Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.38%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling by 2.45%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 3.21% [1][2]. Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector faced the largest declines, with notable drops in internet healthcare, AI healthcare, biopharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical outsourcing, and innovative drug concepts. Key stocks included: - 3SBio (01530.HK) down 9.44% - WuXi Biologics (01873.HK) down 6.09% - Kingsoft Cloud (01548.HK) down 6.05% - Innovent Biologics (02696.HK) down 5.62% - CanSino Biologics (09926.HK) down 5.39% - JD Health (06618.HK) down 8.6% - Ping An Good Doctor (01833.HK) down 4.28% - Alibaba Health (00241.HK) down 4.46% - Crystal International (02228.HK) down 4.82% - MicroPort Scientific (02252.HK) down 3.55% [3]. Impact of Economic Data - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. This has implications for the valuation and financing of innovative drugs, as the cooling expectations for rate cuts may impact investment sentiment [3]. Commodity and Energy Sector - The weakening expectations for a December rate cut have also affected the U.S. dollar index, which surpassed the 100-point mark, putting pressure on the commodities sector. Key declines included: - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) down 12.47% - Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) down 11.93% - Jinchuan Group (06680.HK) down 6.63% - Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) down 5.47% - China Aluminum (02600.HK) down 4.85% - Chalco International (02068.HK) down 4.74% [4]. Renewable Energy Sector - The power equipment, photovoltaic, and wind power sectors also performed poorly, with significant declines in: - Northeast Electric (00042.HK) down 7.02% - Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) down 7.51% - GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) down 5.83% - Yihua Energy (02402.HK) down 6.27% - Flat Glass Group (06865.HK) down 6.02% [4]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw notable declines, with: - SMIC (00981.HK) down 6.39% - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) down 6.09% - Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK) down 3.78% - Beike Micro (02149.HK) down 5.2% [5]. Technology Sector - Other technology-related sectors, including cloud computing and AI, also faced downward pressure, with significant drops in: - Tencent Music (01698.HK) down 5.98% - Baidu (09888.HK) down 5.79% - Alibaba Group (09988.HK) down 4.65% - NetEase (09999.HK) down 3.76% [5].

博彩股早盘普跌。澳门预期明年赌收2360亿澳门元，小摩称11月赌收增幅或放缓。金沙中国(01928)跌 5.33%；永利澳门(01128)跌5.12%；美高梅中国(02282)跌4%。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌2.07%，跌535点，报25300点；恒生科技指数跌3.11%。港股早盘成 交1505亿港元。 科技股全线走低。拖累恒科指数跌超3%，降息预期降温叠加AI泡沫担忧冲击美股。华虹半导体(01347) 跌超5%；中芯国际(00981)跌超5%；阿里巴巴-W(09988)跌4%。 创新药概念股跌幅居前。创新药BD已有降温迹象，降息预期降温或冲击估值及投融资。和铂医药- B(02142)跌7%；腾盛博药-B(02137)跌超6%。 三生制药(01530)跌超8%，拟分拆蔓迪国际于联交所主板独立上市。 光伏股继续下跌。光伏整体需求表现偏弱，机构称组件环节顺价尚不明显。信义光能(00968)跌6.07%； 新特能源(01799)跌6.5%。 受美联储12月降息预期弱化的影响，美元指数再上100点关口。有色股全线承压。洛阳钼业(03993)跌超 4%，江西铜业股份(00358)跌超4%。锂矿股回调，赣锋锂 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in innovative drug concept stocks, with significant drops in companies such as Heptares Therapeutics-B (down 9.15% to HKD 12.81), Tansheng Bo Pharmaceutical-B (down 7.56% to HKD 1.59), and others [1] - The report highlights a cooling trend in the business development (BD) of innovative drugs, with a total transaction amount of USD 60.8 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 129%. However, the growth rate has started to decline since the third quarter of this year [1] - The U.S. employment report for September shows economic resilience, leading Morgan Stanley to abandon its previous prediction of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. The new forecast suggests rate cuts in January, April, and June 2026, lowering the target policy rate to a range of 3%-3.25% [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may impact the valuations of the innovative drug sector and overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing [1]

