November 24, 2025 12:33 PM GMT CROSS-ASSET STRATEGY CROSS-ASSET STRATEGY Cross-Asset Strategy With max policy uncertainty behind us, 'micro' stories like AI financing take the spotlight. Global credit markets of all genres – unsecured, secured, securitized, structured, both public and private – will have an increasing role to play in enabling AI-related financing, which in turn leads to differentiated performance within credit. Allocation: Stocks > Bonds, US > RoW A pro-cyclical policy mix lifts equities, p ...

Core Viewpoint - The article compares two high-yielding mortgage REITs, AGNC Investment and Starwood Property Trust, highlighting the differences in their investment strategies and risk profiles, with Starwood being presented as a more stable option for income investors. Group 1: AGNC Investment - AGNC Investment offers a high dividend yield of over 14%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% yield [1] - The REIT primarily invests in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are low-risk but also yield lower returns [3] - AGNC uses leverage to enhance returns, achieving a return on equity of around 17% in the third quarter, aligning with its cost of capital [4] - The REIT has a history of dividend cuts, reducing its payment from $0.22 per share in 2014 to $0.12 per share currently, with the last cut occurring in 2020 [6] Group 2: Starwood Property Trust - Starwood Property Trust has a diversified portfolio, with 53% in commercial real estate loans, 9% in residential loans, and 10% in infrastructure-backed loans, providing stable interest income [7] - The REIT also invests directly in properties, generating stable and steadily rising rental income [9] - Starwood's recent acquisition of Fundamental Income Properties for $2.2 billion enhances its diversification and is expected to provide stable cash flow with a 17-year average lease term and a 2.2% annual lease escalation rate [10] - Starwood has maintained a stable dividend rate for over a decade without any reductions, making it a reliable income source [11] Group 3: Investment Strategy Comparison - AGNC's focused investment strategy allows for high returns but carries more risk, as evidenced by its declining dividend history [13] - In contrast, Starwood's diversified investment strategy reduces risk and provides flexibility to adapt to market conditions, allowing it to capitalize on various investment opportunities [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25 [20] - Economic return for Q3 was 8.1%, bringing the year-to-date economic return to 11.5% [20][21] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [22] - Average yields improved to 5.46% from 5.41% in the prior quarter, with net interest spread ex-PAA increasing to 1.5% [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter-over-quarter, with total growth of $7.8 billion [9] - Residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with average yields rising to 6.29% [11][22] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment [5] - Inflation remained elevated near 3%, with a modest impact from higher tariffs on goods inflation [6] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, generating a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [18] - Focus on maintaining high credit quality in residential credit and leveraging proprietary assets through the correspondent channel [15] - The company is positioned to benefit from expected Fed cuts and healthy fixed income demand [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the agency sector despite tighter spreads, citing improved fundamentals and technicals [26] - The outlook for the residential credit business is positive, with expectations for continued growth in the private label market [18] - Management remains cautious about taking on additional rate risk given current market uncertainties [56] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program [8] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased slightly due to lower mortgage rates, but cash flows remain stable [16] - The company has $7.4 billion in unencumbered assets, including $5.9 billion in cash and Agency MBS [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management indicated that agency investments remain attractive despite tighter spreads, with expectations for increased demand from banks and REITs [26][27] Question: MSR bulk supply and pricing - Management noted that bulk supply has increased from large participants, with stable pricing throughout the year [29] Question: Breakdown of agency returns - Management provided insights on the spread to swaps versus treasuries, indicating a blended yield of about 160 basis points [33] Question: Book value performance - Management reported a 1% increase in book value pre-dividend accrual, translating to a 1.5% to 2% economic return [35] Question: Prepayment protection in the OBX portfolio - Management highlighted that the OBX portfolio has shown slower prepayment speeds than anticipated, benefiting from prepayment penalties [82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25, achieving an economic return of 8.1% for Q3 and 11.5% year-to-date [20][21] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [22] - The average yield improved to 5.46% from 5.41% in the prior quarter, while the average repo rate improved by three basis points to 4.5% [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter-over-quarter, with total growth of $7.8 billion [9][10] - The residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with significant contributions from securitization and loan purchases [11][12] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion, with stable cash flows and low delinquency rates [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, despite elevated inflation near 3% [5][6] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month, leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate [7] - Interest rate volatility declined, benefiting the company's portfolio by lowering convexity