数据分析公司尼尔森IQ的零售和商业洞察部门主管迈克·沃特金斯（Mike Watkins）补充说："食品 价格上涨反映了多重因素的叠加。除了全球供应链成本增加外，天气条件引发的季节性食品通胀，以及 大型体育赛事结束后促销活动减少，也进一步推高了价格。随着部分消费者结束暑假返校，许多家庭可 能需要重新评估家庭预算，以应对不断增加的支出。" 尽管非食品类商品价格整体下降0.8%，但仍难以阻挡8月商店整体价格通胀升势。迪金森指 出："零售商正尽一切努力限制价格上涨，但行业仍面临约70亿英镑新增成本，包括去年秋季预算案中 关于雇主国民保险缴费和最低工资的调整。" 《卫报》在近日报道中披露，上周包括特易购（Tesco）、森宝利（Sainsbury's）和博姿（Boots） 在内的60多位零售高管已联名致信财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves），警告若秋季预算进一步 提高税收，将与政府改善生活水平的目标相矛盾。 英国食品价格持续上涨。 来自英国零售商协会（BRC）的商店价格监测报告显示，英国8月食品通胀率达到4.2%，创18个月 来最快涨幅，高于7月的4%，刷新自2024年2月以来的最高水平。鸡蛋、黄油等主要 ...

赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [妙Ta可bl蓝e_多Sto(c6k0A0n8d8Ra2n)k] 上次评级 买入 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] BC 双轮驱动，提质增效显利润 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 投资评级 买入 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年半年报。25H1，公司实现营业收入 25.67 亿元， 同比+7.98%；归母净利润 1.33 亿元，同比+86.27%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.02 亿元，同比+80.10%。其中，25Q2 公司实现营业收入 13.34 亿元，同 比+9.62%；归母净利润 5057 万元，同比+53.06%。 点评： 风险因素：食品安全问题，行业竞争加剧 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 奶酪推 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.95 CNY, reflecting a calculated equity value of 169 billion CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's industrial catering business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant potential for margin improvement in single product categories. The overall gross margin has decreased due to a higher proportion of lower-margin industrial catering products, but there is substantial room for improvement in individual product margins as domestic raw material substitution increases [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 25.7 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing an 8.0% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.3 billion CNY, up 86.3% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue reached 13.3 billion CNY (+9.6%) and net profit was 0.5 billion CNY (+53.1%) [10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.602 billion CNY, 6.485 billion CNY, and 7.482 billion CNY, respectively, with expected growth rates of 15.7%, 15.8%, and 15.4% [8]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 35.5%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increased share of lower-margin industrial catering products [10]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.46 CNY, 0.63 CNY, and 0.83 CNY, respectively [2][8].

