| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2026/02/09 | 375.60 | 422.78 | -9.21 | 665.89 | -243.11 | 22.24 | 47.18 | | 2026/02/10 | 375.29 | 420.18 | -9.00 | 657.32 | -237.14 | 21.50 | 44.89 | | 2026/02/11 | 379.35 | 426.72 | -9.44 | 671.86 | -245.14 | 22.75 | 47.37 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the near - month of Singapore 380cst continued to strengthen, reaching a five - year high year - on - year. After the crack spread rose, it fluctuated. Short - term arbitrage logistics tightened, and Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased significantly. The low - sulfur crack spread of MF0.5 declined, reaching a historical low year - on - year, and the monthly spread was at a historical low for the same period. In terms of inventory, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased significantly, EIA residue oil continued to be depleted, ARA residue oil inventory increased, and the inventory increase in Fujairah accelerated. Under the new situation in Venezuela, heavy - oil logistics tilted towards the United States. Canadian heavy oil is seeking new buyers, and the price of Merey crude oil has risen. Recently, the Iran situation and arbitrage logistics have affected 380. High - sulfur spot tightened, and the crack spread rebounded. In the short term, high - sulfur has the strongest driving force among oil products. Attention should be paid to over - heating of internal and external sentiment, and the low - sulfur external market remains weak [3][4] Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, and Rotterdam VLSFO - H SFO M1 increased by 14.86, 16.77, 17.25, and 1.91 respectively. The Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 and LGO - Brent M1 spreads changed by 0.51 and 0.00 respectively, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 spread changed by - 0.48 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - **Swap Data**: From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, and Singapore VLSFO M1 increased, while the Singapore GO M1 price also showed an upward trend. The spreads of Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 and Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 changed accordingly [1] - **Spot Data**: From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the FOB 380cst and FOB VLSFO prices in Singapore increased by 5.89 and 2.53 respectively. The 380 - basis increased by 1.61, the high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by 0.2, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased by 0.7 [2] Domestic FU Data - From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 increased by 29, 24, and 30 respectively. The spreads of FU 01 - 05, FU 05 - 09, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 5, - 6, and 1 respectively [2] Domestic LU Data - From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 increased by 21, 40, and 33 respectively. The spreads of LU 01 - 05, LU 05 - 09, and LU 09 - 01 changed by - 19, 7, and 12 respectively [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the near - term of Singapore 380cst continued to strengthen, reaching a five - year high year - on - year. The crack spread increased and then fluctuated. Short - term arbitrage logistics tightened, and Singapore residue inventory decreased significantly. [3] - The low - sulfur crack spread of MF0.5 declined, reaching a historical low year - on - year, and the monthly spread was at a historical low for the same period. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased significantly, EIA residue inventory continued to decline, ARA residue inventory increased, and Fujairah inventory accumulation accelerated. [4] - Under the new situation in Venezuela, heavy - oil logistics tilted towards the United States. Canadian heavy oil was seeking new buyers, and the price of Merey crude oil increased. Recently, the situation in Iran and arbitrage logistics affected 380. High - sulfur spot tightened, the crack spread rebounded, and high - sulfur had the strongest driving force in oil products in the short term. The low - sulfur external market remained weak. [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 27, 2026, to February 2, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 18.54, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 18.54, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 1.24, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 68.27, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 49.73, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 3.82, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 remained unchanged. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 27, 2026, to February 2, 2026, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased, Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased, Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 27, 2026, to February 2, 2026, FOB 380cst decreased by 12.53, FOB VLSFO decreased by 15.56, the 380 basis increased by 4.35, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 3.0, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 4.9. [2] Domestic FU Data - From January 27, 2026, to February 2, 2026, FU 01 decreased by 109, FU 05 decreased by 134, FU 09 decreased by 122, FU 01 - 05 increased by 25, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 12, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 13. [2] Domestic LU Data - From January 27, 2026, to February 2, 2026, LU 01 decreased by 184, LU 05 decreased by 139, LU 09 decreased by 149, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 45, LU 05 - 09 increased by 10, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 35. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 strengthened, and the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur EW oscillated at a high level. The cracking of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounded month - on - month, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a small inventory build - up, with the inventory at a historical high year - on - year, ARA residue oil had a small inventory draw - down, and Fujairah residue oil had an inventory build - up. This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy - oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high - sulfur was stronger than that of low - sulfur, the high - sulfur spot tightened, the cracking rebounded, and the short - term downside was limited, while the low - sulfur external market remained weak [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed from 338.39 to 336.42, a decrease of 4.64; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed from 393.07 to 385.25, a decrease of 4.33; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 11.61 to - 10.40, a change of - 0.31; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 634.60 to 636.65, an increase of 2.45; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 241.53 to - 251.40, a decrease of 6.78; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 21.98 to 23.36, an increase of 0.17; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 54.68 to 48.83, a decrease of 0.31 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During January 13 - 19, 2026, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed from 346.25 to 360.61, an increase of 3.77; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed from 353.19 to 365.42, an increase of 2.15; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed from 422.84 to 429.94, an increase of 3.49; for Singapore GO M1, it changed from 81.26 to 83.40, an increase of 1.89; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from - 8.90 to - 6.58, a change of 0.21; for Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 178.48 to - 187.22, a decrease of 10.50 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for FOB 380cst, the price changed from 344.30 to 359.26, an increase of 0.92; for FOB VLSFO, it changed from 424.25 to 431.00, an increase of 1.63; the 380 basis changed from - 1.80 to - 1.45, an increase of 0.20; the high - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 13.4 to 12.6, a decrease of 1.1; the low - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 15.8 to 15.6, an increase of 0.3 [2] Domestic FU Data - Between January 13 and 19, 2026, for FU 01, the price changed from 2451 to 2478, a change of - 7; for FU 05, it changed from 2469 to 2526, an increase of 6; for FU 09, it changed from 2467 to 2500, an increase of 2; for FU 01 - 05, it changed from - 18 to - 48, a decrease of 13; for FU 05 - 09, it changed from 2 to 26, an increase of 4; for FU 09 - 01, it changed from 16 to 22, an increase of 9 [2] Domestic LU Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for LU 01, the price changed from 3112 to 3136, an increase of 48; for LU 05, it changed from 3063 to 3052, an increase of 11; for LU 09, it changed from 3081 to 3073, an increase of 17; for LU 01 - 05, it changed from 49 to 84, an increase of 37; for LU 05 - 09, it changed from - 18 to - 21, a decrease of 6; for LU 09 - 01, it changed from - 31 to - 63, a decrease of 31 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst oscillated strongly, the near-month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on delivery warehouses, FU10 rose sharply and then fell. The low-sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated, the LU internal and external spread fluctuated around 10 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis began to rebound [3]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, floating storage decreased, ARA's residue inventory remained flat, floating storage inventory increased significantly, and EIA's residue began to accumulate. The global supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still recovering. The domestic high-sulfur spot was still in excess supply, so beware of overheating sentiment. The new round of sanctions has a large potential impact on the supply of heavy crude oil in China, which provides some support for the valuation of Asian fuel oil. This week, LU remained oscillating, and the basis of the external MF0.5 began to rebound. One can pay attention to the opportunity of the low-sulfur - high-sulfur spread widening in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 27 to September 2, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed from 381.95 to 388.30, with a change of 0.19; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed from 454.66 to 457.64, with a change of 1.27; the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed from -6.75 to -7.42, with a change of -1.02; etc. