2025Q3 公司营收增长提速，利润低基数上继续明显改善，奶酪品类长期渗透率提升空间较大，公司 B 端开拓和 C端改善之下逐步提速成长可期。 奶酪主业增长较快，盈利逐步提升。公司2025Q3 奶酪业务实现营收11.66 亿元、同比+22%，快于整体 收入增速，液态奶业务有所收缩。公司继续开拓B 端渠道以及C 端新品，我们预计25Q3 因C 端即时营 养系列处于季节性淡季，而B 端占比相对提高，单Q3 利润绝对额相对Q1 和Q2 偏低，后续C 端需求有 望自然回暖带动产品结构和毛利率提升。同时公司通过管理运营的精细化有望继续提升费效，未来盈利 提升空间较大。 产品渠道持续创新，市场开拓空间较大。公司延续B 端高增、C 端稳健的经营态势，C 端奶酪棒稳低温 拓常温、积极布局家庭餐桌场景，以KA 为主逐步走向多元化，积极布局零食量贩、会员店、便利店等 成长性渠道。B 端双品牌产品互补，爱氏晨曦以稀奶油和黄油见长，妙可蓝多马苏里拉、奶酪片、原制 奶酪订单持续放量，定制化新品打开市场，组合协同成效显现。公司作为奶酪行业龙头形成品牌和管理 沉淀，未来有望在奶酪大市场中持续开拓新品和新场景，同时结合渠道开拓推动品类渗透率的 ...

Core Insights - Miaokelando has established itself as a leading player in the cheese industry in China, aiming to make cheese a staple in every household and targeting a vision of becoming a "leading and respected cheese enterprise" globally during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][8] - The company has achieved significant market share, with over 38% in the packaged cheese segment and a strong focus on expanding its product offerings to cater to a wider age demographic [3][4] Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Miaokelando reported total revenue of 3.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million yuan, up 106.88% [3] - The company has successfully transitioned from a focus on children's cheese products to a broader "national cheese" strategy, introducing various products for different consumer segments [4] Strategic Initiatives - The "Store Efficiency Doubling" strategy has been identified as a key initiative for the next three years, focusing on enhancing profitability through high-margin products and improving operational efficiency [5][6] - Miaokelando is committed to increasing the localization of its raw materials, with ongoing projects aimed at reducing reliance on foreign ingredients and enhancing cost control [7] Market Position and Future Plans - The cheese market in China is still in its early growth stage, with significant potential for expansion, as current deep-processed dairy products account for only 7.3% of the market [7] - The company plans to implement a dual strategy of "toB + toC" and pursue international expansion through acquisitions and product innovation, aiming to create several blockbuster products [8]

Core Insights - Shanghai consumer companies are leveraging innovation, quality, branding, and international expansion to drive growth and contribute to the city's goal of becoming an international consumption center [12][14]. Group 1: Innovation - Innovation is identified as the key to overcoming growth bottlenecks, with companies like Miaokelan Duo creating a diverse product matrix that appeals to all age groups, achieving a 38% market share in cheese [12][13]. - Long-established brands like Laofengxiang are successfully merging traditional craftsmanship with modern trends, utilizing collaborations with popular IPs to attract younger consumers [12][18]. Group 2: Quality - Quality is emphasized as the foundation of brand strength, with Longtou Co.'s "Fire Cotton" series achieving the highest market share in its category for 28 consecutive years [13]. - Kaien Health holds numerous patents and has received international recognition for its core products, reinforcing its position in the health and wellness sector [13]. Group 3: Branding - Branding is seen as a core asset for long-term development, with companies like Miaokelan Duo and Laofengxiang evolving their brand identities to resonate with modern consumers [13][14]. - Laofengxiang is expanding into the luxury market through strategic partnerships and product diversification, aiming to enhance its brand presence [16][21]. Group 4: International Expansion - Companies are increasingly looking to international markets for growth, with Longtou Co. and Kaien Health actively pursuing overseas opportunities [14][21]. - Laofengxiang is accelerating its global store openings and collaborations to promote Chinese aesthetics internationally [14][21]. Group 5: Financial Performance - Laofengxiang has maintained annual sales exceeding 50 billion yuan, with a target to surpass 100 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [20][21]. - Miaokelan Duo reported a revenue of 3.957 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 10.09% year-on-year growth [32].

