固收-30y 国债定价怎么看？20251222 摘要 年末商业银行债供需结构承压，地方债发行比例高企，大行指标接近上 限，保费增速下滑导致保险有效久期下降，长债审批能力受限，需关注 潜在的供需缺口风险。 基金持续卖出长债，今年净卖出超长债累计约 600 亿，基金中长期利率 债久期回到 4 月初水平，长债仓位下降和风险初步释放，但未来仍可能 波动。 明年整体供需结构面临压力，预计净融资量增加至 6.76-6.8 万亿水平。 若需求不足，高成本可能导致缩短发债期间。一季度地方政府计划发行 量仍处于历史高位。 预计明年基金对超长久期品种的需求将维持在 2023 年的水平，略弱于 2024 年，但好于 2020 上半年。保险方面，由于低利率环境下分红险 比例提高，其对超长期品种配置比例可能下降。 预计明年保险行业对偿付比例的需求将延续今年的下降趋势，对超长期 债券的需求可能减少约 2000 亿元。银行方面，若维持今年创债买入比 例，其退价份额将小幅下降约 1,000 亿元。 基金方面，今年（2025 年）超长久期策略有所调整，从中长期策略转向灵活 变化，以适应低利率环境中的交易需求。预计明年（2026 年）基金对超长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of land financialization on corporate bond pricing in China, highlighting how local government actions influence credit spreads through explicit support mechanisms [1][2][3]. Group 1: Land Financialization and Bond Pricing - Land financialization is defined as the process of converting land resources into capital, which has positively contributed to urbanization and economic development in China [2][3]. - The study analyzes data from 265 prefecture-level cities in China from 2016 to 2023, focusing on the relationship between land financialization and corporate bond pricing [1][8]. - The findings indicate that land financialization increases bond credit spreads through local government revenue enhancement and expenditure reduction [1][23]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Influence - The article identifies two main mechanisms through which land financialization affects bond pricing: explicit support and implicit guarantees [2][3]. - Explicit support includes government subsidies, tax reductions, and procurement support, which can lead to over-financing by companies [2][3]. - Implicit guarantees create market expectations that the government will intervene in case of bond defaults, leading to mispricing of bonds [2][3]. Group 3: Empirical Analysis and Findings - The empirical analysis employs a fixed-effects model to assess the impact of land financialization on bond pricing, revealing a positive correlation between land financialization and credit spreads [8][16]. - The study also examines the role of non-tax expenditures and government subsidies as mediating variables, confirming that increased non-tax expenditures and reduced subsidies during land market adjustments lead to wider credit spreads [20][21]. - The results show that the effect of land financialization on credit spreads varies by ownership structure, with state-owned enterprises being more significantly affected [22][23]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that local governments should adopt diversified policy tools to optimize land resource utilization and reduce financial pressures, thereby mitigating the risks associated with land financialization [23][24]. - It emphasizes the need for companies to enhance their market pricing capabilities for bonds and improve their financial structures to counteract the adverse effects of land financialization [24][25].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, particularly focusing on the **real estate sector**, **industrial investment**, and **macroeconomic analysis**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Decline of Real Estate Investment**: Real estate investment's share in GDP has significantly decreased from 14% to 7%, with residential investment dropping to 3.3%, indicating that real estate is no longer a core driver of the macro economy, necessitating a shift in analytical frameworks towards consumption and other factors [1][4][17]. 2. **Impact on Savings and Investment**: The decline in real estate investment has led to a surplus in savings, with funds being redirected towards manufacturing investments and government bonds. Understanding these fund flows is crucial for macroeconomic analysis [1][4][17]. 3. **Challenges in Increasing Consumption**: China's consumption rate is relatively low, below 60%, and increasing it is a long-term process facing challenges such as income distribution and low consumer propensity. This situation cannot be simply compared to the consumption-driven model of the U.S. [1][8][11][10]. 4. **Industrial Investment's Role**: Industrial investment remains important for short-term demand and medium-term supply, influencing overall economic structure and inflation. Future macro analysis should focus on the relationship between fiscal policy and industrial production [3][20]. 5. **Shift in Financial Dynamics**: As real estate financing declines, government bond financing has increased rapidly, indicating a shift in the financial system's role in driving the real economy. The structure of social financing has changed, reducing its guiding role for macroeconomic indicators [1][18][19]. 6. **Inflation and Consumer Behavior**: A moderate inflation environment is more conducive to stable consumer behavior, while high inflation can lead to unhealthy consumption patterns. The analysis suggests that low inflation should be a core focus in future macroeconomic assessments [1][15][23]. 7. **Adjustment of Bond Pricing Logic**: The traditional bond pricing logic, heavily reliant on real estate, needs to be adjusted to consider broader macroeconomic fundamentals as real estate's influence wanes [2][24][25]. 