Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The aluminum market is significantly affected by macro - factors. With the continuous escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and the release of negotiation signals, along with the influence of China's import and export data, the market sentiment fluctuates. The short - term trend of Shanghai Aluminum returns to oscillation, and the medium - term trend depends on the change of spot demand [1][2]. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the market tumbled on Friday night, but rebounded on Sunday morning after the US signaled negotiation. China's September import and export data are optimistic, and market sentiment is repaired. Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20885 today, with the spot price at 20800 and a spot - to - futures discount of - 85 points. Shanghai Aluminum rose first and then fell this week, with the spot discount widening to - 50 yuan and general spot trading [1]. - Crude oil and LME Aluminum rebounded today. Shanghai Aluminum opened low and closed slightly down, with increased trading volume and decreased positions, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2]. Inventory and Demand - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, the SHFE inventory rose slightly, and the spot demand was general. The LME inventory was stable, the LME spot premium rose to 12 US dollars, and overseas demand improved. The end of the off - season led to a slight improvement in spot demand [1]. Price and Ratio - The RMB exchange rate fell slightly this week, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices dropped significantly to 7.53, showing that the domestic market performed weaker than the overseas market [1]. - The alumina price has been falling as the anti - involution hype subsided [2]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | Aluminum - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Sep 29 | 7.1293 | - 30 | - 4 | 7.84 | | Sep 30 | 7.1288 | - 30 | - 2 | 7.75 | | Oct 9 | 7.1378 | - 60 | 2 | 7.73 | | Oct 10 | 7.1483 | - 60 | 8 | 7.59 | | Oct 13 | 7.1358 | - 50 | 12 | 7.53 | [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, a large positive and a large negative line in the Shanghai Nickel market basically digested some macro - impacts during the National Day. Spot trading was acceptable. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading of ternary batteries still declined, having limited impact on nickel demand. In the short - term, sentiment risks increased, and in the medium - to - long - term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [8]. - The Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800. If there is macro - stimulation, the upper and lower limits may expand. Short - selling on rallies can be considered. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: After the holiday, market fluctuations digested macro - impacts. The nickel ore price was firm due to the approaching Philippine rainy season and limited earthquake impact on mining. The nickel - iron price was weakly stable with enterprises in loss. Stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. New energy vehicle data was good, but ternary battery loading declined, limiting nickel demand. Short - term sentiment risks increased, and the medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remained [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may expand the range with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Red soil nickel ore prices remained stable. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased slightly. Low - nickel and high - nickel iron prices were mostly stable. Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased slightly. The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: The nickel ore price was stable, and sea freight was flat. As of October 9, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports was 15.0093 million wet tons, an increase of 6.1%. In August 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million tons, a significant increase. The Philippines was entering the rainy season, and mines had firm quotes. Earthquakes in the Philippines had limited impact on mining. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices oscillated with acceptable trading volume. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would increase, but the oversupply pattern remained. The substitution of ternary in the new energy industry chain was obvious, and nickel demand growth slowed. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, with an increase in October expected. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased [22][26][36]. - **Nickel - Iron Market**: Nickel - iron prices were mainly stable. In September 2025, China's nickel - iron production decreased. In August 2025, the nickel - iron import volume increased significantly. The nickel - iron inventory in August was 218,900 physical tons [43][46][49]. - **Stainless - Steel Market**: The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons. The latest stainless - steel import was 117,100 tons, and the export was 447,900 tons. As of October 10, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, an increase of 77,700 tons [57][63][69]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with significant year - on - year growth. From January to August, production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively. In August, the total output of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, and the power - battery sales volume was 98.9 GWh. The power - battery loading volume was 62.5 GWh, with the ternary battery loading volume decreasing [73][76]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, after the holiday, there was a large positive and a large negative line. There was some capital inflow, and short - selling positions increased. The MACD had no clear direction, and the KDJ was at the 50 mid - value. Technically, the range - oscillation pattern remained unchanged [79]. 