考虑到周大福同店销售持续改善，华泰证券上调2026财年至2028财年归母净利润6%、7%、7%，各至 81.2亿、89.1亿、99亿港元。考虑到周大福作为行业龙头，同店销售持续向好，渠道调整有望助力盈利 质量提升，给予2026财年24倍市盈率，目标价从16港元上调至19.4港元，维持"买入"评级。 该行指，随着下半财年逐步进入黄金珠宝的消费旺季，以及集团在标志性系列产品方面不断发力、渠道 优化稳步推进，看好周大福基本面持续向好。展望未来，该行预计周大福2026财年或保持较高的关店数 量，2027财年公司净关店率有望下降。 华泰证券发表研究报告指，周大福公布2026财年第二财季(7-9月)经营数据，集团零售额按年增长 4.1%，其中内地/港澳及其他市场，按年分别增长3%、11.4%，季内集团不同地区及不同品类产品的同 店销售增速全面转正，主因定价黄金、黄金镶嵌等定价产品销售表现亮眼，叠加低基数效应。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Gold and Jewelry Industry Industry Overview - The gold and jewelry market showed significant improvement in Q3 2025, primarily due to a low base in Q3 2024, high sales proportion in Q3, and the end of the customer wait-and-see period following the gold price increase in April 2025 [1][7] - The overall market demand has recovered, with a slight increase in gold prices in early September having limited impact on the end market [1] Brand Performance - Different brands exhibited varied performance during the ordering sessions: - **Chow Tai Fook**: Average performance with a 4.5% growth in July, but a decline of 7% expected by the end of September [2][3] - **Chao Hong Ji**: Outstanding performance with a 43% growth in July and expected to maintain over 40% growth by the end of September [2][4] - **Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang**: Experienced a decline of approximately 12% in July and 13% by the end of September [2][3] - The sales of gold-inlaid products and gold bars have become new growth points, with significant increases in average transaction values [1][10] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The consumer behavior is increasingly complex, with demands for excellent product design, reasonable pricing, and brand recognition [21] - The "one-price" sales model has gained significant traction, especially for small gold items, showing strong growth momentum [23][24] - The gold recovery business has rapidly developed, although profit margins remain limited [27][28] Financial Performance and Profitability - Disparities in profitability among dealers are notable: - Chow Tai Fook dealers have a gross margin of about 20%, while Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang range from 25% to 30% [15] - Chao Hong Ji has a higher margin of 30% to 35%, with top performers achieving up to 35% [15] - The highest margins are seen in brands like Man Ka Long and Lai Shen Tong Ling, reaching up to 40% [15] Future Outlook - The gold and jewelry industry is expected to continue facing challenges, including significant brand differentiation and sales fluctuations due to holiday timing [5] - The upcoming peak season is anticipated to yield a 10% to 15% growth in Q4 2025, driven by traditional consumption patterns [20][17] - The industry is projected to experience a store closure wave, with 2025 expected to be a peak year for this trend, leading to a more concentrated competitive landscape among leading brands [31][32] Conclusion - The gold and jewelry industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by varied brand performances, evolving consumer preferences, and significant financial disparities among dealers. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of growth in the upcoming peak season despite ongoing challenges.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Laisentongling (603900.SH) is experiencing a smooth product transformation, particularly with strong performance in gold inlay products [2] - Both offline direct sales and franchise channels have achieved rapid revenue growth, with plans for creating benchmark stores in the million-level range progressing steadily [2] - The gross margin is expected to improve year-on-year by Q2 2025, along with an enhancement in expense ratio [2]

Group 1 - Institutions listed 41 stocks today, with net purchases in 17 stocks and net sales in 24 stocks [1] - The top three stocks with the highest institutional purchases are: Sifang Jingchuang (149 million), Zhongke Jincai (136 million), and Mankalon (112 million) [1] - Mankalon saw a net purchase of 112 million from four institutions today [2] Group 2 - Zhezhang Securities indicates that high gold prices and a new round of market education for traditional gold and jewelry products may allow companies with strong product aesthetics and channel management to continue increasing market share [2] - Traditional gold jewelry companies are entering a low base phase starting Q2 this year, with leading brands following up on product and channel transformations, presenting investment opportunities in terminal sales and financial report turning points [2] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector is experiencing multiple industry catalysts that significantly boost market confidence, including the release of 11 innovative drug approvals by the National Medical Products Administration [3] - The U.S. oncology conferences showcased high-quality research results for domestic innovative drugs, validating the pipeline value and business development capabilities of leading pharmaceutical companies [3] - The National Postal Administration's recent guidelines emphasize the development of drone technology for postal services, promoting low-altitude logistics and enhancing delivery efficiency [3]