Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2 2025, the company reported a GAAP net loss applicable to common stockholders of $900,000 or $0.03 per diluted share, with a comprehensive loss of $600,000 or $0.02 per diluted share [17][19] - The book value per common share decreased to $3.34 from $3.58 as of March 31, 2025, reflecting a decline in NAV of approximately $6.2 million or 2.7% [7][19] - Earnings available for distribution (EAD) attributable to common stockholders were $3.2 million or $0.10 per share, impacted by the maturity of a significant hedge [17][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio had an unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $16.6 billion and a market value of approximately $225 million, representing about 43% of equity capital [12] - The residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) portfolio accounted for approximately 36% of equity capital, with a prepayment speed of 6.1 CPR [12][14] - The RMBS net interest spread was reported at 2.61%, lower than the previous quarter due to the impact of a maturing swap position [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ten-year treasury yield ended the quarter at 4.23%, slightly higher than the previous quarter, with the Agency MBS sector experiencing negative performance due to mortgage basis underperforming [6] - The economic environment showed resilience with low inflation, and the company is closely monitoring the Fed's potential shift towards a rate cut cycle [6][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company entered a strategic partnership with RealGenius LLC, a digital mortgage technology firm, to enhance its investment strategy and explore unique growth opportunities [7][9] - The management indicated a potential shift towards a more risk-on investment strategy as the economic environment stabilizes, while maintaining strong liquidity and prudent leverage [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the economic recovery and the potential for rate cuts by the Fed, which could positively impact refinancing incentives and portfolio performance [9][13] - The company plans to proactively manage its portfolio and adjust its capital structure to enhance shareholder value through improved performance and earnings [15] Other Important Information - The company raised approximately $9 million of capital through its common ATM program and ended the quarter with $58 million of unrestricted cash [7] - Operating expenses for the quarter were reported at $3.4 million, and dividends were declared for both common and preferred stockholders [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What caused the lower servicing costs this quarter? - Management noted that lower servicing costs were due to deboarding fees from a prior quarter related to the Mr. Cooper acquisition, and a decrease in loan count [24] Question: What is the expectation for leverage moving forward? - Management expects leverage to gradually increase as the year progresses, influenced by economic conditions and potential Fed actions [26][28] Question: Can you provide details on the partnership with RealGenius and its projections? - The partnership is expected to be profitable within the first six to seven months, with dividends anticipated within the first year [33] Question: Are there any updates on the current book value? - The book value per share as of July 31 is expected to remain flat compared to June 30, prior to any third-quarter dividend accrual [39]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The economic book value decreased by 1% to $13.69 per share, while GAAP book value also fell by 1% to $13.12 per share [14] - Distributable earnings (DE) for the quarter were $0.24 per share, down from $0.29 per share in the previous quarter, primarily due to credit losses [17] - GAAP earnings were $33.2 million or $0.22 per basic common share, driven by an increase in net interest income to $61.3 million [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sourced $876 million in loans and securities, including $500 million in non-QM loans and $217 million in business purpose loans [12][20] - The delinquency rate for loans over 60 days decreased from 7.5% to 7.3% [15][24] - Lima One originated $217 million in business purpose loans, with an increase in mortgage banking income from $5.4 million to $6.1 million [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market for securitized mortgage credit assets continues to deepen, with increased liquidity and strong investor appetite [6][9] - Mortgage credit spreads widened in April but retraced to levels seen at the end of Q1 by the end of the second quarter [6][22] - The company completed its eighteenth non-QM securitization in May, selling $291 million of bonds at an average coupon of 5.76% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue focusing on non-QM loans, business purpose loans, and agency securities, with plans to grow the business purpose loan originations [20][23] - The management is optimistic about the economic return potential of the portfolio, indicating that the economic earnings power is closer to a 10% dividend yield [29] - The company is actively resolving non-performing loans and expects to utilize additional loan sales to accelerate the resolution of underperforming assets [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the economic and macro environments appear clearer as the year progresses, with resilient growth despite slower than expected rates [8][9] - There is