新华财经北京12月25日电中国人民银行上海总部25日发布的简报显示，截至2025年11月末，境外机构持 有银行间市场债券3.61万亿元，约占银行间债券市场总托管量的2.1%。从券种看，境外机构持有国债 2.03万亿元，占比56.2%；持有政策性金融债0.76万亿元，占比21.1%；持有同业存单0.69万亿元，占比 19.1%；持有其他品种债券0.13万亿元，占比3.6%。 11月份，境外机构在银行间债券市场的现券交易量约1.06万亿元，日均交易量约532亿元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 11月份，新增9家境外机构主体进入银行间债券市场。截至11月末，共有1187家境外机构主体入市，其 中，620家通过结算代理渠道入市，839家通过债券通渠道入市，272家同时通过两个渠道入市。 ...

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为2960亿、400亿和401亿，净融资额为-473 亿、281亿和401亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模1356亿，净融资额250亿。非金信用债共计发 行规模2511亿，净融资额567亿。转债暂无新券发行。 二级市场回顾 债市情绪继续修复，中短端利率表现较好。主要影响因素包括：央行公开市场操作、买债降息预期、配 置盘机构行为。 流动性跟踪 央行重启14天逆回购，释放呵护跨年资金面信号。最终R001和R007分别较前周上行0.4BP和上行 0.7BP。 政策与基本面 11月经济数据再度低于预期，投资、消费表现偏弱。高频数据来看：生产端年末偏弱，需求端地产下行 出口回升，价格端食品分化、生产资料价格多数走强。 海外市场 美国11月非农数据仍显韧性但CPI超预期走弱。10年期美债收盘在4.16%，较前周下行3BP。 权益市场 上周A股指数大幅震荡，万得全A微跌0.15%，结构分化，商贸零售、基础化工等领涨，电子、电力设 备领跌。市场缺乏主线大板块机会，成交缩量，上周日均成交量1.76万亿，周度日均成交量减少1925.21 亿。截至 ...

近日，在中国人民银行江苏省分行的指导推动下，兴业银行南京分行携手属地核心客户鑫元基金管理有 限公司，依托"银银平台"成功落地江苏省首单公募基金柜台债交易。此次鑫元基金通过柜台渠道投资政 策性金融债1000万元，不仅标志着兴业银行南京分行在江苏省债券市场创新领域实现关键突破，更助力 区域柜台债券市场完成丰富投资者类型的重要扩容。 得益于中国人民银行江苏省分行的政策赋能，兴业银行南京分行自2024年起持续深耕柜台债业务领域， 积极拓展合作版图。截至目前，已成功与城市商业银行、农村商业银行、证券资管子公司、财务公司、 基金公司等26家法人及产品客户完成柜台债签约，累计柜台债券交易量突破25亿元，为区域债券市场流 动性提升注入强劲动力。 展望未来，兴业银行南京分行将以此次业务落地为新起点，持续紧跟中国人民银行江苏省分行政策部 署，深耕属地客户服务，不断提升业务创新能力与综合金融服务水平，紧抓市场机遇、深挖业务潜力， 为推动江苏省金融市场高质量发展、助力实体经济发展贡献更多金融力量。 此次与鑫元基金的合作，不仅为公募基金参与银行间债券市场搭建了高效便捷的新路径，更形成了可复 制、可推广的业务范式，有望吸引更多各类金融机 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference were successively held. The policy orientation of the Politburo meeting returned to "strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment", and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized quality improvement and efficiency enhancement. The bond market yield declined overall but with a limited range. The bond market's reaction to the meetings was generally positive but still full of concerns [1][10]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing policy project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. In 2026, the deficit rate may remain at 4%, and the implementation of "two new" policies and "two important" projects will be optimized [1][11]. - Monetary policy support may increase, aiming to achieve stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Policy tools will be used more flexibly and efficiently, and measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may cooperate with fiscal policy [2][11]. - The bond market's rise this year may be restricted by multiple factors, including concerns about ultra - long - term treasury bond supply, inflation expectations, and institutional behavior. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, important meetings led to an increase in expectations of loose monetary policy, and the bond market generally recovered. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds both declined by 1bp. The yield first decreased and then increased during the week [9]. - Fiscal policy will maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. Monetary policy support will increase, aiming for economic growth and price recovery [11]. - The bond market's rise may be restricted by multiple factors. It is expected that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used cautiously, and the curve may steepen. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net injection, and the funding rate declined. From December 8th to 12th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 47 billion yuan. The R001 and DR001 decreased by 2bp and 3bp respectively compared to December 5th [19][21]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first decreased and then increased. The yields of key - term treasury bonds declined, and most of the term spreads widened. As of December 12th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds decreased by 1bp to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively [28][29]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The weekly turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds rebounded to 43%, the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds remained basically unchanged. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [20][33]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rose. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was negative, and the average issuance rate increased [47][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In November, export growth rebounded, and the year - on - year increase in CPI expanded. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was 5.9%, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.7% [57]. - The increase in social financing in November was higher than the same period last year, but household credit remained weak. Since December, new - home sales have weakened, while movie consumption has remained stronger than the seasonal average [58]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - The Fed completed its interest - rate cuts this year, and internal differences intensified. The bond markets in France and Germany declined, and most emerging markets also fell [67][68]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance of major asset classes this week was: live pigs > Shanghai copper > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > China bonds > CSI 300 > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > US dollar > Rebar > Crude oil [3][74]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple departments held meetings to convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing policies such as risk prevention, financial support for key areas, and high - quality development [78][82]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the bond trading business guide, optimizing specific bond element display and adding non - trading transfer business [83].

