证券研究报告·公司点评报告·医药商业 九州通（600998） 2025 年中报点评：现金流改善，"三新两化" 战略持续推进 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 150,140 | 151,810 | 165,919 | 177,268 | 189,609 | | 同比（%） | 6.92 | 1.11 | 9.29 | 6.84 | 6.96 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,174 | 2,507 | 2,694 | 2,818 | 3,108 | | 同比（%） | 4.27 | 15.33 | 7.44 | 4.59 | 10.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.62 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 11.90 | 10.32 | 9.60 | 9.18 | 8.32 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Sum ...

Economic Insights - Structural highlights in consumption: The "trade-in" policy stimulated retail sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment, with year-on-year growth ranging from 19.9% to 38.8%. Jewelry sales increased by 25.3% due to fluctuations in gold prices, indicating a short-term focus on policy-benefiting consumption sectors [3] - Investment growth driven by equipment upgrades: From January to April, equipment purchase investment rose by 18.2% year-on-year, contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth, with manufacturing investment leading at 8.8% [3] - Export window period clarified: In April, exports increased by 9.3% year-on-year, benefiting from the "temporary suspension" of US-China tariffs and transshipment trade, with a focus on capitalizing on export benefits before June [3] - Urban renewal presents trillion-level opportunities: Policies have outlined six major guarantees for urban renewal, with expected annual investments exceeding one trillion, prioritizing smart infrastructure, green buildings, and underground pipeline networks [3] - Policy intensification focuses on "four stabilizations": Extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments will accelerate, with a focus on supporting technology research and development, consumption expansion, and foreign trade upgrades [3] Investment Trends - Foreign capital continues to heavily invest in A-shares: Foreign investors hold a stable market value of A-shares at 3 trillion yuan, with policies clarifying directions for "institutional opening" [3] - Accelerated inflow of medium to long-term funds: Social security, insurance, and annuities have net bought over 200 billion yuan in A-shares this year, reinforcing market expectations of "steady growth" [3] - Policy catalyzes mergers and acquisitions: The new "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures" have been implemented, alongside cash dividends and buybacks, prioritizing central enterprise integration and cross-industry mergers and acquisitions [3] Industry Developments - Smart manufacturing equipment industry scale surpasses 3.2 trillion yuan: There is an urgent demand for technological upgrades, focusing on breakthroughs in robotics, CNC machine tools, and automated production lines [5] - Industrial mother machines require breakthroughs in thermal error compensation technology: AI real-time monitoring and error control technologies will be key investment directions for improving processing accuracy [5] - Domestic industrial robots enter the "software-defined performance" stage: Software algorithms and common technologies are core breakthroughs for domestic replacements, with a focus on companies with foundational algorithm development capabilities [5] - Automation rate in new energy vehicle assembly is only 25%-30%: Embodied intelligent technologies will drive a market worth hundreds of billions, focusing on smart equipment and adaptive production solutions [5] - The demand for intelligent equipment in shipbuilding is surging: Intelligent welding and coating equipment can shorten manufacturing cycles by over 30%, with a focus on suppliers of intelligent devices in the shipbuilding industry [5] Entertainment Industry in Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia's entertainment industry aims for a clear target by 2030: Expected to contribute 4.2% to GDP and create 450,000 jobs, becoming a core pillar of economic diversification [9] - Young consumer power drives local entertainment explosion: 33% of consumers plan to increase outdoor entertainment spending, focusing on high-frequency, diverse experiential consumption scenarios [9] - "Entertainment + real estate" integration model significantly enhances value: Projects combining entertainment facilities with residential functions increase land value and long-term leasing demand [9] - Foreign capital layout window opens: Saudi entertainment is one of the few "greenfield" markets among G20 countries, with policy support and localized cooperation providing low-competition, high-growth opportunities [9] - Immersive experiences become a new growth point: Extending traditional entertainment boundaries, focusing on differentiated products like esports venues and adventure tourism [9]