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妙可蓝多20250731
2025-08-05 03:20
Summary of the Conference Call for Miaokelando Company Overview - **Company**: Miaokelando - **Industry**: Cheese Retail Market Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics - After 2022, the cheese retail market experienced a decline, but leading companies like Miaokelando increased their market share, which is currently around 30% [2][3] - Smaller brands are exiting the market due to cost pressures and insufficient R&D capabilities, raising industry barriers [2][3] Business Performance - **C-end (Consumer)**: Miaokelando is diversifying its product matrix beyond low-temperature cheese sticks to include adult cheese snacks, expanding into new channels like Hema and Sam's Club [2][4] - **B-end (Commercial)**: The company has made significant progress in sectors like Western cuisine, baking, and tea drinks, aided by resources from Mengniu and partnerships with major brands like Yum and McDonald's [2][4][12][13] Growth Potential - Miaokelando is positioned for dual growth in revenue and profit, leveraging low milk prices and deep processing to replace imported cheese, thus reducing costs [2][5] - The Chinese cheese market is expected to grow significantly, with a mid-term scale projected to reach 300-400 billion yuan and a long-term potential to exceed 1 trillion yuan [2][6] Management and Strategy - The new management team, which includes nine executives with marketing backgrounds, is focused on business-driven and diversified growth, setting ambitious revenue and profit targets for 2025-2027 [2][9] - The company has launched a stock incentive plan to boost confidence in future performance, targeting a revenue growth rate of 16% by 2026 and 20% by 2027 [9][18] Channel Expansion - Miaokelando is actively exploring new channels, including customized products for Sam's Club and Hema, and entering snack wholesale markets with smaller packaging [2][10] Marketing Innovations - The company is shifting its marketing strategy to include adult-oriented IP resources, signing contracts for IP rights worth 50 million yuan to enhance brand recognition among younger consumers [2][11] B-end Market Development - The B-end market is expected to grow significantly, with the Western fast food market projected to reach approximately 300 billion yuan by 2024, and the tea and coffee market exceeding 500 billion yuan in 2023 [12][14] Support from Mengniu - Mengniu's acquisition of Miaokelando has provided substantial support, including supply chain advantages that help reduce raw material costs and enhance competitiveness [15][16] Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost of domestically produced cheese is now 80-90% of imported cheese, with potential reductions to 70% through better raw milk procurement [17] - This shift is expected to improve gross margins, particularly in the B-end market where cost sensitivity is higher [17] Future Outlook - Miaokelando aims for a net profit margin comparable to international leaders, with a vision to achieve over 10 billion yuan in revenue by 2030 [18] - The company anticipates a doubling of profits and a double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with a projected net profit of 38 to 63 million yuan for Q2 [18][19] Valuation Concerns - There are concerns regarding the high valuation of Miaokelando, with a current P/E ratio of 60, expected to normalize to around 30 by 2027 [20][21] - Despite this, the company is viewed positively due to its unique position in the cheese market and the anticipated profit growth [20][21] Additional Important Insights - The cheese consumption per capita in China is significantly lower than in Japan, South Korea, and Western countries, indicating substantial growth potential in the market [6] - The management's focus on innovation and market expansion is expected to drive future growth and profitability [7][8]
妙可蓝多(600882):Q2利润持续亮眼 拥抱奶酪发展新周期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-12 12:32
Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit and operating performance in the first half of 2025, driven by effective cost control and the acceleration of domestic raw material substitution [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.3% to 88.9% [1]. - The expected net profit for the second quarter of 2025 is projected to be between 38-63 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.8% to 89.4% [1]. - The company confirmed a share-based payment expense of 18.687 million yuan in Q2 2025, while also increasing expenses in e-commerce channels [1]. Market and Product Development - The cheese market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a 5% year-on-year decline in retail cheese market size, but a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The demand for industrial cheese products has been growing since 2022, with B-end cheese sales accounting for 70% of the total market in 2024, presenting growth opportunities [2]. - The company is enhancing its product matrix with new cheese products and focusing on upgrading existing products [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company expects a significant increase in gross margin for the first half of 2025, primarily due to the accelerated domestic substitution of key raw materials [3]. - The company is also working on the production and research of whey products, which are expected to contribute to revenue and reduce overall costs by the end of the year [3]. - The company has been strictly controlling sales expenses while improving the efficiency of expense allocation [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is optimistic about its continuous investment in cheese product development and raw material substitution, which is expected to release growth momentum [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 0.57, 0.72, and 0.83 yuan, reflecting an increase of 11%, 10%, and 10% respectively [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to 31.90 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 56x for 2025 [4].
