联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] AI 投资泡沫化了吗？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期海外四大云厂商披露季报显示其对 CapEx 的投入仍在加码，OpenAI 大规模算力布局与当 前 AI 投入的呈现出规模不经济引发担忧，与此同时美国宏观经济层面出现政府停摆等不确定 性因素，共同加重市场对 AI 投入泡沫化的讨论与担忧。从当前 AI 叙事来看，大模型巨头正围 绕操作系统与流量入口开启全面军备竞赛，一方面 OpenAI 的变现能力正在逐步体现，另一方 面预计 2026 年 Big5 经营状况依旧健康，此外从 Amazon 云计算投入复盘历程看，超前 Capex 并非经营风险，而是先行布局的必然代价，因此我们认为阶段性扰动无需担忧。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 宗建树 于海宁 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUW100 ...

Responses API Overview - OpenAI introduced the Responses API to evolve beyond the Chat Completions API, addressing design limitations and enabling new functionalities for building agentic applications [1] - The Responses API combines the simplicity of chat completions with the ability to perform more agentic tasks, simplifying workflows like tool use, code execution, and state management [1] - The core of the Responses API is an agentic loop, allowing multiple actions within a single API request, unlike Chat Completions which only allows one model sample per request [2] - The Responses API uses "items" for everything, including messages, function calls, and MCP calls, making coding easier compared to Chat Completions where function calling was bolted onto messages [2] - The Responses API is purpose-built for reasoning models, preserving reasoning from request to request, boosting tool calling performance by 5% in primary tool calling eval tobench [2] - The Responses API facilitates multimodal workflows, making it easier to work with images and other multimodal content, including support for context stuffing with files like PDFs [2] - Streaming is rethought in the Responses API, emitting a finite number of strongly typed events, simplifying development compared to Chat Completions' object deltas [2] - Long multi-turn rollouts with the Responses API are 20% faster and less expensive due to the ability to rehydrate context from request to request, preserving the chain of thought [2] Agent Platform and Tools - OpenAI is changing deployment with its agent platform, centering on the Responses API and Agents SDK for building embeddable, customizable UIs [3] - Agent Builder and Chatkit, built on the Responses API, make it easy to build workflows into applications with minimal effort [3] - The Responses API is at the core of the improvement flywheel, enabling distillation and reinforcement fine-tuning using stateful data, along with tools like web search and file search [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic semiconductor substitution due to escalating trade frictions and export controls, particularly from the U.S. government, which may lead to a comprehensive upgrade of semiconductor export controls against China [10][11] - OpenAI is actively building a computing power ecosystem through significant partnerships with major chip manufacturers, including AMD and Samsung, to secure a steady supply of AI chips and enhance its data center capabilities [12][13] - Breakthroughs in solid-state lithium batteries and nuclear fusion technology are reported, indicating advancements in energy storage and generation that could impact the energy sector significantly [13][14] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. House of Representatives has proposed comprehensive export controls on semiconductor equipment to China, which could accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's self-sufficiency and substitution efforts [10] - Recent announcements from the U.S. government regarding export controls on rare earths and other critical materials indicate a deep penetration into global supply chains, further emphasizing the need for domestic alternatives [10] AI Industry - OpenAI's recent developer conference showcased significant user engagement and the introduction of new models and tools, indicating a shift towards making ChatGPT an AI operating system [12] - OpenAI's partnerships with major companies like AMD and Hitachi are aimed at enhancing its computing infrastructure, with investments in AI-specific transformers and cooling systems to support new data centers [12][13] Energy Sector - Significant advancements in solid-state lithium battery technology and nuclear fusion are reported, with potential implications for energy efficiency and sustainability [13][14] - The BEST project in China aims to demonstrate nuclear fusion energy generation by 2030, marking a pivotal moment in energy technology [13][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on emerging industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, which are expected to benefit from domestic substitution policies and technological advancements [14] - Attention is drawn to the AI industry, particularly in areas of computing power performance and energy efficiency, as well as the evolution of edge AI and embodied intelligence [14]

