赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [妙Ta可bl蓝e_多Sto(c6k0A0n8d8Ra2n)k] 上次评级 买入 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] BC 双轮驱动，提质增效显利润 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 投资评级 买入 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年半年报。25H1，公司实现营业收入 25.67 亿元， 同比+7.98%；归母净利润 1.33 亿元，同比+86.27%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.02 亿元，同比+80.10%。其中，25Q2 公司实现营业收入 13.34 亿元，同 比+9.62%；归母净利润 5057 万元，同比+53.06%。 点评： 风险因素：食品安全问题，行业竞争加剧 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 奶酪推 ...

本报记者 张文湘 见习记者 占健宇 8月22日晚，上海妙可蓝多食品科技股份有限公司（以下简称"妙可蓝多"）发布2025年半年报，2025年 上半年，妙可蓝多实现营业收入25.67亿元，同比增长7.98%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.33亿 元，较上年同期大幅增长86.27%。 公开资料显示，妙可蓝多主营业务为以奶酪为核心的特色乳制品的研发、生产和销售，其中奶酪产品可 以进一步细分为即食营养系列、家庭餐桌系列和餐饮工业系列。 半年报显示，2025年上半年，妙可蓝多与蒙牛奶酪双品牌融合协同效应增强，即食营养系列、餐饮工业 系列、家庭餐桌系列分别实现营业收入10.83亿元、8.16亿元、2.36亿元，三大奶酪产品系列均延续正增 长。其中，餐饮工业系列营业收入同比增长36.26%，同时国产奶酪进程推进亦带来毛利率持续提升； 家庭餐桌系列受益于渠道合作深化及整合带来的优势品项扩充，营业收入同比增长28.44%。 细分来看，今年上半年，即食营养奶酪方面，儿童营养奶酪系列已形成涵盖多款不同形态产品的矩阵， 全面覆盖儿童食用场景；成人休闲奶酪系列推出奶酪小三角、云朵芝士等新品以及多款功能奶酪产品。 同时，公司不断拓宽常 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 妙可蓝多（600882） 2025 年中报点评：BC 双驱，成长确立 2025 年 08 月 22 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,322 | 4,844 | 5,370 | 6,160 | 7,120 | | 同比（%） | 10.20 | (8.99) | 10.87 | 14.71 | 15.58 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 60.07 | 113.62 | 282.23 | 382.69 | 486.42 | | 同比（%） | (56.35) | 89.16 | 148.40 | 35.59 | 27.10 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 0.95 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 237.93 | 125.78 | 50.64 | 37.34 | 29.38 | [关 ...

Group 1 - The cheese consumption penetration rate in China is significantly lower than that in Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the US, indicating a large growth potential for the industry [1][2] - The current per capita cheese consumption in China is only 0.2 kg, compared to Japan's 1.8 kg, suggesting substantial room for improvement [2] - The domestic cheese market is still in its growth phase, with a stable competitive landscape and low self-sufficiency rate, necessitating the release of local production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The leading company, Miaokelando, is expected to enhance its market position through channel integration and cost reduction in the short term, while focusing on deep processing for long-term growth [2] - Miaokelando maintains a leading market share and is strengthening its competitive advantage through partnerships with Mengniu and continuous product innovation [2] - The company is diversifying its distribution channels and expanding collaborations with restaurants and industrial enterprises to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [4][10]. Core Views - The company is actively enriching its product matrix and strengthening its ambient products, enhancing C-end channel diversification and B-end channel synergy after integrating Mengniu Cheese, leading to a significant improvement in profitability for H1 2025 [2][10]. - The company expects a notable increase in net profit for H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 56.29%-88.86% [10]. - The integration of Mengniu Cheese has strengthened synergy across the entire operation, from procurement to sales, enhancing efficiency and profitability [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is 5,322 million yuan, with projections of 4,844 million yuan for 2024, and expected growth to 5,313 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 9.7% increase [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 60 million yuan in 2023 to 225 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 97.7% [3][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.12 yuan in 2023 to 0.44 yuan in 2025, with a projected net asset return rate of 4.9% in 2025 [3][11]. Market Data - The company's target price is set at 33.20 yuan, with a current price of 28.34 yuan [4][10]. - The market capitalization is approximately 14,512 million yuan, with a 52-week price range of 11.78-32.69 yuan [5][10]. Financial Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 241.60 in 2023 to 64.61 in 2025, indicating improved valuation [3][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 1.3% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2025, reflecting enhanced profitability [3][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its product matrix and strengthening its ambient product offerings, integrating Mengniu Cheese to diversify C-end channels and synergize B-end channels, leading to a significant improvement in profitability by H1 2025 [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The investment rating has been upgraded to "Buy." The company's EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 0.44 (+0.01), 0.64 (+0.01), and 0.85 (+0.01) yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 97.7%, 46.8%, and 32.6% respectively [2]. - The company expects a significant increase in profitability for H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.29%-88.86%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 90-115 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 58.22%-102.16% [2]. - Following the acquisition of Mengniu Cheese, the company reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 68.10%-103.12% when compared to adjusted data, with a similar growth rate for net profit excluding non-recurring items [2]. Product and Channel Innovation - The company is focusing on its core cheese business, continuously enriching and optimizing its product matrix. The C-end cheese sticks are expanding from low-temperature to ambient products, with new product forms being introduced to enhance coverage in family dining and ready-to-eat nutrition scenarios [3]. - The B-end operates dual brands with complementary products, leveraging Mengniu Cheese's strengths in cream and butter, while Miaokelando's main B-end products include mozzarella, cheese slices, and original cheese, enhancing collaborative synergies [3]. - The C-end channel strategy is evolving from a focus on key accounts to a more diversified approach, actively expanding into growth channels such as snack retail, membership stores, and convenience stores, while strengthening partnerships with restaurants and industrial enterprises in the B-end [3]. Integration and Efficiency Enhancement - The integration of Mengniu Cheese has strengthened collaboration across the entire value chain, from upstream procurement to downstream sales, enhancing operational management and brand effects [3]. - The company is advancing refined and precise management operations, with expectations of further improvements in net profit margins through enhanced sales and management efficiency [3].

