箱瓦纸厂节后纷纷提价，如何看后续纸价走势？ 20260226 摘要 2026 年初瓦楞纸、箱板纸市场呈现与往年不同的特点，1 月龙头企业大 幅降价去库存，累计降幅达 150-350 元/吨，为节后提价奠定基础。纸 厂主动降价旨在转移库存压力，为后续销售政策和利润表现创造有利条 件。 春节后复工虽顺畅，但行业复工率低于 2025 年，部分地区受环保影响 停机，大型纸厂轮停，供应压力减小。九龙、山鹰等大厂提前至 2 月 25 日上调价格 50 元/吨，中小纸厂跟随，双一级瓦楞纸和箱板纸均价分别 升至 2,733 元/吨和 3,545 元/吨。 需求端出现分化，二级厂消化节前订单为主，新订单不足；终端快消品 和快递行业恢复慢，库存多，补库意愿不强，将影响 3 月后走势。下游 心态谨慎，以消化自身库存为主，对涨价接受度理性。 2026 年市场驱动由需求转向供给优化与预期博弈。纸厂库存偏低，社 会库存处于中位水平，上下游具备补库弹性。短期看涨预期，转折点或 在 3 月下旬，4-5 月淡季供应增加，价格大概率震荡下行。 Q&A 春节前到春节后，瓦楞纸、箱板纸价格走势发生了哪些变化，主要驱动因素是 什么？ 春节后开工以来， ...

Group 1 - The corrugated and boxboard paper market continues to experience a downward price trend, with large paper mills maintaining price protection policies while smaller mills are offering discounts due to inventory pressure [1] - Although there has been an increase in orders from downstream packaging factories ahead of the Spring Festival, there remains a cautious sentiment, leading to a focus on demand-based procurement [1] - The prices of major raw materials, particularly waste paper, have stabilized, providing some support to paper prices from the cost side [1] Group 2 - Despite the significant inventory pressure faced by upstream paper mills, the combination of increased orders before the holiday and cost support is expected to narrow the price decline in the corrugated and boxboard paper market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the market for wood pulp is experiencing price increases in the external market, while domestic prices are showing signs of slowing growth. The report anticipates a continued rise in pulp prices by January 2026, with gradual price transmission for white paper and ongoing increases for black paper [1][6]. Group 2 - Cultural paper prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with the average market price for 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper at 4730 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.04% month-on-month. Factors influencing this include cautious purchasing behavior from distributors and a lack of effective price transmission from wood pulp to paper [2]. - White cardboard prices are rising, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4237 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% month-on-month. This is attributed to low price levels and cost pressures, with some traders raising prices by 50-100 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of corrugated paper is under pressure, with the average market price for AA-grade 120g corrugated paper at 3129 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.29%. Contributing factors include a mixed sentiment among suppliers and limited improvement in demand from the packaging sector [4]. - The waste paper market is experiencing an overall price decline, with the average price for waste yellow board paper at 1767 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.18% month-on-month. This is due to increased supply and a bearish outlook from downstream paper mills [5]. - The wood pulp market is characterized by a mixed price trend, with external prices for broadleaf pulp continuing to rise while domestic prices are stabilizing. The average price for wood pulp is influenced by fluctuations in futures contracts and varying supply-demand dynamics [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 26, the average market price for 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper is 4731 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 3 CNY/ton or 0.06% month-on-month [1][2] - The average market price for AA-grade corrugated paper (120g) is 3164 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.35% and a year-on-year increase of 16.71% [1][4] Group 2: Cultural Paper Insights - Demand for cultural paper remains weak, with cautious inventory levels among distributors leading to limited new orders despite some paper companies announcing price increases [2] - The upstream raw material market for wood pulp has shown a weakening transmission effect, with prices fluctuating throughout the month [2] Group 3: White Cardboard Analysis - The average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard is 4194 CNY/ton, which has increased by 3.30% compared to October, with a larger increase of 0.85 percentage points [3] - Cost pressures remain significant, prompting paper manufacturers to continue raising prices, which supports upward price movement in the market [3] Group 4: Corrugated Paper Dynamics - The price of AA-grade corrugated paper has been supported by low inventory levels at upstream paper mills and a clear willingness to raise prices [4] - Despite general order conditions being average for downstream packaging factories, the continuous rise in raw paper prices has maintained a reasonable level of purchasing activity [4] Group 5: Wood Pulp Market Trends - The imported wood pulp market shows a mixed trend, with overall trading driven by essential demand [5] - The price of imported hardwood pulp continues to rise due to strong external market conditions, while the price of imported chemical pulp is under pressure due to demand constraints [5]