Core Insights - OpenAI is advancing its strategy to build a comprehensive AI ecosystem centered around ChatGPT, aiming to create a "super system" rather than just a "super app" [4][12][17] - The company has made significant investments in computing power, estimated to be close to $1 trillion, to support the evolution and application of large models [3][4] - The newly introduced "Apps in ChatGPT" feature aims to integrate traditional applications with AI assistants, although its current capabilities are still limited [5][8][11] Group 1: Strategic Developments - OpenAI's strategy involves three interdependent AI infrastructures: substantial investment in computing resources, development of powerful model families, and the creation of an AI application ecosystem centered on ChatGPT [3][13] - The CEO, Sam Altman, highlighted that ChatGPT's user growth and engagement exceeded expectations, providing a competitive advantage due to the slow response from tech giants [2][3] Group 2: Apps in ChatGPT - Initial partners for the "Apps in ChatGPT" feature include Booking.com, Canva, and Spotify, with plans to reveal monetization details for developers later this year [5][11] - Current functionality of the "Apps in ChatGPT" is limited to basic operations, lacking the ability to perform more complex tasks [8][11] - Altman emphasized the importance of maintaining a direct and transparent connection between users and original services, even if it compromises user experience slightly [12][17] Group 3: AI Assistant Evolution - ChatGPT is positioned as a central AI assistant, with all interactions and tools designed around it, suggesting a shift from traditional browsing to AI-driven interactions [13][14] - The future of AI assistants may involve a clearer distinction between the roles of AI assistants and browsers, with AI assistants taking a more proactive role [14][15] - OpenAI's vision includes the development of a comprehensive account system that understands user preferences and manages privacy, ultimately leading to a universal AI tool [17][18]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: AI and Video Generation - **Company**: OpenAI and its product Sora 2.0 Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Launch of New Tools**: OpenAI introduced new tools such as APP, SDK, Agent Kit, and Chat Kit at the developer conference, showcasing a clear blueprint for its commercial empire [2][3][6] 2. **Partnerships**: OpenAI has partnered with 11 well-known companies, including Uber and TripAdvisor, to enhance user experience through natural language interactions via ChatGPT [1][3] 3. **MCP Protocol**: The standardization of the MCP protocol allows large model companies like OpenAI to quickly connect with product service providers, enabling advanced applications beyond traditional data interactions [5][6] 4. **Agent Kit Efficiency**: The Agent Kit allows non-IT developers to create applications easily, improving productivity by over 20 times, with over 50% of programs and 75% of code being AI-generated in leading internet companies [8][10] 5. **Code X and AGI**: Code X is a set of advanced tools aimed at preparing for general artificial intelligence (AGI) by enabling self-coding to solve problems [11][12] 6. **Sora 2.0 Focus**: Sora 2.0 aims to address practical issues in the film and animation workflow, collaborating with Shutterstock for high-quality video data [13][14] 7. **Market Positioning**: Sora 2.0 targets professional creators rather than general users, differentiating itself from platforms like TikTok by requiring a higher level of creative ability [15][22] 8. **Technical Innovations**: Sora 2.0 employs unique training methods to generate longer videos and emphasizes audio synchronization and realism [16] 9. **Cost and Computational Challenges**: Current challenges include high costs for video generation (0.7 to 3 yuan per second) and computational limitations, although efforts are being made to optimize models and reduce prices [17] 10. **Competitive Landscape**: Sora 2 faces competition from other video generation tools like Keling and Jimu, with pricing and user experience being key factors [27][28] 11. **Future Trends**: The video generation technology has significant potential in education and healthcare, allowing for efficient content creation and resource optimization [21][29] 12. **Impact on B2B Software**: Large model companies may impact B2B software firms by simplifying development processes, pushing these firms to modularize their offerings to integrate into larger ecosystems [35][36] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **User Engagement**: OpenAI aims to cultivate user habits to become a primary entry point for AI services, indicating a strategic focus on user dependency [34] 2. **Evolving Market Dynamics**: The rapid evolution of AI tools suggests a future where more companies will need to adapt to new technologies and user expectations [19][24] 3. **Long-term Viability**: The competitive landscape is expected to remain dynamic, with multiple players vying for market share, indicating a potential for cyclical competition among similar products [28][30]

