Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1520 yuan per bottle, a 43% decrease over two years, signaling the end of the "easy profit" era for distributors as they face new market challenges [1][2][10]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was as high as 2678 yuan per bottle in December 2023 but has since fallen to approximately 1520 yuan per bottle, reflecting a significant decline [2][4]. - The price drop has led to speculation about whether Moutai will fall below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, although many industry insiders believe this is unlikely in the short term [14][15]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are now facing pressure as the previous "easy profit" model has collapsed, with many realizing that their role as mere "transporters" of Moutai is no longer viable [10][11]. - The current average comprehensive cost line for distributors is around 1700 yuan per bottle, while the selling price is approximately 1650 yuan, resulting in a loss of 50 yuan per bottle sold [9]. Market Dynamics - The market has shifted from a high-demand environment to one characterized by excess supply and declining prices, leading to a more competitive landscape [10][15]. - Distributors are adapting by embracing e-commerce and creating engaging marketing strategies to connect with consumers, such as hosting tasting events and utilizing live streaming for sales [11][12]. Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there is a belief in the long-term potential of Moutai, as demand remains strong and the brand continues to expand its presence in international markets [15]. - The industry is expected to undergo a transformation where distributors will need to evolve from traditional sales roles to providing lifestyle experiences and emotional value to consumers [11][15].

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped to 1520 yuan per bottle, nearing the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, raising speculation about whether the manufacturer is controlling supply to maintain prices. However, the actual reason for the supply halt is that distributors have fulfilled their sales targets for 2025, negating the need for further shipments [2][3]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was at 2678 yuan per bottle in December 2023, but has since fallen by approximately 43% to around 1520 yuan per bottle within two years. The retail prices consumers see online range from 1600 yuan to 1850 yuan [2][3]. - The price decline has been gradual, with the first signs of a price turning point noted four years ago. The price remained stable above 2600 yuan per bottle from 2021 to 2022, peaking above 3000 yuan [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a "temperature" of price decline, with distributors focusing on maintaining their "comprehensive cost line" to avoid losses. The comprehensive cost line for distributors is influenced by the sales of bundled products, which have seen price declines [5][10]. - The outturn price for Feitian Moutai was raised to 1169 yuan per bottle as of November 1, 2023, marking a 20% increase from the previous price of 969 yuan. This price adjustment reflects a broader trend of price increases across the industry [7]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are facing pressure as the price of Feitian Moutai approaches the official guidance price, with some expressing concerns about their ability to sustain operations if prices continue to fall [15][16]. - The traditional role of distributors as "Moutai transporters" has diminished, with many now needing to adapt to a more competitive environment where they must create value beyond simple sales [11][17]. Future Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding whether the price of Feitian Moutai will drop below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan. Some distributors predict prices will stabilize around 1600 yuan before the Spring Festival, with a slight chance of approaching 1499 yuan afterward [15][16]. - Despite current challenges, there is a belief in the long-term demand for Moutai, with the potential for increased consumer interest as prices decline. The industry is expected to undergo a transformation where distributors will need to innovate and adapt to survive [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped to 1520 yuan per bottle, nearing the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, raising speculation about whether the manufacturer is controlling supply to maintain prices. However, the actual reason for the supply halt is that distributors have fulfilled their sales targets for 2025, negating the need for further shipments [2][3][7]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was around 2678 yuan per bottle in December 2021, but has since decreased by approximately 43% to about 1520 yuan per bottle by December 9, 2023 [2][4][7]. - The average retail price for consumers on e-commerce platforms ranges from 1600 yuan to 1850 yuan per bottle, indicating a price disparity between wholesale and retail [2]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are facing a shift from a previously profitable model, where they could easily make profits, to a more challenging environment where they must adapt to declining prices and changing market dynamics [11][20]. - The concept of "comprehensive cost line" is crucial for distributors, as it includes not only the cost of Feitian Moutai but also the sales obligations for other products, many of which are currently sold at a loss [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a "temperature drop," with distributors feeling pressure as prices continue to decline. The concern is whether prices will fall below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan [7][16]. - There is a belief among some distributors that if prices drop significantly, it may force manufacturers to adjust their sales strategies, potentially allowing for more flexible payment terms on other products [16]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term pessimism, there is long-term optimism regarding the demand for Moutai, as the fundamental consumer interest remains strong. The market may see an increase in buyers as prices decrease [18][20]. - The transition from being mere "Moutai transporters" to providing lifestyle experiences is seen as essential for distributors to remain competitive in the evolving market landscape [13][20].

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has significantly decreased, reaching 1520 RMB per bottle, approaching the official guidance price of 1499 RMB, raising speculation about whether the manufacturer is controlling supply to maintain prices [2][18]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was as high as 2678 RMB per bottle in December 2021, but has dropped approximately 43% to around 1520 RMB per bottle by December 9, 2023 [2][5]. - The average retail price for consumers on e-commerce platforms ranges from 1600 RMB to 1850 RMB per bottle [2]. Dealer Insights - Dealers have completed their sales targets for 2025, which is the primary reason for the current halt in supply from the manufacturer, rather than a strategy to control prices [2][3]. - The perception of a "lying win" era for dealers has ended, as they now face a market where the price difference between wholesale and retail has diminished [2][11]. Cost Structure - The factory price of Feitian Moutai was raised to 1169 RMB per bottle as of November 1, 2023, a 20% increase from the previous price of 969 RMB [6]. - The official guidance price of 1499 RMB per bottle serves as a significant benchmark for consumers [7]. - Dealers' comprehensive cost line, which includes the costs of other products they are required to sell, is approximately 1700 RMB per bottle, leading to losses when selling Feitian Moutai at around 1650 RMB [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently questioning whether the price of Feitian Moutai will fall below the official guidance price of 1499 RMB, with predictions suggesting it may stabilize around 1600 RMB before the Spring Festival [18]. - The ongoing price decline is testing the psychological limits of dealers, investors, and consumers [18]. Future Outlook - The industry is transitioning from a focus on selling liquor to providing a lifestyle experience, with dealers needing to adapt to this new role [13][22]. - Embracing e-commerce and integrating online and offline sales strategies are becoming essential for dealers to survive in the changing market [15][22]. - Despite current challenges, there is long-term optimism regarding the demand for Moutai, as the consumer base is expected to grow with lower prices [20][22].