【导读】多家保险资管机构发声，解析耐心资本2026年配置新变化 12月19日，在由中国基金报主办的"2025资本市场香港论坛"之圆桌讨论环节"耐心资本－保险资金配置新趋势"，与会嘉宾认为，全球市场的不确定性提 升。相较于2025年，2026年资产配置或发生显著变化。作为长期耐心资本的保险资金应重视权益投资，但不放弃固收收益配置。可适度降低风险偏好，更 加注重确定性较高的资产。债券端，可重点关注美国降息周期及中期选举影响；股票方面则需重点留意过去两到三年被显著低估、基本面稳健或正处行业 拐点的投资领域。 以下为圆桌讨论记录： 2026年大类资产配置考量 孙昊：2026年，在大类资产配置方向上，各位有哪些考量？ 张轶：站在当前时点展望2026年，公开市场配置或呈现两大主要变化。 首先，明年公开市场的整体投资回报可能不如今年。权益方面，过去两年来，中美两大市场均经历较充分的估值修复。目前，美国市场已转向盈利驱动。 预计中国内地和香港市场将逐步进入盈利驱动阶段。2026年，权益市场的整体收益率或下降。 其次，过去两年，中美两大市场利率下行。通过布局固定收益，投资者既获得了稳定的票息收益，又斩获了较好的资本利得。202 ...

【导读】多家保险资管机构发声，解析耐心资本 2026 年配置新变化 中国基金报记者 吴娟娟 12 月 19 日，在由中国基金报主办的 "2025 资本市场香港论坛 " 之圆桌讨论环节 " 耐心资 本－保险资金配置新趋势 " ，与会嘉宾认为，全球市场的不确定性提升。相较于 2025 年， 2026 年资产配置或发生显著变化。作为长期耐心资本的保险资金应重视权益投资，但不放弃 固收收益配置。可适度降低风险偏好，更加注重确定性较高的资产。债券端，可重点关注美 国降息周期及中期选举影响；股票方面则需重点留意过去两到三年被显著低估、基本面稳健 或正处行业拐点的投资领域。 本圆桌主持人为保德信全球投资管理董事总经理孙昊。 圆桌嘉宾为： 中国人寿富兰克林资产 管理有限公司行政总裁 闫立罡 以下为圆桌讨论记录： 2026 年大类资产配置考量 孙昊： 2026 年，在大类资产配置方向上，各位有哪些考量？ 张轶： 站在当前时点展望 2026 年，公开市场配置或呈现两大主要变化。 首先，明年公开市场的整体投资回报可能不如今年。权益方面，过去两年来，中美两大市场 均经历较充分的估值修复。目前，美国市场已转向盈利驱动。预计中国内地和香 ...

Summary of the 2026 Year Ahead Outlook for Agency MBS Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) market and its outlook for 2026, influenced by macroeconomic factors, government policies, and Federal Reserve actions. Key Points and Arguments 1. Government Influence and Policy Outlook - The upcoming midterm elections are expected to drive the administration to prioritize housing affordability, potentially leading to lower mortgage rates [1][44] - The Federal Reserve's leadership change may result in a more dovish policy stance, with expectations of three rate cuts in 2026 [1][26] 2. Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - A cautiously optimistic sentiment prevails, with a basis overweight maintained despite anticipated near-term volatility due to policy and prepayment risks [2][49] - Investors are advised to carefully select their positions, particularly favoring the belly of the coupon stack to minimize prepayment risk [4][49] 3. Prepayment Risk - Prepayment speeds are expected to increase, potentially exceeding pandemic levels by 10-15%, driven by various factors including borrower willingness and AI-enhanced lender efficiency [3][49] - Policy risks related to Loan Level Price Adjustments (LLPAs) and alternative credit scores are highlighted as significant uncertainties for 2026 [3][49] 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Projected gross issuance for 2026 is estimated at $1.35 trillion, a 5% increase year-over-year, with net issuance expected to reach $244 billion, an 18% increase [5][49] - Demand is anticipated to be supported by money managers and potential GSE (Government-Sponsored Enterprises) buying, although bank interest may be moderate [5][49] 5. Housing Market and Affordability Initiatives - The administration's focus on housing affordability may lead to initiatives such as declaring a Housing Emergency, which could facilitate regulatory easing and potentially lower mortgage rates [44][47] - Discussions around GSE reform and adjustments to LLPAs are expected to continue, with implications for mortgage affordability and market dynamics [48][49] 6. Investor Survey Insights - The annual investor survey indicates a split sentiment, with 54% of respondents reporting a neutral MBS allocation and 44% overweight, reflecting cautious optimism [50][53] - A significant majority (87%) of respondents expect GSEs to be net buyers in 2026, with many anticipating a Housing Emergency declaration to trigger further buying [60][70] 7. Economic Forecasts - Economic forecasts suggest a stable unemployment rate around 4.5% and a gradual decline in Fed Funds rates to a terminal range of 3.0%-3.25% by the end of 2026 [26][49] - The primary mortgage rate is projected to remain around 6.25%, with expectations of prepayment risk returning at lower rates [89][49] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macro and political drivers in shaping the MBS market in 2026, with potential surprises from government initiatives being a key factor for investors [49][50] - The sentiment around the housing market remains cautious, with a focus on affordability and the potential for regulatory changes impacting supply and demand dynamics [44][49] This comprehensive outlook provides a detailed analysis of the Agency MBS market, highlighting the interplay between government policy, economic conditions, and investor sentiment as key determinants of future performance.

