Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that Miaokelando has solidified its leading position in the cheese market through strategic partnerships, particularly with Mengniu, and has maintained a market share exceeding 35% in cheese sales in China as of 2023 [2][6] - The company has focused on a "cheese-centric" strategy, expanding its product matrix to include ready-to-eat nutrition, family dining, and food service industries, with nearly 100 SKUs [3][5] - The report indicates that the cheese market in China is in a growth phase, with a low penetration rate of less than 3% compared to the overall dairy market, suggesting significant room for growth [6] Group 2: Financial Performance - Miaokelando's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.313 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.07%, with cheese sales volume reaching 80,300 tons, a 39.39% increase [5][7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.435 billion, 6.193 billion, and 7.100 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 12.22%, 13.94%, and 14.64% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 241 million, 357 million, and 471 million yuan for the same period, with significant growth rates of 112.10%, 48.20%, and 31.86% respectively [7]

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Miaokelan Duo, Inner Mongolia Mengniu Dairy (Group) Co., Ltd., has increased its stake in the company, signaling confidence in its future performance and growth potential [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Activity - Inner Mongolia Mengniu Dairy has completed its first share buyback, acquiring 322,100 A-shares for a total of 7.8269 million yuan, increasing its ownership from 36.77% to 36.84% [2]. - The company plans to continue buying back shares in the next three months, with a target of acquiring between 2.5503 million and 5.1005 million shares, representing an increase of 0.50% to 1.00% of total shares [2]. Group 2: Stock Performance - In 2025, Miaokelan Duo's stock price experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a low of 16.62 yuan per share on January 10 and peaking at 33.46 yuan on June 13, before closing at 25.62 yuan on December 30, marking a 54% increase from the year's lowest point [2]. - The stock has not yet returned to its peak of 84.5 yuan per share in 2021 [2]. Group 3: Business Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Miaokelan Duo reported a revenue of 3.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million yuan, up 106.88% [1][5]. - The company’s cheese business generated 3.302 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 83.9% of its main business income, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 17.4% [4]. Group 4: Market Position - Miaokelan Duo has established a strong market presence in the cheese sector, with a market share exceeding 38% in the packaged cheese segment as of the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the industry leader [3][4]. - The company has developed a multi-brand strategy that includes Miaokelan Duo, Mengniu Cheese, and Aishi Chenxi [3].

健康消费升级浪潮中，奶酪凭借 "高钙高蛋白" 的营养优势，一度成为食品赛道的风口品类。这一细分赛道的爆发潜力吸引诸多玩家扎堆入局，新品牌、 新融资消息接连不断，呈现出一派火热景象。然而，近两年来奶酪行业的"降温"信号愈发明显。头部品牌业绩波动、新锐企业增速放缓、黯然离场。 奶酪行业遇冷 众所周知，奶酪曾是一个大热赛道。随着国民健康意识和认知水平的双重提升，奶酪"营养浓缩""高钙高蛋白"的价值被发掘，使其在即食营养、餐饮工 业、家庭餐桌等细分领域迎来爆发式增长。在此之下，各路玩家也闻香而动。 彼时，一大批新生奶酪品牌争相涌现，妙可蓝多、奶酪博士、妙飞、爱氏晨曦、百吉福等多个中外品牌同台角逐。与此同时，投资机构也跑步进场，频繁 向初创品牌伸出橄榄枝，数百万元至千万元级别融资信息一波接着一波。 然而，今年上海市第三中级人民法院的公告，却让外界看到了奶酪赛道的另一面。9月8日，法院裁定受理上海酪神世家健康科技发展有限公司的破产清算 申请，并于10月23日召开了第一次债权人会议，这也意味着这家企业已走向终局。 事实上，近年来整个奶酪行业都在经历"降温"。据欧睿国际数据，2017年-2021年我国原制及再制奶酪市场销售规 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company has solidified its leading position in the cheese market through collaboration with Mengniu, enhancing its competitive edge [2][17] - The company is expanding its brand reach by targeting both adult and B-end markets, creating new growth opportunities [4][21] - The domestic cheese market is in a growth phase with accelerating domestic substitution, indicating significant market potential [5][69] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company transitioned to focus on cheese in 2015, acquiring Tianjin Miaokelando and Danone's Shanghai factory, and has since established a strong market presence [3][16] - As of 2023, the company holds over 35% market share in the cheese segment, maintaining its position as the industry leader [3][75] Product Strategy - The company has developed a product matrix consisting of ready-to-eat nutrition, family dining, and food service, with nearly 100 SKUs [4][20] - New products targeting the youth and adult markets, such as "Growth Yogurt" and "Beef + Reconstituted Cheese," are set to launch, expanding the brand's audience [4][21] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 54.35 billion, CNY 61.93 billion, and CNY 71.00 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.22%, 13.94%, and 14.64% respectively [6][82] - Net profit is expected to reach CNY 2.41 billion, CNY 3.57 billion, and CNY 4.71 billion during the same period, with significant growth rates [6][82] Industry Analysis - The cheese market in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% from 2022 to 2026, with a current retail scale of CNY 143 billion [5][57] - China's cheese consumption per capita is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial room for growth [5][62] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three brands holding 53.2% of the market share, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing domestic substitution trends [5][71]

