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华尔街到陆家嘴精选|美股再现“疯狂星期一”!美国科技股仍有上涨空间?黄金后市将如何走?哪些板块稳了?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 02:05
评论员徐广语:受中美联合声明利好推动,隔夜美股三大股指延续反弹势头,但市场对政策红利的定价 或已接近充分。自6月中旬以来,标普500指数累计上涨逾8%,纳斯达克指数涨幅超12%,估值层面已 隐含对贸易摩擦缓和的乐观预期(标普动态PE回升至21.5倍,高于近十年均值)。细分来看,提前透支 关税下调逻辑的零售、科技板块短期有望走强,中期动力不足,亚马逊等龙头股估值溢价高达30%,进 一步上攻需基本面验证。 东北证券首席投资顾问郭峰:关税压力缓和,美股反弹后仍将面临回调压力。A股有望挑战春季行情高 点,结构行情仍然是主旋律。 市场风险偏好略有回升,科技类资产更具弹性。 ①隔夜美股全线大涨 道指涨超1100点创阶段新高 受利好消息带动,隔夜美股高开高走,三大指数大幅收涨,且均收于3月以来的最高水平。截至收盘, 标普500指数涨3.26%,报5844.19点,纳斯达克综合指数涨4.35%,报18708.34点,双双创3月3日以来收 盘新高;道琼斯指数涨2.81%,报42410.10点,创3月27日以来收盘新高。此外,纳斯达克中国金龙指数 大幅收涨5.40%,热门中概股普涨。隔夜美股的表现是否已充分定价中美联合声明的利好 ...
美关税绞索收紧,亚马逊极限求生
Core Viewpoint - Amazon is facing significant challenges due to changes in global trade dynamics, particularly the impact of tariffs and trade policies on its supply chain and profitability [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1, Amazon reported net sales of $155.67 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, marking the lowest growth rate in 2023; net profit was $17.13 billion, up 64% from the previous year [2]. - The retail segment remains the largest revenue source, with online store sales growing 5% to $57.41 billion, and third-party seller services increasing by 6% to $36.51 billion [2]. - AWS cloud services generated $29.27 billion in sales, a 17% increase, and $11.55 billion in operating income, helping to offset pressures from the retail sector [2][7]. Impact of Tariffs - Amazon's guidance for Q2 indicates revenue between $159 billion and $164 billion, with operating profit expected to be between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, both below analyst expectations [3]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that if Amazon cannot pass on tariff costs, it could face annual profit losses of up to $10 billion, equivalent to 17% of its projected net profit for 2024 [4][6]. - The cost of goods sold in the U.S. could rise by 15%-20% due to tariffs, with global costs increasing by 9%-12% [3][4]. Seller Dynamics - Many third-party sellers are already raising prices and cutting advertising spend due to increased costs from tariffs, which could reduce Amazon's commission income and affect product diversity on the platform [3][4]. - Some sellers are preemptively stockpiling inventory to mitigate the impact of tariffs, but this is a short-term strategy that may lead to price increases as inventory depletes [5][6]. Market Response - Despite current challenges, Amazon has not yet observed a significant decline in market demand or a substantial increase in average retail prices [5]. - The upcoming Prime Day event may see reduced participation from some sellers due to tariff impacts, potentially affecting advertising revenue [6]. Long-term Outlook - Amazon's strong brand and Prime membership system may help maintain market share despite competitive pressures from platforms like Temu, especially in the context of ongoing tariff challenges [6][7]. - The performance of AWS and advertising segments, which grew by 17% and 18% respectively, may provide a buffer against retail pressures [7].
【产业互联网周报】阿里通义再失大将:鄢志杰、薄列峰三个月内相继离职;欧盟对TikTok处以5.3亿欧元罚款;英伟达:中国特供版GPU将6月上市
Tai Mei Ti A P P· 2025-05-07 09:00
Financial Performance - Palantir's Q1 revenue surged by 39% to $884 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $863 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $397.3 million, surpassing the forecast of $371 million [2] - Amazon's Q1 net sales reached $155.67 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, with AWS revenue at $29.27 billion, growing 17% but below expectations, leading to a stock drop of over 3% [3] - Microsoft's Q3 revenue hit $51.87 billion, driven by cloud and AI, with Microsoft Cloud revenue at $42.4 billion, a 20% increase, and Azure growth at 33% [4] Industry Developments - Xiaomi announced the open-sourcing of its first inference model, Xiaomi MiMo, which outperformed OpenAI's o1-mini in mathematical reasoning and coding assessments [8] - DeepSeek released the Prover-V2 model with 671 billion parameters, utilizing a more efficient file format and supporting various computational precisions [5] - Huawei launched an AI data lake solution to enhance model training and inference efficiency [6] Corporate Strategies - Tencent restructured its TEG division, creating new departments for large language models and multimodal models, aiming to improve efficiency and reduce resource waste [12] - Ant Group plans to separately list its overseas segment, Ant International, in Hong Kong, with revenues accounting for about 20% of the group's total [10] - OpenAI is reportedly acquiring AI coding tool Windsurf for approximately $3 billion, marking its largest acquisition to date [14] Market Trends - The MaaS and AI large model solutions market in China is projected to grow significantly, reaching 710 million yuan in 2024, a 215.7% increase from 2023 [22] - China's AI industry is expected to surpass 700 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% [23] - The new version of the National Intelligent Manufacturing Standard System Construction Guide emphasizes the integration of AI with manufacturing [24]