a consensus for two rate cuts later this year, which is favorable for mortgage REITs [9] - The management expressed confidence in the current earnings power of the portfolio and the sustainability of the common dividend [18] Other Important Information - The company expects to lower its G&A expenses by 7% to 10% per year from 2024 levels due to ongoing expense reduction initiatives [18] - Subsequent to the quarter end, the economic book value is estimated to have increased by approximately 1% to 2% [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Economic return for the portfolio - Management discussed the economic return of the portfolio and indicated that the economic earnings power is much closer to a 10% dividend yield, with potential upside as capital is redeployed from troubled loans [28][29] Question: New loan officers at Lima One - The new hires are focused on the West and Midwest, with expectations for aggressive growth in the latter half of the year as they ramp up [40][41] Question: Capital allocation trends - Management indicated that they would continue to deploy capital across non-QM, HC, and business purpose loans, with a preference for increasing business purpose loan originations [33][49] Question: Distribution potential for new transitional loans - Management noted that they have been selling rental loans and expect to grow originations, with a balance between securitization financing and loan sales [56] Question: Execution risk for developers - Management stated that they are not seeing material pressure on rental income and exit prices, tracking these metrics month to month [65][66] Question: Relative risk of loan vintages - Management indicated that the 2023 vintage for multifamily loans was tougher, but overall LTVs are low, minimizing concerns about losses [67] Question: Callability of non-QM portfolio - Management explained that lower interest rates could lead to more callable deals, but the impact would be marginal due to offsetting swaps [70][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per share decreased by 3% from the prior quarter to $18.45, while earnings available for distribution per share increased by $0.01 to $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [20][21] - The economic return for Q2 was 0.7%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of positive economic returns, with a year-to-date economic return of 3.7% and total shareholder return exceeding 10% [9][20] - The investment portfolio yield increased to 5.41% from 5.23% in the prior quarter, while average repo rates decreased to 4.53% [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency portfolio's market value rose to nearly $80 billion, a 6% increase quarter-over-quarter, with a $4.5 billion growth in notional terms [10][11] - The residential credit portfolio remained stable at $6.6 billion in market value, with Onslow Bay achieving record securitization activity of $3.6 billion across seven transactions [13][14] - The Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) portfolio ended the quarter unchanged at $3.3 billion, with solid performance metrics including a three-month CPR of 4.6% and serious delinquencies unchanged at 50 basis points [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at around 1% annualized for the first half of the year, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [6][8] - Inflation is expected to run at the slowest level in the past three quarters, with the Fed anticipated to deliver two interest rate cuts in 2025 [7][8] - Agency MBS spreads widened by 5 to 10 basis points during the quarter, despite improvements in market sentiment [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong focus on the agency sector while strategically growing its residential credit and MSR portfolios [18] - The management is optimistic about the agency sector fundamentals and potential catalysts for improvement, including GSE reform [12][18] - The company has diversified its funding sources significantly, enhancing liquidity and operational flexibility [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to cover and potentially out-earn the dividend for the remainder of the year, citing a conducive environment for achieving close to the dividend yield [28][29] - The company is well-positioned to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties, with a focus on managing rate risk and maintaining low leverage [34][40] - The outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued strong risk-adjusted returns in the current environment [18][19] Other Important Information - The company raised over $750 million of accretive capital in Q2, predominantly deployed in the agency sector, leading to a modest increase in leverage to 5.8 turns [9][10] - The MSR portfolio's valuation improved modestly due to a steepening yield curve and lower implied volatility [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on book value quarter to date - The pre-dividend accrual book was up about 0.5%, indicating a 1.5% economic return [27] Question: Comfort level with the dividend - Management expressed confidence in covering the dividend, with expectations to out-earn it for the remainder of the year [28] Question: Managing the portfolio through volatility - The company maintained a good liquidity position and managed exposure carefully, allowing leverage to drift higher while focusing on rate risk [33][34] Question: Expectations for GSE reform - Management expects GSE reform to be prioritized, which could create