海外市场 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为2230亿、1087亿和990亿，净融资额为-338 亿、605亿和-1065亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模1346亿，净融资额714亿。非金信用债共计 发行规模2207亿，净融资额610亿。转债新券发行2只，预计融资规模2.7亿元。 二级市场回顾 一级市场回顾 超长债持续承压，债市再度调整。主要影响因素包括：央行11月国债买卖量、万科事件、政治局会议串 门等。 流动性跟踪 12月初，资金面季节性宽松。最终R001和R007分别较前周下行5.3BP和下行2.6BP。 市场回顾与分析 政策与基本面 何立峰与美国财政部长、贸易代表格举行视频通话，推动中美经贸关系持续稳定向好。高频数据来看： 生产端表现分化，需求端地产出口偏弱，价格端食品分化、生产资料价格多数回升。 美国就业数据表现分化，日本加息预期上升，美国长债下跌。10年期美债收盘在4.14%，较前周上行 12BP。 权益市场 上周A股受美联储态度偏鸽，银、铜、铝价格走高影响，有色板块表现亮眼，周度涨幅5.35%。成交缩 量，上周日均成交量1.70万亿，周度日均成交量减少407.45亿。截至2 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 252.2 billion, 351.4 billion, and 112.5 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 39.1 billion, 325.9 billion, and 112.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance scale of 195.7 billion with a net financing amount of 143.9 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance scale of 328.1 billion and a net financing amount of 113.5 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The bond market showed weak performance due to concerns over bond fund redemptions and risks associated with real estate bonds, influenced by rumors of new redemption fees and the Vanke incident [2][9] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's MLF operations released signals of support, maintaining a stable funding environment across the month, with R001 and R007 rates rising by 3.8 basis points and 2.7 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3][11] Policy and Fundamentals - Industrial profits significantly declined in October, and the manufacturing PMI for November remained weak. High-frequency data indicates a divergence in production performance, with weak demand in real estate and exports but strong consumer spending related to travel. Prices for food and production materials have mostly rebounded [4][12] Overseas Market - Federal Reserve officials expressed dovish sentiments, and weak performance in the U.S. September PPI and sales data led to increased expectations for a rate cut in December FOMC. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.02%, down 4 basis points from the previous week [5][13] Equity Market - A-shares rebounded significantly last week, influenced by gains in U.S. tech stocks, with leading increases in the communication, electronics, and non-ferrous sectors. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.74 trillion, down 128.1 billion from the previous week, with market activity concentrated in communication and non-ferrous sectors [6][14] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market has shown weak performance since November, primarily due to the market's weak capacity to absorb long-term bonds. The duration of fiscal bond issuance has been increasing, and some banks' interest rate risk indicators are nearing regulatory limits. As year-end approaches, the ability of banks to absorb long-term bonds is further weakened, compounded by poor performance in insurance products. The bond market curve may continue to steepen, with cautious investor sentiment expected to persist [7][15]

Core Insights - Global public debt is projected to exceed $111 trillion by December 2025, with U.S. federal debt reaching $38 trillion, highlighting the unsustainable nature of current debt levels [1] - Pensions are increasingly invested in government bonds, creating a cycle where citizens are both borrowers and lenders, with their retirement funds tied to government debt [3][4] - The structure of China's national debt is predominantly held by domestic banks and the central bank, with foreign investors holding only 2.4%, contrasting sharply with the U.S. where foreign investors hold 30% [4] Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. government is expected to pay $1 trillion in debt interest in the 2025 fiscal year, which will escalate to $13.8 trillion over the next decade, significantly impacting taxpayers [8] - Interest payments are projected to consume 3.3% of GDP by 2025, surpassing defense spending, indicating a critical financial imbalance [8] - China's debt interest pressure is manageable, but local government debt poses structural risks, with some counties spending 40% of their revenue on interest payments [11] Pension Fund Performance - The national social security fund's investment portfolio includes 40% in equity funds and over 20% in government bonds, exposing pensions to interest rate fluctuations [6] - A significant drop in bond prices due to rising interest rates could lead to substantial losses in pension funds, affecting retirees' financial stability [6][13] - Historical data indicates that a 1% decline in average returns over the next decade could reduce pension replacement rates significantly, impacting retirees' income [13] Systemic Risks and Future Adjustments - Systemic risks are increasing due to political gridlock over debt ceilings in the U.S., high debt levels in Japan, and slow progress in addressing local government debt in China [11] - The potential for a debt crisis is heightened by interconnected global financial markets, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis [11] - Future adjustments to the debt system may manifest as gradual inflation or sudden welfare cuts, impacting the purchasing power of pensions [14] Strategies for Individuals - Individuals are advised to build "anti-debt asset portfolios" by investing in gold and REITs, which typically have a negative correlation with government bonds [15] - Increasing the proportion of non-monetary assets in investment portfolios can help mitigate risks associated with interest rate fluctuations [15] - Developing skills in recession-resistant sectors can provide more stable income during economic downturns, as evidenced by lower unemployment rates in certain professions during past crises [15]

