Core Viewpoint - The import wood pulp market is expected to experience a strong performance before the Spring Festival in early 2026, driven by cost pressures and limited supply growth, but will likely face downward pressure post-holiday due to weak demand and low profitability in the paper industry [3][10]. Group 1: Price Trends - In Q4 2025, the import wood pulp market showed a general upward trend, particularly for broadleaf pulp, driven by cost pressures from external markets [3][15]. - As of December 31, 2025, the average price for imported broadleaf pulp was 4627.63 CNY/ton, up 385.26 CNY/ton (9.08%) from September 30, 2025 [4][15]. - The average price for imported needle pulp was 5577.32 CNY/ton, up 37.86 CNY/ton (0.68%), while other pulp types showed smaller increases [4][15]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply growth rate for wood pulp is expected to slow down in Q1 2026, with domestic production increasing by only 1.26% and imports projected to decline by 6.34% [7][19]. - The overall wood pulp supply is expected to grow by 3.41% in Q1 2026, but this growth is significantly reduced compared to previous periods [19]. Group 3: Demand Factors - The total demand for wood pulp is anticipated to decrease by approximately 10.36% in Q1 2026, primarily due to new production capacities coming online late in the quarter and maintenance shutdowns during the Spring Festival [8][20]. - The profitability of the paper industry is mixed, with cultural paper companies adopting discount strategies, while white card and life paper sectors may see slight improvements in margins due to seasonal demand [20]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market for imported wood pulp is expected to show a pattern of rising prices followed by a decline, influenced by seasonal factors and cost increases from external markets [10][21]. - Specific price forecasts for Q1 2026 include needle pulp at 5582.00 CNY/ton, broadleaf pulp at 4643.33 CNY/ton, and chemical pulp at 3855.33 CNY/ton, with varying adjustments from Q4 2025 [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] Core Views of the Report - The cotton market shows a short - term supply - demand imbalance with pressure on ICE cotton in the short - term, while long - term cotton prices are expected to be bullish. The sugar market is in a surplus situation in the short - to - medium term, but long - term prices are not overly pessimistic. The pulp market is affected by supply disruptions and may see a short - term bullish trend, but the long - term depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [2][5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,855 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (+1.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,487 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,711 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton. As of December 25, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 1.519 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, reaching 57.20% of the annual expected exports, and shipped 674,000 tons with a shipment rate of 44.39%. China had cumulatively signed 68,000 tons of US cotton and shipped 26,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's December adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data was small, with both production and demand decreasing in the 25/26 season and a slight increase in ending inventory. US cotton production increased slightly, with greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE cotton is under pressure, and the long - term downward space is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season. As the sales progress accelerated, the hedging resistance on the disk weakened. However, downstream demand showed a marginal weakening trend [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral to bullish. In the whole year, domestic cotton consumption is expected to increase due to the expansion of spinning capacity. With high production and consumption and low imports, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. Considering the possible reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year, long - term cotton prices are expected to be bullish, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5259 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5200 yuan/ton, unchanged. Bihar in India plans to expand sugarcane planting area and restart and build sugar mills [4] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. In the 25/26 season, the global sugar market is in a surplus. In the short - term, the further decline space of raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long - term, there are uncertainties in weather and sugar - making ratio, and some institutions predict a decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season and a reduction in Thailand's planting area. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the supply pressure is still there, but the import of syrup and premix may decrease next year [5][6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The domestic fundamental driving force is still downward. Although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of a new low, but the overall decline space is limited. In the short - to - medium term, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5612 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton (+1.48%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market showed a strengthening trend, with some prices of imported softwood and hardwood pulp rising by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, while the prices of imported natural and chemimechanical pulp remained stable [8] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was strong. On the supply side, there were continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance. On the demand side, the European port wood pulp inventory continued to decline in November, indicating improving demand. Domestically, although there was a large - scale production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the port inventory was still at a high level. However, the port inventory has been declining recently, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity next year may support pulp prices [9] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Overseas supply disruptions continue, and there is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. The domestic demand may show a moderate recovery, and the short - term trend is expected to be bullish, but the upward height depends on the improvement of demand and inventory digestion [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 26, the average market price for 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper is 4731 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 3 CNY/ton or 0.06% month-on-month [1][2] - The average market price for AA-grade