Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.95 CNY, reflecting a calculated equity value of 169 billion CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's industrial catering business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant potential for margin improvement in single product categories. The overall gross margin has decreased due to a higher proportion of lower-margin industrial catering products, but there is substantial room for improvement in individual product margins as domestic raw material substitution increases [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 25.7 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing an 8.0% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.3 billion CNY, up 86.3% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue reached 13.3 billion CNY (+9.6%) and net profit was 0.5 billion CNY (+53.1%) [10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.602 billion CNY, 6.485 billion CNY, and 7.482 billion CNY, respectively, with expected growth rates of 15.7%, 15.8%, and 15.4% [8]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 35.5%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increased share of lower-margin industrial catering products [10]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.46 CNY, 0.63 CNY, and 0.83 CNY, respectively [2][8].

Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 2.567 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 7.98% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 133 million yuan, up 86.27% compared to the previous year [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 30.81%, a year-on-year increase of 3.04% [1] - The net profit margin increased significantly to 5.18%, reflecting a 72.5% year-on-year growth [1] - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses was 622 million yuan, accounting for 24.24% of revenue, down 6.38% year-on-year [1] Cash Flow and Debt - The company's cash flow from operating activities per share decreased by 11.69% to 0.46 yuan [1] - The company’s interest-bearing debt increased by 43.83% to 2.526 billion yuan [1] - The cash and cash equivalents decreased by 51.89% to 656 million yuan due to investments in structured deposits and large transferable certificates of deposit [1][2] Accounts Receivable and Liabilities - Accounts receivable increased by 14.47% to 132 million yuan, representing 115.84% of the net profit [1] - The company saw a significant increase in notes payable by 463.58% due to increased bank bill settlements [3] - Contract liabilities decreased by 45.61% as pre-received customer payments declined [4] Market and Product Insights - The company’s cheese products, particularly cheese sticks, have shown positive growth, with market share increasing [17] - Despite a cautious consumption environment, the demand for cheese remains resilient, with imports of cheese products showing significant growth [17] - The company is focusing on product innovation and expanding its market presence through both B2C and B2B strategies [19] Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a dual strategy of B2C and B2B, enhancing supply chain management and cost efficiency [19] - Future product development will focus on high-value products and optimizing the product mix to improve profit margins [20] - The company plans to increase its digital marketing efforts and optimize traditional advertising to enhance brand influence [21]

事件：妙可蓝多25H1实现营业收入25.7亿元，同比+8%；归母净利润1.3亿元，同比+86.3%；扣非归母净利润1亿元，同比+80.1%。其中，25Q2实现营业收入13.3亿元，同比+9.6%；归母净 奶酪主业增长较快，B端业务表现亮眼。1)分产品看，25H1公司奶酪/液态奶/贸易业务收入分别为21.36/1.87/2.30亿元，分别同比+14.85%/+0.63%/+3.69%。奶酪业务作为核心引擎，收 费用率优化驱动盈利能力提升。1)25H1/25Q2公司毛利率分别为30.81%/30.18%，同比+0.91/-0.90pcts，上半年毛利率同比提升主要系原材料成本较24年同期下降。2)25H1/25Q2公司销 BC两端共同发力，巩固奶酪市场龙头地位。公司坚定执行"聚焦奶酪"和"BC双轮驱动"战略。C端，公司在巩固奶酪棒大单品优势的同时，积极破圈成人休闲零食市场，推出奶酪小三角、云朵芝 B端，公司受益于与爱氏晨曦的业务协同，形成"两油一酪"的产品组合优势，向客户提供一站式解决方案。同时，在国内原奶价格处于低位的背景下，公司加速推进国产原制奶酪对进口的替代， 从市场地位看，根据Worldpanel消费者指 ...

上海妙可蓝多食品科技股份有限公司2025 年半年度报告 公司代码：600882 公司简称：妙可蓝多 上海妙可蓝多食品科技股份有限公司 上海妙可蓝多食品科技股份有限公司2025 年半年度报告 重要提示 一、 本公司董事会及董事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、完整性，不 存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 二、 公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 三、 本半年度报告未经审计。 四、 公司负责人柴琇、主管会计工作负责人蒯玉龙及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）邹明岩 声明：保证半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 五、 董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 无 六、 前瞻性陈述的风险声明 √适用 □不适用 本半年度报告涉及未来计划等前瞻性陈述，不构成公司对投资者的实质性承诺，请投资者注意投 资风险。 七、 是否存在被控股股东及其他关联方非经营性占用资金情况 否 八、 是否存在违反规定决策程序对外提供担保的情况 否 九、 是否存在半数以上董事无法保证公司所披露半年度报告的真实性、准确性和完整性 否 十、 重大风险提示 关于公司所面临的主要风险详见"第三节 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [12]. Core Insights - Miaokelan Duo has transitioned from a niche product leader to an industry trendsetter, focusing on cheese products while optimizing its product structure to enhance profitability [3][10]. - The company is expected to enter a phase of dual improvement in revenue and profit, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin cheese business and cost reductions [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Miaokelan Duo, formerly Guangze Dairy, has been deeply engaged in the cheese sector since 2007 and has established itself as a leading player in China's C-end cheese market [6][19]. - The company has integrated with Mengniu Dairy to strengthen its competitive advantage and is expanding its product offerings across various cheese categories [6][19]. Market Development - The cheese market in China is projected to reach approximately 20.9 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 14.89% from 2010 to 2024 [8][45]. - Despite a recent decline in C-end product sales due to market fluctuations, the cheese stick product line is stabilizing, indicating potential for future growth [8][10]. Product and Capacity Strategy - The company has a comprehensive product matrix covering various cheese types, with a focus on cheese sticks leading the market [9][28]. - Miaokelan Duo operates five modern production bases across China, ensuring robust capacity to meet market demands [9][28]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.844 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 8.99% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 89.16% to 114 million yuan [20]. - The cheese business accounted for 77.56% of total revenue, reflecting a strategic focus on high-margin products [24]. Shareholder Empowerment and Incentives - The company has introduced a dual-track incentive mechanism for its core team, including stock options and employee stock ownership plans, to align interests with shareholders [6][37]. - The incentive plan sets ambitious revenue and profit targets for the next three years, reinforcing the commitment to growth [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - Despite expectations of consumer recovery, Miao Ke Lan Duo, a leading cheese brand, is facing growth bottlenecks, as evidenced by its declining revenue and profit figures in the latest quarterly report [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1, Miao Ke Lan Duo reported revenue of 1.023 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.47%, and a net profit of 24.2 million yuan, down 67.08% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year of 2022, the company experienced a revenue growth of only 7.84%, while net profit and non-recurring net profit fell by 12.32% and 45.14%, respectively [3]. - The company's stock price has halved in less than a year, reaching a historical low of 23.47 yuan per share [3]. Market Challenges - Miao Ke Lan Duo's cheese sales are increasingly difficult, with quarterly revenue growth rates declining from 35.2% to -25% over the past year [4]. - The company attributes its performance issues to logistics disruptions, rising raw material costs, intensified competition, and weak consumer demand [4]. - The cost of goods sold for the cheese business increased by 33.54% to 2.293 billion yuan, leading to a significant drop in gross margin by 7.78 percentage points to 40.48% [4]. Market Dynamics - The retail scale of China's cheese market grew to 14.294 billion yuan in 2022, but the growth rate slowed to 8.9%, indicating a shrinking incremental market for Miao Ke Lan Duo, which holds a 32.7% market share [4]. - A declining birth rate poses a long-term concern for cheese products aimed at children, as evidenced by a drop in birth rates from 18.83 million in 2016 to 10.62 million in 2021 [5]. Competitive Landscape - The cheese stick market has seen a price war since 2020, with discounts ranging from 50% to 80%, making it increasingly challenging for Miao Ke Lan Duo to sell its products [6]. - Despite maintaining a revenue growth of 16% in its cheese business in 2022, the core instant nutrition series saw a slight revenue decline of 0.6% [6]. - Miao Ke Lan Duo's sales expense ratio increased from 16.74% in 2018 to 25.24% in 2022, while revenue growth slowed from 63.2% in 