Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price declines due to weak macroeconomic sentiment and pressure from raw material nickel prices [3] Supply - In January 2026, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.426 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [2] - The 300 series output is estimated at 1.7957 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 48,500 tons (2.78%) and a year-on-year increase of 20.76% [2] - February's crude steel output is expected to be 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [2] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and starting maintenance ahead of the holiday [2] Inventory - The trading atmosphere is calm, with traders focusing on fulfilling pre-holiday orders, leading to insufficient restocking demand [2] - As of January 30, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 457,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,700 tons [2] - On February 2, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 43,818 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,880 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is under pressure from macroeconomic factors, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has led to hawkish expectations for U.S. monetary policy [3] - Nickel ore prices are rising due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines and increased demand from smelters [3] - The market for high-nickel pig iron is quiet, with prices around 10,600-10,800 yuan per nickel (including tax) [3] - The supply of ferrochrome is also tight, maintaining relatively high retail prices [3] Demand - Demand is insufficient to support high price increases, with traditional and emerging sectors showing divergence [3] - Construction projects are slowing down, leading to weak procurement from downstream enterprises [3] - The expected impact on 300 series stainless steel production is 485,000 tons due to production cuts before and after the holiday [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price stability with cautious downstream purchasing, while supply pressures remain high and demand is weak, leading to limited inventory depletion [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons (1.6% decline) but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December's stainless steel crude steel output is projected to be 3.2857 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.02% and a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The production of the 300 series is expected to be 1.7147 million tons in December, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [2] - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, with increased maintenance schedules towards year-end potentially leading to more proactive reductions due to loss pressures [2] Inventory - Social inventory depletion is insufficient, with a trend of decline in warehouse receipts [2] - As of December 5, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 492,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,800 tons [2] - On December 10, stainless steel futures inventory is 61,498 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 839 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight strengthening towards the end of the trading day, while high-price transactions are limited due to cautious purchasing [3] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike and domestic policy adjustments, with upcoming central economic work meetings to be monitored [3] - Nickel ore market remains stable, with Philippine mines primarily fulfilling previous orders and no new tenders from northern mines [3] - Nickel-iron transaction prices have risen to around 900 yuan per nickel (tax included), indicating a slight recovery in iron plant profits [3] - Demand remains weak in the off-season, particularly in the home appliance and construction decoration sectors, leading to limited order releases and low inventory depletion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak performance, with inventory digestion remaining slow and market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude [3] Supply - In October, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants reached 3.5138 million tons, an increase of 87,100 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 2.54% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [2] - November production is projected at 455,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.67% but a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [2] - Several steel mills have recently reduced production to maintain prices, primarily among 200 series steel plants, while 300 series output remains high, keeping supply pressure elevated [2] Inventory - Social inventory is not being depleted effectively, with warehouse receipts showing a downward trend [2] - As of November 21, social inventory of 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan was 492,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,400 tons [2] - On November 24, stainless steel futures inventory was 64,382 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,907 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market continues to show weak trends, with slow inventory digestion and increasing market caution among traders [3] - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have concluded, reducing upward pressure on the dollar [3] - The nickel ore market remains stable, with slight declines in recent auction prices for nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia [3] - Nickel iron prices are under pressure, with new production lines coming online and excess supply becoming apparent, leading to a decline in prices below 900 yuan per nickel [3] - The chromium market is also weak, influenced by the low demand for stainless steel, resulting in increased supply pressure and declining raw material costs [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to continue weak oscillation, with a reference range for main prices set between 12,200 and 12,600 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing a transition from a consumption off-season to a peak season, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [3] - Nickel ore prices remain stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 1.3% nickel ore around CIF 42 and for 1.4% nickel ore around CIF 50 [3] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to increase in August, with a projected output of 330.41 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.29% [1] Pricing and Inventory - As of August 18, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, while in Foshan it remains stable at 13,050 yuan/ton [1] - Social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 49.65 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5 million tons [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall profit margins for steel mills have improved, leading to increased production motivation, which may exert pressure on supply in August [3] - Despite seasonal and policy improvements in demand expectations, the actual terminal demand remains weak, with traditional downstream sectors showing sluggish demand [3] - The chromium iron price is expected to remain strong due to cost support from chromium ore [1][3]