corrugated paper (120g) is 3164 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.35% and a year-on-year increase of 16.71% [1][4] Group 2: Cultural Paper Insights - Demand for cultural paper remains weak, with cautious inventory levels among distributors leading to limited new orders despite some paper companies announcing price increases [2] - The upstream raw material market for wood pulp has shown a weakening transmission effect, with prices fluctuating throughout the month [2] Group 3: White Cardboard Analysis - The average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard is 4194 CNY/ton, which has increased by 3.30% compared to October, with a larger increase of 0.85 percentage points [3] - Cost pressures remain significant, prompting paper manufacturers to continue raising prices, which supports upward price movement in the market [3] Group 4: Corrugated Paper Dynamics - The price of AA-grade corrugated paper has been supported by low inventory levels at upstream paper mills and a clear willingness to raise prices [4] - Despite general order conditions being average for downstream packaging factories, the continuous rise in raw paper prices has maintained a reasonable level of purchasing activity [4] Group 5: Wood Pulp Market Trends - The imported wood pulp market shows a mixed trend, with overall trading driven by essential demand [5] - The price of imported hardwood pulp continues to rise due to strong external market conditions, while the price of imported chemical pulp is under pressure due to demand constraints [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: New - year global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, with increased supply pressure and demand - side stress. Domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing may limit price decline [2] - Sugar: Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, while ethanol provides support. In China, typhoons may affect production, and trade frictions increase volatility [5][6][7] - Pulp: Global supply pressure exists, and domestic demand is weak. Tariff wars and insufficient fundamental improvement keep prices at the bottom [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.38%) [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 14,510 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; national average was 14,664 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In August, Thailand imported about 9,057 tons of cotton, down 43.5% month - on - month and up 1.2% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US trade war escalated, and the US government shutdown affected data release [2] - Supply - demand: Global supply - demand is loose, and domestic de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing increases supply [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish due to trade war and production increase expectations [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,408 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Production: In Brazil, 40.855 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in late September, up 5.18% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian supply is strong, and ethanol supports prices [5] - Domestic: Supply is sufficient, and typhoons may affect production [6] Strategy - Neutral due to typhoon impact and trade frictions [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] - Spot: Shandong Chilean silver star coniferous pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8] - Market: Imported pulp prices had different trends, with some rising and some stagnant [8] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' plans have limited impact, and domestic supply is still loose [9] - Demand: Global and domestic demand is weak, and paper mills' procurement is cautious [9] Strategy - Neutral due to tariff wars and weak fundamentals [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp futures market is in a weak and volatile state. The pulp market continues the dynamic game, with low price operation and weak price - rising momentum. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures shifted positions. The SP2509 contract was weakly operated, with a weekly decline of 1.32% [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of June 5, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5989 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from last week; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4158 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from last week; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5312 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from last week; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3838 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from last week [12] - **April Pulp Import Volume**: In April 2025, China imported 289.3 tons of pulp, with an import amount of 1825.2 million US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and amount from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. In April, the import volume of softwood pulp was 75.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.57%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 119.93 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.70% [16] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of June 5, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 213.29 tons, a 1.6% decrease from last week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.60 percentage points [19][35] - **April European Inventory**: In April 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 12.81% month - on - month and increased by 13.61% compared with April 2024. The inventory in UK and German ports increased by 38.60% and 15.72% respectively month - on - month, while the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Italy and Spain decreased by 18.88%, 20.57% and 2.67% respectively month - on - month [22] - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. The operating rates of downstream pulp types are diverging. The operating load rates of double - copper paper and white cardboard increased month - on - month, while those of double - offset paper and household paper decreased month - on - month. Paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the pulp market sales rhythm is slow [28] 3. Future Outlook - The pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports decreased, and the decline rate narrowed. The operating rates of downstream pulp types are diverging. Paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the pulp market continues the dynamic game. The domestic hardwood pulp market price is running at a low level, and the spot price of imported wood pulp in some regions is adjusted according to the market, with weak price - rising momentum. The pulp market continues the pattern of rebound and decline, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [35]