对话鹏华基金王云鹏：化工破局 -2026 价值投资如何反内 卷反脆弱？20260120 摘要 当前处于康波萧条期，主导国货币体系稳固性下降，黄金牛市显现，全 社会生产效率瓶颈亟待技术革命突破。投资组合配置黄金、煤炭和油运 等反脆弱资产，增强抗风险能力。 化工板块正经历周期复苏和成长升级的关键拐点，2025 年下半年盈利 周期、库存周期、产能周期、供给状态、需求状态和筹码状态耦合，行 业龙头估值修复和供需拐点细分行业带来投资机会。 精细化工受益于宏观经济复苏，EPS 层面已现积极信号，具备戴维斯双 击潜力；农化板块 EPS 弹性大，关注供需缺口带来的投资机会，选股需 重视企业利用周期收益的能力。 化工行业需求受益于新能源汽车、储能、AI 等新兴产业，全球 GDP 增 长拉动出口，但供应端受限于政策对新增产能的双碳指标考核，预计 2024 年起供给迎来拐点。 国家对传统制造业提质升级和低碳绿色发展要求，将抑制化工行业新产 能扩张，推动低效老旧产能退出，长期利好行业价格体系稳定。 Q&A 请介绍一下您进入行业以来的研究与投资历程，以及您管理的两只产品的定位 和特点。 我本科和研究生均在南京大学学习化学，2017 年 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various fund indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a year-to-date increase of 13.75% and the stock fund index rising by 22.90% [3][4] - The report emphasizes the strategic adjustments made to the fund's key holdings, focusing on active management equity products and fixed income plus varieties [5][6][11] Fund Key Pool Updates - The report lists 23 newly added active management equity products, including Huashang Upstream Industry A and Penghua China 50, among others [5][11] - Fixed income plus products include Jiao Yin Zeng Li Bond A and Jiao Yin An Xin Income A, while bond-type products feature Huazhang Zhongyue 60-Day Rolling Holding A and Jiahe Pantai Short Bond A [6][12][13] - The ETF category includes Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF and Consumption ETF [7][14] Portfolio Operation Tracking and Adjustments - As of September 5, 2025, the monthly report portfolio has achieved a return of 14.93% with a maximum drawdown of -5.21% [8][29] - Adjustments made to the four major fund portfolios include increasing allocations to Hong Kong stocks and cyclical assets, optimizing the balance of products and bond types [8][29] - The report indicates that the portfolio's risk-adjusted returns are competitive compared to similar FOF products and indices [29]

Group 1 - The report identifies investment opportunities in various industries under the "anti-involution" theme, drawing parallels with the supply-side reform period from 2015 to 2018, focusing on policy effects, inventory cycles, and industry prosperity [1][8] - The current "anti-involution" theme has a broader industry coverage, with a positive outlook on photovoltaic and medical devices based on their clearing reversal elasticity, while chemicals and building materials are favored for their certainty in prosperity [2][14] Group 2 - The report outlines the criteria for selecting actively managed equity funds related to the "anti-involution" theme, requiring a significant holding in relevant industry stocks and a minimum fund size [3][16] - For ETF funds, a scoring system based on various performance metrics is used to identify the top products in the same category [3][16]