Group 1 - The innovative drug concept stocks have experienced significant declines, with notable drops including: Heptares Therapeutics-B down 9.15% to HKD 12.81, Tiansheng Bo Pharmaceutical-B down 7.56% to HKD 1.59, Rongchang Biopharmaceutical down 5.83% to HKD 80, and Innovent Biologics down 6.18% to HKD 86.5 [1] - There are signs of cooling in the innovative drug business development (BD) sector, with data indicating that the total transaction amount in the first half of 2025 in China is projected to be USD 60.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 129%. In the first three quarters of this year, the transaction amount reached USD 93.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64% [1] - The decline in growth rates for domestic innovative drug BD transactions began in the third quarter, indicating a potential slowdown in the sector [1] Group 2 - The U.S. September employment report shows economic resilience, leading Morgan Stanley to abandon its previous prediction of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - Morgan Stanley now forecasts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in January, April, and June of 2026, bringing the target policy rate range down to 3%-3.25% [1] - Analysts suggest that the cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may impact the valuations of the innovative drug sector and overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing [1]

阿里巴巴：有消息称，阿里巴巴正准备对旗舰AI应用进行重大改版；据悉，阿里巴巴已秘密启动"千 问"项目，基于Qwen最强模型打造一款同名个人AI助手——千问APP，全面对标ChatGPT，加入全球AI 应用的顶级竞赛。 腾讯控股：2025年第三季度收入1928.69亿元，同比增长15%，环比增长5%；毛利1087.98亿元，同比增 22%，环比增长4%；毛利率由去年同期的53%提升至56%；本公司权益持有人应占盈利631.33亿元，同 比增长19%，环比增长13%，预期558.8亿元；非国际财务报告准则本公司权益持有人应占盈利为705.51 亿元，同比增长18%，环比增长12%，预期659.7亿元。 11月13日，南下资金今日净卖出港股35.21亿港元。 其中：净买入阿里巴巴-W 13.75亿、小米集团-W 7.79亿；净卖出盈富基金62.27亿、恒生中国企业22.89 亿、腾讯控股8.75亿、信达生物4.19亿、赣锋锂业2.61亿。 据统计，南下资金已连续12日净买入小米，共计89.1582亿港元。 北水关注个股 信达生物：中国银河证券称，医药板块估值经历较长时间调整，近期已呈现显著结构性修复趋势，下半 年创 ...

今日，创新药强延续反弹，科创创新药ETF（589720）涨近2%，前期回调期间，资金逢低买入，近10 日净流入额超2.7亿元。 中国银河证券称，医药板块估值经历较长时间调整，近期已呈现显著结构性修复趋势，下半年创新药 BD仍将持续，全球主要央行利率降息趋势有望推动创新药板块估值进一步提升。 科创创新药ETF国泰（589720）聚焦科创板创新药企业，跟踪汇聚30家代表性优质公司的上证科创板创 新药指数，以高成长biotech为主，产品20%涨跌幅限制使其更贴合板块波动。 每日经济新闻 风险提示：提及个股仅供参考，不作为股票推荐，不构成投资建议和承诺。指数/个股短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表未来表现。观点随市场环境变化，不构成投资建议。提及基金风险收益水平各不相同，请选 择与自身风险偏好匹配的产品，谨慎投资。如涉及基金收益分配原则详见基金法律文件。 ...

