证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业周报 中报陆续披露，关注底部布局机遇 相关研究： | 1.《育儿补贴政策落地，关注乳 | | | --- | --- | | 品消费催化》 | 2025.08.03 | | 2.《7月CPI环比转正，同比持平》 | | | 2025.08.10 | | | 3.《茅台业绩符合预期，关注新 | | | 消费布局机遇》 | 2025.08.17 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -4.3 -15.3 -20.4 绝对收益 2.9 -3.5 11.4 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 Email：liyw3@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日，食品饮料行业上涨 3.29% 根据Wind，8月18日-8月22日，上证指数上涨3.49%，深证成指上涨4.57%， 沪深 300 指数上涨 4.18%， ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, influenced by economic and policy pressures, with five major changes observed [2] - The industry is transitioning towards a "quality-price ratio" competition phase, with leading companies already positioning themselves for this shift [2] - Despite being in a weak performance phase, the sector shows characteristics of low valuation, low expectations, low holdings, and high dividends, making leading liquor companies attractive investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Background - The liquor industry is facing dual pressures from economic conditions and policy changes, accelerating its decline [7] - The introduction of the "Strict Economy and Anti-Waste Regulations" has further impacted consumption scenarios, particularly in high-end group purchases [7][9] - The industry is expected to undergo a supply-side adjustment, with companies lowering their growth targets to alleviate channel pressures [13] 2. Supply Side - Leading liquor companies have initiated a "control supply" trend to rebalance supply and demand, which may stabilize prices [18] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have implemented supply control policies to manage inventory levels [19] 3. Demand Side - Companies are innovating to meet changing consumer preferences, focusing on quality-price ratio products and low-alcohol options to attract younger consumers [20] - The establishment of manufacturer platforms and embracing online channels are strategies being adopted to enhance sales and manage distribution [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong brands with resilient demand and attractive dividend returns, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [55] - The potential for earnings per share (EPS) recovery is anticipated in the second quarter of 2026, making it a favorable time to invest [55]

Core Viewpoint - The low-alcohol liquor market is experiencing a resurgence after nearly 30 years of dormancy, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe actively entering this segment to attract younger consumers [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The market share of low-alcohol liquor has been rapidly increasing, with its production accounting for approximately 15% in 2022 and projected to exceed 25% by 2024 [3]. - Some companies report that low-alcohol products have captured over 50% of their regional market share, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences towards younger demographics [3][4]. - The demand for low-alcohol liquor is driven by changing consumer habits, with lower alcohol content products showing better sales performance compared to traditional high-alcohol options [4][19]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Wuliangye plans to launch a new mid-to-high-end 29-degree product named "Yijian Qingxin" in September, while Yanghe will introduce fruit wines and low-alcohol trendy drinks in August and September [6][9]. - Luzhou Laojiao has successfully developed a 28-degree version of its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, and will introduce additional low-alcohol options [6][8]. - Guizhou Moutai is accelerating its low-alcohol beverage brand, Youmi, with 14 new products launched at a recent trade fair and plans for online and offline distribution [13]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The low-alcohol liquor segment faces challenges such as maintaining flavor balance and quality control, as reducing alcohol content can disrupt the equilibrium of flavor compounds [16]. - There is a risk of market homogenization, with many brands adopting similar "fruit flavor + bubbles" formulas, which may lead to consumer fatigue and a lack of brand loyalty [16][19]. - The industry must focus on technological innovation and cultural engagement to ensure sustainable growth and avoid being trapped in a highly competitive market [19].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is navigating a complex market environment in the first half of 2025, with three significant trends emerging: low-alcohol products, consumer-centric strategies, and internationalization [1][3][5]. Group 1: Low-Alcohol Trend - The low-alcohol trend is becoming a new highlight in the industry, with leading companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao launching low-alcohol products such as Wuliangye's "29-degree Wuliangye" and Luzhou Laojiao's "28-degree Guojiao 1573" [1]. - The low-alcohol market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of around 30%, and is expected to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025 [1]. - This trend allows companies to explore new avenues in a saturated high-alcohol market and effectively reach younger consumers, although it requires higher standards in brewing technology and careful strategic planning [1]. Group 2: Consumer-Centric Strategies - Companies are accelerating their focus on consumer markets through initiatives like Luzhou Laojiao's "Jiao Zhu Festival" and interactive tasting events, which aim to enhance user value and build emotional connections with consumers [3]. - The consumer-centric approach helps to overcome growth bottlenecks and reshape development dynamics while