Core Insights - The company is experiencing accelerated revenue growth and significant profit improvement due to a low base, with substantial long-term penetration potential in the cheese category [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million yuan, up 106.88%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 120 million yuan, reflecting a 92.44% increase. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 1.39 billion yuan, a 14.22% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 43 million yuan, up 214.67%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 17 million yuan, increasing by 224.22% [2]. Cheese Business Growth - The cheese segment reported revenue of 1.166 billion yuan in Q3 2025, growing 22% year-on-year, outpacing overall revenue growth. The liquid milk business saw a contraction. The company is expanding its B-end channels and improving its C-end offerings, with expectations for a natural recovery in C-end demand to enhance product structure and gross margins [3]. Market Expansion and Innovation - The company maintains a strong growth trajectory in the B-end while ensuring stable performance in the C-end. It is innovating product channels and expanding into new market segments, including family dining and various retail formats. The dual-brand strategy in the B-end is yielding complementary benefits, with significant growth in customized products. As a leader in the cheese industry, the company is well-positioned to continue launching new products and enhancing category penetration [3].

Core Insights - Miaokelando has established itself as a leading player in the cheese industry in China, aiming to make cheese a staple in every household and targeting a vision of becoming a "leading and respected cheese enterprise" globally during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][8] - The company has achieved significant market share, with over 38% in the packaged cheese segment and a strong focus on expanding its product offerings to cater to a wider age demographic [3][4] Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Miaokelando reported total revenue of 3.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million yuan, up 106.88% [3] - The company has successfully transitioned from a focus on children's cheese products to a broader "national cheese" strategy, introducing various products for different consumer segments [4] Strategic Initiatives - The "Store Efficiency Doubling" strategy has been identified as a key initiative for the next three years, focusing on enhancing profitability through high-margin products and improving operational efficiency [5][6] - Miaokelando is committed to increasing the localization of its raw materials, with ongoing projects aimed at reducing reliance on foreign ingredients and enhancing cost control [7] Market Position and Future Plans - The cheese market in China is still in its early growth stage, with significant potential for expansion, as current deep-processed dairy products account for only 7.3% of the market [7] - The company plans to implement a dual strategy of "toB + toC" and pursue international expansion through acquisitions and product innovation, aiming to create several blockbuster products [8]

Core Insights - Shanghai consumer companies are leveraging innovation, quality, branding, and international expansion to drive growth and contribute to the city's goal of becoming an international consumption center [12][14]. Group 1: Innovation - Innovation is identified as the key to overcoming growth bottlenecks, with companies like Miaokelan Duo creating a diverse product matrix that appeals to all age groups, achieving a 38% market share in cheese [12][13]. - Long-established brands like Laofengxiang are successfully merging traditional craftsmanship with modern trends, utilizing collaborations with popular IPs to attract younger consumers [12][18]. Group 2: Quality - Quality is emphasized as the foundation of brand strength, with Longtou Co.'s "Fire Cotton" series achieving the highest market share in its category for 28 consecutive years [13]. - Kaien Health holds numerous patents and has received international recognition for its core products, reinforcing its position in the health and wellness sector [13]. Group 3: Branding - Branding is seen as a core asset for long-term development, with companies like Miaokelan Duo and Laofengxiang evolving their brand identities to resonate with modern consumers [13][14]. - Laofengxiang is expanding into the luxury market through strategic partnerships and product diversification, aiming to enhance its brand presence [16][21]. Group 4: International Expansion - Companies are increasingly looking to international markets for growth, with Longtou Co. and Kaien Health actively pursuing overseas opportunities [14][21]. - Laofengxiang is accelerating its global store openings and collaborations to promote Chinese aesthetics internationally [14][21]. Group 5: Financial Performance - Laofengxiang has maintained annual sales exceeding 50 billion yuan, with a target to surpass 100 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [20][21]. - Miaokelan Duo reported a revenue of 3.957 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 10.09% year-on-year growth [32].