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为1870亿、1847亿和1149亿，净融资额为1016 亿、1267亿和1149亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模2068亿，净融资额280亿。非金信用债共计 发行规模3846亿，净融资额1291亿。可转债新券发行1只，预计融资规模5.6亿元。 二级市场回顾 股市连续大跌，但债市窄幅震荡。主要影响因素包括：资金面波动、赎回费新规尚未落地、房贷贴息政 策传闻等。 流动性跟踪 受税期等因素扰动，资金利率先上后下。最终R001和R007分别较前周下行4.2BP和上行0.1BP。 政策与基本面 10月财政收支分化明显，税收收入高增，一般财政支出明显回落。高频数据来看：生产端需求端双双走 弱，食品、生产资料价格下跌。 海外市场 9月非农数据表现分化，英伟达财报超预期，但美股大跌下海外避险情绪上升。10年期美债收盘在 4.06%，较前周下行8BP。 权益市场 上周A股大幅走弱，市场对利空因素颇为敏感，万得全A周内下跌5.13%，成长方向成为下跌重灾区。 成交缩量，上周日均成交量1.87万亿，周度日均成交量减少1787.91亿，周五单天成交 ...

Core Insights - The global bond market is experiencing a decline in yields due to policy uncertainty and tightening liquidity, indicating a phase of "high interest rates + liquidity repricing" [1] - The focus is on U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals, European fiscal risks, and sovereign debt issuance in Asia [1] - The report emphasizes a strategy centered on medium to long-term U.S. Treasuries, high-rated assets, and enhanced liquidity management to navigate policy shifts and avoid credit tail risks [1] Group 1: Global Bond Market Trends - Global major government bond yields have significantly decreased, with the U.S. 10-year yield dropping by 8.1 basis points, driven by rising risk aversion [1] - The UK 20-year yield surged by 30.03 basis points to 5.229%, reflecting heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability [1] - Japanese 10-year yield increased by 11.9 basis points to 1.824%, influenced by a stimulus plan that has led to a reassessment of inflation expectations [1] Group 2: Credit Market Developments - The issuance of Dim Sum bonds totaled 19 issues amounting to 138.03 billion yuan, with financial bonds making up 63.3% of this total [2] - The offshore-onshore yield spread has narrowed significantly to 8.95 basis points, a decrease of 34% [2] - Moody's upgraded Italy's sovereign rating to Baa2, while S&P upgraded Uzbekistan to BB and downgraded Bahrain to B [2] Group 3: Liquidity Conditions - The global monetary market is experiencing structural tightening, with the New York Fed reporting that reserves are no longer abundant [3] - The Hong Kong dollar HIBOR has significantly decreased, with the 1-month rate falling by 56.851 basis points to 1.93%, indicating improved liquidity [3] - The recommendation is to focus on medium-term holdings, select high-rated credits, and manage liquidity effectively, particularly favoring 5-7 year U.S. Treasuries [3]

Group 1 - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 700 billion yuan, with the overall ETF market reaching 5.74 trillion yuan as of November 9 [1] - Despite accounting for less than 13% of the total ETF market, bond ETFs have experienced explosive growth over the past two years, with new products contributing over 330 billion yuan to the scale [1] - Recent announcements from the central bank to restart government bond trading have boosted liquidity and stabilized expectations, reducing interest rate risks [1] Group 2 - Financial bonds have become a core asset for asset management institutions, with commercial banks issuing 2.88 trillion yuan in various bonds this year, including 1.37 trillion yuan in perpetual bonds and subordinated bonds [2] - Major banks like ICBC and CCB have announced plans to issue significant amounts of financial bonds, indicating strong market demand [2] Group 3 - The company bond ETF (511030) has seen a year-to-date increase of 1.37% and has reached a new high in scale at 23.904 billion yuan as of November 7 [5] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 12 days, totaling 793 million yuan, with a daily average net inflow of approximately 66.12 million yuan [5] - The ETF's management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, indicating a competitive fee structure [7] Group 4 - The company bond ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 1.31 over the past month, with a maximum drawdown of 0.28% in the last six months [6] - The tracking error for the ETF is 0.013% over the past month, reflecting its close alignment with the underlying index [8]