fostering a new generation of consumers [3]. - However, this strategy requires long-term investment and careful management to avoid ineffective competition [3]. Group 3: Internationalization - The industry is making strides in internationalization, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showcasing Chinese liquor at the 2025 Osaka World Expo, attracting international attention [5]. - Wuliangye is actively participating in various activities as a senior partner of the China Pavilion, while Moutai is launching a series of new products that explore cultural integration and localization [5]. - In 2024, the export volume of Chinese liquor increased by 6.3%, with total export value rising by 20.4%, and a significant 30% increase in export value in the first quarter of this year [5]. - Despite these gains, the global market share of Chinese liquor remains small, facing challenges such as tariff barriers and cultural differences [5][10]. Group 4: Standardization Efforts - The national liquor standardization technical committee has made significant progress by releasing a draft national standard for liquor quality, aimed at establishing standardized language for international markets [7]. - The introduction of the "liquor flavor wheel" replaces traditional terminology with familiar taste vocabulary for international consumers, facilitating the internationalization of Chinese liquor [8]. - These initiatives are designed to bridge cognitive gaps and provide strong support for the global expansion of Chinese liquor [8][10].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments in the first half of 2025, driven by economic fluctuations, changes in consumer dynamics, and intensified competition among existing players [1] - Three major trends are emerging in the industry: low-alcohol products, consumer-centric strategies, and internationalization [1] Trend 1: Low-Alcohol Products - The trend of low-alcohol beverages is gaining momentum, with major companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao planning to launch new low-alcohol products to cater to younger consumers [3][4] - The low-alcohol market is experiencing a compound annual growth rate of around 30%, with expectations for the market size to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025 [3][4] - Low-alcohol products are seen as a strategic avenue for companies to navigate the saturated high-alcohol market and create a more resilient product ecosystem [4][5] - The shift towards low-alcohol beverages is also aligned with changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics, where 60% prefer low-alcohol options [7] Trend 2: Consumer-Centric Strategies - The industry is increasingly focusing on direct consumer engagement, moving away from traditional B2B models to enhance brand loyalty and consumer experience [9][12] - Companies are implementing immersive marketing strategies, such as tasting events and interactive experiences, to connect with younger consumers and adapt to their preferences [12][13] - The C-end strategy aims to break through growth bottlenecks and reshape development dynamics by activating real consumer engagement [13][15] - Building brand loyalty through deep consumer interaction is becoming essential in a market characterized by information overload and brand homogenization [15] Trend 3: Internationalization - The internationalization of Chinese liquor is accelerating, with companies participating in global events like the 2025 Osaka Expo to showcase their products [16][18] - In 2024, liquor exports reached 16,400 kiloliters, a 6.3% increase year-on-year, with total export value rising by 20.4% to $970 million [18][19] - Despite positive growth, Chinese liquor still holds a small share of the global spirits market, accounting for only 2.4% of total exports [19] - Challenges such as high tariffs, lack of international standards, and cultural barriers remain significant hurdles for broader acceptance in global markets [19][20] - Recent initiatives include the development of international standards for Chinese liquor to facilitate its global integration [22]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently in a period of adjustment, with leading companies focusing on "steady development" as their primary strategy amidst challenges such as slowing consumer demand and intensified competition [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Dividends - Major liquor companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanghe are showing a trend of increasing dividend amounts and ratios, reflecting their strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns [7][8]. - Moutai plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 646.72 billion yuan for 2024, with a distribution rate of around 80% [7]. - Wuliangye announced a record high total dividend of 223 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend yield of 4.9%, and committed to maintaining a dividend ratio of no less than 70% from 2024 to 2026 [7][8]. - Luzhou Laojiao has also set a three-year cash dividend plan, with rates increasing from 65% to 75% over the next three years [8]. Group 2: Strategic Focus and Market Positioning - The keyword for the liquor industry in 2025 is "stability," as companies prioritize maintaining market share and quality over rapid growth [3][6]. - Wuliangye reported a revenue growth of 7.09% and a net profit growth of 5.44% for 2024, continuing its trend of steady growth for ten consecutive years [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu emphasized the shift in competition from speed to quality, focusing on stabilizing markets, channels, and prices [5]. Group 3: International Expansion - Moutai's international revenue reached 5.189 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant milestone in its global strategy, which includes transitioning from product export to brand and cultural promotion [9]. - Wuliangye has successfully opened 21 new overseas markets and established 29 new distributors, enhancing its international presence [10]. - Fenjiu is implementing a differentiated international strategy, successfully filling market gaps in 11 countries and increasing its overseas revenue by over 50% [10]. Group 4: Product Innovation and Market Trends - The trend towards lower alcohol content beverages is gaining traction, with several leading companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, planning to launch low-alcohol products to cater to younger consumers [13][16]. - Moutai has introduced a blueberry sparkling wine and is actively recruiting distributors to capture more market share in the low-alcohol segment [16]. - The industry is recognizing the need to adapt to changing consumer preferences, with companies exploring new product lines to meet diverse market demands [16].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao is advancing its strategy of product low-alcoholization by introducing a 28-degree Guojiao 1573, with plans for even lower alcohol content products in the future [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao's chairman Liu Miao announced the successful development of the 28-degree Guojiao 1573, which will be launched at an appropriate time [1] - The company is considering the introduction of products with even lower alcohol content, indicating a shift towards lower-alcohol beverages in its product lineup [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The move towards lower alcohol content is not unique to Luzhou Laojiao, as Wuliangye also plans to release a 29-degree Wuliangye product in the second half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant changes, with trends such as younger consumer demographics, daily consumption scenarios, quality enhancement, digital channels, and emotional value becoming increasingly prominent. The company aims to leverage its stable development to navigate external uncertainties [1][2]. Industry Overview - The overall growth rate of the Chinese liquor industry is slowing down, facing multiple challenges, and the differentiation among liquor companies is intensifying, leading to a "Matthew Effect" where regional concentration continues to rise [2]. - The industry has experienced various phases: a golden period (2003-2012), a deep adjustment period (2013-2015), a structural prosperity period (2016-2023), and is currently in another deep adjustment phase (2024 onwards) [2]. Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44%, marking ten consecutive years of stable growth [2]. - The company plans to implement a large-scale cash dividend of 10 billion yuan, alongside an annual dividend plan of 12.3 billion yuan, totaling 22.3 billion yuan for the year, with a dividend payout ratio of 70%, the highest in its history [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its market-oriented thinking and promoting the professional transformation of its management team, including competitive recruitment for key positions and performance assessments for all employees [4]. - The company is actively reforming its marketing strategies to adapt to changing consumer demands, including establishing a liquor sales company and implementing a "quantity-price balance" strategy in major cities [5][6]. Future Plans - For 2025, the company will focus on market strategies, channel models, product planning, and mechanism guarantees to ensure performance growth, emphasizing a dynamic and flexible market response [6]. - The company aims to enhance its competitiveness in banquet activities, with a 24% year-on-year increase in banquet events and an improvement in the opening rate of banquet wines [7]. - Targeting the younger consumer demographic is a core strategy for future growth, with plans to launch new products that resonate with their tastes and preferences [7].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye Group emphasizes the importance of focusing on its own development amidst current uncertainties, aiming for quality and reasonable growth by 2025 [2] Market Strategy Adjustment - The eighth generation of Wuliangye will focus on direct distribution to 20 cities with a dynamic and flexible adjustment of quantities based on market demand [5][9] - In 2022, Wuliangye's product revenue reached 67.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.07%, with a gross margin of 87.02% [5] - The company has implemented a refined market strategy for the eighth generation of Wuliangye, with online sales increasing by 30% year-on-year during the Spring Festival [5] Market Development and Talent Strategy - Wuliangye is committed to enhancing its market competitiveness by optimizing its terminal network and expanding into emerging channels [9][10] - The company is focusing on market-oriented and professional talent development, with a new mechanism for selecting personnel in its e-commerce division [10] Incremental Market Expansion - Wuliangye plans to open 21 new overseas markets in 2024 and has appointed two young vice presidents to lead internationalization and youth-oriented strategies [18][14] - The company aims to integrate its products into mainstream consumer groups abroad through collaborations with Michelin restaurants [19] Youth-Oriented Strategy - Wuliangye is launching products with lower alcohol content to cater to the preferences of younger consumers, with plans to introduce a 29-degree product later this year [20] - The company is creating diverse consumption scenarios and engaging with young consumers through social media platforms and events [20]