4. Industry Chain Combing Summary - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Price**: Nickel ore, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel had a neutral impact on nickel prices. Refined nickel had a neutral - to - bearish impact, and the new energy sector had a neutral impact [82]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may reach 125,800 with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [84][85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The report focuses on tin, highlighting the need to pay attention to macro - level impacts. The trend strength of tin is rated as 1, indicating a neutral stance [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: - For the Shanghai Tin main contract, the yesterday's closing price was 286,350 with a daily decline of 0.26%, and the night - session closing price was 280,830 with a decline of 2.63%. The trading volume was 105,146, an increase of 26,165 from the previous day, and the open interest was 34,660, a decrease of 288 from the previous day. The inventory was 5,809, a decrease of 42 from the previous day [2]. - For the LME Tin 3M electronic disk, the yesterday's closing price was 35,350 with a decline of 3.99%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,410, an increase of 20 from the previous day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2]. - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 284,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 288,600, an increase of 5,000 from the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 62, a decrease of 5 from the previous day [2]. - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 91,110, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 1,510, a decrease of 8,380 from the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 272,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 276,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day [2]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 191,750, an increase of 4,500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 183,750, an increase of 4,000 from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that China's export controls on rare earths and other items are not a ban on exports, and hopes that the US will correct its mistakes and engage in dialogue and negotiation [3]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, stating that the facts are clear and the evidence is conclusive [3]. - The list of candidates for the Fed Chair has been narrowed to five, and a BlackRock executive impressed someone. Fed Governor Waller is concerned about the job market and is open to a 25 - basis - point rate cut [3]. - The White House announced permanent layoffs in the Trump administration for the first time in modern US history [3]. - The release of the US September CPI report is scheduled for October 24, 9 days later than originally planned [3]. - Japan's ruling coalition has broken up, with Komeito announcing it will no longer form a coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party and rejecting support for Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean and protein supply is generally in surplus, and the soybean meal market presents a situation of mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [2][4]. - The draft of the US biodiesel policy supports the central level of the oil market, but the upward space is restricted by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries. The oil market is expected to fluctuate [4][10]. - The sugar price may continue to decline due to weak real - world demand, a chaotic monthly spread structure, and high profit margins for out - of - quota imports [13]. - In the short term, the cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [16]. - For eggs, the mid - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to go short, while in the short term, it is advisable to reduce short positions at low prices or remain on the sidelines [19]. - For pork, it is recommended to go short at high prices for contracts in the second half of the year, and consider short - term long positions at low prices for near - term contracts before delivery [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean/Meal 3.1.1 Market Situation - US soybeans rose first and then fell on Thursday, and the market was closed on Friday. The good weather and global bumper harvest put pressure on US soybeans, but the valuation was slightly low, maintaining a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose about 10 yuan on Thursday, with the East China price at 2830 yuan/ton. The oil mill's开机率 remained high, and the soybean meal sales were average, with far - month sales increasing. The inventory of domestic port soybeans and oil mill soybean meal continued to accumulate [2]. - The cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2850 - 3020 yuan/ton. The current oil mill's crushing volume is at a record high in the same period, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has declined, the inventory accumulation rhythm has accelerated, and the domestic soybean meal valuation has been suppressed [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - In the soybean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. 3.2 Oil 3.2.1 Market Situation - On Thursday, the domestic oil market fluctuated. The US Senate's version 45Z bill stipulates that tax credits are only applicable to North American raw materials, which is beneficial to US soybean oil and drives the oil market. The EPA policy is favorable, but the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still negative factors in the oil market. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [9]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategy - The oil market is expected to fluctuate. Although the draft of the US biodiesel policy supports the central level of the oil market, the upward space is restricted [10]. 3.3 Sugar 3.3.1 Market Situation - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the September contract was 5767 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different trends. As of the end of June 2024/25, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, the sales rate increased, and the industrial inventory decreased year - on - year [12]. 3.3.2 Trading Strategy - The sugar price may continue to decline due to weak real - world demand, a chaotic monthly spread structure, and high profit margins for out - of - quota imports [13]. 