2020 to 7.84% in 2022 [6]. Strategic Initiatives - To address market challenges, Miao Ke Lan Duo launched a line of ambient cheese sticks in 2021, aiming to expand its reach in lower-tier markets [7]. - The company is attempting to replicate the success of the ambient yogurt brand Mosliyan, which achieved significant sales growth before facing competition [7]. - Miao Ke Lan Duo's distribution network is limited compared to competitors like Yili, which has a much larger number of retail outlets and distributors [8]. Distribution and Channel Management - As of 2022, 71.7% of Miao Ke Lan Duo's revenue came from distribution channels, with a net decrease of 145 distributors during the year [8]. - In Q1 of the current year, the number of distributors further declined by 53, attributed to a strategic decision to optimize distributor quality [9]. - The management believes that specialized cheese distributors may perform better than those who also sell liquid milk, indicating a potential shift in channel strategy [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of Miaokelando's stock, which closed at 26.87 yuan on August 5, 2025, with a slight increase of 0.01 yuan, representing a 0.04% rise [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of cheese and dairy products, including cheese sticks, mozzarella cheese, and children's cheese [1] - Miaokelando has introduced the "2025 mid-term report pre-increase" concept, indicating expectations for improved financial performance [1] Group 2 - According to the company's earnings forecast, the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is expected to be between 120 million yuan and 145 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68.1% to 103.12% [1] - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to an increase in product sales and effective cost control measures [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for Miaokelando Company Overview - **Company**: Miaokelando - **Industry**: Cheese Retail Market Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics - After 2022, the cheese retail market experienced a decline, but leading companies like Miaokelando increased their market share, which is currently around 30% [2][3] - Smaller brands are exiting the market due to cost pressures and insufficient R&D capabilities, raising industry barriers [2][3] Business Performance - **C-end (Consumer)**: Miaokelando is diversifying its product matrix beyond low-temperature cheese sticks to include adult cheese snacks, expanding into new channels like Hema and Sam's Club [2][4] - **B-end (Commercial)**: The company has made significant progress in sectors like Western cuisine, baking, and tea drinks, aided by resources from Mengniu and partnerships with major brands like Yum and McDonald's [2][4][12][13] Growth Potential - Miaokelando is positioned for dual growth in revenue and profit, leveraging low milk prices and deep processing to replace imported cheese, thus reducing costs [2][5] - The Chinese cheese market is expected to grow significantly, with a mid-term scale projected to reach 300-400 billion yuan and a long-term potential to exceed 1 trillion yuan [2][6] Management and Strategy - The new management team, which includes nine executives with marketing backgrounds, is focused on business-driven and diversified growth, setting ambitious revenue and profit targets for 2025-2027 [2][9] - The company has launched a stock incentive plan to boost confidence in future performance, targeting a revenue growth rate of 16% by 2026 and 20% by 2027 [9][18] Channel Expansion - Miaokelando is actively exploring new channels, including customized products for Sam's Club and Hema, and entering snack wholesale markets with smaller packaging [2][10] Marketing Innovations - The company is shifting its marketing strategy to include adult-oriented IP resources, signing contracts for IP rights worth 50 million yuan to enhance brand recognition among younger consumers [2][11] B-end Market Development - The B-end market is expected to grow significantly, with the Western fast food market projected to reach approximately 300 billion yuan by 2024, and the tea and coffee market exceeding 500 billion yuan in 2023 [12][14] Support from Mengniu - Mengniu's acquisition of Miaokelando has provided substantial support, including supply chain advantages that help reduce raw material costs and enhance competitiveness [15][16] Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost of domestically produced cheese is now 80-90% of imported cheese, with potential reductions to 70% through better raw milk procurement [17] - This shift is expected to improve gross margins, particularly in the B-end market where cost sensitivity is higher [17] Future Outlook - Miaokelando aims for a net profit margin comparable to international leaders, with a vision to achieve over 10 billion yuan in revenue by 2030 [18] - The company anticipates a doubling of profits and a double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with a projected