opportunities for the company in the origination space [56] Question: Demand for Agency MBS - Demand from fixed income funds has been strong, with expectations for MBS spreads to tighten even without additional demand from banks [75][76] Question: Outlook for residential credit issuance - The company anticipates robust issuance in the second half of the year, tracking to be the highest since 2021 [81] Question: Impact of tariffs on inflation - Management acknowledged that inflation will pass through due to tariffs, but they remain optimistic about achieving the expected Fed cuts [92][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per share decreased by 3% from the prior quarter to $18.45, while earnings available for distribution per share increased by $0.01 to $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [19][20] - The economic return for Q2 was 0.7%, bringing the year-to-date economic return to 3.7% [7][20] - The net interest spread excluding PAA increased to 1.47% in Q2 compared to 1.24% a year ago, and the net interest margin excluding PAA was 1.71% in Q2 compared to 1.58% in Q2 2024 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency portfolio ended the quarter at nearly $80 billion in market value, up 6% quarter over quarter, with a growth of approximately $4.5 billion in notional terms [9][10] - The residential credit portfolio remained relatively unchanged at $6.6 billion in market value, with Onslow Bay achieving its highest quarterly securitization activity to date, closing $3.6 billion across seven transactions [12][13] - The MSR portfolio ended the quarter unchanged at $3.3 billion in market value, with solid fundamental performance and a three-month CPR of 4.6% [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy is expected to grow around 1% annualized for the first half of the year, with an unemployment rate marginally lowered to 4.1% [5][6] - Inflation is likely to have run at the slowest level in the past three quarters, with the Fed expected to deliver two interest rate cuts in 2025 [6][7] - Agency MBS spreads widened by 5 to 10 basis points on the quarter, despite a positive reversal in sentiment towards risk assets [7][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains optimistic about the agency sector, citing sound fundamentals and potential catalysts for improvement in Agency MBS technicals [11] - The focus is on further building out flow servicing relationships and expanding subservicing and recapture partnerships to capitalize on MSR opportunities [17] - The company plans to strategically grow its residential credit and MSR portfolios while maintaining a flexible investment approach with low leverage and ample liquidity [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macroeconomic environment has shown resilience, with a balanced labor market and muted layoffs, affirming the Fed's wait-and-see stance [5][6] - The company expects to be overweight in agency investments due to historically attractive spread levels, while also anticipating growth in residential credit and MSR portfolios [17] - Management expressed confidence in covering and potentially out-earning the dividend for the remainder of the year, given the current economic return [27][28] Other Important Information - The company raised over $750 million of accretive capital in Q2, predominantly deployed in the agency sector, with leverage increasing modestly to 5.8 turns [8] - The company has diversified its funding sources significantly, with non-mark-to-market capacity growing from $150 million to $1.9 billion [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on book value quarter to date - The book value was up about 0.5% pre-dividend accrual, indicating a 1.5% economic return [26] Question: Comfort level with the dividend - Management expressed confidence in covering the dividend, expecting to out-earn it for the remainder of the year [27][28] Question: Managing the portfolio through volatility - Management was comfortable allowing leverage to rise due to a strong liquidity position and focused on managing rate exposure [32][34] Question: Dynamics of the credit portfolio - The quality of the credit portfolio is high, with proactive measures taken to tighten credit standards [45][46] Question: Expectations for GSE reform - Management expects GSE reform to be prioritized now that the tax bill is completed, which could create opportunities for the company [56] Question: Demand for Agency MBS - Demand from fixed income funds has been strong, and the company expects MBS spreads to tighten even without additional demand from banks [76][77]

Second Quarter 2025 Investor Presentation July 23, 2025 This presentation, other written or oral communications, and our public documents to which we refer contain or incorporate by reference certain forward-looking statements which are based on various assumptions (some of which are beyond our control) and may be identified by reference to a future period or periods or by the use of forward-looking terminology, such as "may," "will," "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "continue," "illustrative" or similar ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR's Q2 GAAP net loss related to common stockholders was $78.6 million, or $0.94 per common share [4] - Net interest income was $33.1 million, while distributable earnings available to common stockholders were $64.9 million, or $0.77 per common share [4] - The quarter ending book value was $16.9 per common share, with an estimated book value