3.4 Cotton 3.4.1 Market Situation - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the September contract was 13785 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The US 2025 cotton planting area is expected to be higher than market expectations, and the cotton good - quality rate has increased [15]. 3.4.2 Trading Strategy - In the short term, the cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [16]. 3.5 Eggs 3.5.1 Market Situation - The national egg price was generally stable. The supply was relatively sufficient, the downstream demand was diverse, and the egg price in the sales area was generally slow. It is expected that the egg price will be stable in most areas and may fluctuate slightly in some areas [18]. 3.5.2 Trading Strategy - The mid - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to go short, while in the short term, it is advisable to reduce short positions at low prices or remain on the sidelines [19]. 3.6 Pork 3.6.1 Market Situation - The domestic pork price mainly rose on the previous day, with some areas slightly falling. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream decreased, and it is expected that the supply from farmers will increase and the downstream will have more room to lower prices. The pork price may fall in the north and remain stable in the south [21]. 3.6.2 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to go short at high prices for contracts in the second half of the year, and consider short - term long positions at low prices for near - term contracts before delivery [22]. 3.7 Important Information - Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased in June, while the production showed a mixed trend, and the full - month production decreased by 0.65% month - on - month. Canada's rapeseed export volume increased week - on - week, and the cumulative export volume from August 1, 2024, to June 29, 2025, increased by 50.91% year - on - year [5]. - It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June 2025 will decrease by 0.24% month - on - month, production will decrease by 4.04% month - on - month, and exports will increase by 4.16% month - on - month [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean and meal market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors. The domestic soybean meal valuation is under pressure, but the overall soybean or protein supply is still in excess. It requires a reduction in production at the raw material end to have upward momentum [2][4]. - The oil market is affected by the U.S. biodiesel policy draft, but the upside space is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major demand countries. It is expected to fluctuate [6][8]. - The sugar price may continue to decline due to factors such as weak real - demand during the delivery of the July contract of raw sugar, chaotic domestic monthly spread structure, and high profit from out - of - quota imports [10][11]. - The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate. The U.S. cotton planting intention report is negative, and the high cotton good rate is not conducive to cotton prices. Although the expectation of Sino - U.S. negotiations supports cotton prices, the fundamentals are not favorable [13][14]. - The egg price is expected to be stable in many places. Considering the current situation, the medium - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to short, and the short - term strategy for near - month contracts is to reduce short positions or wait and see [16][18]. - The pig price may stop rising and stabilize in some areas, and continue to rise in others. For near - term contracts, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices before delivery, while for下半年 contracts, short positions can be taken at high prices later [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the U.S. soybean rose driven by U.S. soybean oil. The U.S. Senate extended 45Z to 2029 and restricted tax credits for non - North American raw materials, which is beneficial to U.S. soybean oil. The good weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas puts pressure on U.S. soybeans, but the valuation is slightly low. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by about 10 yuan on Wednesday, the oil mill's operating rate is still high, and the far - month sales volume increased. The domestic port soybean inventory and oil mill soybean meal inventory are in an accumulation trend [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,020 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased in June, while the production decreased slightly. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% month - on - month. The U.S. Senate's 45Z bill is beneficial to U.S. soybean oil, driving up the oil market. The EPA policy is beneficial to the oil market, but there are still negative factors due to the recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The U.S. biodiesel policy draft supports the oil price center, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price first fell and then rebounded. The spot price of sugar in various regions decreased slightly. As of the end of June 2024/25, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The sugar price may continue to decline [11]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated strongly. The U.S. 2025 cotton planting area is higher than expected, and the cotton good rate is higher than the same period last year. The domestic cotton price is supported by the expectation of Sino - U.S. negotiations, but the basis strengthening is not conducive to downstream consumption [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - U.S. negotiations [14]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price is mainly stable, with little change in supply and conservative demand [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The medium - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to short, and the short - term strategy for near - month contracts is to reduce short positions or wait and see [18]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price generally rose yesterday. The supply tension may be alleviated, but the downstream slaughter enterprises' willingness to accept high prices is poor [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices before delivery; for下半年 contracts such as 11 and 01, short positions can be taken at high prices later [21].