Core Insights - The industry is expected to benefit from an optimized structure that enhances profitability, driven by the dual engines of BC and the trend of domestic substitution, leading to a "buy" rating [1] Supply and Demand Perspective - On the supply side, the environment for raw milk is anticipated to remain cost-effective, supporting the development of deep processing in the downstream dairy product industry; globally, there is a natural shift from liquid milk to solid dairy products [1] Competitive Landscape - The C-end cheese stick brand and channel improvements are driving market share growth; national standards and the pandemic have helped eliminate some low-quality brands, leading to a significant improvement in the competitive landscape compared to five years ago when cheese sticks were highly popular; the B-end is primarily dominated by foreign brands with a low domestic market share [1] Strategic Improvements - The strategic focus is on BC linkage and supply chain enhancements; cost-wise, low raw milk prices and domestic equipment/raw material substitution are expected to improve financial reports and strategies by 2025 [1] Long-term Growth Potential - The industry growth is assured due to increased per capita cheese consumption and penetration; market share growth is confirmed through C-end optimization and B-end breakthroughs; major players like Mengniu are enhancing management to improve competitiveness; profit margin optimization is expected from favorable C-end dynamics and B-end revenue expansion leading to cost scale effects and structural optimization; equity incentives are in place to ensure motivation [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - Based on the Q3 report, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted from 5.3/6.2/7.1 billion to 5.4/6.3/7.2 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted from 240/350/450 million to 240/320/430 million; EPS has been adjusted from 0.48/0.68/0.88 to 0.47/0.63/0.85; the closing price of 25.6 yuan on October 31, 2025, corresponds to PE ratios of 55/41/30 times [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Miaokelando, announced that it does not currently meet the conditions for cash dividends due to negative retained earnings in both consolidated and parent company financial statements as of September 30, 2025, but will actively consider cash dividends once conditions are met [2] Financial Performance - In Q3, Miaokelando achieved a revenue of 1.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 43 million yuan, up 214.67% year-on-year [3][5] - For the first three quarters, the company reported a total revenue of 3.96 billion yuan, a 10.09% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 176 million yuan, which is a 106.88% increase year-on-year [3][5] Profitability and Margins - The increase in net profit is attributed to the optimization of product structure and a rise in revenue from high-margin cheese products, along with increased government subsidies and investment income [5] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.88%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year, driven by domestic procurement of raw materials and product structure upgrades [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a stock option incentive plan and an employee stock ownership plan, focusing on revenue growth and profit release as key performance indicators [2] - Miaokelando's future strategies include a dual-driven approach targeting both B2B and B2C markets, as well as pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enhance its market position [6] Shareholder Structure - As of the latest report, Mengniu Dairy holds a 36.77% stake in Miaokelando, making it the largest shareholder, while the founder, Chai Xiu, holds 14.92% [6] Industry Outlook - Chai Xiu expressed confidence in the rapid growth of the cheese industry in China, predicting that the market will reach a scale of hundreds of billions [7]

Core Insights - The global dairy industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly in cheese as a high-value product, driven by a balance of traditional craftsmanship and innovative thinking [1][3] - Inner Mongolia Quanmu Food Co., Ltd. is emerging as a unique player by blending nomadic dairy culture with modern management, establishing a distinctive development trajectory [3][4] - The cheese consumption has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 4.3% over the past five years globally, with the Asia-Pacific region showing an impressive growth rate of 7.8% [3][4] Industry Trends - The diversification of consumer demand is pushing producers to innovate beyond traditional boundaries, leading to the introduction of various aging series and ready-to-eat cheese snacks [4] - Geographic advantages of milk sources are crucial, with Nordic companies producing creamy products and Mediterranean firms cultivating distinctive flavors through special cultures [4] - The evolution of consumer behavior is evident as local quality brands gradually replace imported products, reflecting increased national confidence and understanding of local taste preferences [4] Technological Advancements - Traditional dairy companies are facing challenges in adapting to digital transformation, with