新华财经北京2月25日电债券市场对外开放稳步推进，跨境投资便利化水平持续提升。2026年1月，债券 通"北向通"成交活跃，月度交易量达9425亿元人民币，日均成交449亿元，交易笔数达8532笔，显示出 国际投资者对我国债券市场的持续信心。 此外，债券通公司近期持续加强与国际投资者的沟通与交流，推动人民币资产国际化进程。通过"新债 信息通"等平台提升信息透明度，助力全球投资者更好地把握中国债市动态。 业内人士表示，随着金融市场对外开放政策的持续优化，债券通与互换通机制不断完善，预计将有更多 境外投资者参与到境内债券市场。而人民币资产的国际吸引力进一步增强，则有望推动我国债市在全球 金融体系中扮演更加重要的角色。 （文章来源：新华财经） 据新华财经获悉，截至2026年1月末，债券通"北向通"入市投资者已达836家（以法人口径统计）。从债 券类型来看，政策性金融债交易最为活跃，占总交易量的51%；国债和同业存单占比34%和14%，其他 券种合计1%。在待偿期分布方面，7-10年期债券占比最高，达36%，0-1年期和3-5年期分别占24%和 12%，反映出中长期品种仍受境外投资者青睐，短期品种亦有较高关注度。 从交 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strengthening trend in the mid to long-term interbank major interest rate bonds as of December 25 [1] - The yield of the 10-year active bond "25国开15" decreased by 0.15 basis points to 1.896% [1] - The yield of the same maturity bond "25附息国债16" fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.833% [1] - The yield of the 30-year bond "25超长特别国债06" decreased by 0.3 basis points to 2.2155% [1]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a "strong then weak" trend on December 12, with yields initially declining after the release of important meeting content, but later weakening as the day progressed [1] - The sentiment in the bond market showed a brief recovery in the morning, but momentum weakened by noon, leading to a decline in bond prices in the afternoon [1] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 19.3 billion yuan in the open market, with most funding rates rising [1] Interest Rates and Yields - The main contracts for government bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30-year contract falling by 0.71% to 112.47, and the 10-year contract down by 0.13% to 107.985 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds rose by approximately 2 basis points, with the 7-year active bond yield at 1.72% and the 10-year active bond yield at 1.835% [2] - The central government's 2-year and 10-year bond weighted average bidding yields were 1.36% and 1.8090%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.69 and 3.58 [5] Global Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields varied, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.78 basis points to 4.155% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.2 basis points to 1.952% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, with the French yield at 3.551% [4] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on addressing local fiscal difficulties [7][8] - The meeting outlined eight key tasks, including promoting investment stabilization and expanding the scale of central budget investments [7] - Institutions predict that the timing for potential rate cuts may occur sooner than market expectations, possibly by the end of this year or the first quarter of next year [1][9]

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major bond yields have mostly increased, indicating a rise in borrowing costs in the market [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - The 7-year active bond "25附息国债18" yield increased by 1.75 basis points to 1.7175% [1] - The 10-year active bond "25附息国债16" yield rose by 1.7 basis points to 1.832% [1] - The same maturity bond "25国开15" saw an increase of 1.2 basis points, reaching 1.895% [1] - The 30-year bond "25超长特别国债06" yield went up by 1.1 basis points to 2.219% [1]

Group 1 - The interbank bond market shows a weakening trend in medium to long-term rates as of December 12, with the 30-year active bond "25超长特别国债06" yield decreasing by 0.05 basis points to 2.2075%, having initially dropped over 1 basis point [1] - The 10-year active bond "25附息国债16" has shifted to an upward trend, increasing by 1 basis point to 1.825%, while the same maturity active bond "25国开15" rose by 0.3 basis points to 1.886% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major bond yields have mostly declined, with specific movements in long-term government bonds noted [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" increased by 0.1 basis points to 2.2060% [1] - The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" decreased by 0.35 basis points to 1.9045% [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" decreased by 0.7 basis points to 1.8290% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major interest rate bond yields have collectively risen, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards higher yields [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - The 30-year "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 06" yield increased by 0.75 basis points to 2.1525% [1] - The 10-year "25 National Development 15" yield rose by 0.55 basis points to 1.878% [1] - The same maturity "25 Coupon Government Bond 16" yield went up by 0.65 basis points to 1.8075% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 22, 2025, key - term treasury bonds were newly issued after the levy of coupon VAT. The coupon rate of 10Y25 Treasury Bond 16 (2516) is 1.83%, and that of 30Y25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 06 (25T6) is 2.15%. Whether 2516 and 25T6 can become active bonds is the key to the rationality of their issuance pricing [1][7]. - For 30Y treasury bonds, there are three possibilities for the next active bond: 25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 02 may remain active throughout the year; the active bond may switch to 25T6; or it may switch to 25 Treasury Bond 02. If 25T6's actual issuance scale is close to the estimated scale, it is likely to become the next active bond and has investment value [2][10]. - For 10Y treasury bonds, 25 Treasury Bond 11 may remain active for some time due to market investment habits, but 2516 has the possibility of quickly switching to the active bond. If it switches successfully, it has certain cost - effectiveness with an implied tax rate of 3.77% when priced with reference to the active bond [3][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1.1 Subsequent 30Y Treasury Bond Active Bond Possibility Analysis - **Estimated Scale of 25T6**: According to the issuance plan, 25T6 will have three more consecutive issuances in September and October. Assuming 20Y and 50Y consecutive issuances are based on the recent issuance scale of 35 billion yuan, 25T6's total scale may reach 317 billion yuan, higher than 25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 05 but slightly lower than 25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 02 [8]. - **Estimated Scale of 25 Treasury Bond 02**: In 2025, 25 Treasury Bond 02 will have two consecutive issuances in November and December. Assuming each issuance is 78 billion yuan, its final scale is expected to reach 273 billion yuan, less than the estimated scale of 25T6 [9]. - **Next 30Y Treasury Bond Active Bond Possibility**: Since 2020, most 30Y treasury bonds can remain active for over 150 days after becoming active bonds, and generally become active within 60 days after the first issuance. The average proportion of the issuance scale when becoming an active bond to the final scale is 54%. There are three possibilities for the next active bond: 25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 02 may remain active, in which case 25T6 may have low value; the active bond may switch to 25T6, which has high cost - effectiveness; or it may switch to 25 Treasury Bond 02, but the probability is low. If 25T6's actual scale is close to the estimated one, it is likely to become the next active bond [2][10]. 1.2 Subsequent 10Y Treasury Bond Active Bond Possibility Analysis - **Historical 10Y Treasury Bond Active Bond Situation**: Since 2020, 10Y treasury bonds generally remain active for about three months after becoming active bonds and usually become active within one month after issuance. Since 2024, the issuance scale has become an important factor affecting whether a 10Y treasury bond can become an active bond [15]. - **Estimated Scale of 2516**: If 2516 is issued consecutively based on the current issuance scale, its final scale is expected to be 462.03 billion yuan, slightly lower than the current active bond 25 Treasury Bond 11, but still a large - scale 10Y treasury bond [15]. - **Possibility of 2516 Becoming Active Bond**: 25 Treasury Bond 11 may remain active for some time due to market investment habits, but 2516 has the possibility of quickly switching to the active bond. After the first consecutive issuance, if it switches successfully, it has certain cost - effectiveness with an implied tax rate of 3.77% when priced with reference to the active bond [3][16].