costs [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, generating a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [19] - The investment strategies are positioned for the balance of the year, with expectations of declining macro volatility and additional Fed cuts [18] - The company aims to increase its residential credit and MSR weightings to a combined 40% [27][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a positive outlook for the agency sector, citing improved demand dynamics and expectations for regulatory reform [17][18] - The company remains cautious about taking on additional rate risk, preferring to maintain a stable duration profile amid market uncertainties [56][59] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining high credit quality in the residential credit portfolio, especially in light of softer housing market conditions [15] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program [8] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased modestly due to lower mortgage rates, but the portfolio remains well insulated [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management noted that despite tighter spreads, the agency sector remains attractive due to improved fundamentals and technicals [26] Question: Bulk supply and pricing for MSR - The bulk supply has increased from large participants, with stable pricing encouraging future bulk supply [29] Question: Breakdown of agency returns - The spread to swaps versus treasuries is around 35 to 40 basis points, with low realized volatility aiding hedging costs [33] Question: Outlook for mortgage spreads and securitization - Non-QM issuance is expected to grow, with the market penetration of non-QM loans increasing significantly [47][49] Question: Duration risk and portfolio management - The company is currently maintaining a close-to-zero duration gap due to market uncertainties, with a cautious approach to taking on additional rate risk [56][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25, achieving an economic return of 8.1% for Q3 and 11.5% year to date [19][20] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [20] - The average yield improved to 5.46% compared to 5.41% in the prior quarter, while the average repo rate improved by three basis points to 4.5% [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter over quarter, with total growth of $7.8 billion [10] - The residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with new origination non-QM AAA spreads tightening by 15 basis points [12] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion, with stable cash flows and unchanged serious delinquencies at 50 basis points [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth likely on pace with Q2, supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment [6] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month, while inflation remained elevated near 3% [6][7] - The agency MBS market saw improved supply and demand dynamics, with fixed income fund inflows more than 50% higher than the average over the past few quarters [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, which has generated a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [17] - The focus remains on maintaining a high credit quality portfolio and leveraging proprietary assets through the correspondent channel [14] - The company is positioned to benefit from expected Fed cuts and a healthy fixed income demand, with plans to increase allocations to residential credit and MSR [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a positive outlook, highlighting the benefits of declining macro volatility and anticipated Fed cuts [16] - The company remains flexible in the current investing climate with historically low leverage and significant liquidity [18] - Concerns about the housing market were noted, with expectations of modest cumulative depreciation due to elevated mortgage rates [14] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of accretive equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program [9] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased modestly due to lower mortgage rates, but the portfolio remains well insulated [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management indicated that agency investments remain attractive despite tighter spreads, with expectations for increased demand from banks and overseas participants [26][27] Question: MSR bulk supply and pricing - The bulk supply has increased from large participants, with stable pricing throughout the year, encouraging future bulk supply [29][30] Question: Agency returns breakdown - The spread to swaps versus treasuries is around 35 to 40 basis points, with low realized volatility aiding hedging costs [35][36] Question: MSR purchase strategy - The company prefers lower note rate MSRs to mitigate negative convexity risk, with a focus on maintaining a diversified portfolio [46][48] Question: Outlook for mortgage spreads and securitization - Management expects stable mortgage spreads to support continued market activity, with NonQM market penetration increasing [51][54] Question: Duration risk and portfolio management - The company is currently maintaining a close to zero duration gap due to market uncertainty, with plans to manage risks carefully [62][66] Question: GSEs' potential impact on the market - Speculation exists regarding GSEs becoming more active buyers, but the market has strong demand from REITs and fixed income funds [70][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25, achieving an economic return of 8.1% for Q3 2025 and 11.5% year-to-date [19][20] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [20] - The average yield improved to 5.46% from 5.41% in the prior quarter, while the average repo rate improved by three basis points to 4.5% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter-over-quarter, with a total growth of $7.8 billion [8][19] - The residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with significant