【现货】据Mysteel，截至12月10日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格12800元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格12750元/吨，日环比持平；基差415元/吨，日环比下跌55元/吨。 【操作建议】主力参考12400-12800 【短期观点】震荡调整 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【供应】据Mysteel统计11月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢产量预计345.92万吨，月环比减少6.18万吨，降幅 1.6%，同比增加4.2%；300系179.38万吨，月环比减少0.62万吨，降幅0.3%，同比增加0.4%。12月不锈 钢粗钢预计排产328.57万吨，月环比减少5.02%，同比增加4.2%；其中300系171.47万吨，月环比减少 4.4%，同比减少7.6。目前钢厂整体减产力度有限，年末 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak performance, with inventory digestion remaining slow and market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude [3] Supply - In October, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants reached 3.5138 million tons, an increase of 87,100 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 2.54% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [2] - November production is projected at 455,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.67% but a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [2] - Several steel mills have recently reduced production to maintain prices, primarily among 200 series steel plants, while 300 series output remains high, keeping supply pressure elevated [2] Inventory - Social inventory is not being depleted effectively, with warehouse receipts showing a downward trend [2] - As of November 21, social inventory of 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan was 492,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,400 tons [2] - On November 24, stainless steel futures inventory was 64,382 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,907 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market continues to show weak trends, with slow inventory digestion and increasing market caution among traders [3] - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have concluded, reducing upward pressure on the dollar [3] - The nickel ore market remains stable, with slight declines in recent auction prices for nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia [3] - Nickel iron prices are under pressure, with new production lines coming online and excess supply becoming apparent, leading to a decline in prices below 900 yuan per nickel [3] - The chromium market is also weak, influenced by the low demand for stainless steel, resulting in increased supply pressure and declining raw material costs [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to continue weak oscillation, with a reference range for main prices set between 12,200 and 12,600 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing a transition from a consumption off-season to a peak season, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [3] - Nickel ore prices remain stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 1.3% nickel ore around CIF 42 and for 1.4% nickel ore around CIF 50 [3] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to increase in August, with a projected output of 330.41 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.29% [1] Pricing and Inventory - As of August 18, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, while in Foshan it remains stable at 13,050 yuan/ton [1] - Social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 49.65 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5 million tons [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall profit margins for steel mills have improved, leading to increased production motivation, which may exert pressure on supply in August [3] - Despite seasonal and policy improvements in demand expectations, the actual terminal demand remains weak, with traditional downstream sectors showing sluggish demand [3] - The chromium iron price is expected to remain strong due to cost support from chromium ore [1][3]