文 | 窄播，作者 | 李威 上周的2025百度世界大会和本周刚刚发布的第三季度财报，让我们有了一个通盘观察百度业务变化的机 会。 从财报数据上，可以看到百度在营收上继续呈现出一进一退的态势。一方面，百度第三季度的AI业务 收入同比增长超50%，其中，智能云基础设施收入为42亿元，AI应用收入为26亿元，AI原生营销服务收 入为28亿元，同比增长262%。AI原生营销服务包括智能体和数字人。 这也就意味着，作为入口存在的AI搜索，依然是决定百度业务走向的最大变量。在线营销收入的下降 源自百度搜索对流量分配能力的丧失。这种能力的丧失一部分是受到了抖音、快手、小红书、微信等平 台的挤压，另一部分，则是转型AI搜索需要付出的代价。 另一方面，百度第三季度的总营收与核心收入都同比下降了7%。这很大程度上是受到了在线营销收入 减少的影响。财报显示，百度在线营销收入153亿元，仍占到总营收的近一半，但同比下降了18%。从 2024年开始，百度的在线营销收入连续多个季度处于下滑状态。 当流量分配能力不再强势，百度需要为自己的入口地位寻找新的支撑。从搜索引擎到AI引擎的变化背 后，是百度在尝试成为AI时代的任务实现中枢。百度 ...

Core Insights - OpenAI is advancing its strategy to build a comprehensive AI ecosystem centered around ChatGPT, aiming to create a "super system" rather than just a "super app" [4][12][17] - The company has made significant investments in computing power, estimated to be close to $1 trillion, to support the evolution and application of large models [3][4] - The newly introduced "Apps in ChatGPT" feature aims to integrate traditional applications with AI assistants, although its current capabilities are still limited [5][8][11] Group 1: Strategic Developments - OpenAI's strategy involves three interdependent AI infrastructures: substantial investment in computing resources, development of powerful model families, and the creation of an AI application ecosystem centered on ChatGPT [3][13] - The CEO, Sam Altman, highlighted that ChatGPT's user growth and engagement exceeded expectations, providing a competitive advantage due to the slow response from tech giants [2][3] Group 2: Apps in ChatGPT - Initial partners for the "Apps in ChatGPT" feature include Booking.com, Canva, and Spotify, with plans to reveal monetization details for developers later this year [5][11] - Current functionality of the "Apps in ChatGPT" is limited to basic operations, lacking the ability to perform more complex tasks [8][11] - Altman emphasized the importance of maintaining a direct and transparent connection between users and original services, even if it compromises user experience slightly [12][17] Group 3: AI Assistant Evolution - ChatGPT is positioned as a central AI assistant, with all interactions and tools designed around it, suggesting a shift from traditional browsing to AI-driven interactions [13][14] - The future of AI assistants may involve a clearer distinction between the roles of AI assistants and browsers, with AI assistants taking a more proactive role [14][15] - OpenAI's vision includes the development of a comprehensive account system that understands user preferences and manages privacy, ultimately leading to a universal AI tool [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies on global society, suggesting that a proactive approach to shaping the future is essential for creating a better world. Group 1: Mirror World - By 2049, most smartphones will be replaced by smart glasses, creating a "mirror world" where reality and virtuality overlap [7] - The mirror world will represent the next generation of the internet, enabling immersive experiences powered by AI [7] - Companies providing data support for the mirror world will become the largest and wealthiest globally [7] - Immersive experiences will become commonplace, leading to an explosion of content and unique experiences shared by users [7] - Real experiences will become more precious as virtual experiences become more accessible [7] - Individuals will need to balance personalization and privacy in the mirror world [8] Group 2: Human-Machine Interaction - The relationship between humans and AI will be collaborative, with humans participating in AI operations rather than AI acting independently [9] - AI will not think like humans, and interactions with AI should not be based on human standards [10] - AI will take time to permeate various industries, requiring a decade or more for significant changes [11] - By 2049, everyone will have AI assistants akin to personal secretaries, integrated into smart glasses or wearables [12] - AI assistants will function similarly to operating systems, facilitating B2B interactions through bots [10] Group 3: Workplace Challenges - The future will see a "human + machine" model where machines enhance efficiency, allowing humans to focus on less efficient, innovative tasks [15] - Many blue-collar jobs requiring technical skills will still need human workers, potentially with higher wages [16] - Middle management will be most affected by AI, as their roles can be easily replaced by AI systems [18] - Organizational structures will become flatter, with AI taking over tasks like reporting and budgeting [18] - AI will enhance performance transparency, making peer evaluations more common [20] Group 4: Business Opportunities - The next 25 years will see significant advancements in AI, digital governance, and organizational change [28] - AI will be dominated by major players, with entry barriers for startups being high [29] - The most promising sectors will be those that deeply integrate with cutting-edge technologies [33] - Customization and personalization will be key trends, driven by comprehensive data collection [34] Group 5: Content Explosion - The next 25 years will witness a content explosion, continuing the trend of information proliferation and personalized creation [41] - AI will significantly impact the publishing industry, enabling personalized content recommendations [42] - Future books will be interconnected, forming a comprehensive repository of human knowledge [43] - The film industry will be disrupted, allowing individuals to create their own films easily [44] Group 6: Education Development - Personalized education will become widespread due to AI, transforming traditional educational models [50] - Experience-based learning will gain importance, utilizing VR/AR technologies [52] - Non-linear, highly virtualized learning experiences will become common in universities [53] - Lifelong learning will be essential, with a focus on effective learning methods [56] Group 7: Customized Healthcare - The mirror world will drive the growth of personalized medicine through digital twins [62] - Quantifying personal health data will be fundamental to customized healthcare [63] - 3D pill machines will enable the creation of tailored medications for individuals [64] - AI doctors will assist human doctors in diagnosing and treating patients [68] Group 8: Technological Explosions - Five key areas will experience significant breakthroughs: robotics, autonomous driving, space exploration, life sciences, and brain-computer interfaces [72] - The future will see the rise of unmanned factories, transforming traditional manufacturing [73] - Electric vehicles will dominate the market, with China emerging as a leading manufacturer [75] - Space exploration will focus on Mars, with potential human habitation [81]