21世纪经济报道记者季媛媛 2025年，中国生物医药行业一扫前几年的阴霾，呈现出一系列活跃信号：创新药对外授权（License- out）交易频传捷报，一级市场融资活动回暖，一度沉寂的海外基石投资者重新出现在港股生物科技 （18A）公司的IPO名单中。投融资的"暖意"似乎正在驱散资本寒冬的记忆。 然而，这是否表明长达数年的周期性深度调整已然彻底结束？当前的复苏究竟是可持续的"新常态"的开 端，还是阶段性的情绪修复？步入2026年，驱动行业前行的核心力量究竟是什么？企业与投资者又该如 何辨识真正的机遇与潜在的泡沫呢？ 针对这些问题，安永大中华区生命科学与医疗健康行业联席主管合伙人吴晓颖接受了21世纪经济报道记 者的专访。基于其对行业的长期深耕与一线观察，吴晓颖认为，市场正从前几年的"极致压缩"回归"相 对正常"，但尚未进入全面繁荣。新一轮的上升通道正在形成，其底层支撑是结构性变化而非短期刺 激。在这个过程中，分化与理性将成为关键词。 "其实，这两年我们所看到的投融资变化，更多是从前几年的极致压缩状态，回归到了一个相对正常的 状态。"吴晓颖开门见山地指出，市场情绪与投融资活动均在修复恢复，但这更像是有质量的复苏， ...

Core Insights - AstraZeneca announced a $2.5 billion investment in Beijing, which includes establishing a sixth global strategic R&D center and an advanced AI and data science laboratory, highlighting China's role as a global hub for innovative drug development [2] - The number of drugs developed in China has doubled, with approximately one-third of global licensing deals involving Chinese biopharmaceutical companies, indicating China's emergence as a source of innovation [2] - AstraZeneca aims to collaborate with promising Chinese biotech firms to achieve its goal of introducing 20 breakthrough innovative drugs globally by 2030 [2] - In the past two years, AstraZeneca has signed 15 licensing agreements with 14 Chinese biotech companies, showcasing its commitment to leveraging local innovation [2] - AstraZeneca plans to establish around 800 diagnostic and treatment centers in China by the end of 2025 to enhance standardized treatment across various disease areas [3] Company Strategy - AstraZeneca's investment in China is driven by the country's rich clinical research resources and improving innovation capabilities, positioning it as a key hub for global research and clinical development [3] - The company is focused on integrating into China's life sciences ecosystem and is actively seeking collaborations with companies that align with its product portfolio [2] Future Outlook - AstraZeneca is optimistic about the potential for increased foundational research collaboration and innovative therapy exploration in China, aiming to inject stronger momentum into global drug development [3]

Core Insights - China's pharmaceutical innovation has transitioned from being a "follower" to a central player in global business development (BD) transactions, reshaping multinational pharmaceutical companies' R&D strategies due to the rise of Chinese scientific capabilities [1][10] Group 1: License-out Transactions - In the past five years, the share of upfront payments and total amounts in License-out transactions in China has significantly increased, with 2023 H1 seeing upfront payments and total amounts reach $2.6 billion and $60 billion, respectively, accounting for 91% and 99% of related transactions in China [1] - The total amount of related transactions in China for H1 2023 exceeded the total for the entire year of 2024 by $3.7 billion, achieving a year-on-year growth of 129% [1] - The number of License-out transactions in China reached 72 in H1 2023, representing 50% of related transaction numbers, marking the highest level in five years [1] Group 2: Global Positioning and Investment - The trend has led to the first instance of License-out upfront payments surpassing total financing amounts in the primary market, with multinational companies and overseas venture capital becoming core support for the development of Chinese innovative drugs [2] - AstraZeneca's $2.5 billion investment reflects China's emergence as a global hub for innovative drugs, with a doubling of drug approvals from China contributing to about one-third of global licensing transactions [2][3] Group 3: Innovation Ecosystem Transformation - The past decade has seen a fundamental change in China's pharmaceutical innovation ecosystem, transitioning from a focus on imitation to innovation since the 2015 reform of drug and medical device review and approval processes [3] - The number of innovative drugs approved in China has steadily increased from 9 in 2018 to 42 in 2024, with 93% of the 43 approved innovative drugs in H1 2025 being domestically developed [3] - The time gap for Chinese innovative drugs from concept to approval has decreased from 10 years in 2010 to 3.7 years in 2024 compared to the U.S. [3] Group 4: Clinical Trial Advantages - China has a significant unmet patient demand, with millions suffering from chronic diseases, making it an attractive location for drug development [4] - The cost and speed advantages of clinical trials in China are notable, with the direct cost per participant in Phase III trials being about one-third of that in the U.S., and faster patient recruitment [4] - A complete innovation drug R&D industrial chain has formed in China, involving numerous enterprises and research institutions across all stages from basic research to clinical trials [4] Group 5: Future Market Projections - The Chinese innovative drug market is projected to reach approximately $200 billion by 2030, a significant increase from over $60 billion in 2024 [9] - The proportion of innovative drug sales in overall drug spending is expected to rise from 29% in 2024 to 53% by 2030, aligning with industry reports predicting substantial growth in the innovative drug market [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The small molecule GLP-1RA market is expected to provide new incremental space for weight loss and diabetes management, with significant interest from multinational corporations (MNCs) accelerating their involvement in this sector [7][25] - The leading product in the small molecule GLP-1RA space is Orforglipron from Eli Lilly, which has completed multiple global Phase III clinical trials and is positioned to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) in the second half of 2025 [25][26] - Domestic companies are making substantial progress in the small molecule GLP-1RA pipeline, with several candidates entering late-stage clinical trials, indicating strong potential for commercialization and international expansion [19][25] Summary by Sections 1. Development Prospects of Small Molecule GLP-1RA - Oral GLP-1 drugs offer advantages such as ease of use and high patient compliance, with over 75% of initial treatment patients preferring daily oral therapy [14] - The small molecule GLP-1RA market is characterized by low costs and flexibility in usage scenarios, with significant recent business development (BD) transactions [14][23] 2. MNCs Accelerating Small Molecule GLP-1RA Pipeline - Eli Lilly's Orforglipron is the fastest progressing small molecule GLP-1RA product globally, with three Phase III trials achieving primary endpoints [25][27] - Other major pharmaceutical companies like AstraZeneca and Roche are also advancing their small molecule GLP-1RA pipelines, with several candidates in Phase II trials [29][30] 3. Pharmacokinetic Characteristics Impacting Efficacy - Pharmacokinetic features are crucial for the efficacy of small molecule GLP-1RA, with companies exploring new formulations to enhance solubility and absorption [6][19] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies as potential beneficiaries in the small molecule GLP-1RA space, including Innovent Biologics, East China Pharmaceutical, and others, highlighting their strong clinical development and commercialization potential [7][19]

Core Viewpoint - AstraZeneca's AZD6234 and AZD9550 injections have been approved for clinical trials in China, aimed at long-term weight management for overweight or obese adults with at least one obesity-related comorbidity [2][4]. Group 1: Clinical Trial Details - AZD6234 is a long-acting insulin analog currently undergoing Phase II monotherapy studies for obesity in China and the US, while also being tested in combination with AZD9550 in various countries [4]. - AZD9550 is a dual receptor agonist targeting GLP-1R and GCGR, with indications covering metabolic dysfunction-related fatty liver disease, type 2 diabetes, and obesity, and is also in clinical research [4]. - The ASCEND study is a global, multi-center, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase IIb clinical trial, evaluating the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of the combination therapy or monotherapy in overweight/obese adults with obesity-related complications, aiming to enroll 360 participants [4]. Group 2: Product Pipeline - AstraZeneca has three innovative products in its obesity treatment pipeline: AZD5004, AZD6234, and AZD9550, with AZD5004 currently in Phase II monotherapy clinical trials for diabetes and obesity [4].