中国即将发行或正在发行的国债和政策性金融债数据来源：qeubee终端 债市震幅加大，固收基金经理激辩布局时点。近期股债跷跷板效应再现，债券市场在8月经历了一轮显 著调整，不少中长期纯债基金净值承压。面对债券收益率走高、债基频现赎回等多重考验，固收基金经 理们展现出不同的应对策略：有的已开始积极左侧布局，视当前为难得的买点；有的审慎观望，认为布 局时点未至，更倾向于缩短久期、提升流动性。展望后市，业内人士表示，从流动性角度来说，人民银 行始终表态将维持适度宽松的货币政策，保持流动性充裕。8月以来，面对债券收益率调整，人民银行 增量续作买断式逆回购和MLF，显示出对市场流动性的呵护。当前大幅收紧流动性的概率较小，债券 收益率大幅上行的概率不大。 稳增长后劲足，政府债券加快发行使用。今年以来，更加积极的财政政策持续发力，政府债券发行使用 加快。数据显示，截至8月26日，今年超长期特别国债已完成六期发行，累计规模9960亿元，发行进度 达76.6%；地方政府新增专项债券已发行31497.6亿元，超过去年同期发行规模。专家认为，随着各级财 政部门加快债券发行使用，相关资金持续落地，将为稳增长提供有力支撑。增量政策有望根 ...

截至2025年7月末，境外机构持有银行间市场债券3.93万亿元，约占银行间债券市场总托管量的2.3%。 从券种看，境外机构持有国债2.02万亿元、占比51.4%，同业存单0.98万亿元、占比24.9%，政策性金融 债0.76万亿元、占比19.3%。 【大河财立方消息】8月15日，中国人民银行上海总部公布7月份境外机构投资银行间债券市场简报。 7月份，境外机构在银行间债券市场的现券交易量约为1.44万亿元，日均交易量约为628亿元。 责编:陈玉尧 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 7月份，新增3家境外机构主体进入银行间债券市场。截至7月末，共有1171家境外机构主体入市，其中 608家通过直接投资渠道入市，834家通过"债券通"渠道入市，271家同时通过两个渠道入市。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in the bond market managed by the Shanghai Clearing House, with a bond custody balance reaching 48.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [1] - In the first half of the year, the centralized clearing of bonds amounted to 11.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 127.5% [1] - The Shanghai Clearing House has effectively supported the launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market, facilitating the issuance of 272.1 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Clearing House has expanded its bond issuance support, facilitating the issuance of 494.03 billion yuan in policy financial bonds and 1.3 trillion yuan in financial bonds from commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions, representing year-on-year growth of 46.6% and 8% respectively [1] - The introduction of Bank of China Hong Kong as the first overseas clearing member marks a significant step towards internationalization, allowing foreign institutions to participate directly in domestic centralized clearing [1] - The dual development of the Yulan bond and Panda bond markets has effectively supported the internationalization of the renminbi [1] Group 3 - The Shanghai Clearing House launched new contracts for 3- and 7-year national development bonds and extended the interest rate swap clearing period to 30 years, with a total clearing scale of interest rate derivatives reaching 26.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.2% [2] - The expansion of credit derivatives includes the inclusion of 32 new quality production enterprises into the CDS central counterparty clearing range, promoting the trading and clearing of private enterprise CDS indices [2]

Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 243.3 billion, 251.2 billion, and 162 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 58.2 billion, 150.5 billion, and -65.4 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 270.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 49 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates experienced a downward fluctuation last week, influenced by factors such as the central bank's active fund injection, anti-involution trading, and the listing of science and technology innovation bond ETFs [2] Liquidity Tracking - The buyout reverse repurchase operations amounted to 1.4 trillion, with an OMO net injection of 130 million, indicating overall stable tax period funds, which eased after the tax period [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with June industrial output increasing by 6.8% and retail sales by 4.8%. Cumulative fixed asset investment for the first half of the year rose by 2.8%. New loans in June reached 2.2 trillion, an increase of 110 billion year-on-year [4] Overseas Market - U.S. inflation in June was lower than expected, while retail sales remained strong, indicating that tariffs have a manageable impact on inflation. The S&P 500 rose by 0.6% over the week, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat [5] Equity Market - The Wind All A index has risen for four consecutive weeks, with a weekly average trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion. There are signs of capital flowing out of the consumer sector due to CPI data and underwhelming performance from some food and beverage stocks, while the TMT sector remains strong. As of July 17, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 1,891.142 billion, an increase of 30.647 billion from July 10, marking nine consecutive trading days of net growth [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market has preliminarily priced in a weakening economy for Q3 and has reacted to anti-involution policies and a recovery in risk appetite. However, the performance of non-spread varieties indicates a cautious outlook on liquidity. Future uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies, domestic economic changes, and policy responses may lead to fluctuations in bond yields. The anti-involution policy is expected to boost commodity prices and risk appetite in the short term, but the central bank's clear support for liquidity during the tax period suggests a high likelihood of maintaining a loose monetary stance. The bond market is likely to remain in a volatile pattern, favoring the holding of coupon assets. Trading positions should remain flexible, focusing on policy expectations and liquidity changes. In the convertible bond market, the index is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with differentiation in bank themes and notable performance in anti-involution themes and the computing robot industry chain. Current price levels show increased volatility in convertible bonds across various price bands, with diminished asymmetric risk advantages. Given the ongoing supply-demand structure, reinvestment pressure remains significant amid a trend towards bubble formation, necessitating a focus on niche bonds and structural opportunities within the industry chain [7]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that solid basic skills are essential for successful investing [2] - The article highlights how to analyze bond fund holdings through quarterly reports, specifically focusing on the "Investment Portfolio Report" section, which details the types of bonds and their respective proportions [3]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.01% to 3582.30 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.37% and the ChiNext Index remained flat [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 28.