net profit of 38 to 63 million yuan for Q2 [18][19] Valuation Concerns - There are concerns regarding the high valuation of Miaokelando, with a current P/E ratio of 60, expected to normalize to around 30 by 2027 [20][21] - Despite this, the company is viewed positively due to its unique position in the cheese market and the anticipated profit growth [20][21] Additional Important Insights - The cheese consumption per capita in China is significantly lower than in Japan, South Korea, and Western countries, indicating substantial growth potential in the market [6] - The management's focus on innovation and market expansion is expected to drive future growth and profitability [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The transformation and upgrading of agricultural product consumption is timely, focusing on market demand and new consumption trends to enhance the richness and healthiness of food on people's tables [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Innovations - The dairy market is experiencing a surge in popularity, with products like milk tea and yogurt gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards diverse dairy offerings [1][2]. - In Shaanxi's Fuping County, goat milk has become a flagship product, with an annual processing capacity exceeding 100,000 tons and an annual output value of 2.2 billion yuan, showcasing the potential of niche dairy markets [2]. - Technological advancements in dairy products, such as the development of non-hydrogenated base milk, are addressing health concerns and meeting consumer demand for healthier options [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The success of agricultural products relies on matching high-quality supply with diverse consumer demand, with over 84,000 certified green, organic, and geographical indication products currently available in China [3]. - The rapid growth of rural e-commerce and the emergence of new farmers are enhancing the connection between agricultural products and urban markets, with rural online retail sales expected to grow by 6.4% and agricultural product online sales by 15.8% in 2024 [3][4]. - The need for improved sales channels and market competitiveness is emphasized, as well as the importance of addressing issues such as incomplete industrial chains and insufficient brand development [3]. Group 3: Policy and Strategic Initiatives - A recent implementation plan by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and ten other departments outlines 23 measures across nine areas to boost agricultural product consumption, focusing on optimizing supply, innovating distribution, and activating market demand [4]. - The plan aims to enhance deep processing of agricultural products, strengthen brand building, and create a shared information platform to reduce information asymmetry between production and consumption [4].

Core Viewpoint - The national childcare subsidy policy will provide an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan per child until the age of three, benefiting over 20 million families each year starting from January 1, 2025 [4][5]. Subsidy Standard - Each child will receive a subsidy of 3600 yuan per year until they turn three years old. For children born before January 1, 2025, who are under three years old, the subsidy will be calculated based on the remaining months [8]. Coverage - The policy applies to all families with children under three years old, regardless of whether they have one, two, or three children, and is uniformly implemented across the country [9]. Application Process - Parents or guardians can apply for the subsidy online through the childcare subsidy information management system or offline, providing necessary documents such as birth certificates and household registration books [10]. Funding Source - The central government will establish a "childcare subsidy fund," providing financial support to eastern, central, and western regions proportionally, with any additional local funding being the responsibility of local governments [11]. Market Impact Analysis - The infant food market is expected to exceed 72 billion yuan, directly benefiting the maternal and infant consumption industry chain [12]. - The childcare industry is projected to reach a scale of 162.1 billion yuan by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 7.5%, accelerated by the policy [13]. - Demand for children's medical and nutritional health products is anticipated to rise, with the pediatric medication market expected to grow at a rate exceeding 10% annually [14]. Beneficiary Companies - Leading maternal and infant retail companies are expected to benefit directly from increased customer spending and frequency of purchases [15]. - Companies such as Kidswant and Huaiying Room are positioned to gain from the subsidy implementation due to their extensive retail networks and service offerings [16]. - Major players in the infant formula market, like China Feihe and Yili, are likely to see increased demand driven by the subsidy [17][18].