安泰科技 20251211 摘要 安泰科技 2025 年通过价格让步保市场份额，虽扣非归母净利润因去年 股权转让款影响下降，但实际扣非规模稳定增长超 20%，公司对完成全 年目标具信心。各产业整体向上，受益于国产替代和产业升级，预计未 来 2-3 年营收和归母净利润增速稳定在 40%左右。 受贸易摩擦和关税影响，安泰科技上半年出口业务受阻，下半年恢复。 为保国内市场份额，公司采取降价策略，并向下游传导成本压力，提高 钨产品、高速钢等价格。10 月整体订单合同保持增长，营收虽波动，仍 在预期内。 安泰科技获得的出口许可证有效期较短，份额不如行业头部企业。公司 产能 1 万吨，实际产量近 6 千吨，成品销售约 5 千吨。公司正积极与商 务部和相关协会沟通，争取未来发展机会。 出口业务占安泰科技整体业务比重不高，约 35%，对美欧市场出口约占 20%。公司第二增长曲线围绕金属有色材料主业展开，通过国家课题和 自主立项进行技术积累，如粉末高速钢领域已取得显著进展。 南诏乌木板块应用历史悠久，受益于国产化进程加快，但下游应用端不 会突然大面积增加，预计可能阶段性快速增长，长期维持高增速具挑战。 IGBT 模块应用推动热 ...

Core Insights - The company has over 40 years of experience in the special steel industry and has successfully transformed from a cutting tool manufacturer to a leading international high-end materials enterprise covering four major segments: high-speed steel, tool steel, cutting tools, and titanium alloys [1] - The company exhibits strong profitability and effective cost management, with stable gross and net profit margins, and maintains high R&D investment to support long-term growth [1] - The tool steel segment is a cornerstone for the company, holding the largest global market share in tool steel and high-speed steel, providing stable cash flow and strong risk resistance [1] - The titanium alloy business is positioned to capture emerging demand in high-value sectors, particularly in consumer electronics, which is expected to drive future revenue growth despite short-term demand fluctuations [2] - Powder metallurgy technology is identified as a foundational capability for entering strategic new materials and high-end manufacturing sectors, potentially enhancing both performance and valuation [3] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in the coming years, with projections of revenues reaching 49.41 billion, 56.99 billion, and 65.45 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 4.31 billion, 6.20 billion, and 8.50 billion yuan [4] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 2.2%, 15.3%, and 14.8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The expected net profit growth rates are 20.0%, 43.9%, and 37.2% for the same years [4] - The company’s 2026 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is estimated at 12X, which is below the industry average PE of 37X, indicating potential undervaluation [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the global tool steel sector, with a solid foundation for sustainable profitability. It has made breakthroughs in powder metallurgy and titanium alloy technologies, positioning itself in high-growth sectors such as integrated die-casting for electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and aerospace, establishing a clear second growth curve [6][9]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 49.41 billion, 56.99 billion, and 65.45 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.2%, 15.3%, and 14.8%. Corresponding net profits are projected at 4.31 billion, 6.20 billion, and 8.50 billion RMB, with growth rates of 20.0%, 43.9%, and 37.2% [6][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 28, 2025, the closing price is 3.05 HKD, with a market capitalization of 8,311.25 million HKD. The stock has seen a one-year high of 3.28 HKD and a low of 1.65 HKD [3]. Business Overview - The company has been in the special steel industry for over 40 years, evolving from a cutting tool manufacturer to a leader in high-end materials, covering high-speed steel, tool steel, cutting tools, and titanium alloys [8][18]. - The company has a concentrated and stable shareholding structure, with the Zhu family as the actual controllers, ensuring strategic execution continuity [8][17]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 5,163.31 million RMB in 2023, with a projected decline in 2024 followed by a recovery in subsequent years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have remained stable, supported by high R&D investment [7][31]. - The first half of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 7.1% year-on-year, attributed to reduced exports and lower demand from consumer electronics. However, net profit increased by 10.4% due to favorable currency exchange rates and improved gross margins in tool steel [22][23]. Growth Drivers - The company’s core business in tool steel is expected to enter an upward cycle, driven by domestic demand recovery and import substitution in high-end materials [8][22]. - The titanium alloy business is positioned to benefit from expanding demand in consumer electronics and aerospace, with significant growth potential as the market evolves [8][37]. Technological Advancements - The company has successfully established a powder metallurgy production line, filling a domestic gap in the large-scale production of tool steel, and is expected to lead in domestic substitution efforts [15][18]. - Ongoing R&D efforts have resulted in numerous innovations, including high-nitrogen alloy materials and advanced titanium products, enhancing the company's competitive edge in high-end manufacturing [31][34].