some leveraging blockchain for traceability and social media for personalized branding [5] - Inner Mongolia Quanmu Food Co., Ltd. has established a smart management system from farm to consumer, utilizing short videos to recreate nomadic life scenes for consumers [5] Sustainability Practices - Environmental issues are reshaping industry standards, with companies developing carbon-neutral packaging and sustainable farming practices [5] - Inner Mongolia Quanmu Food Co., Ltd. incorporates sustainable development into its operations, including crop rotation for soil protection and the use of new energy vehicles for transportation [5] Innovation and Tradition - The interplay of taste memory and innovation remains a central theme, with traditional cheese-making practices coexisting with modern experimental techniques [5] - Inner Mongolia Quanmu Food Co., Ltd. fosters collaboration between traditional artisans and modern food engineers to innovate while preserving cultural heritage [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Laoshenshijia Health Technology Development Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Laoshenshijia"), founded by dairy veteran Guo Benheng, has filed for bankruptcy liquidation after struggling in the cheese industry for three years, with the first creditors' meeting scheduled for October 23, 2025 [1][2][8]. Company Overview - Laoshenshijia was established in 2022 by Guo Benheng, former general manager of Bright Dairy, and initially attracted attention due to investments from companies like Jingpai and Junlebao [2][5]. - Guo Benheng, born in 1963 and a food science PhD, previously held significant positions at Bright Dairy before founding Laoshenshijia [5][6]. Financial and Operational Challenges - The company faced a slowdown in the cheese market, complicated product health concepts, and high pricing strategies that hindered consumer acceptance, leading to operational difficulties as early as 2024 [1][8]. - Laoshenshijia's business model relied heavily on e-commerce promotions, which resulted in significant losses despite high sales volumes [8][9]. Market Strategy and Performance - Laoshenshijia aimed to redefine cheese in China with innovative products targeting children and women, but the complexity of their health concepts and high prices led to poor market reception [7][9]. - The company was reported to have engaged in unsustainable sales practices, such as selling products at a loss to generate volume, which ultimately did not foster customer loyalty [8][9]. Industry Context - The cheese market in China has been experiencing a downturn since 2021, with many small brands exiting the market due to rising costs and intense competition [14]. - Data from Nielsen indicates that cheese retail sales in China grew from 32.38 billion yuan in 2020 to 43.37 billion yuan in 2022, but the growth rate significantly slowed [14]. - The market has seen a consolidation, with only about ten major brands remaining, making it increasingly difficult for new entrants to gain a foothold [14][15]. Future Outlook - Despite Laoshenshijia's struggles, the cheese market is expected to evolve, with potential growth in B2B segments and new product innovations targeting adult consumers [15][16]. - The demand for original cheese products is anticipated to rise, as domestic production capabilities improve and consumer preferences shift towards healthier options [17][18].

Core Insights - The event highlighted the integration of industry revitalization and cultural development in Inner Mongolia, focusing on the dairy industry and its modernization efforts [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - A gathering of over a hundred young online influencers took place in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, to explore the "smart path from grass to milk" [1]. - The event was part of a cultural exchange initiative, showcasing the region's industrial and cultural advancements [1]. Group 2: Project Details - The Yili Modern Smart Health Valley is a key project under the "14th Five-Year Plan" for both the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Hohhot City [3]. - The project focuses on the dairy industry and includes six functional areas such as smart manufacturing, innovative research and development, and cultural tourism [3]. - It aims to become a global hub for dairy resource integration and a model for urban-rural integration [3]. Group 3: Technological Showcase - Influencers documented the operations of advanced manufacturing technologies, including robotic arms and AGV (Automated Guided Vehicle) systems, showcasing the cutting-edge production methods in the dairy sector [5]. - Participants experienced the process of freshly brewed tea and sampled unique products like cheese sticks and creative ice creams, indicating strong interest in innovative dairy offerings [5]. Group 4: Social Media Engagement - The influencers utilized various formats such as live streaming, short videos, and articles to share their experiences on social media, promoting the technological strength and cultural appeal of the dairy industry in Inner Mongolia [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent research conducted by QuanGuo Fund on the listed company MiaoKeLanDuo, highlighting