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a broad increase today, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index rising by 2.6%, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index increasing by 2.4%, the CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index up by 0.7%, the CSI Biotechnology Theme Index rising by 0.6%, and the CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index increasing by 0.2% [1] - According to Wind data, the pharmaceutical ETF (512010) has seen a net inflow of over 600 million yuan over the past seven trading days [1] - China Galaxy Securities noted that the pharmaceutical sector has undergone a significant structural repair trend after a prolonged valuation adjustment, with continued innovation in drug business development expected in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The indices mentioned focus on leading companies in the Hong Kong medical and health industry, comprising 50 stocks from medical devices, biopharmaceuticals, chemical drugs, and other pharmaceutical sectors [4] - The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index tracks leading A-share innovative drug companies, consisting of no more than 50 stocks involved in innovative drug research and development [7] - The CSI Biotechnology Theme Index focuses on leading A-share biotechnology companies, including no more than 50 stocks related to gene diagnosis, biopharmaceuticals, blood products, and other human biotechnology [12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets for innovative drugs opened high and continued to rise, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159567) saw an increase of approximately 3.02% as of 10:00 AM, with all constituent stocks performing well, including leading gains from companies like BeiGene, InnoCare Pharma, and CanSino Biologics [1] - Since November, the ETF has not experienced any net outflow of funds, accumulating a total of 726 million yuan in inflows during the month [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Institutions indicate that the pharmaceutical sector has undergone a significant structural repair trend after a prolonged period of valuation adjustment, with continued business development (BD) in innovative drugs expected in the second half of the year [1] - The trend of interest rate cuts by major global central banks is anticipated to further enhance the valuation of the innovative drug sector [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159567) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index, aiming to reflect the operational characteristics of listed companies in the innovative drug field within the Stock Connect scope [1] - Retail investors can also access the Hong Kong innovative drug ETF through linked funds (Class A: 023929, Class C: 023930) to capitalize on the upward opportunities in the sector [1]

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a collective rise in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index increasing by 1.5%, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index rising by 1.4%, the CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index up by 1.1%, the CSI Biotechnology Theme Index increasing by 1.0%, and the CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index rising by 0.9% [1] - China Galaxy Securities stated that the pharmaceutical sector has undergone a prolonged valuation adjustment, and a significant structural repair trend has emerged recently. The innovative drug business development (BD) is expected to continue in the second half of the year, and the global trend of interest rate cuts by major central banks is likely to further enhance the valuation of the innovative drug sector [1] Group 2 - The index focuses on leading companies in the Hong Kong medical and health industry, consisting of 50 stocks from the medical device, biopharmaceutical, chemical drug, and other pharmaceutical sectors [4] - The innovative drug ETF managed by E Fund tracks the CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index, which focuses on leading innovative drug companies in the A-share market, comprising no more than 50 stocks involved in innovative drug research and development [6] - The biotechnology ETF tracks the CSI Biotechnology Technology Index, which focuses on leading biotechnology companies in the A-share market, consisting of no more than 50 stocks involved in gene diagnosis, biopharmaceuticals, blood products, and other human biotechnology [11] - The pharmaceutical ETF tracks the CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index, which focuses on leading companies in the A-share pharmaceutical and health industry, covering various segments of the future health industry, including chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and medical devices [13]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 小豪只投创新药 来源：雪球 6 月 12 日我在《如何押注创新药的BD》一文中，详细阐述了将「N」业务视为或有 upside 的完整逻辑。然而其后三个月，"赌 BD"一路飞升， "赌 BD"逐渐从合理化变成妖魔化 ：从猜测最有机会的交易，到子虚莫有、几乎不可能发生的交易，都被市场提前计价；"可比交易定价法"逐渐异 化为"预告式定价法"、"MNC 名片定价法"、"晒聊天记录截图定价法"。 当预期明显被透支时，我在 9 月 6 日《后BD时代》中明确警告， 我们应把焦点移回 BD 落地后公司能够沉淀的长期价值，而不只是追逐短期的 交易刺激。 事实也印证了这一点：自 9 月初开始，以"赌 BD"为主线的整个创新药行情，普遍来到阶段性高位。"赌 BD"的公司率先大幅回撤，甚 至波及到其他"已 BD "的公司。 这类预期若长时间未能通过实际BD落实验证，就容易滋生估值泡沫。一旦BD进度不及预期，相关公司的股价可能面临剧烈回调。 ——后BD时代 我们需要接纳泡沫的形成，也要以平常心对待泡沫的 ...