点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 从渠道角度看，公司陆续进入新兴零售渠道，大力开发即时零售、零食量贩、会员店等渠道。新品如奶酪 小丸子在万辰渠道市场反馈较好，奶酪小三角在线上渠道销售较好，"牛肉+再制奶酪"草原风味零食也于 25年5月正式进驻山姆会员店。 事件： 公司发布2025年半年报预告，经追溯口径预计25H1实现归母净利润1.2-1.45亿元，同比增长68.1-103.1%； 预计实现扣非归母净利润0.9-1.15亿元，同比增长58.2%-102.2%。其中经追溯口径预计25Q2实现归母净利 润3760-6260万元，同比增长13.8%-89.5%；预计实现扣非归母净利润2506-5006万元，同比变化-3.6%至 +92.6%。 25Q2确认股权激励费用，不改利润高增趋势 公司于25年3月实施股权激励计划和员工持股计划，25Q2公司确认相关股份支付费用为1868.69万元，但 25H1公司归母净利润仍实现快速增长，主要系：1）公司主营业务奶酪产品营收同比上升；2）原材料采购 成本下降等因素导致毛利率同比上升；3）公司积极推进各项降本增效措施，销售费用率同比下降。 BC两端共同发力，巩固奶酪市场地位 对于奶 ...

盈利预测与估值 看好公司在奶酪新品开发与原材料国产替代方面的持续投入，增长动能有望不断释放；股权激励计划的 推出将进一步激发管理团队的积极性，我们上调盈利预测， 预计 25-27 年EPS 0.57/0.72/0.83 元（ 较前 次+11%/+10%/+10%），参考25 年可比公司PE 均值25x，公司24-26 年净利CAGR（79%）高于可比均 值（41%），给予公司25 年56xPE，上调目标价至31.90 元（前次31.20 元，对应60x PE），维持"增 持"评级。 公司发布25H1 业绩预告，25H1 预计实现归母净利1.20-1.45 亿元，同比+56.3%~+88.9%，实现扣非净利 0.90-1.15 亿元，同比+58.2%~+102.2%；对应25Q2 归母净利0.38-0.63 亿元，同比+13.8%~+89.4%；扣非 净利0.25-0.50 亿元，同比-3.6%~+92.6%。25Q2 公司确认相关股份支付费用1,868.7 万元，并在电商渠道 增加了部分费用投入，但受益于原材料国产进程提速与整体费用控制措施卓有成效，公司25Q2 净利率 持续录得亮眼表现。展望25 年，即食营 ...

2025 年 7 月 12 日 公司研究 奶酪消费趋势向好，25H1 归母净利实现高增 从市场地位看，以凯度消费者指数为例，2024 年妙可蓝多奶酪销售额市占率超 过 37%，25Q1 销售额市占率提升至 39%以上，稳居市场第一。 未来随着新品驱动和渠道扩张，公司 BC 两端有望共同发力支撑增长；经营恢复 下，公司利润弹性有望释放。 盈利预测、估值与评级：我们维持公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润预测分别为 2.16/3.24/4.57 亿元，折合 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.42/0.63/0.89 元，对应 PE 分别为 67x/45x/32x。公司 C 端奶酪龙头地位稳固，奶酪行业增长空间较大， 我们维持"增持"评级。 ——妙可蓝多（600882.SH）2025 年半年报预告点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报预告，经追溯口径预计 25H1 实现归母净利润 1.2-1.45 亿元，同比增长 68.1-103.1%；预计实现扣非归母净利润 0.9-1.15 亿元， 同比增长 58.2%-102.2%。其中经追溯口径预计 25Q2 实现归母净利润 3760-6260 万元，同 ...