Summary of Tian Gong International Conference Call Company Overview - Tian Gong International focuses on high-end equipment materials, including tool steel, high-speed steel, cutting tools, and titanium alloys, with product prices significantly higher than ordinary alloy steels, targeting the high-end market and entering downstream applications such as new energy vehicles [2][3][10] Key Points and Arguments Growth Potential - The company's future growth hinges on breakthroughs in powder materials technology, which could replace traditional materials. The selling price of powder materials is approximately 7.5 times that of traditional materials, with potential annual revenue of 1.5 billion RMB if 10,000 tons of production capacity is achieved [2][3][10] - The stock price has increased by about 50% from 2 RMB to nearly 3 RMB since mid-August, reflecting market confidence in the company's growth logic and potential [3][10] Nuclear Fusion Sector - Tian Gong International is actively involved in the nuclear fusion sector, participating in key projects like the Shanghai HL-4 and Hefei EAST, with leading advantages in critical materials such as low-activation martensitic steel [2][5][7] - The company has developed boron steel and low-activation martensitic steel, with significant revenue potential from these materials in nuclear fusion applications, estimated to bring in tens of millions to billions of RMB [5][7] Demand in Humanoid Robotics - There is a strong demand for powder steel materials in the humanoid robotics sector, particularly for manufacturing screw and harmonic reducers. The company has partnered with several enterprises and received government validation, indicating a promising market outlook [2][8] Titanium Alloy Market - The titanium alloy market is expected to grow significantly, especially with potential increased usage in Apple's future products. The company is also investing in 3D printing technology for titanium alloys to reduce costs and enhance competitiveness [2][9] Additional Important Insights - The company's current valuation is low, with a TTM P/E ratio of about 1, and management has been actively buying shares, indicating confidence in future growth [3][10][11] - The company is positioned across multiple high-potential sectors, including nuclear fusion, humanoid robotics, and titanium alloys, which could lead to substantial business growth and profitability [11][12] - Upcoming developments in the second half of the year, including new projects in nuclear fusion and humanoid robotics, are expected to drive positive momentum for the company [13][14] Investment Outlook - The current investment climate is favorable, with expectations for the company's stock price to potentially double. The projected valuation for 2026 is between 15 to 20 times earnings, indicating significant upside potential [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance aligns with expectations, showing a mixed trend in product sales and profitability, with a focus on high-end product development and future growth potential in titanium alloy and powder metallurgy sectors [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H25 was 2.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 204 million yuan, an increase of 6.8%, meeting expectations [1] - Product sales showed slight declines: high-speed steel, mold steel, and cutting tools saw decreases of 10.4%, 5.2%, and 20.4% respectively, while titanium alloy sales increased by 65.2% [1] - The gross margin for high-speed steel and mold steel improved due to rising raw material prices, with high-speed steel's price and margin increasing by 0.9% and 1.5 percentage points to 54,090 yuan and 15.6% respectively [1] Product Trends - Titanium alloy prices and gross margins decreased by 45.1% and 14.8 percentage points to 76,716 yuan and 24.2% respectively, attributed to adjustments in 3C product order structures [2] - The company is advancing its high-end transformation strategy, expecting significant profit contributions from titanium alloy business post-2024, with enhanced melting technology and increased competitiveness [2] - Powder metallurgy products are anticipated to see continued growth, with the company being a leading supplier in this sector, leveraging its manufacturing capabilities and exploring new applications [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to uncertainties in export business for 2H25, the company's 2025 net profit forecast has been reduced by 24.3% to 366 million yuan, while a new forecast for 2026 is introduced at 538 million yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to 17.0x and 11.4x P/E for 2025 and 2026 estimates respectively, with a target price increase of 20% to 3.01 yuan, implying a 20.8% upside potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC reports that Tiangong International (00826) is expected to ramp up alloy material production by 2026, with a projected net profit of 538 million yuan for 2026, and the current stock price corresponds to 17.0x/11.4x P/E for 2025/2026. The valuation has been switched to 2026 due to limited contribution from alloy materials in 2025, maintaining an outperform rating with a target price increase of 20% to HKD 3.01, implying a 20.8% upside potential for 2026 at 13.8x P/E [1] Group 1 - 1H25 performance met expectations with revenue of 2.343 billion yuan and net profit of 204 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [2] - Product sales showed slight decline: high-speed steel, tool steel, cutting tools, and titanium alloy sales were 7,000 tons, 68,000 tons, 95 million pieces, and 5,000 tons respectively [2] - Main product profitability showed divergence: high-speed steel and tool steel benefited from domestic industry recovery and rising raw material prices, with high-speed steel price and gross margin increasing by 0.9% and 1.5 percentage points to 54,090 yuan and 15.6% respectively; tool steel price and gross margin increased by 3.0% and 0.5 percentage points to 17,039 yuan and 13.8% respectively [2] Group 2 - The company is accelerating its high-end transformation strategy, expected to yield results by 2026, particularly in titanium alloy business, which is projected to significantly increase profit contributions [3] - The company has enhanced its melting technology for titanium alloys and is capable of producing various grades, with expectations of increased profitability driven by recovering demand in consumer electronics [3] - Powder metallurgy products are anticipated to continue ramping up, with the company being a leading domestic supplier with a manufacturing capacity of 8,000-10,000 tons of alloy powder, exploring new applications in various industries [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tian