Summary of U.S. Fixed Income Markets 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Fixed Income Markets - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Key Economic Forecasts - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected at 1.8% for 2026, consistent with 2025 pace [5][19] - **Core PCE Inflation**: Expected to moderate slightly to 2.7% [19][28] - **Unemployment Rate**: Anticipated to remain stable at 4.3% [19][25] Interest Rate Expectations - **Federal Reserve Actions**: Anticipated 50 basis points (bp) cuts in January and April 2026 [5][19] - **Treasury Yields**: - 10-year yields expected to rise to 4.25% in Q2 2026 and 4.35% by Q4 2026 [6][19] - 2-year yields projected to remain around 3.51% through mid-year, rising to 3.85% by year-end [18][19] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - **Supply/Demand Imbalance**: Improvement expected in the Treasury market, but spread market technicals may worsen [19][41] - **High-Grade Corporate Spreads**: Forecasted to widen by 15bp to 110bp by year-end 2026 due to heavy supply and weakening credit fundamentals [19][44] - **High-Yield Bond Spreads**: Expected to widen by 30bp to 375bp, with default rates projected at 1.75% [15][19] Sector-Specific Insights - **Agency MBS**: Anticipated to provide modest excess returns despite a projected 5bp widening in OAS [19][28] - **ABS Market**: Expected to remain resilient with stable credit and slightly tighter spreads [11][12] - **CLOs**: Targeting new issue spreads to widen to 130bp, driven by waning exuberance and late-cycle defensiveness [15][46] Risks and Considerations - **Labor Market Risks**: Elevated risks of recession due to cyclical weakening in the labor market [29][30] - **Inflation Risks**: Core inflation expected to remain sticky, complicating the Fed's easing strategy [28][30] - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential impacts from financial deregulation and changes in capital frameworks [38][39] Technical Analysis - **Yield Curve**: Expected to remain range-bound with risks of flattening as the Fed goes on hold [6][19] - **Volatility**: Anticipated decline in shorter-expiry volatility, with longer-expiry volatility expected to increase [37][42] Conclusion - The outlook for the U.S. Fixed Income Markets in 2026 suggests a complex interplay of growth, inflation, and interest rate dynamics, with a focus on maintaining a defensive portfolio amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. The anticipated changes in yields and spreads across various sectors highlight the need for strategic positioning in the evolving market landscape.

November 24, 2025 12:33 PM GMT CROSS-ASSET STRATEGY CROSS-ASSET STRATEGY Cross-Asset Strategy With max policy uncertainty behind us, 'micro' stories like AI financing take the spotlight. Global credit markets of all genres – unsecured, secured, securitized, structured, both public and private – will have an increasing role to play in enabling AI-related financing, which in turn leads to differentiated performance within credit. Allocation: Stocks > Bonds, US > RoW A pro-cyclical policy mix lifts equities, p ...

