增值税调整，债券策略再思考 20250811 新代码的地方政府债券发行活跃度如何？市场机构对其兴趣如何？ 新代码的地方政府债券在发行活跃度方面表现出色。根据测算，新代码债券的 收益率比旧代码债券平均高出 5 个基点，定价约为 3%的增值税。这一定价水 平反映了市场机构对新代码债券的额外溢价回报要求。尽管资管机构征收 3% 的增值税，自营机构征收 6%，但新代码债券主要由自营盘主导，因此其定价 在 0%到 6%之间，最终博弈结果为 3%。这表明自营类机构并未完全将税负转 嫁给发行人，而是达成了双方利益的平衡。 对于市场兴趣而言，自营类机构对 新代码地方政府债券表现出较高兴趣，因为这些债券在税前考核下具有投资吸 引力。尽管增值税可能影响利润，但只要新代码债券回报率高于旧代码，投资 者仍然乐于接受。此外，如果未来有更多通道型产品参与二级市场交易，新代 码债券的定价增值税影响可能进一步降低至 2%-3%。 新旧地方政府债券在流动性和利差方面有何变化？ 新旧地方政府债券在流动性和利差方面均表现出显著变化。由于新旧两种编码 的活跃度都较高，新老码之间的利差将进一步收窄。这意味着之前因流动性差 异导致的新老码利差将有所减少 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for August is "Bullish", suggesting that going long in the bond market is the path of least resistance [3][20]. Core Viewpoints - The tax policy adjustment on August 8, 2025, will resume the collection of VAT on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds, which will impact bond pricing and investment strategies [2][6]. - The bond market is recommended to go long in August, with the 10Y Treasury yield expected to return to around 1.65% and the 5Y state - owned and joint - stock secondary bonds to fall below 1.9% [3][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tax Policy Changes - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds, with a clear demarcation between old and new bonds, and no changes to income tax and bond transfer income tax policies [2][6]. - Before the new tax policy, general financial institutions paid 6% VAT on interest income during financial product holding, while asset management products and public funds paid 3% using the simplified tax calculation method. Interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial inter - bank transactions was VAT - exempt [2][8]. - After the new policy, public funds will pay a total of 3.26% VAT and surcharges on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, while the trading spread income remains VAT - exempt. Asset management products like bank wealth management need to pay 3.26% VAT and surcharges on both interest and trading spread income of newly - issued bonds [2][9]. - Commercial banks' self - operation will pay a total of 6.34% VAT and surcharges on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, while the interest income of bonds issued before remains VAT - exempt until maturity [10]. - The interest income from inter - bank certificates of deposit and inter - bank deposits will continue to be VAT - exempt [2][12]. - The interest income from discounted government bonds and policy - based financial bonds issued after August 8 may be subject to VAT [11]. Impact on Bond Pricing - The new tax policy may cause a yield spread of 5 - 10BP between government bonds and financial bonds issued before and after August 8, mainly to compensate for the VAT difference [2][14][15]. - The new tax policy will make the yields of newly - issued corporate bonds and financial bonds of the same term and rating closer, but there are still capital occupation differences for bank self - operation investors [3][19][20]. Impact on Commercial Banks - As of the end of March 2025, the balance of financial bonds issued by commercial banks was 10.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.9% of total liabilities. The new tax policy has a small impact on commercial banks' liability costs and short - term performance [2][13]. Investment Recommendations - In August, the bond market is recommended to go long, with a preference for long - duration sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds, and US dollar bonds. Perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and attention should be paid to the capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [3][20].

2035年到期债券收益率6.250%。 通用汽车为20亿美元高级票据定价。 2028年到期公司债收益率5.350%。 2030年到期债券收益率5.625%。 ...