登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 ◇ 作者：天津工业大学经济与管理学院教授 李程 天津大学管理学院硕士研究生 刘莹斐 ◇ 本文原载《债券》2025年9月刊 摘 要 土地金融化是将土地资源转化为资本的过程，在促进我国城镇化进程中发挥了积极作用，同时也对我国宏观经济和金融市场带来了影响。本文聚焦土地金 融化对企业债券定价的影响，并以2016—2023年我国265个地级市的相关数据为研究样本，结合同期发行债券的A股公司数据，构建面板数据，并进行了 实证分析。结果表明，土地金融化通过地方政府的增收减支等"显性扶持"行为，对债券定价产生影响。最后本文提出了相关结论和政策建议。 关键词 土地金融化 债券定价 地方政府干预 信用利差 引言 土地金融化是指运用金融工具将土地资源转化为资本的过程，是土地资源与金融市场的深度融合。地方政府运用土地资源进行融资的过程体现了土地金融 化。土地金融化促进了我国城镇化进程，为城市建设提供了资金，提升了土地价值，并带动了经济发展。但随着土地市场进入调整期，土地金融化对地方 政府财政、金融市场和企业经营的影响日益明显，进而对企业债券定价产生影响。 长期以来，市场对企业债券定价 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, particularly focusing on the **real estate sector**, **industrial investment**, and **macroeconomic analysis**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Decline of Real Estate Investment**: Real estate investment's share in GDP has significantly decreased from 14% to 7%, with residential investment dropping to 3.3%, indicating that real estate is no longer a core driver of the macro economy, necessitating a shift in analytical frameworks towards consumption and other factors [1][4][17]. 2. **Impact on Savings and Investment**: The decline in real estate investment has led to a surplus in savings, with funds being redirected towards manufacturing investments and government bonds. Understanding these fund flows is crucial for macroeconomic analysis [1][4][17]. 3. **Challenges in Increasing Consumption**: China's consumption rate is relatively low, below 60%, and increasing it is a long-term process facing challenges such as income distribution and low consumer propensity. This situation cannot be simply compared to the consumption-driven model of the U.S. [1][8][11][10]. 4. **Industrial Investment's Role**: Industrial investment remains important for short-term demand and medium-term supply, influencing overall economic structure and inflation. Future macro analysis should focus on the relationship between fiscal policy and industrial production [3][20]. 5. **Shift in Financial Dynamics**: As real estate financing declines, government bond financing has increased rapidly, indicating a shift in the financial system's role in driving the real economy. The structure of social financing has changed, reducing its guiding role for macroeconomic indicators [1][18][19]. 6. **Inflation and Consumer Behavior**: A moderate inflation environment is more conducive to stable consumer behavior, while high inflation can lead to unhealthy consumption patterns. The analysis suggests that low inflation should be a core focus in future macroeconomic assessments [1][15][23]. 7. **Adjustment of Bond Pricing Logic**: The traditional bond pricing logic, heavily reliant on real estate, needs to be adjusted to consider broader macroeconomic fundamentals as real estate's influence wanes [2][24][25]. 8. **Long-term Economic Transition**: The transition from a real estate-driven economy to one that may focus more on consumption and services will take decades, requiring careful analysis of structural changes in the economy [10][12][28]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Propensity**: China's consumer propensity is around 70%, significantly lower than in developed countries, which affects the potential for a consumption-driven economy [11][12]. 2. **Employment Market Structure**: The dual structure of the labor market in China complicates the accurate reflection of economic changes, making it risky to base macroeconomic analysis solely on consumption [13][16]. 3. **Future Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The changing economic structure necessitates adjustments in monetary policy, particularly in addressing low inflation and fiscal operations, with a potential shift towards unconventional measures like quantitative easing [27][28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving dynamics of the Chinese economy and the implications for macroeconomic analysis and investment strategies.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term bond market is under pressure. If 1.8% is verified as the top level of 10 - year treasury bonds, the bond - bull logic can be maintained. In the medium term, the recovery of risk preference is reflected in the term spread premium, which may reach 50 - 60BP. In September 2025, the bond market may experience a weak recovery [3][9]. - After the stock - bond market desensitizes, the bond market has not recovered. The uncertainty of the public fund liability side still exists, and the bond market is still hovering between adjustment and recovery [3][10]. - After the long - term yield reaches a new high, the sensitivity to fundamental and liquidity positives will increase. The decline of government bond net financing scale will promote the return of allocation - disk power and the stabilization of the bond market [3][13]. - Liquidity is still loose. The short - term yield has slightly increased, and there is still room for a central decline if the policy rate is cut [4][15]. - The term spread has fully priced the change in risk preference. The bond's allocation value has emerged, and the probability of extreme compression of the term spread is low [4][24]. Summary by Directory 1 Bond Pricing in the "Three Spreads" - **Short - and Medium - Term Market Outlook**: Short - term bond market is under pressure. Verifying the top level of 10 - year treasury bonds can maintain the bond - bull logic. In the medium term, the term spread premium may reach 50 - 60BP, and the bond market in September may have a weak recovery [3][9]. - **Current Bond Market Situation**: After the stock - bond desensitization, the bond market sentiment has not recovered. The uncertainty of the public fund liability side exists, and the bond market is in adjustment and recovery [10]. - **Long - Term Yield and Market Reaction**: After the long - term yield reaches a new high, the sensitivity to positives increases. The decline of government bond net financing will promote market stabilization [13]. - **Liquidity Analysis**: Liquidity is loose. The short - term yield has increased slightly, and there is room for a central decline if the policy rate is cut [4][15]. - **Measurement of Risk Preference Pricing**: - The spread between inter - bank certificates of deposit and funds is at the upper edge of the fluctuation range [4][17]. - The spread between ultra - long - term and long - term bonds is fully priced, and the long - short spread is close to the historical center [4][19]. - The adjustment of credit spread is relatively lagged and is protected by defensive strategies and wealth - management allocation disks [22]. - **Conclusion**: The term spread has fully priced the change in risk preference. The bond's allocation value has emerged, and the probability of extreme compression of the term spread is low [24].