8. **Long-term Economic Transition**: The transition from a real estate-driven economy to one that may focus more on consumption and services will take decades, requiring careful analysis of structural changes in the economy [10][12][28]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Propensity**: China's consumer propensity is around 70%, significantly lower than in developed countries, which affects the potential for a consumption-driven economy [11][12]. 2. **Employment Market Structure**: The dual structure of the labor market in China complicates the accurate reflection of economic changes, making it risky to base macroeconomic analysis solely on consumption [13][16]. 3. **Future Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The changing economic structure necessitates adjustments in monetary policy, particularly in addressing low inflation and fiscal operations, with a potential shift towards unconventional measures like quantitative easing [27][28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving dynamics of the Chinese economy and the implications for macroeconomic analysis and investment strategies.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term bond market is under pressure. If 1.8% is verified as the top level of 10 - year treasury bonds, the bond - bull logic can be maintained. In the medium term, the recovery of risk preference is reflected in the term spread premium, which may reach 50 - 60BP. In September 2025, the bond market may experience a weak recovery [3][9]. - After the stock - bond market desensitizes, the bond market has not recovered. The uncertainty of the public fund liability side still exists, and the bond market is still hovering between adjustment and recovery [3][10]. - After the long - term yield reaches a new high, the sensitivity to fundamental and liquidity positives will increase. The decline of government bond net financing scale will promote the return of allocation - disk power and the stabilization of the bond market [3][13]. - Liquidity is still loose. The short - term yield has slightly increased, and there is still room for a central decline if the policy rate is cut [4][15]. - The term spread has fully priced the change in risk preference. The bond's allocation value has emerged, and the probability of extreme compression of the term spread is low [4][24]. Summary by Directory 1 Bond Pricing in the "Three Spreads" - **Short - and Medium - Term Market Outlook**: Short - term bond market is under pressure. Verifying the top level of 10 - year treasury bonds can maintain the bond - bull logic. In the medium term, the term spread premium may reach 50 - 60BP, and the bond market in September may have a weak recovery [3][9]. - **Current Bond Market Situation**: After the stock - bond desensitization, the bond market sentiment has not recovered. The uncertainty of the public fund liability side exists, and the bond market is in adjustment and recovery [10]. - **Long - Term Yield and Market Reaction**: After the long - term yield reaches a new high, the sensitivity to positives increases. The decline of government bond net financing will promote market stabilization [13]. - **Liquidity Analysis**: Liquidity is loose. The short - term yield has increased slightly, and there is room for a central decline if the policy rate is cut [4][15]. - **Measurement of Risk Preference Pricing**: - The spread between inter - bank certificates of deposit and funds is at the upper edge of the fluctuation range [4][17]. - The spread between ultra - long - term and long - term bonds is fully priced, and the long - short spread is close to the historical center [4][19]. - The adjustment of credit spread is relatively lagged and is protected by defensive strategies and wealth - management allocation disks [22]. - **Conclusion**: The term spread has fully priced the change in risk preference. The bond's allocation value has emerged, and the probability of extreme compression of the term spread is low [24].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market, particularly focusing on local government bonds and the impact of VAT adjustments on pricing and investment strategies [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Dynamics** - Local government bond yields are converging, with a notable focus on older bonds that have higher coupons and better liquidity. New code bonds need to be reassessed for relative and absolute returns [1][3]. 2. **Impact of VAT on Bond Pricing** - Following the reintroduction of VAT, the pricing of bonds has shown a convergence in volatility. For instance, the yield range for 10-year government bonds has decreased from 1.70-1.75% to 1.68-1.72%, indicating a market in a waiting phase [2][7]. 3. **New Code Bonds Performance** - New code local government bonds are actively issued, with yields averaging 5 basis points higher than old code bonds. The pricing reflects a 3% VAT, primarily driven by proprietary trading desks, indicating a balance in tax burden sharing [4][6]. 