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During the same period, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed from 394.03 to 400.25, with a change of 2.23; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 changed from 406.97 to 412.56, with a change of 0.48; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 changed from 482.43 to 488.34, with a change of 5.97 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From August 27 to September 2, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed from 395.34 to 402.43, with a change of 4.54; the FOB VLSFO price changed from 485.57 to 492.24, with a change of 6.79; the 380 basis changed from 1.50 to -0.05, with a change of 0.35 [2]. Domestic FU Data - During the same period, the price of FU 01 changed from 2790 to 2847, with a change of 23; the price of FU 05 changed from 2748 to 2807, with a change of 25; the price of FU 09 changed from 2763 to 2750, with a change of 13 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From August 27 to September 2, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed from 3444 to 3509, with a change of 58; the price of LU 05 changed from 3408 to 3458, with a change of 60; the price of LU 09 changed from 3418 to 3428, with a change of 54 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded and then weakened, the near - month spread fluctuated, and the EW spread fluctuated. The 9 - 10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the internal - external spread of FU01 slightly weakened to -$0.8. The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the internal - external spread of LU11 oscillated at $9 [3][4]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory decreased, but the inventory was still not the highest in the same historical period. The floating storage decreased significantly month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, the arrivals oscillated this week, the shipments from the UAE rebounded month - on - month, and the net exports increased significantly. The on - shore inventory in Fujairah, the Middle East decreased, the floating storage of high - sulfur and low - sulfur increased significantly, the residue inventory in ARA increased, and the residue inventory in the US decreased, showing a large inventory contradiction [4]. - The east - west divergence of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil was the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated. The LU quota was issued, and the internal - external spread oscillated. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread. Fundamentally, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the supply - demand pattern will weaken [4]. Group 3: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 396.94 | 389.64 | 394.21 | 390.27 | 388.24 | -2.03 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 452.82 | 448.06 | 453.27 | 452.69 | 450.47 | -2.22 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -3.23 | -3.58 | -3.95 | -4.33 | -4.85 | -0.52 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 638.66 | 628.39 | 631.89 | 635.32 | 624.89 | -10.43 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -185.84 | -180.33 | -178.62 | -182.63 | -174.42 | 8.21 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.10 | 21.18 | 20.51 | 21.97 | 19.81 | -2.16 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 55.88 | 58.42 | 59.06 | 62.42 | 62.23 | -0.19 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 401.22 | 394.38 | 391.90 | 390.95 | 390.54 | - | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 411.88 | 405.63 | 403.65 | 403.51 | 401.94 | - | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 484.51 | 476.53 | 476.59 | 476.79 | 479.27 | - | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 85.26 | 83.31 | 83.35 | 82.76 | 82.47 | - | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.02 | -3.07 | -3.49 | -4.09 | -4.49 | - | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -146.41 | -139.96 | -140.20 | -135.63 | -131.01 | - | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 396.64 | 388.41 | 387.09 | 387.36 | 387.68 | 0.32 | | FOB VLSFO | 483.55 | 475.21 | 476.12 | 477.51 | 475.97 | -1.54 | | 380 Basis | -3.95 | -4.05 | -3.95 | -3.40 | -2.90 | 0.50 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 1.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.1 | -2.4 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.8 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 0.5 | [2] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2800 | 2772 | 2750 | 2746 | 2739 | -7 | | FU 05 | 2770 | 2751 | 2736 | 2741 | 2735 | -6 | | FU 09 | 2770 | 2730 | 2700 | 2691 | 2713 | 22 | | FU 01 - 05 | 30 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 4 | -1 | | FU 05 - 09 | 0 | 21 | 36 | 50 | 22 | -28 | | FU 09 - 01 | -30 | -42 | -50 | -55 | -26 | 29 | [2] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3457 | 3430 | 3417 | 3420 | 3426 | 6 | | LU 05 | 3417 | 3394 | 3390 | 3395 | 3391 | -4 | | LU 09 | 3489 | 3442 | 3429 | 3423 | 3477 | 54 | | LU 01 - 05 | 40 | 36 | 27 | 25 | 35 | 10 | | LU 05 - 09 | -72 | -48 | -39 | -28 | -86 | -58 | | LU 09 - 01 | 32 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 51 | 48 | [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil declined, the near - month spread was weak and at a historical low, and the EW spread rebounded on Friday. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level, and the FU01 internal - external spread was 0. The 0.5 cracking spread of Singapore oscillated downward, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.25/ton, the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated around $10, and the 09 internal - external spread continued to weaken. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's on - shore and floating storage increased, the near - month spread was under pressure. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high for the same period, with high net exports, while the shipments from the UAE decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high. The divergence between the East and West of high - sulfur fuel oil continued, and the current price difference led to logistics changes. In the heavy - quality pattern, the 380cst cracking spread was the weakest, and the heavy - quality crude oil premium was the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. [5] - This week, LU weakened as expected, the external MF0.5 followed gasoline and diesel to weaken slightly, the basis oscillated, and the LU internal - external spread weakened. The Singapore hi - 5 spread decreased slightly, and there is no clear direction recently. [5] 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/07/30 | 2025/07/31 | 2025/08/01 | 2025/08/04 | 2025/08/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 434.53 | 428.69 | 414.34 | 411.10 | 410.27 | - 0.83 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 487.75 | 482.61 | 469.52 | 468.25 | 460.75 | - 7.50 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | - 3.60 | - 3.65 | - 3.46 | - 3.60 | - 2.71 | 0.89 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 684.88 | 682.28 | 652.93 | 657.77 | 643.09 | - 14.68 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 197.13 | - 199.67 | - 183.41 | - 189.52 | - 182.34 | 7.18 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 20.92 | 21.36 | 20.50 | 21.94 | 21.15 | - 0.79 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 53.22 | 53.92 | 55.18 | 57.15 | 50.48 | - 6.67 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Futures | Type | 2025/07/30 | 2025/07/31 | 2025/08/01 | 2025/08/04 | 2025/08/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | 418.67 | 416.80 | 420.12 | 409.04 | 412.02 | 2.98 | | 180cst M1 | 432.08 | 430.45 | 431.52 | 421.10 | 423.02 | 1.92 | | VLSFO M1 | 511.11 | 509.36 | 501.95 | 496.52 | 496.29 | - 0.23 | | GO M1 | 91.77 | 92.54 | 89.91 | 86.95 | 86.57 | - 0.38 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | - 5.85 | - 6.76 | - 4.72 | - 4.02 | - 3.02 | 1.00 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 167.99 | - 175.44 | - 163.38 | - 146.91 | - 144.33 | 2.58 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | 2025/07/30 | 2025/07/31 | 2025/08/01 | 2025/08/04 | 2025/08/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 412.27 | 411.50 | 412.35 | 404.22 | 407.94 | 3.72 | | FOB VLSFO | 514.85 | 511.91 | 504.71 | 499.61 | 499.20 | - 0.41 | | 380 Basis | - 6.30 | - 6.25 | - 5.95 | - 4.30 | - 3.70 | 0.60 | | High - sulfur Internal - external Spread | - 7.9 | - 9.2 | 0.0 | - 1.7 | 0.5 | 2.2 | | Low - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 10.2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 2.0 | [3] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/07/30 | 2025/07/31 | 2025/08/01 | 2025/08/04 | 2025/08/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2965 | 2953 | 2946 | 2870 | 2852 | - 18 | | FU 05 | 2912 | 2909 | 2906 | 2845 | 2819 | - 26 | | FU 09 | 2956 | 2933 | 2916 | 2846 | 2842 | - 4 | | FU 01 - 05 | 53 | 44 | 40 | 25 | 33 | 8 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 44 | - 24 | - 10 | - 1 | - 23 | - 22 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 9 | - 20 | - 30 | - 24 | - 10 | 14 | [3] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/07/30 | 2025/07/31 | 2025/08/01 | 2025/08/04 | 2025/08/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3652 | 3628 | 3607 | 3523 | 3508 | - 15 | | LU 05 | 3614 | 3593 | 3553 | 3470 | 3453 | -

Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - This week, high-sulfur cracking fluctuated, crude oil prices rose significantly, Iran accounted for a large proportion of high-sulfur supply, and it performed well in oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, the 8-9 spread was $7.5, the basis fluctuated, and there was a differentiation between near and far months of FU at home and abroad. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuated at $8. The 0.5 cracking in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated [4]. - This week, land-based inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, and were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15%-20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region and cannot participate in physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, the overseas market is operating strongly, the near months of FU at home and abroad are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. Pay attention to the impact of supply disruptions in the far months. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are high [4][5]. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$16.13 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -$9.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.66 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -$36.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$26.62 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -$2.65 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$6.60 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -$2.38 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -$0.32 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +$1.14 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -$0.19 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.53 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$2.55 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -$6.20 | | FOB VLSFO | -$0.44 | | 380 Basis | -$1.95 | | High-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | +$0.8 | | Low-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | -$4.2 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -2 | | FU 05 | +11 | | FU 09 | -6 | | FU 01 - 05 | -13 | | FU 05 - 09 | +17 | | FU 09 - 01 | -4 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -21 | | LU 05 | +13 | | LU 09 | -31 | | LU 01 - 05 | -34 | | LU 05 - 09 | +44 | | LU 09 - 