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Semiconductor equipment, chips, finance, and healthcare sectors led the gains, while sectors related to anti-involution and the Yarlung Tsangpo River project, such as building materials, infrastructure, photovoltaic, and coal, saw declines [1] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance, with the Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) rising by 2.02% in a single day and a 20-day increase of 7.73%, closely mirroring the A-share indices but with greater magnitude [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) also saw a daily increase of 1.45% and a 20-day increase of 3.37% [1] Liquidity and Investment Trends - The strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market is closely linked to the current liquidity situation, characterized by a low domestic interest rate environment and a scarcity of high-return assets, leading to significant inflows of domestic capital into undervalued Hong Kong stocks [3] - The People's Bank of China continues to maintain a loose liquidity stance, with M2 reaching 330 trillion yuan, 2.4 times the GDP, indicating a strong demand for asset allocation [3] Sector Analysis - The recent rally in the Hong Kong market is driven by two main factors: a strong rebound in the internet sector and the simultaneous catalysis of anti-involution and water-electricity trends affecting both A and H shares, benefiting sectors like building materials and construction [4] - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) rising by 2.46% and the Chip ETF (512760) increasing by 0.78% [7] Semiconductor Industry Insights - Global and domestic semiconductor sales have shown significant increases, with domestic sales in May rising by 20.5% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI chips [9] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported record high revenue and net profit in Q2, with net profit increasing by 61%, exceeding analyst expectations [9][11] - The long-term trend towards domestic chip production remains a key focus, despite potential risks associated with reliance on foreign technology [12]

Core Insights - As of the end of June 2025, foreign institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan in the interbank bond market, accounting for approximately 2.5% of the total custody volume in this market [1] - Among the types of bonds held by foreign institutions, government bonds amounted to 2.10 trillion yuan, representing 49.6% of the total, while interbank certificates of deposit were 1.15 trillion yuan, making up 27.2%, and policy financial bonds were 0.81 trillion yuan, accounting for 19.1% [1] - In June, one new foreign institution entered the interbank bond market, bringing the total to 1,170 foreign institutions, with 607 entering through direct investment channels and 834 through the "Bond Connect" channel [1] - The trading volume of cash transactions by foreign institutions in the interbank bond market was approximately 1.32 trillion yuan in June, with an average daily trading volume of about 661 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing bond investment by rural commercial banks (农商行) in China amidst a trend of "asset scarcity," highlighting their role as a significant player in the bond market and the implications of their investment strategies [2][3][10]. Group 1: Bond Investment Trends - Rural commercial banks are increasingly investing in bonds due to limited financial investment options and the need to achieve asset allocation KPIs, with a notable preference for long-term government bonds in 2024 [2][4]. - The bond holding ratio for rural commercial banks generally ranges from 20% to 35%, with some banks like Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank exceeding 30% [4][5]. - The inclusion of interbank certificates of deposit in bond calculations significantly raises the bond holding ratios for some banks, such as Hainan Rural Commercial Bank at 40.35% [5]. Group 2: Investment Limitations and Market Conditions - Rural commercial banks face constraints in diversifying their investment portfolios beyond bonds, with limited options for equity investments and asset-backed securities (ABS) [7][8]. - The current market environment poses challenges for increasing lending to the real economy, making bond investments a more viable option for maintaining stability [8][10]. - Regulatory differences across regions affect the investment behaviors of rural commercial banks, with some banks restricted to investing only in certain types of bonds [8]. Group 3: Impact of Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China has indicated a neutral to accommodative stance on bond investments by rural commercial banks, emphasizing their stabilizing role in the bond market [10][12]. - If bond investment ratios are reduced significantly, it could lead to substantial reductions in bond holdings, with estimates suggesting a potential decrease of up to 12,708 billion yuan if ratios fall below 15% [12]. - The average bond investment ratio among rural commercial banks has increased from 20% in 2022 to 22% in 2023, indicating a trend towards higher bond investments despite potential regulatory pressures [12].