Core Viewpoint - The paper price increase has prompted various sectors of the industry chain to raise product prices and actively seek long-term supply-demand balance solutions to cope with rising raw material costs [1] Group 1: Industry Response to Price Increases - A packaging paper company in Langfang, Hebei, has two newly launched production lines operating at full capacity, which have improved efficiency and helped mitigate some cost pressures from last year’s equipment upgrades [3] - Packaging paper manufacturers are reducing costs through efficiency improvements, while upstream paper companies are expanding raw material sourcing channels to stabilize the supply and prices of waste paper [5] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Currently, imported pulp constitutes a low proportion of production materials in China, leading to tight domestic waste paper supply, which is expected to persist for some time [7] - Analysts indicate that paper manufacturers are maintaining low raw material inventories, which supports strong demand for waste paper [9] Group 3: Future Market Trends - Although paper prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, the domestic corrugated box and paperboard industry is entering a concentrated period of new capacity investment, which may lead to a future decline in paper prices as supply-demand relationships adjust [11] - According to statistics, from January to September this year, over 3.5 million tons of new capacity for corrugated box and paperboard have been added, and increased operating rates among small and medium-sized paper lines are likely to further boost overall market supply, potentially stabilizing paper prices [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of double - offset paper and coated paper remains unbalanced with high inventory and low demand, and the paper price trend is weak. The double - offset paper industry may see a limited increase in supply, while the demand is mainly rigid. The cost support is limited as pulp prices are stable. For trading, a short - selling strategy can be considered for the 01 contract, and paper mills can focus on risk - free arbitrage opportunities [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies A. Comprehensive Analysis - Double - offset paper: The production is 20.5 tons, a 5.1% increase from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 55.7%, up 2.8%. The industry's supply has increased due to the resumption of some production and the stabilization of new units. However, the demand is weak as publishing tender orders are limited. The average spot tax - included price of softwood pulp is 5694 yuan/ton, down 0.3% from the previous period, and that of hardwood pulp is 4189 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, short sell at high prices for the 01 contract as the supply exceeds demand. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines mainly, and paper mill industrial customers can pay attention to risk - free arbitrage opportunities. For options, stay on the sidelines [8] II. Core Logic Analysis - Supply: Previously shut - down enterprises are gradually resuming production, but the industry's profitability is under pressure, so the increase in double - offset paper supply is expected to be limited. - Demand: Distributors are cautious in stockpiling, and downstream printing factories' orders are average, with overall demand being rigid. - Cost: The prices of softwood and hardwood pulp are stable, providing limited cost support [7] III. Weekly Data Tracking A. Double - Offset Paper - Supply: The production is 20.5 tons, a 5.1% increase from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 55.7%, up 2.8%. Some shut - down units have resumed production, and large factories are stably producing. However, due to low profitability, some paper machines are being converted or cross - scheduled. The gross profit margin is declining as paper prices fall and pulp prices fluctuate slightly [16] - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory is 121.0 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous period. Factory production has increased slightly, while downstream consumption is weak. The inventory is at a multi - year high [20] - Price: The average enterprise price of 70g double - offset paper is 4742.9 yuan/ton, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period [37] B. Coated Paper - Supply: The production is 7.80 tons, a 0.51% decrease from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.6%, down 0.3%. The shut - down factories have not fully resumed production, and the overall capacity utilization rate is still low. The gross profit margin remains low as pulp prices fluctuate slightly [23] - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory is 33.2 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous period. The industry's supply has not changed much, and downstream consumption is weak. The inventory has rebounded slightly [27] - Price: The average enterprise price of 157g coated paper is 5175.0 yuan/ton, a 1.6% decrease from the previous period [37] C. Pulp Prices - Softwood pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 