contributions from new securitizations [10][11] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion, with stable cash flows and low delinquency rates [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, despite elevated inflation near 3% [4][5] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month, leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate [5] - The agency MBS market saw improved supply and demand dynamics, with fixed income fund inflows over 50% higher than average [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, focusing on agency MBS, residential credit, and MSR, which has generated a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [16][18] - The outlook remains positive, with expectations of additional Fed cuts and healthy fixed income demand supporting investment strategies [17][18] - The company aims to increase its residential credit and MSR weightings to a combined 40% in the near term [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macro environment is expected to remain stable, with declining volatility and a favorable technical backdrop for agency MBS [16][17] - The company is cautious about taking on additional rate risk, preferring to maintain a close-to-zero duration gap due to market uncertainties [50][52] - The management expressed confidence in the stability of earnings available for distribution, supported by a strong swap portfolio and low leverage [60][67] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program, and reopened the mortgage REIT preferred market [6][7] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased slightly due to lower mortgage rates, but the portfolio remains well insulated with stable cash flows [14][15] - A new partnership with PennyMac Financial Services was announced, enhancing the company's servicing capabilities [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management indicated that agency investments remain attractive despite tighter spreads, with expectations for increased demand from banks and REITs as the Fed continues to cut rates [25][26] Question: Bulk supply and pricing of MSR - The bulk supply of MSR has increased by 50%, primarily from large participants, with stable pricing throughout the year [27] Question: Breakdown of agency returns - The spread to swaps versus treasuries is around 35 to 40 basis points, with a blended yield of about 160 basis points, indicating a favorable risk-return profile [30] Question: Prepayment protection in specified pools - Management discussed the advantages of specified pools for prepayment protection, emphasizing their long-term options and favorable convexity profiles [34][35] Question: Outlook for mortgage spreads and securitization - The company expects continued activity in the non-QM market, with stable mortgage spreads allowing for growth despite seasonal pressures [42][43] Question: Duration risk and leverage - Management confirmed a cautious approach to duration risk, maintaining a close-to-zero duration gap while evaluating opportunities for future leverage [50][52] Question: Stability of NII and dividend coverage - The company expressed confidence in maintaining stable NII levels and ensuring dividend coverage, supported by a strong hedge ratio [58][67]

Financial Performance - Earnings available for distribution was $0.73 per average common share for the quarter[11] - Book value per common share was $19.25[11] - The company declared a quarterly common stock cash dividend of $0.70 per share[11] - Economic return was 8.1% for the quarter and 11.5% year-to-date through the third quarter[11] Portfolio Composition and Growth - Total portfolio was $97.8 billion, including $87.3 billion in Agency MBS, representing 89% of total assets and 64% of dedicated capital[11] - The Agency portfolio grew by 10% during the quarter, with new purchases predominantly in specified pools with call protection across 5.5% and 6.0% coupons[11] - The Residential Credit portfolio increased 4% to $6.9 billion, representing 17% of dedicated capital[11] - The MSR portfolio increased 6% to $3.5 billion in market value, representing 19% of dedicated capital[11] Financing and Capital Markets Activities - Economic leverage was 5.7x, down from 5.8x in the second quarter[11] - The company raised $1.1 billion of accretive capital during the quarter, including $823 million of common equity and $275 million through preferred stock issuance[11] - The company priced 24 residential whole loan securitizations totaling $12.4 billion in proceeds year-to-date[11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR's Q3 GAAP net income available to common stockholders was $156.3 million or $1.49 per common share, with net interest income at $38.5 million and distributable earnings at $75.3 million or $0.72 per common share [4] - Total economic return for the quarter was 7.75%, with quarter-end book value at $17.49 per common share, reflecting a 3.5% increase from June 30 and a 2.8% increase from August 8 [4][5] - The most recent estimate of book value as of October 21 was $17.5 per common share, including the accrual of the October common dividend of $0.24 per share [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR raised approximately $99.5 million by issuing about 6 million shares of common stock through an after-market offering program during Q3 [5] - The company paid monthly common stock dividends of $0.24 per share for a total of $0.72 for the quarter [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Federal Reserve resumed its easing cycle with a 25 basis point cut in September, leading to a constructive environment for agency MBS as financing conditions improved [8] - Treasury yields declined, and agency MBS spreads tightened by roughly 20 basis points, with volatility falling to its lowest level since 2022 [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARMOUR's strategy focuses on growing and deploying capital thoughtfully during spread dislocations while maintaining robust liquidity and dynamically adjusting hedges for disciplined