证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 23 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 跨年行情的复盘与展望 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【策略研究】跨年行情的复盘与展望——20251222 【金融工程】转债估值持续位于历史高位——十二月可转债量化月报— —20251222 【固定收益】食品价格继续回升——基本面高频数据跟踪——20251222 【区块链】存款代币：平衡"天才法案"与银行利益——20251222 ◼ 研究视点 【基础化工】CPO 重塑光网络格局，材料从Ⅲ-Ⅴ族向硅基平台过渡—— 20251222 【环保】政策+技术双轮驱动，固废循环添新机——20251222 【煤炭】澳大利亚煤电需扩能两倍以支撑 2050 年电力需求增长—— 20251222 【非银金融】行业周报| 险企资产负债管理系统性升级 ——20251222 【美容护理】青松股份（300132.SZ）-公司业绩回暖，盈利能力提升— —20251222 【社会服务】粉笔（02469.HK）-与华图战略合作，AI 产品矩阵持续丰富 ——20251222 作者 | 分析师 | 张津铭 | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 22 年 月 日 粉笔（02469.HK） 与华图战略合作，AI 产品矩阵持续丰富 具体事件：公司与华图订立战略合作协议。12 月 12 日，公司与华图订立 战略合作协议，双方旨在共同探索招录类考试培训业务中下列领域的合 作，（（1）投资合作：双方将探索并寻求在股权投资的合作，包括但不限于 战略投资及成立合资企业。（（2）公司治理：双方可相互推荐董事进入对方 实体机构，建立常态化沟通机制，借鉴彼此先进管理经验，发挥各自优势。 （3）技术开发：双方将共同开发招录类考试培训行业的 AI 应用方案，透 过整合双方各自在 AI 技术开发领域的优势，公司与华图将就 AI 融入课程 与产品进行交流分享，共同探索开发 AI 主导课程的发展前景，并促进双 方核心研发团队间的专业经验交流。（（4）分销渠道合作：双方将整合各自 的渠道，发挥线上与线下分销渠道的优势，以提升双方营运效率。（（5）行 业自律：旨在透过优质服务与教学标准，树立行业标杆，抵制行业内的不 良行径。（（6）客户服务：共同分析行业发展趋势及用户需求变化，并为此 项战略合作的调整与优化提供数据 ...

Group 1: SF Express (顺丰同城) / Logistics - The company achieved revenue of 10.236 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48.81%, and a net profit of 137 million yuan, up 120.43% year-on-year [3][4] - The ToB delivery and last-mile business saw significant growth, with a 50%+ increase in same-city delivery orders, driving revenue to 5.779 billion yuan, a 43.11% increase year-on-year [4] - The company’s gross margin was 6.65%, slightly down by 0.23 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 0.44 percentage points to 1.34% [5][6] Group 2: China Everbright Environment (光大环境) / Environmental Governance - The company reported a revenue of 14.304 billion HKD in H1 2025, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.207 billion HKD, down 10% year-on-year [8][9] - Operating service revenue increased by 5% to 9.943 billion HKD, accounting for 70% of total revenue, while construction service revenue fell by 49% [9][10] - The company’s gross margin improved significantly to 44.26%, up 5.53 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin increased to 19.44%, up 0.84 percentage points [10] Group 3: Fenbi (粉笔) / Education - The company reported a revenue of 1.492 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 227 million yuan, down 18.39% year-on-year [11][12] - The AI question-answering system is expected to become a new growth engine, with significant potential for revenue increase [13][14] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.525 billion yuan, 2.618 billion yuan, and 2.793 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [14] Group 4: HuiLiang Technology (汇量科技) / Advertising Marketing - The company achieved total revenue of 938 million USD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and a net profit of 32.28 million USD, up 340% year-on-year [15][17] - The average daily advertising requests increased from over 200 billion in H1 2024 to over 300 billion in H1 2025, indicating strong client engagement [18] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.211 billion USD, 2.747 billion USD, and 3.301 billion USD for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [18] Group 5: Focus Media (分众传媒) / Advertising Marketing - The company reported total revenue of 6.112 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.43%, and a net profit of 2.665 billion yuan, up 6.87% year-on-year [20][21] - The gross margin improved to 68.3%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 43.4%, up 2.3 percentage points [21][22] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares, with a cash dividend ratio of 25.5% [20] Group 6: Tungsten Industry / Industry Research - The report highlights a tightening supply of tungsten due to regulatory constraints and declining ore grades, with limited new projects expected [27][28] - The demand for tungsten is projected to grow, driven by applications in hard alloys and the semiconductor industry, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project expected to boost demand [28][29] - The strategic importance of tungsten is increasing due to export controls and tariffs, leading to a potential revaluation of tungsten resources [29] Group 7: Great Wall Motors (长城汽车) / Passenger Vehicles - The company reported total revenue of 92.33 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of 6.34 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [31][32] - The company’s Q2 2025 revenue reached 52.