Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive time during the July meeting [1] - Barclays anticipates at least one dissenting vote in the upcoming decision, with a possibility of two dissenting votes, indicating growing internal divisions within the FOMC [1] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman have expressed support for rate cuts, citing inflation nearing the 2% target and signs of labor market weakness [1] Group 2 - The June meeting minutes reveal that some officials still prefer to keep rates unchanged for the year, with Barclays predicting a 25 basis point cut in December [2] - Deutsche Bank shares a similar outlook, forecasting two additional rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - UBS believes that the FOMC's collective decision-making will remain stable despite potential changes in leadership, although upcoming departures may tilt the voting structure towards a dovish stance [2] Group 3 - Market analysts note that tariff policies are increasing prices for trade-sensitive goods, contributing to inflationary pressures [2] - UBS is optimistic about high-rated bonds and gold allocations, projecting a year-end target price of $3,500 per ounce for gold [2] - The dollar is expected to stabilize after recent fluctuations, with a year-end target of 1.21 for the euro against the dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - Several major commercial banks, including ICBC, CCB, and CMB, have recently suspended the issuance of 5-year large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs), indicating a shift in the banking sector's strategy to manage funding costs and stabilize net interest margins [1][3]. Group 1: Banking Sector Changes - The suspension of 5-year large-denomination CDs is a response to the current low net interest margin in the banking industry, as banks seek to reduce funding costs by limiting high-cost deposit products [1]. - The overall trend shows a significant decline in deposit rates, with major banks leading the way in reducing rates, resulting in a new environment where medium- to long-term deposit rates have entered the "1%" era [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies for Investors - With the reduction of long-term savings options, investors are encouraged to diversify their wealth management strategies, focusing on short-term, medium-term, and long-term financial goals based on their financial situation and risk tolerance [4]. - Experts recommend adopting a "fixed income plus" strategy, which includes allocating to medium- and short-term bond funds, while also considering global asset allocation to capture growth opportunities [4]. - Investors are advised to maintain a dynamic rebalancing mechanism to adjust asset allocations based on economic conditions and market valuations, ensuring an effective balance between risk and return [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. banking sector anticipates a significant increase in high-rated bond supply in May, reaching up to $150 billion, which is higher than the approximately $104 billion issued in April, reflecting a decrease of about $15 billion from expectations [1] Group 1 - The expected high-rated bond supply for May is projected to be $150 billion [1] - The April issuance was approximately $104 billion, which was about $15 billion lower than anticipated [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs Private Credit Corp. issued $1 billion in high-rated bonds [1] - Among the bonds, $600 million has a maturity of five years, priced at a premium of 2.5 percentage points over comparable U.S. Treasury yields [1] - Initial discussions for the premium were at 2.85 percentage points [1]