5694 yuan/ton, down 0.3% from the previous period - Hardwood pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 4189 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period - Natural pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 4900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period - Chemimechanical pulp: The average spot tax - included price is 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [42]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price of offset printing paper is expected to remain stable next week [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The 70g offset paper's enterprise含税均价 is 5128.6 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period. The supply side shows differentiation, with some停产 enterprises not resuming normal production, and the industry supply has an increasing trend as new installations stabilize. The demand side is weak, with limited release of publishing tender orders and sporadic low prices suppressing market expectations. Some broadleaf pulp traders are holding back on sales, leading to a temporary tightening of available supply and boosting price rebounds [5] - The offset printing paper is expected to run stably overall next week [7] Core Logic Analysis - For offset paper, the industry's profit level is still low, there is a situation of factory production conversion, and the market supply is stabilizing. The release of autumn publishing orders is slow, social orders are still sluggish, overall terminal consumption is falling short of expectations, the operating level of downstream printing factories is not high, the consumption of users' base paper inventory is slow, and there is no obvious intention to stock up in large quantities. The domestic port inventory is still at a high level, and the spot market of imported pulp has abundant supply, so the market as a whole is stabilizing [6] Weekly Data Tracking Supply - The capacity utilization rate of offset paper this period is 56.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous period; the output is 20.0 tons, a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous period. The main reasons are that the停产 enterprises have not resumed offset paper production, the production stability of new installations has improved, and the industry's profit level is still low, leading to an increase in the number of factories converting production or shutting down. The pulp raw material price has dropped from a high level, and the paper price has also dropped accordingly, with the overall gross profit margin weakening [13] - The capacity utilization rate of coated paper this period is 56.9%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous period; the output is 7.7 tons, an increase of 4.1% compared to the previous period. The main reasons are that the停产 factories have not fully resumed production, the industry's profit level is relatively stable, other factories are mostly operating normally as planned, and there are no temporarily shut-down production lines. The pulp price has rebounded slightly, and the gross profit margin of coated paper has declined [19] Inventory - The inventory of offset paper production enterprises this period is 115.4 tons, an increase of 1.3% compared to the previous period. During the week, there was little change in factory production, terminal consumption was weak, the operating level of downstream printing factories was low, users had no intention to replenish inventory in large quantities, and most traders followed a policy of buying and selling as they went. The overall on-site inventory continued to increase slightly and is at a high level in recent years [16] - The inventory of coated paper production enterprises this period is 33.6 tons, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous period. The industry's supply has increased slightly this week, but terminal consumption is not strong, users mainly make small, on-demand purchases, and most traders follow a policy of buying and selling as they go. The industry's production and sales are in a weak balance, and the average inventory of paper enterprises has a slight increasing trend compared to last week. Currently, the on-site inventory of coated paper continues to rebound [22] Price - The domestic offset paper market is in a stalemate between supply and demand this period, with dull trading. The enterprise含税均价 of 70g offset paper is 5128.6 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period. The domestic coated paper market is in a game between supply and demand, with a dull trading atmosphere. The enterprise含税均价 of 157g coated paper is 5875.0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period [31] - The spot含税均价 of softwood pulp is 6250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous period; the spot含税均价 of broadleaf pulp is 4157 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7% compared to the previous period; the spot含税均价 of unbleached pulp is 5321 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous period; the spot含税均价 of chemimechanical pulp is 3900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period [36]