of $16.81 as of July 21 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR raised approximately $104.6 million of capital by issuing about 6.3 million shares of common stock through an at-the-market offering program during Q2 [4] - Since June 30, an additional $58.8 million was raised by issuing approximately 3.5 million shares [5] - Monthly common stock dividends were paid at $0.24 per share, totaling $0.72 for the quarter [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was near 6.75% through late June and early July, dampening refinancing activity [10] - MBS to SOFR spreads widened by approximately 10 basis points quarter over quarter, remaining historically cheap [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARMOUR's strategy focuses on growing and deploying capital thoughtfully during spread dislocations while maintaining robust liquidity and dynamically adjusting hedges for disciplined risk management [17] - The company is optimistic about structural demand for MBS improving later in the year due to evolving regulatory clarity and a potential resumption of Fed easing policy [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macro landscape is influenced by U.S. fiscal sustainability, Fed independence, and trade dynamics, which are expected to weigh on the market for some time [8] - The company believes that a resumption of the Fed cutting cycle this year could reignite liquidity flow into agency MBS [9] Other Important Information - ARMOUR's estimated net portfolio duration is closely managed at 0.46 years, with implied leverage at eight turns [12] - The MBS portfolio remains concentrated in production MBS with ROEs in the 18% to 20% range [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Managing spread duration risk during volatility - Management expressed comfort with current leverage levels and noted that spreads remain historically attractive, indicating a potential for modestly increasing leverage [20][21] Question: Allocation to higher coupons and best value in the coupon stack - Management remains favorable towards 5.56 coupons, which are currently modeling the highest ROE, while the allocation to higher coupons has declined due to volatility [25][26] Question: Role of long treasury position within the portfolio - The five-year treasury position is used as part of the hedging strategy and as a proxy for Agency CMBS positions, allowing for tactical adjustments based on spread conditions [28][29] Question: Total expenses after fees waived - Management indicated that the higher expenses were due to increased professional fees and do not expect the same run rate going forward [33] Question: Balancing total return versus carry in the hedge portfolio - Management stated that they are positioned for a bullish steepener and are dynamically adjusting hedges based on macroeconomic views [37][38] Question: Expectations for leverage increase - Management noted that they are comfortable modestly increasing leverage given stable liquidity conditions and attractive spreads, while remaining cautious about making large bets [48][52]

Core Insights - AGNC Investment Corp. is adopting a proactive and defensive portfolio management strategy aimed at long-term growth by frequently adjusting asset allocations and hedging strategies to mitigate risks while seizing yield opportunities [1] Portfolio Management - The company has maintained a robust hedge position, covering 91% of its Investment Securities Repo, TBA positions, and other debt as of March 31, 2025, indicating a strong focus on protecting against interest rate volatility [2] - AGNC has strategically reduced its exposure to more volatile non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and shifted towards higher-coupon Agency MBS, which enhances prepayment probability and supports better cash flow visibility [3] Market Positioning - With spreads between Agency MBS and benchmarks reaching near-pandemic highs in early April 2025, AGNC's $77.9 billion Agency MBS portfolio is well-positioned for compelling forward returns, particularly on a leveraged basis, as these securities are backed by Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) [4] - Despite potential fluctuations in short-term earnings due to market volatility, AGNC's disciplined active management and defensive positioning provide a solid foundation for long-term growth [5] Competitive Landscape - AGNC competes with Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and Starwood Property Trust (STWD) within the mortgage REITs industry, with differing investment approaches among the companies [6] - Annaly pursues a diversified strategy combining traditional Agency MBS with non-agency and credit-sensitive assets, focusing on acquiring newly originated mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) to enhance returns [7] - Starwood focuses primarily on commercial real estate, including commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and real estate debt investments, maintaining steady income through principal repayments and targeted acquisitions [8] Performance Metrics - AGNC shares have gained 6.4% year to date, outperforming the industry's growth of 2.8% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-tangible book ratio of 1.08X, above the industry's average of 0.96X [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AGNC's 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year declines of 11.2% and 3.9%, respectively, with estimates remaining unchanged over the past 30 days [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a neutral stance on basis exposure due to weak near-term demand outlook and macro uncertainties [36]. Core Insights - The demand for conventional MBS is muted, with overseas investors likely holding a similar amount of conventionals and Ginnies, contrary to common assumptions [3][25]. - CMO issuance has significantly increased, representing approximately 34% of MBS issuance year-to-date compared to just 9% in 2020-2021, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9][18]. - The GSEs may expand their investment portfolios, which could bridge the gap until bank demand returns, potentially tightening mortgage basis [30][36]. Market Recap - Rates have rallied sharply due to weak inflation and jobless claims, with CPI and PPI coming in below expectations [10]. - Mortgage spreads have not tightened consistently due to opportunistic buying from marginal buyers, particularly overseas investors [21]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that overseas investors have been quieter this year, impacting the demand side of the equation [21]. - Servicing transfer volumes have decreased, but in-the-money loans tend to have faster speeds post-transfer [9]. - The GSEs' retained portfolios have a significant gap compared to regulatory caps, which could lead to increased investment in mortgages if the GSEs focus on generating earnings [30][31]. Investor Composition - The estimated composition of conventional MBS holders includes 26% Fed, 33% US Banks, 10% Overseas, 27% Money Managers, 1% GSEs, and 3% REITs [27]. - For Ginnie MBS, the composition is 17% Fed, 37% US Banks, 31% Overseas, and 15% Money Managers [29]. CMO Issuance Trends - CMO issuance has averaged $32 billion per month this year, driven by demand for floaters as investors seek to minimize duration risk [18]. - The report notes that CMO issuance levels have decoupled from overall MBS issuance, which remains muted [21]. Regulatory Considerations - Potential changes to LLPAs could tighten the credit box for existing low-credit borrowers, benefiting the prepayment profile of credit-impaired stores [44].

Core Viewpoint - Real estate investment trusts (REITs) can provide significant dividend yields, with AGNC Investment and Healthpeak Properties being highlighted for their monthly dividends, but their sustainability and growth potential differ significantly [1]. Group 1: AGNC Investment - AGNC Investment is a mortgage REIT that invests in Agency MBS, which are protected against credit risk by government agencies, and it employs leverage to enhance returns, resulting in a high monthly dividend yield of 15.7% [3]. - The CEO noted that the outlook for agency MBS investments remains favorable, with potential returns in the low-20% range, which exceeds the company's total cost of capital of approximately 18% [4]. - However, AGNC has previously cut its dividend when returns fell below costs, indicating that it may not be the best option for investors seeking a highly sustainable income stream [5]. Group 2: Healthpeak Properties - Healthpeak Properties is a healthcare REIT with a diversified portfolio that includes outpatient medical, lab, and senior housing properties, providing stable cash flow with contractual annual rental increases [7]. - The REIT's adjusted funds from operations (FFO) have grown by 19% over the past three years, and it expects to generate between $1.81 and $1.87 per share of FFO this year, comfortably covering its $1.22-per-share dividend [9]. - Healthpeak has a strong balance sheet with $500 million to $1 billion available for new investments, and it recently raised its dividend payout by 2%, indicating a capacity for future dividend increases [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a constructive outlook on the mortgage basis and projects a reduction in private market supply, which is expected to be a tailwind for the sector [1][20]. Core Insights - The private market supply for 2025 is projected to be $394 billion, approximately $20 billion lower than previous estimates, which should benefit the sector [1][13]. - The net supply projection for 2025 has been reduced to $200 billion, with gross supply expected to be around $1.15 trillion [3][31]. - Short-term prepayment speeds are expected to decrease in May and June, with a potential increase in July [4][31]. - The production coupon OAS widened to 44 basis points, indicating a shift in market conditions [20]. Summary by Sections Supply Projections - The report revises the net supply projection for 2025 to $200 billion, down from $225 billion, with gross supply expected to be approximately $1.15 trillion [3][31]. - The private market supply is projected to be $394 billion for 2025, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [1][13]. Prepayment and Speed Projections - Prepayment speeds for May are expected to decrease by 3% for conventional loans and by 5% for G2SF, with a projected decline of 4-5% for June [4][31]. - Preliminary projections indicate a potential increase in speeds by 3% in July [4][31]. Market Conditions - The production coupon OAS has widened to 44 basis points, which is above the fair value range of 25-35 basis points, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [20]. - A significant portion of investors (approximately 70%) expect the production coupon basis to tighten by 5-10 basis points in the coming months [20]. Valuation Preferences - The report maintains a preference for 5.5 coupons, indicating a strategic focus on specific segments of the market [24][31].