锡：关注宏观地缘影响 2026 年 3 月 2 日 | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 唐文豪（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03152608 | tangwenhao@gtht.com | 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 【趋势强度】 锡趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 沪锡主力合约 | 453,240 | 8.53% | 455,610 | 5.65% | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 58,050 | 6.74% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "Oscillating and Consolidating" [1] 2. Core View - The report provides comprehensive data on the tin market, including price movements, trading volumes, inventory levels, and key industrial prices. The trend strength of tin is rated as 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 392,080 with a daily increase of 5.03%, and the night - session closing price was 379,270 with a decrease of 3.41%. - The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk futures was 48,360 with a decrease of 3.85% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 319,493, a decrease of 53,942 from the previous day, and the open interest was 35,914, an increase of 481. - The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk was 616, a decrease of 523, and the open interest was 25,406, an increase of 155 [2] - **Inventory Data**: - The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 7,411, a decrease of 377. - The inventory of LME Tin was 7,110, an increase of 15, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Spread Data**: - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 395,050, an increase of 13,150. - The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 395,500, an increase of 18,100. - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 241, an increase of 59. - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 194,960, unchanged. - The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 12,160, an increase of 27,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 381,050, an increase of 13,150. - The price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 385,050, an increase of 13,150. - The price of 63A solder bar was 261,250, an increase of 8,000. - The price of 60A solder bar was 250,250, an increase of 8,000 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with former US President Donald Trump. - Negotiations between Iran and the US will be held in Oman on the 6th. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that space photovoltaic technology is still in the initial stage of exploration and verification. - NASDAQ plans to introduce a "fast - track inclusion" rule to handle large - scale IPOs such as SpaceX [4] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength values being in the [- 2,2] integer interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report indicates that tin is in a phase of decline and consolidation, with a trend strength of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 392,650, with a daily decline of 11.00%, and the night - session closing price was 360,000, with a decline of 12.38%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk futures was 45,605, with a decline of 9.87%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 277,948 to 190,922, and the position decreased by 1,757 to 38,322. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk increased by 153 to 1,143, and the position decreased by 14 to 25,211 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 427 to 8,097, and the inventory of LME Tin increased by 10 to 7,105. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, with a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 35,900 to 392,750, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price decreased by 31,000 to 392,500. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 27 to - 227, the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract remained unchanged at 198,590, and the spread between the spot and the futures main contract increased by 6,130 to - 16,500 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) decreased by 35,900 to 378,750, the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) decreased by 35,900 to 382,750, the price of 63A solder bar decreased by 22,500 to 260,250, and the price of 60A solder bar decreased by 21,500 to 248,750 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson stated that the details of talks with the US are still in the decision - making stage. The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice on market risk control. Ant CEO issued an internal letter to increase incentives for "pioneering contributions" in AI. Medvedev confirmed that Russia and the US are having secret consultations [4].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the tin industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] Group 3: Summary Based on the Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 429,570, with a daily increase of 5.03%, and the closing price of the night session was 447,140, with a night - session increase of 4.09%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 56,605, with a daily increase of 7.49%. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin increased by 102,997 to 378,618, and the position increased by 33,940 to 56,254. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 361 to 890, and the position increased by 202 to 23,931 [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse - Receipt Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,582, a decrease of 34. The inventory of LME Tin was 7,195, and the cancellation warehouse - receipt ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price - Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 420,300, an increase of 17,050. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 423,300, an increase of 20,000. The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was - 245, a decrease of 56. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 233,310, an increase of 19,730. The spread between the spot and the main futures contract was 14,290, an increase of 29,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 406,300, an increase of 17,050. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 410,300, an increase of 17,050. The price of 63A solder bar was 277,750, an increase of 11,000. The price of 60A solder bar was 265,250, an increase of 10,000 [2] Macro and Industry News - Negotiations among delegations from Ukraine, the US, and Russia in Abu Dhabi, UAE have ended - Huang Renxun, the founder of NVIDIA, visited China again, with his first stop being NVIDIA's new office in Shanghai - OpenAI's API business increased its annual recurring revenue by $1 billion last month - The central bank governor stated to promote the internationalization of the RMB in an orderly manner [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Date and Title - Date: January 9, 2026; Title: "Tin: Loosening at High Levels" [1] 2. Analysts and Contact Information - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com); Contact: Tang Wenhao (Futures Qualification No.: F03152608, Email: tangwenhao@gtht.com) [2] 3. Fundamental Tracking Futures - **Prices**: Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 349,640 yuan with a -2.62% daily increase and 347,430 yuan at night with a -1.53% increase; LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 43,675 with a -2.18% daily increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Tin main contract had 400,445 trades (-59,464 compared to the previous day) and 38,798 open interests (-5,171); LME Tin 3M electronic disk had 1,065 trades (43 more) and 660 open interests (371 more) [2] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 6,788 (8 more); LME Tin inventory was 5,405 (unchanged), and the cancellation warrant ratio was 6.57% (-0.38%) [2] Spot and Price Difference - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 tin ingot price was 355,050 yuan (-900 compared to the previous day); Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin average price was 352,900 yuan (-4,400) [2] - **Price Differences**: LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was -52 (13 more); the spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was 153,860 (unchanged); the spread between spot and the futures main contract was -6,150 (-14,630) [2] Industrial Chain Key Price Data - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) price was 343,050 yuan (-900); 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) price was 347,050 yuan (-900); 63A solder bar price was 236,750 yuan (-500); 60A solder bar price was 226,750 yuan (-500) [2] 4. Macro and Industry News - Trump hopes to visit Venezuela; the Fed reported that the one - year inflation expectation in the US rose to 3.42% (previous value: 3.2%); the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the "Volunteer Alliance" and Ukraine are the "war axis"; the World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs set a record high in annual capital inflows in 2025 [2][4] 5. Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity is 0, with the range of [-2, 2] representing different views from most bearish (-2) to most bullish (2) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the tin market, showing that long - position funds faced obstacles, leading to a price increase followed by a decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Electronic Disk Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 359,050 with a daily increase of 2.93%, and the night - session closing price was 355,170 with a - 0.28% change compared to the previous day. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,650 with a 0.34% increase [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 459,909, an increase of 134,924 from the previous day, and the position was 43,969, an increase of 2,774. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 180, a decrease of 9, and the position was 13,988, an increase of 53 [1]. - The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,780, a decrease of 306, and the inventory of LME Tin was 5,405, a decrease of 15. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [1]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 355,950, an increase of 14,900 from the previous day; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 357,300, an increase of 15,200 [1]. - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 65, a decrease of 35; the spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was 162,370, unchanged; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 8,480, an increase of 750 [1]. - **Industry Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 343,950, an increase of 14,900; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 347,950, an increase of 14,900 [1]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 237,250, an increase of 9,500; the price of 60A solder bar was 227,250, an increase of 9,000 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The memory market has entered a "super bull market" with a 40% - 50% increase expected in Q1 [2]. - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aim to accelerate the industrialization and commercialization of new terminals such as AR/VR wearable devices and brain - computer interfaces [2]. - The People's Bank of China carried out 110 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on January 8 [2]. - The US will "distribute on commission" Venezuelan oil and requires Venezuela to cut economic ties with China and Russia [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 representing the most bearish and 2 representing the most bullish [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of tin has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength of tin is 1, indicating a neutral view [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 298,140 with a daily increase of 1.95%, and the night - session closing price was 294,500 with a decrease of 0.74%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,065 with a decrease of 0.91%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared with the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 and the positions increased by 53 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,698, an increase of 252 compared with the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 3,055, unchanged from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 297,400, an increase of 5,000 compared with the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 34. The spot - to - futures main contract spread increased by 740 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars increased by 1,000 compared with the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the market predicted that the probability of an interest rate cut in December was less than 50%. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump's chief economic advisor estimated that the government shutdown caused 60,000 people to lose their jobs. China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. European officials were discussing building a US dollar reserve pool. Tencent's Q3 net profit increased by 19% year - on - year, and it planned to have lower capital expenditure in 2025 and sufficient GPU reserves [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being an integer in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The report focuses on tin, highlighting the need to pay attention to macro - level impacts. The trend strength of tin is rated as 1, indicating a neutral stance [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: - For the Shanghai Tin main contract, the yesterday's closing price was 286,350 with a daily decline of 0.26%, and the night - session closing price was 280,830 with a decline of 2.63%. The trading volume was 105,146, an increase of 26,165 from the previous day, and the open interest was 34,660, a decrease of 288 from the previous day. The inventory was 5,809, a decrease of 42 from the previous day [2]. - For the LME Tin 3M electronic disk, the yesterday's closing price was 35,350 with a decline of 3.99%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,410, an increase of 20 from the previous day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2]. - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 284,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 288,600, an increase of 5,000 from the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 62, a decrease of 5 from the previous day [2]. - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 91,110, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 1,510, a decrease of 8,380 from the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 272,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 276,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day [2]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 191,750, an increase of 4,500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 183,750, an increase of 4,000 from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that China's export controls on rare earths and other items are not a ban on exports, and hopes that the US will correct its mistakes and engage in dialogue and negotiation [3]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, stating that the facts are clear and the evidence is conclusive [3]. - The list of candidates for the Fed Chair has been narrowed to five, and a BlackRock executive impressed someone. Fed Governor Waller is concerned about the job market and is open to a 25 - basis - point rate cut [3]. - The White House announced permanent layoffs in the Trump administration for the first time in modern US history [3]. - The release of the US September CPI report is scheduled for October 24, 9 days later than originally planned [3]. - Japan's ruling coalition has broken up, with Komeito announcing it will no longer form a coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party and rejecting support for Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a situation of "tight reality and weak expectations" for tin in 2025 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 265,150 with a daily decline of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 264,180 with a decline of 0.18%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 32,560 with a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 17,972 to 51,029, and the position decreased by 523 to 25,639. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 to 180, and the position increased by 53 to 13,988 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The futures inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 32 to 6,842, and that of LME Tin remained unchanged at 2,365. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 500 to 265,300, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price decreased by 500 to 265,100. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 84 to - 79. The spot - to - futures main contract spread decreased by 2,610 to - 430 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan), 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi), 63A solder bar, and 60A solder bar all decreased by 500 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US May CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. Trump's "confidence in the Iran nuclear negotiations has weakened", and US officials said the US would reduce the scale of its mission in Iraq, causing crude oil prices to surge by more than 5% during trading. Musk publicly apologized to Trump. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Federal Appellate Court extended the validity of Trump's tariffs, and a key hearing will be held at the end of July. The EU refused to compromise on Trump's tariff deadline and plans to postpone trade negotiations until after July. US Treasury Secretary Besent said US inflation data was "very good" [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].