Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The aluminum market is significantly affected by macro - factors. With the continuous escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and the release of negotiation signals, along with the influence of China's import and export data, the market sentiment fluctuates. The short - term trend of Shanghai Aluminum returns to oscillation, and the medium - term trend depends on the change of spot demand [1][2]. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the market tumbled on Friday night, but rebounded on Sunday morning after the US signaled negotiation. China's September import and export data are optimistic, and market sentiment is repaired. Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20885 today, with the spot price at 20800 and a spot - to - futures discount of - 85 points. Shanghai Aluminum rose first and then fell this week, with the spot discount widening to - 50 yuan and general spot trading [1]. - Crude oil and LME Aluminum rebounded today. Shanghai Aluminum opened low and closed slightly down, with increased trading volume and decreased positions, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2]. Inventory and Demand - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, the SHFE inventory rose slightly, and the spot demand was general. The LME inventory was stable, the LME spot premium rose to 12 US dollars, and overseas demand improved. The end of the off - season led to a slight improvement in spot demand [1]. Price and Ratio - The RMB exchange rate fell slightly this week, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices dropped significantly to 7.53, showing that the domestic market performed weaker than the overseas market [1]. - The alumina price has been falling as the anti - involution hype subsided [2]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | Aluminum - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Sep 29 | 7.1293 | - 30 | - 4 | 7.84 | | Sep 30 | 7.1288 | - 30 | - 2 | 7.75 | | Oct 9 | 7.1378 | - 60 | 2 | 7.73 | | Oct 10 | 7.1483 | - 60 | 8 | 7.59 | | Oct 13 | 7.1358 | - 50 | 12 | 7.53 | [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, a large positive and a large negative line in the Shanghai Nickel market basically digested some macro - impacts during the National Day. Spot trading was acceptable. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading of ternary batteries still declined, having limited impact on nickel demand. In the short - term, sentiment risks increased, and in the medium - to - long - term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [8]. - The Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800. If there is macro - stimulation, the upper and lower limits may expand. Short - selling on rallies can be considered. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: After the holiday, market fluctuations digested macro - impacts. The nickel ore price was firm due to the approaching Philippine rainy season and limited earthquake impact on mining. The nickel - iron price was weakly stable with enterprises in loss. Stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. New energy vehicle data was good, but ternary battery loading declined, limiting nickel demand. Short - term sentiment risks increased, and the medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remained [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may expand the range with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Red soil nickel ore prices remained stable. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased slightly. Low - nickel and high - nickel iron prices were mostly stable. Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased slightly. The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: The nickel ore price was stable, and sea freight was flat. As of October 9, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports was 15.0093 million wet tons, an increase of 6.1%. In August 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million tons, a significant increase. The Philippines was entering the rainy season, and mines had firm quotes. Earthquakes in the Philippines had limited impact on mining. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices oscillated with acceptable trading volume. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would increase, but the oversupply pattern remained. The substitution of ternary in the new energy industry chain was obvious, and nickel demand growth slowed. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, with an increase in October expected. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased [22][26][36]. - **Nickel - Iron Market**: Nickel - iron prices were mainly stable. In September 2025, China's nickel - iron production decreased. In August 2025, the nickel - iron import volume increased significantly. The nickel - iron inventory in August was 218,900 physical tons [43][46][49]. - **Stainless - Steel Market**: The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons. The latest stainless - steel import was 117,100 tons, and the export was 447,900 tons. As of October 10, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, an increase of 77,700 tons [57][63][69]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with significant year - on - year growth. From January to August, production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively. In August, the total output of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, and the power - battery sales volume was 98.9 GWh. The power - battery loading volume was 62.5 GWh, with the ternary battery loading volume decreasing [73][76]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, after the holiday, there was a large positive and a large negative line. There was some capital inflow, and short - selling positions increased. The MACD had no clear direction, and the KDJ was at the 50 mid - value. Technically, the range - oscillation pattern remained unchanged [79]. 4. Industry Chain Combing Summary - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Price**: Nickel ore, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel had a neutral impact on nickel prices. Refined nickel had a neutral - to - bearish impact, and the new energy sector had a neutral impact [82]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may reach 125,800 with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [84][85].

2025 年 10 月 13 日 锡：关注宏观影响 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 1、 中中国商务部：中方依法对稀土等物项出口管制，不是禁止出口；希望美方正视自身错误，与中 方相向而行，回到对话协商的正确轨道上来。 2、 高通公司涉嫌违反反垄断法，市场监管总局依法决定立案调查，称相关事实清楚、证据确凿，将 继续推进相关调查工作。 3、 报道：美联储主席候选人名单缩小至五人，贝莱德高管 Rieder 令贝森特"印象深刻"。美联储理 事沃勒：就业市场是最大担忧，对降息 25 基点持开放态度。 4、 美国现代史上首次，白宫"管家"宣布特朗普政府开始永久性裁员。 5、 美国 9 月 CPI 报告发布时间定于 10 月 24 ...

农产品早报 2025-07-04 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周四美豆先涨后落，美豆周五休市，假日前调整仓位，天气较好及全球丰产施压美豆，不过美豆估值略 低，整体维持区间震荡趋势。周四国内豆粕现货涨 10 元左右，华东报 2830 元/吨，油厂开机率仍较高， 豆粕成交一般，主要是远月成交放量，提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大豆库存为 809 万 吨，油厂豆粕库存 69.16 万吨，维持累库趋势。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳定，中美大豆关税 仍未解除支撑当地升贴水。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主，但也需要注意贸易战若缓和或宏观影响 带来的超预期下跌。 【交易策略 ...

农产品早报 2025-07-03 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 1、高频出口数据显示，马来西亚 6 月前 10 日棕榈油出口量预计增加 8.07%-26.4%，前 15 日预计增加 17%-26.3%，前 20 日出口环增 10.88%-14.31%，前 25 日出口环增 6.63%-6.84%，前 30 日出口环增 4.52%-4.7%。SPPOMA 预计 6 月前 10 日马棕产量环减 17.06%，前 15 日环减 4%，前 20 日产量环增 2.5%， 前 25 日产量环增 3.83%，全月产量环减 0.65%。 2、据外媒报道，贸易机构数据显示，印度 6 月份棕榈油进口量环比激增 61%，达到 95.3 万吨，为 11 个 月来的最高水平。 周三国内油脂收涨，美国参 ...