Internal AI Application Strategy - Focus on amplifying expertise with AI, not just driving efficiency, by capturing and distributing the knowledge of top performers across the organization [4][5][6] - Internal applications can significantly improve a company's agility and impact, potentially by 10x [4][7] - Building internal AI tools should be integrated into existing workflows and systems, ensuring ease of use and feedback [68] - Encourage a sprint-based approach: identify top operators, build within familiar tools, and leverage scalable platforms like Agent Kit [67][68][69] Go-to-Market Assistant (Sales) - The Go-to-Market Assistant enables sales representatives to deliver optimal customer engagement by providing quick customer research and technical answers [14][20] - By implementing the Go-to-Market Assistant, sales representatives reported saving one full day per week, which they can now dedicate to higher-value tasks [35] - The Go-to-Market Assistant exchanges approximately 20 messages per week with each sales representative [35] Openhouse (People/HR) - Openhouse helps employees quickly understand company operations by centralizing access to information on policies, announcements, and personnel [39][40] - Approximately 75% of employees use Openhouse every week, indicating high adoption and utility [53] Support System - The support system autonomously handles or deflects approximately 70% of support tickets [62] - The new support system outperforms the legacy system by approximately 30% [62] - Approximately 80% of tickets handled by the automated system are rated as highly positive by a QA team [63]

Agent Kit Features & Benefits - Agent Kit helps developers create agents faster than ever before by visually wiring nodes instead of starting with code [1][3] - Agent Kit provides pre-built tools like file search, guard rails, and human-in-the-loop, enabling developers to model complex workflows easily [4] - Agent Kit allows for customization using widgets, enhancing the user experience beyond plain text [6][23] - Agent Kit includes pre-built guardrails for security, protecting against hallucinations and blocking PII [11][12] - Agent Kit facilitates testing and evaluation of agents directly from the builder to ensure expected behavior before deployment [16] Deployment & Integration - Agent Kit enables fully deployed and published agents in production with a workflow ID for direct execution [17] - Agent Kit offers code export for running agents in custom environments [17] - Agent Kit allows for easy integration into existing websites using components and visual customization [19][20] - Changes to agents can be deployed directly to the site without requiring code modifications [22] Use Case: Devday Website Agent - An agent powered by Agent Kit was built and deployed within the Devday website in under eight minutes to assist users in navigating the event [2][22]

Group 1: Chip Collaboration - OpenAI and AMD have signed a multi-billion dollar chip deal to co-develop AI data centers based on AMD processors [1] - OpenAI commits to purchasing AI chips worth 6 gigawatts based on multiple generations of AMD Instinct GPUs [1] - The partnership aims to deepen collaboration on hardware and software since the MI300X and MI350X series, starting with the MI450 series [1] Group 2: Model Development - DeepSeek has released the experimental model DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, which introduces Sparse Attention for improved training and inference efficiency on long texts [2] - The model development utilized TileLang, an open-source AI operator programming language developed by a team from Peking University [2] - Huawei Cloud and Cambricon announced Day0 adaptation for DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, supporting a maximum context length of 160K [2] Group 3: Application Advancements - OpenAI launched the next-generation video generation model Sora2, enhancing realistic video effects and adding audio generation capabilities [3] - The Dev Day event introduced several platform-level tools, including Apps SDK, Agent Kit, and Codex, aimed at creating a closed loop for development, distribution, and monetization [3] - Apps SDK allows developers to build interactive applications within ChatGPT, while Agent Kit focuses on backend development efficiency [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas such as AI computing power, applications, physical AI, AIGC, and anti-generative AI [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the AI industry, including a multi-billion dollar chip deal between OpenAI and AMD, which aims to enhance AI data center capabilities [11][22] - The introduction of the DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model marks a step towards next-generation architecture, optimizing long text training and inference efficiency [12][22] - OpenAI's release of the Sora2 video generation model and various platform-level tools further strengthens its ecosystem, allowing developers to create interactive applications within ChatGPT [13][22] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Insights - OpenAI and AMD have signed a chip deal worth hundreds of billions, with OpenAI committing to purchase AI chips valued at 6 gigawatts based on AMD's technology [11] - The partnership aims to deepen collaboration on multiple generations of hardware and software, starting with the AMD Instinct MI450 series [11] 2. Model Developments - The DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model introduces a sparse attention mechanism, enhancing training and inference for long texts [12] - The model's development utilized TileLang, an open-source AI programming language, to optimize code generation [12] 3. Application Advancements - OpenAI's Sora2 model improves video realism and adds audio generation capabilities, allowing users to create personalized video content [13] - The launch of the Apps SDK and Agent Kit during OpenAI's Dev Day enhances the development of interactive applications and AI agents [13] 4. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI computing, applications, physical AI, AIGC, and anti-generative AI sectors [14] - Specific areas of interest include chips, servers, data centers, and various B-end applications [14]

Core Insights - OpenAI's CEO announced that ChatGPT's weekly active users have surpassed 800 million, doubling from 400 million in February, and the developer community has expanded from 2 million to 4 million [4][23] - The company is transitioning from a "model provider" to a "full-stack AI ecosystem builder," aiming to redefine AI interactions for developers, businesses, and users [1][27] - OpenAI introduced several platform-level tools and product updates, including Apps SDK, Agent Kit, and Codex, along with significant upgrades to its model API, including GPT-5 Pro and the video generation model Sora 2 [1][20] Apps SDK - The newly launched Apps SDK allows developers to build applications directly within ChatGPT, creating an ecosystem similar to Apple's App Store [5][11] - This SDK enables developers to connect their data and trigger specific actions, providing a seamless user experience without switching between devices [5][6] - Interactive applications from companies like Booking.com, Expedia, and Spotify have already been launched using this SDK [5][23] Agent Kit - Agent Kit addresses the fragmentation of tools in AI agent development, streamlining the process of creating autonomous task executors [12][15] - It includes three core components: Agent Builder for visual design, ChatKit for customizable chat interfaces, and Evals for performance assessment [13][14] - The tool has demonstrated significant efficiency improvements, allowing complex agents to be built in hours instead of months [17] Codex - Codex has transitioned from research preview to formal release, focusing on enhancing support for enterprise and engineering teams [18] - Key features include integration with Slack, a Codex SDK for embedding intelligent agents, and new management tools for better oversight [18][19] - Codex has processed 40 trillion tokens since its launch, indicating strong market demand [18] Model API Upgrades - The GPT-5 Pro model has been officially released, offering significant improvements in reasoning, code quality, and user experience [21] - Sora 2, the upgraded video generation model, is now available for API preview, allowing developers to integrate advanced video capabilities into their products [21][22] Market Impact - The announcements from OpenAI have led to notable stock price movements for companies like Figma, which saw a peak increase of nearly 16% [23] - The market reaction reflects a broader trend where any association with OpenAI can drive stock prices, reminiscent of past tech market behaviors [26] Hardware Development - OpenAI is collaborating with former Apple designer Jony Ive to develop multiple hardware products aimed at enhancing user experience and emotional well-being [27][28] - The hardware is expected to focus on social effects rather than just efficiency, with designs intended to foster a more positive interaction between users and devices [27][28]