4. **Liquidity and Spread Changes** - Both new and old local government bonds exhibit high liquidity, leading to a narrowing of spreads. The 30-year and 10-year government bonds are highlighted as having significant investment value due to their high spread positions [5][6]. 5. **Real Estate Market Insights** - The recent easing of real estate purchase restrictions in Beijing does not signal a new relaxation cycle. Existing policies are near their limits, and significant recovery in the real estate market is unlikely until 2026, requiring additional policy measures [6][7]. 6. **Inflation and Economic Stimulus** - Inflation recovery is expected to take time, with commodity prices reflecting more elasticity in futures rather than spot markets. Structural economic stimulus measures are deemed necessary for long-term stability [1][6]. 7. **Central Bank's Cautious Approach** - The central bank has shown caution in liquidity provision, with recent operations indicating a careful approach to market dynamics. The probability of funding rates dropping below 1.2% is considered low, reflecting a stable yet cautious monetary policy stance [2][7]. Other Important Insights - The market's risk appetite is diminishing, with a shift in focus from risk assets to bond market dynamics. The correlation between stock markets and bond markets has weakened, indicating a more cautious investment environment [2][3]. - The competition for older bonds is categorized into three types based on their issuance time, coupon rates, and liquidity, highlighting the strategic adjustments needed in investment approaches [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for August is "Bullish", suggesting that going long in the bond market is the path of least resistance [3][20]. Core Viewpoints - The tax policy adjustment on August 8, 2025, will resume the collection of VAT on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds, which will impact bond pricing and investment strategies [2][6]. - The bond market is recommended to go long in August, with the 10Y Treasury yield expected to return to around 1.65% and the 5Y state - owned and joint - stock secondary bonds to fall below 1.9% [3][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tax Policy Changes - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds, with a clear demarcation between old and new bonds, and no changes to income tax and bond transfer income tax policies [2][6]. - Before the new tax policy, general financial institutions paid 6% VAT on interest income during financial product holding, while asset management products and public funds paid 3% using the simplified tax calculation method. Interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial inter - bank transactions was VAT - exempt [2][8]. - After the new policy, public funds will pay a total of 3.26% VAT and surcharges on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, while the trading spread income remains VAT - exempt. Asset management products like bank wealth management need to pay 3.26% VAT and surcharges on both interest and trading spread income of newly - issued bonds [2][9]. - Commercial banks' self - operation will pay a total of 6.34% VAT and surcharges on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, while the interest income of bonds issued before remains VAT - exempt until maturity [10]. - The interest income from inter - bank certificates of deposit and inter - bank deposits will continue to be VAT - exempt [2][12]. - The interest income from discounted government bonds and policy - based financial bonds issued after August 8 may be subject to VAT [11]. Impact on Bond Pricing - The new tax policy may cause a yield spread of 5 - 10BP between government bonds and financial bonds issued before and after August 8, mainly to compensate for the VAT difference [2][14][15]. - The new tax policy will make the yields of newly - issued corporate bonds and financial bonds of the same term and rating closer, but there are still capital occupation differences for bank self - operation investors [3][19][20]. Impact on Commercial Banks - As of the end of March 2025, the balance of financial bonds issued by commercial banks was 10.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.9% of total liabilities. The new tax policy has a small impact on commercial banks' liability costs and short - term performance [2][13]. Investment Recommendations - In August, the bond market is recommended to go long, with a preference for long - duration sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds, and US dollar bonds. Perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and attention should be paid to the capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [3][20].

Core Viewpoint - General Motors has priced $2 billion in senior notes with varying yields based on maturity dates [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Debt Issuance - The company has issued senior notes totaling $2 billion [1] - The yield for the bonds maturing in 2028 is set at 5.350% [1] - The yield for the bonds maturing in 2030 is set at 5.625% [1] - The yield for the bonds maturing in 2035 is set at 6.250% [1]