本报记者 张文湘 见习记者 占健宇 8月22日晚，上海妙可蓝多食品科技股份有限公司（以下简称"妙可蓝多"）发布2025年半年报，2025年 上半年，妙可蓝多实现营业收入25.67亿元，同比增长7.98%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.33亿 元，较上年同期大幅增长86.27%。 公开资料显示，妙可蓝多主营业务为以奶酪为核心的特色乳制品的研发、生产和销售，其中奶酪产品可 以进一步细分为即食营养系列、家庭餐桌系列和餐饮工业系列。 半年报显示，2025年上半年，妙可蓝多与蒙牛奶酪双品牌融合协同效应增强，即食营养系列、餐饮工业 系列、家庭餐桌系列分别实现营业收入10.83亿元、8.16亿元、2.36亿元，三大奶酪产品系列均延续正增 长。其中，餐饮工业系列营业收入同比增长36.26%，同时国产奶酪进程推进亦带来毛利率持续提升； 家庭餐桌系列受益于渠道合作深化及整合带来的优势品项扩充，营业收入同比增长28.44%。 细分来看，今年上半年，即食营养奶酪方面，儿童营养奶酪系列已形成涵盖多款不同形态产品的矩阵， 全面覆盖儿童食用场景；成人休闲奶酪系列推出奶酪小三角、云朵芝士等新品以及多款功能奶酪产品。 同时，公司不断拓宽常 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 妙可蓝多（600882） 2025 年中报点评：BC 双驱，成长确立 2025 年 08 月 22 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,322 | 4,844 | 5,370 | 6,160 | 7,120 | | 同比（%） | 10.20 | (8.99) | 10.87 | 14.71 | 15.58 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 60.07 | 113.62 | 282.23 | 382.69 | 486.42 | | 同比（%） | (56.35) | 89.16 | 148.40 | 35.59 | 27.10 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 0.95 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 237.93 | 125.78 | 50.64 | 37.34 | 29.38 | [关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a significant strategic transformation, shifting from a "scale expansion" model reliant on market penetration and capacity expansion to a "value enhancement" model focused on technological innovation, product differentiation, and value chain extension [5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The B-end dairy market is emerging as a new growth point, attracting major players like Mengniu and Yili, as the C-end market becomes saturated and competition intensifies [6][9]. - The total scale of the B-end dairy market has expanded to a trillion-level, driven by the rapid rise of coffee, baking, and tea industries, which have a growing demand for dairy products [9][12]. - The coffee market alone is projected to see a sales volume of 3.3 billion cups in 2023, with a growth rate of 37.5%, expected to reach 5 billion cups by 2025 [9][12]. Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - The domestic B-end market, particularly for high-end products like cream and cheese, has been dominated by international brands, with a domestic replacement rate of less than 30% [13][15]. - Domestic dairy companies are making strides in technology and production processes, which is breaking the previous dominance of foreign brands [13][15]. - The average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces has decreased, providing a cost advantage for domestic dairy companies in the B-end market [16]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Major dairy companies are rapidly expanding their B-end business through partnerships with restaurant chains and other strategies [20][21]. - Mengniu has launched a professional catering brand and focused on specific product lines to meet diverse professional needs [21][23]. - Yili has established a professional dairy application innovation center and expanded its B2B platform to enhance its B-end market presence [23][24]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The B-end market offers stable customer bases and large order volumes, which can lead to lower production costs and more direct market insights for dairy companies [27]. - However, competition in the B-end market is distinct from the C-end, focusing on product specialization, customization, and supply chain efficiency [29][30]. - Barriers to entry, such as technology, scale, and brand reputation, make it challenging for new entrants to compete effectively in the B-end market [32].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.09% to 24,929.34 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.39% to 5,438.57 points [1] - The year-to-date performance of the Hang Seng Index is up 24.27%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index is up 21.72% [2] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance: Alibaba fell by 1.35%, Tencent by 0.27%, while JD.com rose by 0.16% and Xiaomi by 0.79% [2] - Apple-related stocks performed strongly, with Hon Teng Precision rising over 7% and BYD Electronics over 4% [3] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector saw significant gains, with Modern Dairy up over 15%, China Shengmu up over 11%, and other companies like Mengniu Dairy and Nongfu Spring also rising [3][4] - A new subsidy policy for families with infants is expected to boost dairy consumption, particularly in low-tier cities, benefiting the infant formula market [4] Dairy Industry Insights - The dairy industry is transitioning from scale expansion to value enhancement, with solid dairy products like cheese and butter gaining traction [4] - The B-end dairy market is projected to exceed 40 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 14.3% expected from 2025 to 2028 [4] Beer Industry Outlook - The beer industry is expected to maintain stable consumption, with a long-term trend towards premiumization [5] - The exploration of second growth curves is anticipated to open up long-term growth opportunities [5] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw gains, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 3% [6] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 10% to 13% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth for Hua Hong Semiconductor in Q3, with a gross margin expectation of 10% to 12% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The source of dietary fat significantly influences anti-tumor immunity in obese individuals, with animal fats impairing immune response and promoting tumor growth, while plant fats do not have this negative effect [5][7][9]. Group 1: Research Findings - A study published in Nature Metabolism indicates that high-fat diets based on animal fats (lard, beef tallow, or butter) weaken anti-tumor immunity in obese mice and accelerate tumor growth [5][7]. - In contrast, high-fat diets based on plant oils (coconut oil, palm oil, or olive oil) do not exhibit this detrimental effect, with palm oil even enhancing anti-tumor immunity and slowing tumor growth in obese mice [5][7][9]. - The research highlights that the metabolic byproducts of animal fats, particularly long-chain acylcarnitines, strongly inhibit NK and CTL cells, leading to impaired immune function [9]. Group 2: Implications for Cancer Treatment - The findings suggest that dietary modifications, such as replacing animal fats with plant oils, could be beneficial for obese cancer patients undergoing treatment, potentially lowering their cancer risk [5][6][9]. - The study emphasizes the importance of dietary fat composition in maintaining a healthy immune system and improving treatment outcomes for obese individuals with cancer [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a structural transformation, shifting from liquid milk dominance to growth driven by solid dairy products like cheese and butter, which are gaining traction in B-end dining scenarios [5][13] - The domestic market is experiencing a significant trend towards local product substitution, driven by policy support, cost advantages, and technological advancements [14][25] - The B-end dairy product market is projected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2024, with an expected CAGR of 14.3% from 2025 to 2028, reaching approximately 70.3 billion yuan by 2028 [7][17] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The B-end market expansion is driving rapid growth in high-value products such as cheese and butter, with local substitution trends continuing to evolve due to policy support, cost advantages, and technological improvements [14][25] - The report draws parallels with Japan's dairy industry, highlighting the importance of high-value innovation in driving structural upgrades [15] Domestic Market Insights - The B-end dairy product market is expected to grow significantly, with applications in various sectors including Western cuisine, baking, and tea drinks, indicating a diverse penetration landscape [17][24] - Key players like Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, and Yili are accelerating their B-end product and deep processing capacity layouts to capitalize on this growth [17][18] International Insights - The report highlights the strategic insights from international giants like Meiji and Fonterra, emphasizing the importance of R&D capabilities and customized services in B-end competition [6][16] - Meiji's proposal-based sales and Fonterra's co-creation model with clients are noted as effective strategies for enhancing competitive advantages [6][16] Product Segmentation - Solid dairy products such as cheese and butter are expected to benefit from consumer trends towards health and nutrition, with their market share in China currently low but poised for significant growth [20][21] - The report indicates that the current consumption structure in China is heavily weighted towards liquid milk, but the shift towards solid dairy products is anticipated to accelerate [19][20]

Group 1: Butter Price Surge - In New Zealand, butter prices have surged by 46.5% year-on-year, with a 500g block costing approximately 36.7 RMB, leading to a national crisis perception [1] - The CEO of Fonterra defended high prices, claiming it is beneficial for the country, which drew strong criticism [1] - The butter crisis is not limited to New Zealand; France predicts a potential butter shortage before Christmas, and UK butter prices have reached a 12-year high at around 46.6 RMB for 500g [1] Group 2: Cultural and Market Influences - The popularity of the novel "Butter" by Asako Yuzuki, which symbolizes suppressed desires, reflects a cultural shift towards Western, butter-rich baked goods among the middle class in Asia and the Middle East [2][3] - Countries like Saudi Arabia have surpassed the UK in butter imports, with Indonesia, UAE, South Korea, and Mexico following closely [3] - The trend is evident on social media, with Korean baking chains gaining significant traction, and Japan's team winning at the World Pastry Cup, indicating a growing global interest in high-quality dairy products [3]