Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's escalating AI chip export controls are reshaping the global semiconductor industry landscape, impacting companies like NVIDIA and creating opportunities for domestic Chinese chip manufacturers [1][2]. U.S. Export Controls and NVIDIA's Response - The U.S. has intensified its export controls on AI chips to China since 2022, affecting NVIDIA's A100/H100 chips and prompting the company to develop modified versions for the Chinese market [4][5]. - Despite these adaptations, NVIDIA faces significant challenges with its H20 chip, which has been restricted from export, potentially impacting its revenue from the Chinese market [5][6]. - In the fiscal year ending April 2024, NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $17.108 billion from China, a 66% year-over-year increase, highlighting the importance of this market despite ongoing restrictions [6]. Financial Impact on NVIDIA - NVIDIA has recorded substantial financial losses due to the H20 chip export restrictions, with a write-down of approximately $5.5 billion and an expected revenue drop of $8 billion in the second quarter [7][8]. - The company's market share in China has decreased from 95% four years ago to 50% currently, indicating a significant loss of competitive position [7][8]. Rise of Domestic AI Chip Manufacturers - The U.S. technology blockade is creating a "boomerang effect," accelerating the restructuring of China's AI computing industry and providing opportunities for domestic chip companies [10]. - Companies like Cambricon (寒武纪) have seen dramatic revenue growth, with a 4230.22% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a strong market response to domestic chip development [10][13]. - Another domestic player, Haiguang Information (海光信息), reported a 50.76% increase in revenue, reflecting the growing demand for local AI chips [13]. Market Demand and Future Projections - Domestic cloud service providers are increasing investments in AI infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in the next three years [14]. - The proportion of AI servers in China sourced from domestic suppliers is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating a self-sufficiency rate of 82% by 2027 [16]. Industry Consolidation and Collaboration - The industry is witnessing consolidation, exemplified by the strategic merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang, which is expected to enhance technological collaboration and market competitiveness [19][20]. - This merger signifies a shift from individual company efforts to a more collaborative approach in the AI chip sector, aiming to strengthen the entire supply chain [20][21]. Policy Support and Future Outlook - Continuous government support for AI chip development is boosting confidence across the industry, fostering innovation and market expansion [21][22]. - With ongoing policy backing and technological advancements, China's position in the global AI market is anticipated to strengthen further [22].

21世纪经济报道记者雷晨 北京报道 美国政府层层加码的AI芯片出口管制，正在改写全球半导体产业格局。 英伟达为规避制裁曾两度"自降"芯片性能，却仍面临H20被禁的考验，中国市场营收前景蒙上阴影。 观察者网显示，当地时间6月12日，黄仁勋在接受媒体采访时称，由于美国对中国市场的芯片销售实施 了严格的贸易限制，英伟达将不再把中国市场纳入其收入和利润预测中。 而国产芯片厂商借势崛起，寒武纪（688256.SH）今年一季度单季营收激增42倍，海光信息(688041.SH) 与中科曙光(603019.SH)启动千亿级重组，本土化替代率逐步攀升。 美国技术封锁的"回旋镖效应"，正在促使中国AI算力产业链正加速重构。 英伟达"切肤之痛" 美国政府对华AI芯片管制政策在过去几年不断升级。 自2022年美国商务部下属工业和安全局（BIS）发布《先进计算芯片和半导体制造设备出口管制规则》 起，英伟达明星产品A100/H100芯片因"触线"，对华出口受阻。 为了挽救在中国市场的份额，英伟达不得已走上了"自我阉割"之路，推出了专为中国市场定制的 A800/H800芯片，得以稳住局面。 然而，美国政府的制裁脚步并未停歇。2023年10 ...

当然，这对英伟达来说最终不是什么大事。该公司后来于2022年11月 发布了 A800/H800芯片，作 为一种合规的变通方案，以重新夺回大中华市场。这4亿美元的潜在收入损失从未完全实现。此外， 2023年10月，英伟达开始开发三款新芯片（H20、L20和L2），旨在符合出口管制规定。这些芯片 于2024年初发布，到当年第一季度末， 有报道 称，与华为的Ascend 910B相比，H20芯片的售价 便宜了10%以上。 自4月6日 以来，英伟达（NASDAQ:NVDA） 的股价仍然上涨了 34%，尽管该公司 在 4 月 15 日提 交了 8-K 报告 ，此前该公司宣布需要申请许可证才能将 其 H20 GPU 出口到中国。 8K发布后7%的抛售并没有让分析师感到丝毫担忧。从估值角度来看，分析师仍然认为英伟达相对 于其自身历史表现以及与其最接近的同行（尤其是AMD）而言被低估了。从价格走势来看，这张图 表看起来尤其有吸引力。以下是一个非常简单的分析（怀疑论者可能会觉得好笑）。 总体而言，分析师重申强力买入评级，并预计该公司本月底的业绩将超过第一季度，尽管H20 GPU 对华出口存在一些波折。年底前150美元的目标价是 ...

编译 | 美股研究社 英伟达公司( NASDAQ: NVDA )的GPU 正在彻底改变世界。这给这家半导体巨头带来了巨额利润，但也滋生了生存风险。 目前，英伟达面临三大生存风险。 我们先来看看英伟达2025 财年（截至 2025 年 1 月 26 日）的财务业绩和 2026 财年展望。2025 财年，英伟达营收同比增长 114%，达到 1305 亿美元。这得益于全球数据中心对其用于 AI 训练和推理的 GPU 的需求。 | Fiscal | Data Center | Data Center | Gaming | Pro Viz | Automotive | OEM & Other | Total Revenue | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Year | Revenue ($M) | Growth (%) | Revenue (SM) | Revenue ($M) | Revenue (SM) | | | | | | | | | | (SM) | (SM) | | 2025 | 115,186 | 142.40% | 11,350 ...