01 | -10 | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high-sulfur crack strengthened, the 380 near end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low-sulfur crack oscillated at a high level, the near end of the monthly spread strengthened, and the basis continued to strengthen. This week, Singapore's onshore inventory continued to decline, ARA ports' inventory decreased, and the US residual oil inventory increased significantly. The floating storage of high-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased, resulting in an overall inventory decline. The floating storage in the Middle East oscillated at a high level, and Saudi Arabia's exports were neutral year-on-year. The floating storage in Fujairah fluctuated, and the floating storage in Europe decreased. Recently, the low-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened. Attention should be paid to the subsequent realization of supply increments and the change in the low-sulfur exports of the Dangote refinery. The high-sulfur crack is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has dropped significantly. The marine fuel demand is expected to be weaker year-on-year due to tariff impacts. In the short term, the marine fuel market has become prosperous due to rush shipments. In the future, attention should be paid to the procurement demand for power generation and the opportunity for the high-sulfur crack to decline in the medium term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 3.94, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 4.70, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.11, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 3.38, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 8.08, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 1.28, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 0.76 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 3.60, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 3.00, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 0.17, Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by 0.11, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.48, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 0.98 [1][8] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by 6.42, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 2.75, the 380 basis increased by 0.70, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.2, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 2.8 [2] Domestic FU Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased by 1, FU 05 decreased by 5, FU 09 increased by 6, FU 01 - 05 increased by 4, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 11, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 7 [2] Domestic LU Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased by 10, LU 05 decreased by 7, LU 09 decreased by 18, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 3, LU 05 - 09 increased by 11, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 8 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore strengthened, the monthly spread strengthened, the EW strengthened, and the basis weakened. The low - sulfur cracking strengthened, the basis strengthened, and the high - low sulfur price spread showed a volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/04/25) | Final Value (2025/04/30) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 409.51 | 394.65 | -14.03 [1] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 441.52 | 422.85 | -18.67 [1] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -1.11 | -0.52 | 0.59 [1] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 603.68 | 580.80 | -22.88 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -162.16 | -157.95 | 4.21 [1] | | LGO - Brent M1 | 16.49 | 18.60 | 2.11 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 32.01 | 28.20 | -3.81 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Futures Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/04/25) | Final Value (2025/05/06) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 425.73 | 395.23 | -30.5 [1] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 439.85 | 406.48 | -33.37 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 482.08 | 461.63 | -20.45 [1] | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 81.74 | 76.55 | -5.19 [1] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 1.36 | 1.19 | -0.17 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -122.80 | -104.84 | 17.96 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/04/25) | Final Value (2025/05/06) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 426.37 | 395.61 | -30.76 [2] | | FOB VLSFO | 487.09 | 473.66 | -13.43 [2] | | 380 Basis | 2.15 | -1.80 | -3.95 [2] | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 9.3 | 10.0 | 0.7 [2] | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 4.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 [2] | Domestic FU Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/04/25) | Final Value (2025/05/06) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2745 | 2572 | -173 [2] | | FU 05 | 3051 | 2555 | -496 [2] | | FU 09 | 2878 | 2696 | -182 [2] | | FU 01 - 05 | -306 | 17 | 323 [2] | | FU 05 - 09 | 173 | -141 | -314 [2] | | FU 09 - 01 | 133 | 124 | -9 [2] | Domestic LU Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/04/25) | Final Value (2025/05/06) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3374 | 3218 | -156 [3] | | LU 05 | 3663 | 3247 | -416 [3] | | LU 09 | 3409 | 3268 | -141 [3] | | LU 01 - 05 | -289 | -29 | 260 [3] | | LU 05 - 09 | 254 | -21 | -275 [3] | | LU 09 - 01 | 35 | 50 | 15 [3] |