【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面大跌，主要受宏观情绪整体疲弱和原料镍的带动。现货方面临近节前现货交投 一般，市场待假氛围浓厚，多以点价资源成交为主。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普提名凯文.沃什为下一 任美联储主席，引发市场对美联储政策的"鹰派"预期，强美元预期之下商品板块情绪快速调整承压。镍 矿来看，菲律宾矿山招标价格连续上涨；印尼地区矿山出货有限，旧配额部分矿山MOMS系统审核未 能通过，新配额ESDM审批缓慢，镍矿升水大幅拉涨。原料收紧预期下，镍铁报价坚挺，议价区间多在 1060-1080元/镍(舱底含税)，但现货实际成交偏淡；叠加铬铁供应增量放缓，铬铁零售价格仍较坚挺。 节前钢厂加大减产力度，国内部分钢厂开始停产检修，春节前后300系不锈钢预计影响产量48.5万吨。 需求提振不足，传统和新兴板块分化，施工项目放缓采购乏力、下游企业资金压力凸显，需求端难以承 接高价涨幅。节前补库需求不足，社会库存转为小幅累积，仓单维持趋势性回落。总体上，近期成本支 撑强化，钢厂减产供应缩量预期，淡季需求提振和库存消化仍不足。宏观预期走弱施压情绪，供需缓慢 修复基本面相对平淡，短期预计偏弱调整为主，主力参考13200-14500，后续仍关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price stability with cautious downstream purchasing, while supply pressures remain high and demand is weak, leading to limited inventory depletion [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons (1.6% decline) but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December's stainless steel crude steel output is projected to be 3.2857 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.02% and a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The production of the 300 series is expected to be 1.7147 million tons in December, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [2] - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, with increased maintenance schedules towards year-end potentially leading to more proactive reductions due to loss pressures [2] Inventory - Social inventory depletion is insufficient, with a trend of decline in warehouse receipts [2] - As of December 5, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 492,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,800 tons [2] - On December 10, stainless steel futures inventory is 61,498 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 839 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight strengthening towards the end of the trading day, while high-price transactions are limited due to cautious purchasing [3] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike and domestic policy adjustments, with upcoming central economic work meetings to be monitored [3] - Nickel ore market remains stable, with Philippine mines primarily fulfilling previous orders and no new tenders from northern mines [3] - Nickel-iron transaction prices have risen to around 900 yuan per nickel (tax included), indicating a slight recovery in iron plant profits [3] - Demand remains weak in the off-season, particularly in the home appliance and construction decoration sectors, leading to limited order releases and low inventory depletion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak performance, with inventory digestion remaining slow and market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude [3] Supply - In October, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants reached 3.5138 million tons, an increase of 87,100 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 2.54% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [2] - November production is projected at 455,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.67% but a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [2] - Several steel mills have recently reduced production to maintain prices, primarily among 200 series steel plants, while 300 series output remains high, keeping supply pressure elevated [2] Inventory - Social inventory is not being depleted effectively, with warehouse receipts showing a downward trend [2] - As of November 21, social inventory of 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan was 492,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,400 tons [2] - On November 24, stainless steel futures inventory was 64,382 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,907 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market continues to show weak trends, with slow inventory digestion and increasing market caution among traders [3] - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have concluded, reducing upward pressure on the dollar [3] - The nickel ore market remains stable, with slight declines in recent auction prices for nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia [3] - Nickel iron prices are under pressure, with new production lines coming online and excess supply becoming apparent, leading to a decline in prices below 900 yuan per nickel [3] - The chromium market is also weak, influenced by the low demand for stainless steel, resulting in increased supply pressure and declining raw material costs [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to continue weak oscillation, with a reference range for main prices set between 12,200 and 12,600 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing a transition from a consumption off-season to a peak season, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [3] - Nickel ore prices remain stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 1.3% nickel ore around CIF 42 and for 1.4% nickel ore around CIF 50 [3] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to increase in August, with a projected output of 330.41 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.29% [1] Pricing and Inventory - As of August 18, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, while in Foshan it remains stable at 13,050 yuan/ton [1] - Social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 49.65 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5 million tons [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall profit margins for steel mills have improved, leading to increased production motivation, which may exert pressure on supply in August [3] - Despite seasonal and policy improvements in demand expectations, the actual terminal demand remains weak, with traditional downstream sectors showing sluggish demand [3] - The chromium iron price is expected to remain strong due to cost support from chromium ore [1][3]