妙可蓝多(600882):坚定信心 奶酪龙头创新引领、经营持续向好
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 14:32
Group 1 - The company continues to innovate and expand channels, leading the domestic cheese industry with both C-end and B-end products, aiming for a revenue target of 10 billion [1] - The core cheese business is driven by both C-end and B-end, with three main product series: ready-to-eat nutritional cheese, family table cheese, and catering industrial cheese [1] - In the ready-to-eat nutritional cheese series, the company launched several new products in the first half of 2025, focusing on expanding the adult cheese market [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes the layout and deep cultivation of e-commerce platforms, achieving significant results during the 618 shopping festival, ranking first in the cheese/dairy category across all platforms [2] - New products such as cheese cups and cheese triangles performed exceptionally well, with strong sales for the dual-brand cheese sticks and other cheese products [2] - The company is collaborating with high-potential offline channels like Sam's Club and Hema, showcasing its product and brand strength in the cheese sector [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 5.636 billion, 6.549 billion, and 7.608 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.35%, 16.21%, and 16.17% respectively [3] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is 235 million, 342 million, and 436 million, with significant year-on-year growth rates of 107.15%, 45.47%, and 27.41% [3] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with corresponding PE ratios of 68X, 47X, and 37X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]
【妙可蓝多(600882.SH)】降本增效带动利润显著改善,新品表现值得期待——2025年一季报点评(陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅)
光大证券研究· 2025-04-22 08:55
本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件: 妙可蓝多25Q1实现营业收入12.3亿元,同比+6.3%(调整后);归母净利润0.8亿元,同比+114.9%(调整 后);扣非归母净利润0.6亿元,同比+110.2%。 并表后奶酪业务收入同比增加明显 1)分产品看:25Q1奶酪/液态奶/贸易收入分别为10.30/0.95/1.01亿元,和蒙牛奶酪并表前的24Q1各业务收 入分别为7.85/0.81/0.82亿元。2)分渠道看:25Q1经销/直营/贸易收入分别为9.59/1.65/1.01亿元,并表前 的24Q1各渠道收入分别为7.35/1.31/0.82亿元。3)分地区看:25Q1北区/中区/南区收入分别为4.64/5.14/ 2.48亿元,并表前的24Q1各地区收入分别为3.74/3.87/1.87亿元。截 ...
【妙可蓝多(600882.SH)】降本增效带动利润显著改善,新品表现值得期待——2025年一季报点评(陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅)
光大证券研究· 2025-04-22 08:55
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 与蒙牛协同推进降本增效,上新加快逐步贡献业绩增量 事件: 妙可蓝多25Q1实现营业收入12.3亿元,同比+6.3%(调整后);归母净利润0.8亿元,同比+114.9%(调整 后);扣非归母净利润0.6亿元,同比+110.2%。 并表后奶酪业务收入同比增加明显 1)分产品看:25Q1奶酪/液态奶/贸易收入分别为10.30/0.95/1.01亿元,和蒙牛奶酪并表前的24Q1各业务收 入分别为7.85/0.81/0.82亿元。2)分渠道看:25Q1经销/直营/贸易收入分别为9.59/1.65/1.01亿元,并表前 的24Q1各渠道收入分别为7.35/1.31/0.82亿元。3)分地区看:25Q1北区/中区/南区收入分别为4.64/5.14/ 2.48亿元,并表前的24Q1各地区收入分别为3.74/3.87/1.87亿元。截至25Q1末,北区/中区/南区经销商数量 分别为3662/2424/1960个,总计8046个,较24年末分别增加111/106/32个,总计净增加249个,经销商数量 持续增加。 产品结构优化及积极控费下,25Q1归母净利率同比改善 1)毛利率:25Q1 ...
妙可蓝多(600882):25Q1业绩超预期 拐点明确有望持续向好
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-22 00:26
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a positive turnaround in revenue growth for Q1 2025, driven by improved competitive dynamics in the cheese market and synergies from the merger with Mengniu [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.233 billion yuan, with an adjusted year-on-year growth of 6.26%, marking the first quarter of positive revenue growth since Q4 2022 [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 82 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 114.88%, while the adjusted net profit excluding non-recurring items was 65 million yuan, up 110.23% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 31.49%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 6.68%, up 3.38 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on innovation in the cheese snack sector, targeting both children and adults, and enhancing the penetration of domestic cheese products in the B-end and family dining markets [2] - The establishment of a domestic cheese supply chain using local milk is seen as a foundational strategy for long-term competitiveness over the next five to ten years [2] - The company has launched several new products in the cheese snack category, including cheese balls and cheese triangles, and aims to strengthen collaboration with Mengniu in both B-end and C-end businesses [3] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.628 billion, 6.590 billion, and 7.730 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.18%, 17.10%, and 17.30% respectively [3] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is projected to be 241 million, 350 million, and 476 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 112.37%, 45.12%, and 36.00% respectively [3] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 58X, 40X, and 30X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]