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market, particularly focusing on local government bonds and the impact of VAT adjustments on pricing and investment strategies [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Dynamics** - Local government bond yields are converging, with a notable focus on older bonds that have higher coupons and better liquidity. New code bonds need to be reassessed for relative and absolute returns [1][3]. 2. **Impact of VAT on Bond Pricing** - Following the reintroduction of VAT, the pricing of bonds has shown a convergence in volatility. For instance, the yield range for 10-year government bonds has decreased from 1.70-1.75% to 1.68-1.72%, indicating a market in a waiting phase [2][7]. 3. **New Code Bonds Performance** - New code local government bonds are actively issued, with yields averaging 5 basis points higher than old code bonds. The pricing reflects a 3% VAT, primarily driven by proprietary trading desks, indicating a balance in tax burden sharing [4][6]. 4. **Liquidity and Spread Changes** - Both new and old local government bonds exhibit high liquidity, leading to a narrowing of spreads. The 30-year and 10-year government bonds are highlighted as having significant investment value due to their high spread positions [5][6]. 5. **Real Estate Market Insights** - The recent easing of real estate purchase restrictions in Beijing does not signal a new relaxation cycle. Existing policies are near their limits, and significant recovery in the real estate market is unlikely until 2026, requiring additional policy measures [6][7]. 6. **Inflation and Economic Stimulus** - Inflation recovery is expected to take time, with commodity prices reflecting more elasticity in futures rather than spot markets. Structural economic stimulus measures are deemed necessary for long-term stability [1][6]. 7. **Central Bank's Cautious Approach** - The central bank has shown caution in liquidity provision, with recent operations indicating a careful approach to market dynamics. The probability of funding rates dropping below 1.2% is considered low, reflecting a stable yet cautious monetary policy stance [2][7]. Other Important Insights - The market's risk appetite is diminishing, with a shift in focus from risk assets to bond market dynamics. The correlation between stock markets and bond markets has weakened, indicating a more cautious investment environment [2][3]. - The competition for older bonds is categorized into three types based on their issuance time, coupon rates, and liquidity, highlighting the strategic adjustments needed in investment approaches [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for August is "Bullish", suggesting that going long in the bond market is the path of least resistance [3][20]. Core Viewpoints - The tax policy adjustment on August 8, 2025, will resume the collection of VAT on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds, which will impact bond pricing and investment strategies [2][6]. - The bond market is recommended to go long in August, with the 10Y Treasury yield expected to return to around 1.65% and the 5Y state - owned and joint - stock secondary bonds to fall below 1.9% [3][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tax Policy Changes - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds, with a clear demarcation between old and new bonds, and no changes to income tax and bond transfer income tax policies [2][6]. - Before the new tax policy, general financial institutions paid 6% VAT on interest income during financial product holding, while asset management products and public funds paid 3% using the simplified tax calculation method. Interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial inter - bank transactions was VAT - exempt [2][8]. - After the new policy, public funds will pay a total of 3.26% VAT and surcharges on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, while the trading spread income remains VAT - exempt. Asset management products like bank wealth management need to pay 3.26% VAT and surcharges on both interest and trading spread income of newly - issued bonds [2][9]. - Commercial banks' self - operation will pay a total of 6.34% VAT and surcharges on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, while the interest income of bonds issued before remains VAT - exempt until maturity [10]. - The interest income from inter - bank certificates of deposit and inter - bank deposits will continue to be VAT - exempt [2][12]. - The interest income from discounted government bonds and policy - based financial bonds issued after August 8 may be subject to VAT [11]. Impact on Bond Pricing - The new tax policy may cause a yield spread of 5 - 10BP between government bonds and financial bonds issued before and after August 8, mainly to compensate for the VAT difference [2][14][15]. - The new tax policy will make the yields of newly - issued corporate bonds and financial bonds of the same term and rating closer, but there are still capital occupation differences for bank self - operation investors [3][19][20]. Impact on Commercial Banks - As of the end of March 2025, the balance of financial bonds issued by commercial banks was 10.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.9% of total liabilities. The new tax policy has a small impact on commercial banks' liability costs and short - term performance [2][13]. Investment Recommendations - In August, the bond market is recommended to go long, with a preference for long - duration sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds, and US dollar bonds. Perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and attention should be paid to the capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [3][20].

Core Viewpoint - General Motors has priced $2 billion in senior notes with varying yields based on maturity dates [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Debt Issuance - The company has issued senior notes totaling $2 billion [1] - The yield for the bonds maturing in 2028 is set at 5.350% [1] - The yield for the bonds maturing in 2030 is set at 5.625% [1] - The yield for the bonds maturing in 2035 is set at 6.250% [1]