Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of double - offset paper and coated paper remains unbalanced with high inventory and low demand, and the paper price trend is weak. The double - offset paper industry may see a limited increase in supply, while the demand is mainly rigid. The cost support is limited as pulp prices are stable. For trading, a short - selling strategy can be considered for the 01 contract, and paper mills can focus on risk - free arbitrage opportunities [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies A. Comprehensive Analysis - Double - offset paper: The production is 20.5 tons, a 5.1% increase from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 55.7%, up 2.8%. The industry's supply has increased due to the resumption of some production and the stabilization of new units. However, the demand is weak as publishing tender orders are limited. The average spot tax - included price of softwood pulp is 5694 yuan/ton, down 0.3% from the previous period, and that of hardwood pulp is 4189 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, short sell at high prices for the 01 contract as the supply exceeds demand. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines mainly, and paper mill industrial customers can pay attention to risk - free arbitrage opportunities. For options, stay on the sidelines [8] II. Core Logic Analysis - Supply: Previously shut - down enterprises are gradually resuming production, but the industry's profitability is under pressure, so the increase in double - offset paper supply is expected to be limited. - Demand: Distributors are cautious in stockpiling, and downstream printing factories' orders are average, with overall demand being rigid. - Cost: The prices of softwood and hardwood pulp are stable, providing limited cost support [7] III. Weekly Data Tracking A. Double - Offset Paper - Supply: The production is 20.5 tons, a 5.1% increase from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 55.7%, up 2.8%. Some shut - down units have resumed production, and large factories are stably producing. However, due to low profitability, some paper machines are being converted or cross - scheduled. The gross profit margin is declining as paper prices fall and pulp prices fluctuate slightly [16] - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory is 121.0 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous period. Factory production has increased slightly, while downstream consumption is weak. The inventory is at a multi - year high [20] - Price: The average enterprise price of 70g double - offset paper is 4742.9 yuan/ton, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period [37] B. Coated Paper - Supply: The production is 7.80 tons, a 0.51% decrease from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.6%, down 0.3%. The shut - down factories have not fully resumed production, and the overall capacity utilization rate is still low. The gross profit margin remains low as pulp prices fluctuate slightly [23] - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory is 33.2 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous period. The industry's supply has not changed much, and downstream consumption is weak. The inventory has rebounded slightly [27] - Price: The average enterprise price of 157g coated paper is 5175.0 yuan/ton, a 1.6% decrease from the previous period [37] C. Pulp Prices - Softwood pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 5694 yuan/ton, down 0.3% from the previous period - Hardwood pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 4189 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period - Natural pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 4900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period - Chemimechanical pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [42]

库存高位，成本驱动乏力，纸价偏稳 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本情况①价格：70g双胶纸企业含税均价为5128.6元/吨，环比持平。② 供应端分化：停产企业暂未恢复正常生产，随着新增装置生产 趋稳，行业供应有增量趋势。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期③成本：部分阔叶浆贸易商捂盘惜售，流通货 源阶段性收紧，助推价格反弹。 【逻辑】 双胶纸：供应：行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，市场供应趋稳。需求：秋季出版订单释放进度缓慢，社会面订单仍显不振，整 体终端消费跟进不及预期，下游印厂开工水平不高，用户原纸库存消耗缓慢，无明显大量囤库意愿。成本：国内港口库存仍处于高位，叠 加进口浆现货市场货源充裕，市场整体趋稳。 【策略】 胶版印刷纸预期下周整体偏稳运行。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GA ...