Core Insights - The industry is expected to benefit from an optimized structure that enhances profitability, driven by the dual engines of BC and the trend of domestic substitution, leading to a "buy" rating [1] Supply and Demand Perspective - On the supply side, the environment for raw milk is anticipated to remain cost-effective, supporting the development of deep processing in the downstream dairy product industry; globally, there is a natural shift from liquid milk to solid dairy products [1] Competitive Landscape - The C-end cheese stick brand and channel improvements are driving market share growth; national standards and the pandemic have helped eliminate some low-quality brands, leading to a significant improvement in the competitive landscape compared to five years ago when cheese sticks were highly popular; the B-end is primarily dominated by foreign brands with a low domestic market share [1] Strategic Improvements - The strategic focus is on BC linkage and supply chain enhancements; cost-wise, low raw milk prices and domestic equipment/raw material substitution are expected to improve financial reports and strategies by 2025 [1] Long-term Growth Potential - The industry growth is assured due to increased per capita cheese consumption and penetration; market share growth is confirmed through C-end optimization and B-end breakthroughs; major players like Mengniu are enhancing management to improve competitiveness; profit margin optimization is expected from favorable C-end dynamics and B-end revenue expansion leading to cost scale effects and structural optimization; equity incentives are in place to ensure motivation [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - Based on the Q3 report, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted from 5.3/6.2/7.1 billion to 5.4/6.3/7.2 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted from 240/350/450 million to 240/320/430 million; EPS has been adjusted from 0.48/0.68/0.88 to 0.47/0.63/0.85; the closing price of 25.6 yuan on October 31, 2025, corresponds to PE ratios of 55/41/30 times [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Miaokelando, announced that it does not currently meet the conditions for cash dividends due to negative retained earnings in both consolidated and parent company financial statements as of September 30, 2025, but will actively consider cash dividends once conditions are met [2] Financial Performance - In Q3, Miaokelando achieved a revenue of 1.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 43 million yuan, up 214.67% year-on-year [3][5] - For the first three quarters, the company reported a total revenue of 3.96 billion yuan, a 10.09% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 176 million yuan, which is a 106.88% increase year-on-year [3][5] Profitability and Margins - The increase in net profit is attributed to the optimization of product structure and a rise in revenue from high-margin cheese products, along with increased government subsidies and investment income [5] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.88%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year, driven by domestic procurement of raw materials and product structure upgrades [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a stock option incentive plan and an employee stock ownership plan, focusing on revenue growth and profit release as key performance indicators [2] - Miaokelando's future strategies include a dual-driven approach targeting both B2B and B2C markets, as well as pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enhance its market position [6] Shareholder Structure - As of the latest report, Mengniu Dairy holds a 36.77% stake in Miaokelando, making it the largest shareholder, while the founder, Chai Xiu, holds 14.92% [6] Industry Outlook - Chai Xiu expressed confidence in the rapid growth of the cheese industry in China, predicting that the market will reach a scale of hundreds of billions [7]

Core Insights - The global dairy industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly in cheese as a high-value product, driven by a balance of traditional craftsmanship and innovative thinking [1][3] - Inner Mongolia Quanmu Food Co., Ltd. is emerging as a unique player by blending nomadic dairy culture with modern management, establishing a distinctive development trajectory [3][4] - The cheese consumption has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 4.3% over the past five years globally, with the Asia-Pacific region showing an impressive growth rate of 7.8% [3][4] Industry Trends - The diversification of consumer demand is pushing producers to innovate beyond traditional boundaries, leading to the introduction of various aging series and ready-to-eat cheese snacks [4] - Geographic advantages of milk sources are crucial, with Nordic companies producing creamy products and Mediterranean firms cultivating distinctive flavors through special cultures [4] - The evolution of consumer behavior is evident as local quality brands gradually replace imported products, reflecting increased national confidence and understanding of local taste preferences [4] Technological Advancements - Traditional dairy companies are facing challenges in adapting to digital transformation, with some leveraging blockchain for traceability and social media for personalized branding [5] - Inner Mongolia Quanmu Food Co., Ltd. has established a smart management system from farm to consumer, utilizing short videos to recreate nomadic life scenes for consumers [5] Sustainability Practices - Environmental issues are reshaping industry standards, with companies developing carbon-neutral packaging and sustainable farming practices [5] - Inner Mongolia Quanmu Food Co., Ltd. incorporates sustainable development into its operations, including crop rotation for soil protection and the use of new energy vehicles for transportation [5] Innovation and Tradition - The interplay of taste memory and innovation remains a central theme, with traditional cheese-making practices coexisting with modern experimental techniques [5] - Inner Mongolia Quanmu Food Co., Ltd. fosters collaboration between traditional artisans and modern food engineers to innovate while preserving cultural heritage [5]