risk management [20] - The company is positioned to benefit from potential GSE reforms, which could transform the current headwinds into tailwinds for MBS investors [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macro and political visibility has become more clouded due to the federal government shutdown, which delayed key data releases and introduced uncertainty to growth forecasts [9] - Despite the uncertainty, the market expects an easing bias through year-end, likely redirecting liquidity into agency MBS [10] Other Important Information - ARMOUR's portfolio is entirely invested in Agency CMBS and U.S. Treasuries, with a net duration of 0.2 years and implied leverage of 8.1x [12] - The aggregate portfolio prepayment rates rose to 9.6 CPR in October, a 19% increase from the Q3 average of 8.1 CPR, with expectations of a similar uptick in November [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current returns on incremental investments and hedge choices - Management indicated expected ROEs in the 16% to 18% range, slightly lower than previous quarters due to tight mortgage spreads [23][24] Question: Outlook for swap spreads and mortgage spreads on an OAS basis - Management expects swap spreads to continue normalizing, which would be a tailwind for the portfolio [26] Question: Thoughts on GSE deregulation and its implementation - Management acknowledged various levers the administration could pull to reduce borrower rates, indicating a balance between making GSEs attractive and lowering mortgage rates [31] Question: Hedge ratio changes and confidence in easing activity - Management explained that the hedge ratio is adjusted based on duration targets across the curve, reflecting a balanced view with a bias towards Fed easing [33][35] Question: Impact of interest rate volatility on MBS - Management noted that while volatility has decreased, they expect it to continue declining in the medium term, which could affect the valuation of options [41][43]

Core Insights - The mortgage REITs have identified an opportunity in agency-backed mortgages due to historically high spreads, leading to significant capital deployment in this sector [1][2][4] - Dynex Capital (DX) exemplifies the trend among agency mREITs, having raised over $3 billion to expand its investment portfolio in agency MBS [2][15] - The tightening of mortgage spreads has resulted in substantial mark-to-market gains for mREITs, with 30-year mortgage yields dropping from approximately 7% to 6.5% [7][11][31] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Agency-backed mortgages are considered nearly as safe as U.S. Treasuries, with the added risk of prepayment and duration risk [5] - The recent increase in mortgage rates over the past five years has led to many mortgages trading at a discount to par, making prepayment potentially profitable for mREITs [6] - The tightening of spreads has been beneficial, with a notable drop in 30-year mortgage yields contributing to gains in mREIT portfolios [7][11] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Many mREITs have followed a similar strategy to Dynex by issuing equity to capitalize on high mortgage spreads, which has diluted common shareholders but benefited preferred shareholders [17][31] - AGNC Investment has also expanded its agency RMBS portfolio through equity issuance, leading to increased asset value amid spread tightening [15][31] - Preferred shares of mREITs are viewed as more attractive investments compared to common shares, with many trading at discounts to par and offering high dividend yields [33] Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated 3Q earnings reports are expected to reflect significant gains in book value for mREITs due to the recent tightening of spreads [31][32] - The market may not yet fully recognize the gains experienced by these companies, which could lead to a shift in sentiment and a reduction in the risk premium for both common and preferred shares [32] - There is potential for investment in common shares, but preferred shares are generally considered the better option due to their higher yields and discounted prices [33]

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) shares have increased by 20.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 7.1% and its peers AGNC Investment (11.1% growth) and Arbor Realty Trust (1.3% decline) [1] Performance Drivers - Strategic Positioning: Annaly's disciplined diversification across the mortgage finance landscape, with a $89.5 billion investment portfolio as of June 30, 2025, primarily in $79.5 billion of highly liquid Agency MBS, enhances its risk-adjusted returns [5][6] - Adaptability: The company's structure allows it to adjust to market changes, with MSRs gaining value in rising interest rate environments, offsetting declines in agency MBS valuations [6][7] - Mortgage Rate Impact: Declining mortgage rates are improving housing affordability, increasing loan demand, and boosting net interest income (NII) to $493.2 million in the first half of 2025, up from $47.1 million a year ago [8][9] Financial Position - Strong Liquidity: As of June 30, 2025, Annaly had $7.4 billion in total assets available for financing, including $4.7 billion in cash and unencumbered Agency MBS, supporting its liquidity during adverse market conditions [11] - Dividend Yield: The company maintains a monthly dividend payout with a yield of 13.2% and a payout ratio of 99% [11] - Share Repurchase Plan: Annaly has a $1.5 billion share repurchase plan, which has not yet been utilized, but its liquidity position supports future capital distributions [13] Investment Considerations - Income Opportunity: Annaly is positioned as an attractive option for income-focused investors due to its high dividend yield and diversified portfolio that mitigates interest rate volatility [14] - Valuation Concerns: The company is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-tangible (P/TB) multiple of 1.1X, higher than the industry average of 1.07X, suggesting a premium valuation [15]