Core Viewpoint - The article compares two high-yielding mortgage REITs, AGNC Investment and Starwood Property Trust, highlighting the differences in their investment strategies and risk profiles, with Starwood being presented as a more stable option for income investors. Group 1: AGNC Investment - AGNC Investment offers a high dividend yield of over 14%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% yield [1] - The REIT primarily invests in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are low-risk but also yield lower returns [3] - AGNC uses leverage to enhance returns, achieving a return on equity of around 17% in the third quarter, aligning with its cost of capital [4] - The REIT has a history of dividend cuts, reducing its payment from $0.22 per share in 2014 to $0.12 per share currently, with the last cut occurring in 2020 [6] Group 2: Starwood Property Trust - Starwood Property Trust has a diversified portfolio, with 53% in commercial real estate loans, 9% in residential loans, and 10% in infrastructure-backed loans, providing stable interest income [7] - The REIT also invests directly in properties, generating stable and steadily rising rental income [9] - Starwood's recent acquisition of Fundamental Income Properties for $2.2 billion enhances its diversification and is expected to provide stable cash flow with a 17-year average lease term and a 2.2% annual lease escalation rate [10] - Starwood has maintained a stable dividend rate for over a decade without any reductions, making it a reliable income source [11] Group 3: Investment Strategy Comparison - AGNC's focused investment strategy allows for high returns but carries more risk, as evidenced by its declining dividend history [13] - In contrast, Starwood's diversified investment strategy reduces risk and provides flexibility to adapt to market conditions, allowing it to capitalize on various investment opportunities [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25 [20] - Economic return for Q3 was 8.1%, bringing the year-to-date economic return to 11.5% [20][21] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [22] - Average yields improved to 5.46% from 5.41% in the prior quarter, with net interest spread ex-PAA increasing to 1.5% [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter-over-quarter, with total growth of $7.8 billion [9] - Residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with average yields rising to 6.29% [11][22] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment [5] - Inflation remained elevated near 3%, with a modest impact from higher tariffs on goods inflation [6] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, generating a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [18] - Focus on maintaining high credit quality in residential credit and leveraging proprietary assets through the correspondent channel [15] - The company is positioned to benefit from expected Fed cuts and healthy fixed income demand [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the agency sector despite tighter spreads, citing improved fundamentals and technicals [26] - The outlook for the residential credit business is positive, with expectations for continued growth in the private label market [18] - Management remains cautious about taking on additional rate risk given current market uncertainties [56] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program [8] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased slightly due to lower mortgage rates, but cash flows remain stable [16] - The company has $7.4 billion in unencumbered assets, including $5.9 billion in cash and Agency MBS [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management indicated that agency investments remain attractive despite tighter spreads, with expectations for increased demand from banks and REITs [26][27] Question: MSR bulk supply and pricing - Management noted that bulk supply has increased from large participants, with stable pricing throughout the year [29] Question: Breakdown of agency returns - Management provided insights on the spread to swaps versus treasuries, indicating a blended yield of about 160 basis points [33] Question: Book value performance - Management reported a 1% increase in book value pre-dividend accrual, translating to a 1.5% to 2% economic return [35] Question: Prepayment protection in the OBX portfolio - Management highlighted that the OBX portfolio has shown slower prepayment speeds than anticipated, benefiting from prepayment penalties [82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25, achieving an economic return of 8.1% for Q3 and 11.5% year-to-date [20][21] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [22] - The average yield improved to 5.46% from 5.41% in the prior quarter, while the average repo rate improved by three basis points to 4.5% [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter-over-quarter, with total growth of $7.8 billion [9][10] - The residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with significant contributions from securitization and loan purchases [11][12] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion, with stable cash flows and low delinquency rates [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, despite elevated inflation near 3% [5][6] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month, leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate [7] - Interest rate volatility declined, benefiting the company's portfolio by lowering convexity costs [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, generating a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [19] - The investment strategies are positioned for the balance of the year, with expectations of declining macro volatility and additional Fed cuts [18] - The company aims to increase its residential credit and MSR weightings to a combined 40% [27][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a positive outlook for the agency sector, citing improved demand dynamics and expectations for regulatory reform [17][18] - The company remains cautious about taking on additional rate risk, preferring to maintain a stable duration profile amid market uncertainties [56][59] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining high credit quality in the residential credit portfolio, especially in light of softer housing market conditions [15] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program [8] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased modestly due to lower mortgage rates, but the portfolio remains well insulated [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management noted that despite tighter spreads, the agency sector remains attractive due to improved fundamentals and technicals [26] Question: Bulk supply and pricing for MSR - The bulk supply has increased from large participants, with stable pricing encouraging future bulk supply [29] Question: Breakdown of agency returns - The spread to swaps versus treasuries is around 35 to 40 basis points, with low realized volatility aiding hedging costs [33] Question: Outlook for mortgage spreads and securitization - Non-QM issuance is expected to grow, with the market penetration of non-QM loans increasing significantly [47][49] Question: Duration risk and portfolio management - The company is currently maintaining a close-to-zero duration gap due to market uncertainties, with a cautious approach to taking on additional rate risk [56][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25, achieving an economic return of 8.1% for Q3 and 11.5% year to date [19][20] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [20] - The average yield improved to 5.46% compared to 5.41% in the prior quarter, while the average repo rate improved by three basis points to 4.5% [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter over quarter, with total growth of $7.8 billion [10] - The residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with new origination non-QM AAA spreads tightening by 15 basis points [12] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion, with stable cash flows and unchanged serious delinquencies at 50 basis points [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth likely on pace with Q2, supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment [6] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month, while inflation remained elevated near 3% [6][7] - The agency MBS market saw improved supply and demand dynamics, with fixed income fund inflows more than 50% higher than the average over the past few quarters [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, which has generated a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [17] - The focus remains on maintaining a high credit quality portfolio and leveraging proprietary assets through the correspondent channel [14] - The company is positioned to benefit from expected Fed cuts and a healthy fixed income demand, with plans to increase allocations to residential credit and MSR [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a positive outlook, highlighting the benefits of declining macro volatility and anticipated Fed cuts [16] - The company remains flexible in the current investing climate with historically low leverage and significant liquidity [18] - Concerns about the housing market were noted, with expectations of modest cumulative depreciation due to elevated mortgage rates [14] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of accretive equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program [9] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased modestly due to lower mortgage rates, but the portfolio remains well insulated [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management indicated that agency investments remain attractive despite tighter spreads, with expectations for increased demand from banks and overseas participants [26][27] Question: MSR bulk supply and pricing - The bulk supply has increased from large participants, with stable pricing throughout the year, encouraging future bulk supply [29][30] Question: Agency returns breakdown - The spread to swaps versus treasuries is around 35 to 40 basis points, with low realized volatility aiding hedging costs [35][36] Question: MSR purchase strategy - The company prefers lower note rate MSRs to mitigate negative convexity risk, with a focus on maintaining a diversified portfolio [46][48] Question: Outlook for mortgage spreads and securitization - Management expects stable mortgage spreads to support continued market activity, with NonQM market penetration increasing [51][54] Question: Duration risk and portfolio management - The company is currently maintaining a close to zero duration gap due to market uncertainty, with plans to manage risks carefully [62][66] Question: GSEs' potential impact on the market - Speculation exists regarding GSEs becoming more active buyers, but the market has strong demand from REITs and fixed income funds [70][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25, achieving an economic return of 8.1% for Q3 2025 and 11.5% year-to-date [19][20] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [20] - The average yield improved to 5.46% from 5.41% in the prior quarter, while the average repo rate improved by three basis points to 4.5% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter-over-quarter, with a total growth of $7.8 billion [8][19] - The residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with significant contributions from new securitizations [10][11] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion, with stable cash flows and low delinquency rates [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, despite elevated inflation near 3% [4][5] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month, leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate [5] - The agency MBS market saw improved supply and demand dynamics, with fixed income fund inflows over 50% higher than average [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, focusing on agency MBS, residential credit, and MSR, which has generated a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [16][18] - The outlook remains positive, with expectations of additional Fed cuts and healthy fixed income demand supporting investment strategies [17][18] - The company aims to increase its residential credit and MSR weightings to a combined 40% in the near term [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macro environment is expected to remain stable, with declining volatility and a favorable technical backdrop for agency MBS [16][17] - The company is cautious about taking on additional rate risk, preferring to maintain a close-to-zero duration gap due to market uncertainties [50][52] - The management expressed confidence in the stability of earnings available for distribution, supported by a strong swap portfolio and low leverage [60][67] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program, and reopened the mortgage REIT preferred market [6][7] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased slightly due to lower mortgage rates, but the portfolio remains well insulated with stable cash flows [14][15] - A new partnership with PennyMac Financial Services was announced, enhancing the company's servicing capabilities [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management indicated that agency investments remain attractive despite tighter spreads, with expectations for increased demand from banks and REITs as the Fed continues to cut rates [25][26] Question: Bulk supply and pricing of MSR - The bulk supply of MSR has increased by 50%, primarily from large participants, with stable pricing throughout the year [27] Question: Breakdown of agency returns - The spread to swaps versus treasuries is around 35 to 40 basis points, with a blended yield of about 160 basis points, indicating a favorable risk-return profile [30] Question: Prepayment protection in specified pools - Management discussed the advantages of specified pools for prepayment protection, emphasizing their long-term options and favorable convexity profiles [34][35] Question: Outlook for mortgage spreads and securitization - The company expects continued activity in the non-QM market, with stable mortgage spreads allowing for growth despite seasonal pressures [42][43] Question: Duration risk and leverage - Management confirmed a cautious approach to duration risk, maintaining a close-to-zero duration gap while evaluating opportunities for future leverage [50][52] Question: Stability of NII and dividend coverage - The company expressed confidence in maintaining stable NII levels and ensuring dividend coverage, supported by a strong hedge ratio [58][67]