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, with a significant increase in net profit [32][33] - The company forecasts revenues of 225.3 billion yuan, 278.5 billion yuan, and 312.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [34] Group 8: Dongfang Tower (东方铁塔) / Agricultural Chemical Products - The company achieved revenue of 2.148 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.51%, and a net profit of 493 million yuan, up 79.18% year-on-year [35][36] - The company’s Q2 revenue was 1.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.20%, with a significant increase in net profit [37][38] - The company forecasts revenues of 4.926 billion yuan, 5.145 billion yuan, and 5.372 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [39] Group 9: Yipule (易普力) / Chemical Products - The company reported revenue of 4.713 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a net profit of 409 million yuan, up 16.4% year-on-year [42][43] - The company’s Q2 revenue was 2.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, with a significant increase in net profit [43][44] - The company’s performance is driven by high-quality development and market investment [44]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.7%, the STAR Market 50 by 0.8%, the CSI 1000 by 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.8%. The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.1% [5] - The best-performing sectors included defense and military (+2.7%), communication (+2.4%), electronics (+2.2%), pharmaceutical and biological (+1.8%), and steel (+1.4%). The worst-performing sectors were banking (-0.4%), transportation (-0.4%), environmental protection (-0.3%), public utilities (-0.2%), and construction decoration (-0.2%) [5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 15,394 billion, with a net inflow of 1.855 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [5] Important Recommendations Oriental Tower (002545) - The recommendation logic is based on the sustained high prosperity of global potash fertilizer, with the company actively expanding production, which is expected to lead to record-breaking performance [6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4,417 million, 4,944 million, and 5,864 million, with growth rates of 5.26%, 11.93%, and 18.61% respectively. Net profit is projected at 1,082.6 million, 1,198.9 million, and 1,540.31 million, with growth rates of 91.86%, 10.74%, and 28.48% respectively [6] - Recent price increases in potash fertilizer are seen as a catalyst for growth [6] Source Pet (001222) - The recommendation logic highlights the company's leadership in pet leashes and the rapid growth of its self-owned brand, which is expected to open up valuation space [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,671 million, 2,067 million, and 2,458 million, with growth rates of 27.59%, 23.66%, and 18.93% respectively. Net profit is projected at 166 million, 209 million, and 251 million, with growth rates of 1.26%, 25.45%, and 20.43% respectively [7] - The growth of the OEM business and the acceleration of the self-owned brand are seen as key drivers [7] Important Insights Strategy Report - The core viewpoint indicates that since 2018, only a few assets have outperformed gold, including certain cryptocurrencies and specific sectors like precious metals and small-cap stocks [8] - The report suggests that while some assets may temporarily outperform gold, maintaining that performance over the long term is challenging, thus emphasizing gold's long-term allocation value [8] - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend stocks and emerging technology sectors for long-term investments, while short-term attention should be on financial and technology sectors [9] Bond Market Research - The issuance of land reserve bonds is expected to have limited benefits for state-owned and private enterprises, primarily improving liquidity for urban investment platforms [10] - The report emphasizes a more granular analysis at the provincial level for potential interest rate spread opportunities [10] Important Comments Chalk (02469) - The introduction of the AI test preparation system is expected to help the company regain market share and enhance profits, marking a pivotal moment for growth [12] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2,805 million, 2,914 million, and 3,027 million, with net profit projections of 391 million, 434 million, and 473 million, reflecting growth rates of 7.94%, 10.89%, and 9.16% respectively [12] - The AI product's competitive pricing and market share recovery are seen as critical catalysts for future profitability [13]