Core Viewpoint - 1H25 results were disappointing with a revenue decline of 0.8% YoY to RMB4.36 billion, while adjusted net profits to shareholders increased by 2.1% YoY to RMB1.36 billion, missing expectations [1][2] Revenue Performance - Revenue from legacy products TPIAO and EPO, which accounted for 54% and 16% of total revenue respectively, declined by 4% YoY and 12% YoY due to high base effects, stricter medical insurance controls, increased competition, and negative impacts from province-level VBP [2][3] - Revenue from Sunshine Guojian increased by 8% YoY, driven by its CDMO business, while sales from the alopecia area increased by 24% YoY, attributed to new SKUs and effective digital promotions [3] Profitability - Adjusted net profits to shareholders rose by 2.1% YoY to RMB1.36 billion, although management did not update guidance post-results, indicating challenges in meeting previous double-digit growth expectations [3] Future Developments - The company is closely monitoring Pfizer's development plan for 707, with a focus on its Phase II data in colorectal cancer to be presented at the 2025 ESMO conference [1][3] - Pfizer's near-term objectives include initiating global Phase III development for 707 in various cancers and exploring its potential in combination with Pfizer's ADC therapies [3] Pipeline Updates - The company anticipates new product approvals between 2026-28, including candidates for psoriasis, acute gouty arthritis, adult atopic dermatitis, and asthma, with several in late-stage trials [3] Sales Forecast Adjustments - Post-results, the company revised its 2025-27 sales forecasts, decreasing estimates for legacy products while increasing projections for Mandi due to strong sales momentum [3] - The target price was raised to HK$38.20 based on updated sales forecasts and a revised WACC from 10.6% to 9.7% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 46.32 [7][5]. Core Views - The company is entering a new development phase with stable cash flow from existing products and new growth from innovative drugs. The collaboration with Pfizer for drug 707 is progressing well, enhancing overseas clinical trials [1][3]. - The first payment for drug 707 is expected to be confirmed within the year, which could significantly impact the company's valuation [3]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with a focus on approximately 30 projects in various stages of development, indicating strong innovation potential [4]. Summary by Sections Existing Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported stable revenue performance with total revenue of CNY 43.6 billion, a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year. The breakdown includes: - Teva revenue of CNY 23.7 billion (-4% YoY) with a market share of 63% - EPO revenue of CNY 4.5 billion (-12% YoY) - Mandi revenue of CNY 6.8 billion (+24% YoY) - Sanofi revenue of CNY 6.4 billion (+7.6% YoY) [2]. R&D and Innovation - The company has increased its R&D expense ratio to 12.6% (+1.8 percentage points YoY), with R&D expenses reaching CNY 5.5 billion (+15% YoY). The pipeline includes 30 projects across various therapeutic areas, showcasing significant market potential [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be CNY 10.42 billion, CNY 2.82 billion, and CNY 2.99 billion respectively, with a notable increase of 398% in 2025 [11]. - The company is valued at CNY 101.5 billion using the SOTP method, with existing business valued at CNY 22.7 billion and innovative drugs at CNY 49.6 billion [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-B" for the biopharmaceutical industry, indicating an expected price increase exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [10]. Core Insights - The PD-1(L1)/VEGF dual antibody is highlighted as a potential cornerstone drug for tumor immunotherapy, showing significant efficacy in various cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer [3][4]. - Multiple phase III clinical trials for PD-1(L1)/VEGF dual antibodies have achieved progression-free survival (PFS) endpoints, demonstrating clear benefits in first-line treatments for several tumor types [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the promising survival benefits of IBI363 in NSCLC, colorectal cancer, and melanoma, marking it as a breakthrough in clinical outcomes [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The biopharmaceutical industry has shown strong market performance over the past year, with significant advancements in innovative drug development [1]. Drug Evaluation - The report discusses the efficacy of various drugs, including: - Ivoxi in first-line PD-L1 positive NSCLC achieving an overall response rate (ORR) of 50.0% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 89.9% [4]. - Ivoxi combined with chemotherapy in squamous NSCLC showing an ORR of 71.4% and a DCR of 90.5% [4]. - PM8002 demonstrating an ORR of 78.6% in first-line triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) [6]. Clinical Trial Results - Ivoxi's combination therapies in various cancers have shown promising results: - In MSS colorectal cancer, the combination with FOLFOXIRI achieved an ORR of 81.8% [5]. - In head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, Ivoxi alone had an ORR of 30% [5]. - PM8002 in second-line small cell lung cancer (SCLC) showed a median overall survival (mOS) of 14.3 months [6]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the ongoing clinical trials and the development of PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies could lead to significant advancements in cancer treatment, positioning the industry for continued growth [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Recommended" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [3][33]. Core Insights - The "AI + Healthcare/Pharmaceutical" theme continues to gain traction, with short-term momentum expected to persist. The report highlights significant stock performance in the sector, with the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector (SW) rising by 2.71%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, and all sub-sectors showing positive growth, particularly in medical services [3][4]. - In the U.S., Tempus AI, a representative company in medical AI, saw a weekly increase of approximately 30% and over 160% year-to-date, driving the momentum of the medical AI concept. In China, companies like KingMed Diagnostics and Dian Diagnostics announced collaborations with DeepSeek, indicating a shift towards the commercialization of AI applications in healthcare [4][3]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in sub-sectors such as "AI + Medical Imaging," "AI + Diagnostic Services," and "AI + Drug Development," recommending key companies including United Imaging, Mindray, BGI Genomics, and WuXi AppTec [3][4]. Industry Performance Tracking - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector (SW) rose by 2.71% in the week of February 10-14, ranking 5th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. The CSI 300 index increased by 1.19% during the same period [5][6]. - All sub-sectors experienced growth, with medical services leading at +6.51%, followed by medical devices at +4.81%, and pharmaceutical commerce at +4.18% [5][6]. - Notable individual stock performances included Dian Diagnostics (+46.29%), Mian Health (+31.58%), and United Imaging (+27.33%) [6]. Industry Dynamics and Key Company Tracking - The National Healthcare Security Administration released a list of key tasks for 2025, focusing on efficient medical insurance processes and direct settlements for collected drugs and consumables [7]. - The retail terminal drug sales scale in China is projected to reach 574 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 3.7%, indicating a slowdown in growth due to demographic and economic factors [8]. - The report also notes significant collaborations, such as Baiyang Pharmaceutical's agreement with Roche for the exclusive marketing rights of a targeted cancer drug in mainland China [9][11]. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks various industry metrics, including the basic medical insurance fund income, which reached 28,507.29 billion yuan in 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 5% [15][16]. - The domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing industry achieved a total revenue of 25,298.50 billion yuan in 2024, with profit totals declining by 1.1% year-on-year [17].

三生制药（1530.HK） 开展双抗 ADC 联用研究，研发矩阵储备丰富 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6859.4 | 7815.9 | 8863.3 | 9988.9 | 11407.3 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 7.5 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 14.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1914.9 | 1549.2 | 2004.9 | 2212.3 | 2475.7 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 16.0 | -19.1 | 29.4 | 10.3 | 11.9 | | ROE（%） | 14.8 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.4 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | | P/E（倍） | 7.1 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | | P/B（倍） | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | ...