国盛证券（002670）发布研报称，看好速腾聚创(02498)激光雷达产品的订单需求和商业化潜力，预计 2025-2027年的总收入达23/35/44亿，同比增长37%/56%/24%;non-GAAP归母净利润为-1.72/1.63/3.66亿 元。基于6x2026e P/S，该行给予速腾聚创约211.4亿人民币目标市值，对应约50港币目标价，重申"买 入"评级。 在割草机器人领域，公司推出E1R和Airy两款产品，满足了割草场景中复杂的边界识别需求。在城市配 送领域，公司依托EMX、E1R与Fairy三款核心产品，已与全球90%的头部客户建立合作关系。Robotaxi 方面，速腾聚创与滴滴达成新一代Robotaxi车型定点合作，将采用单车10颗数字化激光雷达方案。北美 客户将于2025年底扩大车队规模，加速EM4与E1的量产落地。 AC系列打开长期增长空间 10月IROS大会上，公司推出的Active Camera2是业内首款将dTOF、RGB双目与IMU深度集成的一体化 传感器系统，能为机器人操作提供底层硬件级融合的3D空间感知与6自由度运动信息，被Yole Group选 为人形机器人融合感知方案的唯一 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，看好速腾聚创(02498)激光雷达产品的订单需求和商业化潜 力，预计2025-2027年的总收入达23/35/44亿，同比增长37%/56%/24%;non-GAAP归母净利润 为-1.72/1.63/3.66亿元。基于6x2026e P/S，该行给予速腾聚创约211.4亿人民币目标市值，对应约50港币 目标价，重申"买入"评级。 在割草机器人领域，公司推出E1R和Airy两款产品，满足了割草场景中复杂的边界识别需求。在城市配 送领域，公司依托EMX、E1R与Fairy三款核心产品，已与全球90%的头部客户建立合作关系。Robotaxi 方面，速腾聚创与滴滴达成新一代Robotaxi车型定点合作，将采用单车10颗数字化激光雷达方案。北美 客户将于2025年底扩大车队规模，加速EM4与E1的量产落地。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 速腾聚创披露2025Q3业绩情况 速腾聚创2025Q3出货18.6万颗激光雷达，同比增长34.0%。其中，ADAS激光雷达出货量约15.0万颗， 同比增长14.3%;机器人激光雷达出货约3.6万颗，同比增长393.1%。速腾聚创2025Q3收入达4. ...

| 速腾聚创系列 车中旭霞 | | --- | | 行业深度 | | 《 汽车前瞻研究系列十六-激光雷达的市场空间、技术路线及产业链拆解 》——20220127 | | 公司深度 | | 《 速腾聚创（02498.HK）-激光雷达自主龙头企业，致力于成为全球领先的机器人技术平台公司》——20250326 | | 公司点评 | | 《速腾聚创（02498.HK）- 单三季度激光雷达销量同比增长34%，致力于成为全球领先的机器人技术平台公司 》—— | | 20251209 | | 《速腾聚创（02498.HK）-单二季度收入同比增长 24%，在手订单充沛》——20250908 | | 《速腾聚创（02498.HK）-在手订单充足，毛利率同环比提升》——20250607 | | 《 速腾聚创（02498.HK）- 2024年收入同比增长47%，致力于成为全球领先的机器人技术平台公司》——20250411 | 核心观点 2025Q3公司实现营业收入4.07亿元，同比减少0.2%。 2025Q3，公司实现收入为4.07亿元，同比减少0.2%，环比减少10.6%，净利润为-1.01亿元（2025Q2为-0.51亿元， ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 407 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.6% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was -101 million yuan, compared to -51 million yuan in Q2 2025 and -82 million yuan in Q3 2024 [1] - The sales revenue from ADAS-related LiDAR products was 245 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.8% [1] - The revenue from robotics and other products was 142 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 157.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.3% [1] - Total sales volume of LiDAR products reached 185,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 34.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.3% [1] - The gross margin improved by 6.5 percentage points year-on-year to 23.9%, while the net margin was -24.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5 percentage points [1] Product Development and Market Position - The company has a strong order backlog benefiting from the rapid development of ADAS and high-level autonomous driving [2] - In 2025, the company’s self-developed SPAD-SoC and 2D VCSEL chips received AEC-Q series automotive certification, establishing a unique mass-producible digital LiDAR matrix [2] - The company has secured contracts with 13 automotive manufacturers for 56 vehicle models, and over 90% of global Robotaxi and Robotruck companies have partnered with the company [2] - The company has achieved contracts with 12 overseas and joint venture brands for 23 vehicle models, covering key markets in Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America [2] - The company has a total of 32 automotive manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers with contracts for 144 vehicle models [2] Technological Advancements - The company introduced the "Active Camera2" at the IROS conference in October 2025, which is the first industry product to integrate dTOF, RGB stereo, and IMU for enhanced robotic perception [3] - The AC2 system provides 3D spatial awareness and six degrees of freedom motion information for robotic operations [3] Financial Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 2.069 billion, 3.109 billion, and 4.313 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 2.489 billion, 3.617 billion, and 5.275 billion yuan [3] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to -250 million, 60 million, and 460 million yuan, up from previous estimates of -280 million, 60 million, and 460 million yuan [3] - The company maintains an outperform rating despite the adjustments due to anticipated fluctuations in downstream demand [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][6][72] Core Insights - The company aims to become a global leader in robotic technology platforms, leveraging its advancements in AI and laser radar technology [25][72] - The company has seen a significant increase in laser radar sales, with a 34% year-on-year growth in total sales volume for Q3 2025 [1][9] - The company has a robust order book, benefiting from the rapid development of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving [2][72] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 407 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year and a 10.6% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][8] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was -101 million yuan, compared to -51 million yuan in Q2 2025 and -82 million yuan in Q3 2024 [1][8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 improved by 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 23.9% [1][16] Product Development - The company has developed a unique digital laser radar matrix, including products like EM4, EMX, and E1, which have passed automotive standards certification [2][35] - The company launched the "Active Camera 2," a pioneering sensor system that integrates multiple technologies for enhanced robotic perception [3][54] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the robotics sector, focusing on components that enhance robotic capabilities [39][43] Market Position - The company has secured partnerships with over 90% of key players in the Robotaxi and Robotruck sectors, indicating strong market penetration [2][65] - The company has received orders from 32 automotive manufacturers for a total of 144 vehicle models, showcasing its competitive position in the market [58][60] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for digital laser radar in various applications, including autonomous vehicles and robotics [72][65]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to benefit from rapid growth in downstream demand due to its digital product advantages, maintaining an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 47.00, which implies a 43% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 407 million, aligning with previous expectations [2] - Gross margin improved year-on-year by 6.5 percentage points to 23.9% in Q3 2025 [2] - The robotics sector showed significant growth, with laser radar sales increasing by 393.1% year-on-year and revenue rising by 157.8% [2] - The company aims to achieve profitability in Q4 2025 [2] ADAS Business - The new EM platform digital products have gained recognition, with 13 automakers securing 56 model designations [3] - The EMX platform, targeting L2+ vehicles, has received 49 model designations and is expected to enter mass production in 2026 [3] - The EM4 platform is already integrated into several models, including Zeekr 9X and Zhiji LS6/LS9, positioning it as a core component for L3 vehicles [3] - The company has secured multiple model designations from 12 overseas and joint venture brands, including major European and North American electric vehicle manufacturers, indicating a new growth avenue [3] Robotics and Other Businesses - The company has partnered with Didi to equip its next-generation Robotaxi with 10 units of automotive-grade digital laser radar [4] - The company is entering the lawn mowing robot market with E1R and Airy, collaborating with several top 5 industry clients, with large-scale production set to begin in Q4 2025 [4] - In urban delivery, the company has partnered with 90% of leading global clients, and the newly launched Fairy has been commercialized with the New Stone Age unmanned vehicle X3 [4] - The introduction of Active Camera2 in October enhances the company's embodied intelligence layout [4]