Gong International (00826) reported a revenue of 2.3425 billion RMB for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.1% while net profit attributable to equity holders increased by 10.4% to 204 million RMB [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the period was 2.3425 billion RMB, down 7.1% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was 204 million RMB, up 10.4% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.075 RMB, with an interim dividend proposed at 0.0262 RMB per share [1] Margin Analysis - The gross margin for tool steel increased from 13.3% in the first half of 2024 to 13.8% in the first half of 2025, attributed to the recovery of domestic industry and successful cost pass-through to customers [1] - The overall gross margin for high-speed steel rose from 14.1% in the first half of 2024 to 15.6% in the first half of 2025, reflecting similar trends observed in tool steel [1] Strategic Developments - Tian Gong's subsidiary, Tian Gong Co., successfully listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on May 13, 2025, becoming the first red-chip Hong Kong stock to spin off its subsidiary for A-share listing, indicating strong market confidence in its high-end materials and consumer electronics penetration [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tian Gong International (00826) reported a revenue of 2.3425 billion RMB for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.1% while the profit attributable to equity holders increased by 10.4% to 204 million RMB [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the period was 2.3425 billion RMB, down 7.1% year-on-year [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders was 204 million RMB, up 10.4% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.075 RMB, with an interim dividend proposed at 0.0262 RMB per share [1] Margin Analysis - The gross margin for tool steel increased from 13.3% in the first half of 2024 to 13.8% in the first half of 2025, attributed to the recovery of domestic industry and successful cost pass-through to customers [1] - High-speed steel also saw a similar trend, with overall gross margin rising from 14.1% in the first half of 2024 to 15.6% in the first half of 2025 [1] Strategic Developments - Tian Gong's subsidiary, Tian Gong Co., successfully listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on May 13, 2025, becoming the first red-chip Hong Kong stock to spin off its subsidiary for A-share listing, indicating strong market confidence in its high-end materials and consumer electronics penetration [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tian Gong International (00826.HK) reported a decline in overall revenue for the first half of 2025, despite an increase in net profit attributable to equity holders [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 2.34 billion, a decrease of 7.1% compared to the first half of 2024 [1] - Net profit attributable to equity holders increased by 10.4% to RMB 204 million [1] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.075 [1] Industry Context - The domestic demand and market conditions for mold steel and high-speed steel are gradually recovering, yet overall revenue is still on a downward trend due to various factors [1] - Uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies has led to a reduction in exports across various divisions, with clients exhibiting a cautious attitude and a decrease in order volume [1] - The demand for titanium wire in the consumer electronics sector has temporarily declined, primarily due to end customers reducing the use of titanium alloy frames for the next generation of mobile phone frames [1] - Although the company has adjusted its titanium alloy division's product mix towards titanium plates and pipes, the lower added value of these products has resulted in a continued decline in revenue for the titanium alloy division [1]

Group 1: Company Overview and Business Segments - Antai Technology focuses on advanced powder metallurgy, rapid solidification, additive manufacturing, and other core material preparation technologies, establishing a complete industrial platform from materials to products [1] - The company operates in four main business segments: high-end powder metallurgy materials, advanced functional materials, high-speed tool steel, and energy-saving environmental protection materials [1] - Key applications include aerospace, nuclear power, high-end medical devices, third-generation semiconductors, new energy vehicles, and consumer electronics [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 1.782 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 82.55 million, an increase of 4.95% year-on-year [2] - The company’s total sales, management, and financial expenses amounted to CNY 110 million, accounting for 6.17% of revenue, a decrease of 13.3% year-on-year [2] - Cash and cash equivalents reached CNY 2.552 billion, a 10.90% increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Controlled Nuclear Fusion Sector - Antai Zhongke is the first company in China capable of producing tungsten-copper filters for controlled nuclear fusion, with a complete set of technologies from raw materials to component delivery [3] - The company has successfully applied its products in major projects like EAST, CRAFT, and ITER, contributing to significant milestones in nuclear fusion research [4] - Since 2008, the company has provided over 5,000 tungsten-copper components for various fusion projects, enhancing China's influence in the international nuclear fusion field [4] Group 4: Amorphous Materials and Future Directions - The company has over 20 years of experience in the amorphous materials sector, establishing a competitive advantage through continuous innovation [5] - It is focusing on high-potential applications in power distribution and amorphous motors, with plans to start a new project for producing 10,000 tons of amorphous strip material by 2024 [5] - The amorphous motor market is expected to grow, and the company is working on overcoming industry challenges and establishing standards [6][7] Group 5: Stock Incentive Plan and Performance Goals - The stock incentive plan for 2023-2025 includes performance targets based on net profit growth and return on equity, with a compound annual growth rate of at least 19% for 2023 and 2024, and 25% for 2025 [8] - The company has successfully met its performance targets for 2023 and 2024, aiming to achieve all goals for 2025 to create long-term value for shareholders [8] Group 6: Investor Relations and Compliance - The company conducted investor communications in compliance with information disclosure regulations, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of disclosed information [9]