Group 1 - The company continues to innovate and expand channels, leading the domestic cheese industry with both C-end and B-end products, aiming for a revenue target of 10 billion [1] - The core cheese business is driven by both C-end and B-end, with three main product series: ready-to-eat nutritional cheese, family table cheese, and catering industrial cheese [1] - In the ready-to-eat nutritional cheese series, the company launched several new products in the first half of 2025, focusing on expanding the adult cheese market [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes the layout and deep cultivation of e-commerce platforms, achieving significant results during the 618 shopping festival, ranking first in the cheese/dairy category across all platforms [2] - New products such as cheese cups and cheese triangles performed exceptionally well, with strong sales for the dual-brand cheese sticks and other cheese products [2] - The company is collaborating with high-potential offline channels like Sam's Club and Hema, showcasing its product and brand strength in the cheese sector [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 5.636 billion, 6.549 billion, and 7.608 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.35%, 16.21%, and 16.17% respectively [3] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is 235 million, 342 million, and 436 million, with significant year-on-year growth rates of 107.15%, 45.47%, and 27.41% [3] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with corresponding PE ratios of 68X, 47X, and 37X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its C-end channel diversification and B-end channel synergy after integrating Mengniu Cheese, aiming to enrich its product matrix and strengthen ambient products, which, along with optimized management and improved cost efficiency, is expected to drive a performance turnaround [1]. Investment Highlights - The company is initiating coverage with a "cautious buy" rating, focusing on product innovation and matrix enrichment, accelerating C-end channel diversification, and increasing B-end expansion post-Mengniu integration. Improved management precision is anticipated to significantly enhance net profit margins. EPS is projected to be 0.43, 0.63, and 0.84 yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 94.4%, 45.4%, and 34.6% respectively. Given the expected improvement in net profit margins and substantial growth potential compared to peers, a valuation of 3.1X P/S for 2025 is suggested, corresponding to a fair value of 31.92 yuan per share [2]. Product and Channel Innovation - The company is focusing on its core cheese business, continuously enriching and optimizing its product matrix. C-end cheese sticks are expanding from low-temperature to ambient products, with new product forms being introduced. The B-end operates dual brands with complementary products, leveraging Mengniu's strengths in cream and butter, while the main brand excels in mozzarella, cheese slices, and original cheese. The C-end is diversifying from key accounts to include growth channels like snack wholesale, membership stores, and convenience stores, while the B-end is expanding collaborations with food service and industrial companies. Following Mengniu's acquisition in 2021, the number of retail terminal outlets increased from 600,000 in 2021 to approximately 800,000 in 2022, with further expansion expected [3]. Synergy and Efficiency Enhancement - After integrating Mengniu Cheese, the company is strengthening synergy and mutual empowerment across the entire value chain, from upstream procurement to downstream sales and management. The company is actively promoting refined and precise management operations, with expectations of a noticeable improvement in net profit margins through enhanced sales and management efficiency [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is preparing for the 2024 Annual General Meeting (AGM) and has outlined the procedures and key agenda items for the meeting, including the review of various reports and proposals related to its operations and governance [1][2][4]. Group 1: Meeting Procedures - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining order during the AGM and requires attendees to present identification and authorization documents [1][2]. - Voting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online methods, with specific rules regarding late arrivals and participation [2][3]. - Attendees are reminded to respect the meeting's decorum and cooperate with staff to ensure a smooth process [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported a total revenue of CNY 4.84 billion, a decrease of 8.99% compared to the previous year [20][21]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 113.62 million, reflecting a significant increase of 89.16% year-on-year [6][21]. - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of CNY 530.73 million, marking a substantial improvement of 101.28% from the previous year [6][21]. Group 3: Business Strategy and Operations - The company continues to focus on its core cheese business, which generated revenue of CNY 3.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.92% [6][7]. - The company has implemented various operational measures to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, contributing to improved profit margins [6][7]. - Product innovation remains a priority, with new offerings such as preservative-free cheese sticks and seasonal products aimed at expanding market share [8][9]. Group 4: Governance and Compliance - The board of directors has adhered to legal and regulatory requirements, holding 14 meetings and convening 5 AGMs during the reporting period [13][14]. - The company has established specialized committees to support governance, including a strategic committee and an audit committee, which have met regularly to oversee key decisions [14][15]. - The company plans to revise its articles of association to align with new regulatory guidelines and enhance corporate governance [27][28].