线下合作山姆、盒马等高势能渠道，有望持续上新。今年5 月，公司上架了新品"牛肉+再制奶酪"，将 牛肉风干小香肠+超干牛肉+再制奶酪打包成为"内蒙草原风味小零食"；今年3 月，公司联合盒马推出鳕 鱼奶酪条，定位佐酒伴侣，抢占成人零食赛道。公司在山姆、盒马等线下新零售渠道推出特色新品，展 现公司在奶酪领域的产品力与品牌力，基于公司领先的产品研发能力，我们期待未来公司将更多新品打 入高势能渠道。 盈利预测及投资评级：我们预计公司2025-27 年实现营收56.36/65.49/76.08 亿元，同比增长 16.35%/16.21%/16.17%，实现归母净利润2.35/3.42/4.36 亿元，同比增长107.15%/45.47%/27.41%，对应 PE分别为68X/47X/37X，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、与蒙牛奶酪业务整合不及预期、原材料价格大幅波动、产品推新效果不及预 期、食品安全问题等 25Q2 公司持续推新、拓宽渠道，C 端及B 端的产品均引领国内奶酪行业的发展，基于公司在产品、品 牌、渠道的核心竞争力，我们看好公司未来的持续成长，朝着百亿营收的目标坚实迈进。 聚集奶酪核心业务，C 端 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日，妙可蓝多（600882）在接受机构调研时透露，公司奶酪整体市占率已提升至 39% 以上，延续了行业龙头地位。这一数据与 2025 年一季度财报形成呼应 ——尽管 2024 年营收同比下滑 8.99%，但今年一季度营收 12.33 亿元同比增长 6.26%，归母净利润 8239.67 万元同比激增 114.88%，展 现出转型调整后的阶段性成果。然而，收入结构失衡、供应链短板与研发投入不足等深层问题，仍让这 家 "奶酪一哥" 的未来充满变数。 营收 "V 型" 反转下的隐忧 研发投入与市场竞争的双重挤压 尽管公司 "慕斯奶酪关键技术" 荣获行业技术进步一等奖，但研发投入持续萎缩的问题依然突出。2024 年研发费用同比减少10.25%，占营收比例仅 1%，远低于国际乳企 3%-5% 的水平。这导致产品创新乏 力，面对奶酪博士 "高钙低盐" 的差异化竞争，以及 Kiri "甜心小酪" 等进口品牌的冲击，妙可蓝多在中 高端市场的话语权亟待提升。 市场集中度提升的同时，竞争格局愈发白热化。凯度数据显示，2024 年妙可蓝多奶酪市占率超 37%， 但外资品牌 Kiri 销售额突破 5 亿元 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The domestic dairy industry is transitioning from liquid to solid products, with current per capita cheese consumption remaining low, indicating significant growth potential [1] - The "Healthy China" policy and weight management needs are driving demand for high-quality protein and dairy fat, further enhancing cheese's role as a natural nutritional carrier [1] - The penetration rate of cheese in Western cuisine, tea and coffee, and baking is continuously increasing, with chain brands frequently using products like mozzarella, cheese sauce, mascarpone, and butter, which is educating consumers and boosting demand [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The synergy between B-end (business) and C-end (consumer) demand is expected to create a phenomenon-level product, propelling solid dairy products towards a trillion-level market segment [1] - The ongoing research by industry associations regarding the implementation of cheese policies in schools suggests a trend towards "high-protein dairy products in schools," which could create structural opportunities for cheese in student meals [1] Group 3: E-commerce Strategy - The company is integrating Mengniu cheese for online dual-brand layout and optimizing operations on traditional e-commerce platforms like JD, Tmall, and Pinduoduo, while also expanding into interest e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [2] - In 2024, the company's online sales reached 378 million yuan with a gross margin of 41.56%, and the company plans to continue enhancing collaborations with major platforms [2] - During the "618" shopping festival, the company's e-commerce business performed exceptionally well, ranking first in the cheese/dairy category across all platforms, with strong sales of new products [2] Group 4: IP Cooperation - The company signed an IP rights usage service contract with its controlling shareholder, Mengniu, committing to a total of 52 million yuan in pre-tax expenses from 2025 to 2027 for diverse IP cooperation and brand marketing activities [3] - The collaboration aims to leverage marketing planning, media investment, and consulting services from the controlling shareholder to enhance brand exposure and consumer recognition [3] - The company plans to improve the efficiency of sales expenses while maintaining overall scale stability, focusing on enhancing promotional effectiveness [3]

Core Viewpoint - Miaokelando (SH600882) achieved a remarkable 115% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter, significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating a strong internal growth trend despite industry challenges [1] Financial Performance - In the first quarter, Miaokelando reported revenue of approximately 1.233 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 6%, with cheese business revenue growing by more than 17% [1] - The company's net profit growth rate reached a three-year high for the first quarter, contrasting with previous years where net profit growth was sluggish despite rising revenues [1] Industry Context - The domestic dairy market is facing challenges, with a 2.3% decline in overall dairy sales and a 3.7% drop in liquid milk sales in 2024 [2] - Major dairy companies like Yili, Mengniu, and Guangming reported significant declines in liquid milk revenue, with decreases of 12%, 11%, and 9% respectively [2] - The price of fresh milk continues to decline, with a reported price of 3.08 yuan per kilogram in March 2025, down 1.0% month-on-month and 13.1% year-on-year [2] Strategic Initiatives - Miaokelando's growth strategy includes product innovation, expanding consumption scenarios, and cost control [3][4] - The company has accelerated the launch of new products, diversifying its offerings to include various cheese formats and targeting both children and adults [3] - The expansion of consumption scenarios includes partnerships with restaurants and food brands to incorporate cheese into various dishes, enhancing market penetration [3] - Cost control measures involve sourcing domestic milk to reduce expenses and focusing on developing core products to streamline operations and improve margins [5][6] Value Chain Development - The company emphasizes the importance of managing the entire cheese production value chain, including the utilization of by-products like whey to create high-value products [6] - The development of high-value whey protein products is seen as a key opportunity for growth in the sports nutrition market, which is currently dominated by imports [6] - The focus on deep processing of cheese is expected to enhance the value chain and unlock significant industry potential, transforming the dairy sector [6]