its strategic focus on the "Store Efficiency Doubling" initiative as a long-term plan for the next three years [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy - The "Store Efficiency Doubling" strategy is identified as the company's top priority, aimed at transforming marketing and operations by focusing on consumer needs and enhancing resource allocation towards frontline operations [1][2]. - The company is implementing a triangular organizational model to shift from resource input to capability enhancement, which is expected to drive high-quality development [1][2]. Group 2: Business Performance - As of September 29, 2025, QuanGuo Fund's best-performing product, QuanGuo XuYuan Three-Year Holding Mixed A, achieved a return of 54.74% over the past year [2]. - The company has seen significant progress in both B-end and C-end business operations, with a focus on domestic raw material substitution and enhanced supply chain capabilities [3][4]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is expanding its product offerings to cater to a broader demographic, including children, teenagers, and adults, by introducing new products like cheese balls and cheese snacks [7][12]. - The company aims to enhance its market position in the cheese segment by leveraging its strong R&D capabilities to customize products for various retail channels [4][9]. Group 4: Sales and Marketing Strategy - The sales team is structured to optimize collaboration with distributors and retailers, focusing on enhancing efficiency through a unified command system [6][8]. - The company is utilizing a dual-brand pricing strategy in the snack retail channel to increase product penetration and market share [4][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company envisions becoming a leading cheese enterprise in China and a respected player globally, with a five-year plan that includes a dual-driven strategy focusing on both B-end and C-end markets [12][13]. - The company plans to enhance its supply chain capabilities and expand its market reach through strategic partnerships and product innovation [12][13].

Summary of the Conference Call for Miaokelando Industry Overview - The Chinese cheese market is in a growth phase, with a projected market share of 30% for Miaokelando by 2024, significantly surpassing competitors [2][5] - The cheese consumption per capita in China is only 0.2 kg, which is 1/4 of South Korea and less than 1/9 of Japan, indicating substantial growth potential [4][8] - The cheese industry is expected to reach a production volume of 500,000 tons and a retail market value exceeding 30 billion yuan by 2025 [2][11] Company Position and Strategy - Miaokelando has maintained its leading position in the Chinese cheese market since 2021, with a market share that exceeds the combined share of its second and third competitors [5][13] - The company is focusing on channel integration and B-end solutions to drive growth and efficiency [2][15] - Miaokelando's financial performance has improved significantly, with a focus on core products like cheese sticks leading to substantial revenue growth and increased profit margins [2][17] Key Growth Drivers - The demand for cheese is driven by both B-end (business) and C-end (consumer) markets, with the B-end market for Western fast food expected to reach 600 billion yuan by 2024 [12] - The company is expanding its B-end market by forming strategic partnerships with restaurant brands and optimizing fermentation processes [3][22] - The supply-side dynamics, including supportive industry policies and technological advancements, are expected to drive the growth of high-value-added dairy products like cheese [10][22] Competitive Landscape - Local brands are gaining market share in the Chinese cheese market, with Miaokelando surpassing foreign brands in 2021 [2][13] - The concentration of the market is increasing, with local brands' share rising from 52% in 2008 to an expected 66% in 2024 [13] Financial Performance - Since its restructuring in 2016, Miaokelando has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% in revenue from 2018 to 2021, with gross margins increasing from 27% to 38% [17] - Despite a revenue decline in 2023 due to the pandemic, the company expects a recovery in 2024 following the integration of Mengniu's business [17] Product and Market Expansion - Miaokelando's core products include cheese sticks, cheese slices, and mozzarella cheese, with a strategic focus on original cheese products [18] - The company is expanding its product line to include ready-to-eat snacks and has established a distribution network covering approximately 7800 distributors and 800,000 retail terminals [20] Future Outlook - The long-term growth outlook for Miaokelando is positive, driven by B-end solutions and continuous investment in deep processing technologies [22][24] - The company aims to diversify its product offerings and enhance its market presence across different consumer segments, including expanding into all-age demographics [24] Conclusion - The cheese market in China presents significant growth opportunities, and Miaokelando is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends through strategic partnerships, product innovation, and market expansion efforts [24]