing complementary products like home fragrances and body lotions [5] Technological Advancements - AI technology is transforming the fragrance industry by enhancing research and development processes, improving consumer experience, and streamlining retail operations [6] - AI can analyze vast amounts of data to predict trends and consumer preferences, aiding perfumers in creating popular scents [6] - Intelligent fragrance recommendations through AI can significantly boost online purchasing confidence by addressing the challenge of trying scents virtually [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global fragrance market is expected to maintain a growth rate of 4% to 6% over the next four years, with China's fragrance market projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2024 to 2028, indicating a strong trend in the fragrance sector despite overall pressure on the beauty industry [2][6]. Industry Overview - The fragrance segment has shown resilience, with companies like Estée Lauder and L'Oréal reporting growth in their fragrance businesses amidst declines in other product lines [6]. - The Chinese fragrance market is anticipated to exceed 33.9 billion yuan by 2028, with a 3.6% year-on-year growth in fragrance sales in the offline market for 2024, contrasting with a 7.9% decline in overall beauty sales [6]. Company Insights - Ying Tong Holdings, listed in Hong Kong, has faced market skepticism since its IPO, primarily due to its heavy reliance on brand agency agreements, with a significant portion of its brand authorizations expiring within a year [3][4]. - As of May 31, Ying Tong managed 72 external brands, with its own brand revenue accounting for less than 1% in Q1 of this year [4]. - The CEO of Ying Tong indicated plans to enhance their own brand, Santa Monica, through product refinement and potential partnerships or acquisitions to scale up [4]. Market Dynamics - The fragrance market is increasingly influenced by the "scent economy," with a notable rise in male fragrance consumption, which is expected to grow from 37.1% in 2023 to 40.1% in 2024 [5][7]. - The competition among brands is intensifying, with international brands still dominating the market, while domestic brands are beginning to emerge [8][9]. Future Trends - The white paper indicates that the consumer base for fragrances is shifting, with a significant increase in the proportion of fragrance users in first-tier cities [7]. - Ying Tong's strategy for introducing new brands focuses on proven success in foreign markets, product quality, and the willingness of brand owners to adapt to the Chinese market [9].

Group 1 - The launch of the variety show "Flowers and Youth 7" has sparked interest in traditional Chinese incense, highlighting the cultural significance of incense in China [2] - The fragrance industry is evolving from "scent trading" to "value resonance consumption," where consumers express emotions and cultural identity through scents [4][5] - The report by Ying Tong Group and Deloitte indicates that the fragrance market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size exceeding 33.9 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 8% [6][10] Group 2 - The fragrance market in China is showing resilience compared to other beauty segments, with a continuous growth rate of 3.7% in offline sales since 2025 [8] - The report identifies five major opportunities in the fragrance market, including the growth potential in second-tier cities and the increasing demand for men's fragrances [15] - The rise of domestic brands is shifting the focus from mere cultural symbols to deeper cultural connections, as brands seek to resonate with modern consumers [17][18] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of multi-sensory experiences in fragrance consumption, with trends indicating a shift towards integrating scents into various lifestyle scenarios [20][23] - The boundaries between fragrance categories are becoming blurred, with a growing trend of niche brands entering the mainstream market [24][26] - Ying Tong Group's operational strategy involves a brand matrix approach, ensuring that over 70 brands are effectively managed and marketed across different channels [28]

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese consumer market despite global fluctuations, with strong growth potential particularly in lower-tier cities [2][4] - A shift towards "value resonance consumption" is identified, where consumers prioritize emotional connections over mere product functionality, driving growth in the fragrance sector [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable competitive advantages for brands in a more mature and rational market environment [4][6] Market Dynamics - The retail sales growth of consumer goods has been steadily recovering since 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [2] - The emergence of seasoned consumers, such as quality-focused buyers and fragrance enthusiasts, is shaping market trends [4] - The fragrance category is experiencing robust growth due to its unique emotional connection attributes and significant market penetration potential [4] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more self-aware and confident, leading to a transformation in the fragrance market landscape [4] - The increasing market education is solidifying consumer understanding of fragrances, paving the way for a new growth cycle [2][4] Marketing Strategies - Successful marketing in 2025 will require a combination of insights, strategy, and tactics, focusing on understanding deep market needs and localizing operations [6] - Brands must establish deep emotional connections with consumers to thrive in the evolving market [4][6] Industry Outlook - The release of the white paper marks a significant milestone in documenting the growth and changes in China's olfactory economy [6] - The insights gathered aim to foster industry development and create more resilient growth pathways [6]

Core Insights - The global perfume market is expected to maintain a growth rate of 4% to 6% over the next four years, with China's market projected to grow even faster at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2024 to 2028 [2][7]. Company Overview - Ying Tong Holdings (06883.HK) became the "first stock" in the perfume sector after its IPO in June, but has faced market skepticism due to its heavy reliance on brand agency and low revenue from self-owned brands [2][5]. - As of March 31, Ying Tong Holdings had 22 brand authorizations expiring within a year, raising concerns as many luxury brands are shifting to self-operated models [5]. Market Trends - The perfume segment has shown resilience amid overall pressure on the beauty industry, with companies like Estée Lauder and L'Oréal reporting growth in their fragrance divisions despite declines in other product lines [6]. - The Chinese market is expected to surpass 33.9 billion yuan by 2028, with a 3.6% year-on-year growth in perfume sales, contrasting with a 7.9% decline in overall beauty sales [7]. Competitive Landscape - International brands continue to dominate the market, with Ying Tong Holdings introducing up to 10 new brands annually while evaluating over 100 potential brands each year [10][11]. - Domestic brands like "Guanxia" and "Wenxian" are emerging, but they have yet to make a significant impact in the top perfume rankings [11]. Consumer Behavior - The "scent economy" is on the rise, with increasing opportunities in second-tier and lower-tier markets, as well as a growing demand for men's fragrances [6][7]. - By 2025, over 50% of fragrance consumers in first-tier cities are expected to be part of the advanced consumer group, indicating a shift in market demographics [7].