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing bond investment by rural commercial banks (RCBs) is a response to the ongoing "asset shortage" trend, with RCBs becoming a significant force in the bond market as they prefer to use idle funds for bond investments rather than lending [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Investment Trends - RCBs are increasingly investing in bonds due to limited financial investment options, with bond holdings generally accounting for 20%-35% of their total assets [3][4] - Major RCBs like Dongguan RCB and Chongqing RCB have bond investment ratios exceeding 30%, while others like Jiangnan RCB and Hangzhou United RCB have lower ratios around 14.76% and 16.54% respectively [4] - The bond investment strategy includes a preference for interbank certificates of deposit, government bonds, local government bonds, policy financial bonds, and urban investment bonds, with a particular interest in long-term government bonds for 2024 [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Regulatory Environment - The bond market has remained stable, with banks holding a significant portion of government bonds (70%) and corporate credit bonds (20%), which supports fiscal policy and economic development [7][8] - There is a debate on whether to reduce the bond holding ratio of rural financial institutions, with some experts suggesting that maintaining a reasonable level of bond investment is essential for stability [2][8] - The average bond investment ratio among 379 RCBs has increased from 20% in 2022 to 22% in 2023, indicating a trend towards higher bond investments [8] Group 3: Future Investment Directions - If bond investments are curtailed, RCBs may struggle to find alternative investment options, as they have limited capacity to invest in equities or asset-backed securities (ABS) [5][6] - The regulatory environment varies across regions, affecting the types of bonds RCBs can invest in, with many still facing restrictions on equity investments [6] - The potential impact of reducing bond investments on the market is considered manageable, with a significant reduction unlikely given the current regulatory stance [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rural commercial banks (RCCs) have become important participants in the bond market, preferring to invest in inter - bank certificates of deposit, government bonds, local bonds, policy - financial bonds, and participating in urban investment bond investments. In 2024, RCCs significantly increased their allocation of ultra - long - term government bonds, and their bond investment is shifting from "hold - to - maturity" to trading [1]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the proportion of commercial banks' bond investment is likely to increase. As the era of real estate wanes and infrastructure investment space shrinks, credit demand may be weak in the long run, and the asset structure of the banking system will change accordingly [1]. - The bond - holding scale of rural financial institutions is estimated to exceed 13 trillion yuan. If the bond investment ratio is controlled within 20% or 15%, it may lead to significant bond investment reduction and impact the bond market [1]. - Interest - rate bonds are expected to show narrow - range fluctuations in 25Q3. The report continues to be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in Hong Kong - listed banks and China Property Insurance's capital - supplementary bonds [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Information Rural Commercial Banks' Bond Investment Preferences - RCCs tend to invest in inter - bank certificates of deposit, government bonds, local bonds, policy - financial bonds, and participate in urban investment bond investments. In 2024, they significantly increased their allocation of ultra - long - term government bonds [1]. Trend of Commercial Banks' Bond Investment Proportion - From the overall situation of small and medium - sized banks, the proportion of bond investment increased from 13.7% at the end of January 2015 to 22.7% at the end of May 2025 [1]. Estimation of Rural Financial Institutions' Bond - Holding Scale - As of the end of May 2025, small and medium - sized banks (joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and RCCs) held a total of 46.4 trillion yuan in bonds, accounting for 22.7% of total assets. As of the end of March 2025, if the bond investment ratio of rural financial institutions is the same as that of small and medium - sized banks, their bond - holding scale reaches 13.6 trillion yuan. If calculated based on the 27.8% bond investment ratio of A - share listed RCCs at the end of 2024, the bond - holding scale of rural financial institutions reaches 16.6 trillion yuan [1]. Potential Impact of Regulatory Policies - If the bond investment ratio of rural financial institutions is controlled within 20%, at least 1.6 trillion yuan of bond investment needs to be reduced; if controlled below 15%, the reduction scale exceeds 4.6 trillion yuan, which may significantly impact the bond market [1]. Bond Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - In 25Q3, the possibility of an interest - rate cut is low, and interest - rate bonds are expected to show narrow - range fluctuations. The report recommends band - trading interest - rate bonds and paying attention to the money supply. It continues to be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt, and suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in Hong Kong - listed banks and China Property Insurance's capital - supplementary bonds [1].