一水 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 掌权苹果14年的库克，正在进入退休倒计时！ 金融时报最新爆料，这家公司正在加快其CEO换届步伐—— 现任CEO库克最早将于明年退休 ，而最有可能接棒的人是John Ternus （苹果现任硬件工程高级副总裁） 。 老实说，库克退位这事儿也不是第一天传出了。 上个月初，外媒就曝出苹果正筹划十多年来最大规模的领导层换届。而此前一度被公认为是库克继任者的COO威廉姆斯 （库克接棒乔布斯时 就是COO） ，当时就被爆料已于今年7月卸任，并将于年底离开苹果。 而随着威廉姆斯的正式"出局"，John Ternus的名字其实就已经开始被更频繁地提起。 所以说，如果这次"库克加快让位"的爆料属实 （截至目前苹果未回应相关置评请求） ，那只能说明一件事—— 苹果是真的急了 。 也正因如此，此轮关于"库克接班人"的讨论，看起来声势也似乎远超以往。 就连一个随机发起的投票 （你认为John Ternus能接棒乔布斯库克吗？） ，都瞬间引来大量围观和讨论。 所以，John Tenus到底是谁？他真的能接棒库克吗？ 头号种子选手：John Tenus John Tenus，苹果现任 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业深度报告 苹果迎产品创新周期大年，技术创新驱动销量增长 ---投资果链相关公司的两种视角 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 产品矩阵全面焕新，业绩增长显示苹果韧性。2025 年 9 月苹果秋季新品 发布会推出 iPhone、Apple Watch、AirPods 系列新品，其中 iPhone 首次 推出 Air 系列，iPhone17 Pro/Pro Max 搭载 8 倍光学变焦长焦镜头，Apple Watch 全系支持 5G 网络，AirPods Pro 3 强化降噪与健康监测功能；财 务层面，FY2025 苹果营收达 4161.61 亿美元同比增长 6.43%，毛利率与 净利率整体稳定，各类产品中 iPhone 仍为主要营收来源，FY2025 同比 增长 4.18%。 Apple Intelligence 通过软硬件深度协同实现落地，驱动硬件全面升级。 Apple Intelligence 深度嵌入系统内部，聚焦效率提升且注重保护用户隐 私。目前已推出即时翻译、视觉智能、图像创作等多种功能，预计 AI 功 能将会通过付费模式为服务业务带来新增量。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Companies Involved - **Industry**: Robotics and Automotive - **Companies**: Apple Inc., Rivian Automotive, Inc., Tesla Inc. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Apple's Robotics Initiatives**: - Apple is shifting towards robotics, leveraging a decade of R&D in autonomy and machine learning from Project Titan, which is associated with autonomous driving technology. The company has a vertically integrated ecosystem with over 2.3 billion devices, providing significant visual and sensory data. The potential revenue upside is estimated at approximately $290 billion by 2040, translating to about $64 per share. Key catalysts include the re-launch of Apple Intelligence and Siri in Spring 2026, potential AI/robotics partnerships or M&A, and the debut of a home robot in 2027 [5][6][11]. 2. **Rivian's New Robotics Venture**: - Rivian announced the launch of Mind Robotics, a spinoff company focused on AI-enabled robotics for various industrial applications. This initiative was supported by $110 million in external seed capital. Rivian's founder, RJ Scaringe, will chair the board of Mind Robotics. This marks Rivian's second spinoff in 2025, following the launch of their micromobility business, ALSO, which has already introduced electric bikes and quadricycles [5][6][11]. 3. **Market Trends in Robotics**: - The automotive industry is expected to increasingly highlight their robotic capabilities in investor communications, especially as generative AI transforms traditional automation and manufacturing processes. The industry has a history of capitalizing on market trends, and the current focus is shifting towards AI and robotics [5][6][11]. Additional Important Content 1. **Tesla's Stock Performance**: - Tesla's stock rating is currently "Overweight" with a price target of $410. The stock closed at $445.91 on November 6, 2025. The market capitalization is approximately $1.57 trillion. The estimated EPS for the fiscal year ending December 2024 is $2.41, with projections of $1.58 for 2025 and $2.61 for 2026 [3][12]. 2. **Investment Risks**: - For Apple, risks include weak consumer spending affecting iPhone upgrade rates and limited progress on AI features. For Rivian, risks are associated with execution mishaps and competition from legacy OEMs and new entrants. Tesla faces risks related to market recognition of its services and potential dilution from capital raises [12][14][18]. 3. **Valuation Methodology**: - Apple's price target is based on an 8.7x EV/Sales FY27 multiple, implying a P/E ratio of approximately 32x on projected EPS of $9.55 for FY27. Rivian's price target reflects a DCF-derived range of $8-$18, with a midpoint of $12 [12][13]. 4. **Emerging Technologies**: - The report emphasizes the importance of separating hype from reality in the rapidly evolving robotics and AI landscape, urging investors to critically assess the actual capabilities and market potential of these technologies [5][6][11].

Core Insights - Apple is planning to enhance Siri with Google's Gemini model, which will cost the company $1 billion per year, to support the long-awaited personalized Siri feature [3][10] - The Gemini model has 1.2 trillion parameters, significantly larger than Apple's in-house model with 150 billion parameters, indicating a strategic shift from "build" to "buy" for immediate improvements [3][10] - Apple's AI team has faced significant turnover, impacting its ability to develop its own AI solutions, leading to reliance on external models like Gemini [8][10] Group 1: Apple's AI Strategy - Apple has struggled with its own AI product, Apple Intelligence, which has not delivered satisfactory results since its launch over a year ago [5][6] - The departure of key personnel from Apple's AI team has left the department in a precarious state, hindering its development capabilities [8][10] - The introduction of Gemini is seen as a necessary measure to quickly enhance Siri's capabilities amid internal challenges [10] Group 2: Gemini Model Advantages - Gemini is recognized for its writing capabilities, which are particularly valuable for average users who may not have strong writing skills [13][15] - The model's multilingual support is among the best in the market, making it suitable for Apple's global operations [17] - The cost of $1 billion per year for Gemini is viewed as a worthwhile investment given its alignment with consumer market needs and global reach [17]

Core Insights - Apple Inc. is planning to utilize a 1.2 trillion parameter AI model from Google to enhance its Siri voice assistant, marking a significant shift in its AI strategy [1][3][11] Partnership Details - Apple is finalizing an agreement with Google that will cost approximately $1 billion annually for access to Google's AI technology [2] - The partnership aims to rebuild Siri's underlying technology, with the new features expected to launch next spring [5][12] Technical Advancements - The Google model's 1.2 trillion parameters significantly exceed Apple's current 150 billion parameter model, enhancing Siri's ability to process complex data [3][6] - Google's Gemini model will specifically manage Siri's summarizer and planner functions, while some features will still rely on Apple's in-house models [8] Development and Future Plans - Apple is concurrently developing its own 1 trillion parameter cloud-based model, aiming for consumer applications as early as next year [12] - Despite the partnership, Apple intends to eventually replace Google's technology with its own solutions, indicating a long-term strategy to regain AI leadership [12][13] Market Impact - Following the news of the partnership, shares of both Apple and Alphabet saw a brief increase, reflecting positive market sentiment [5] - The collaboration is seen as a recognition of Apple's lag in AI capabilities, as it seeks to catch up with competitors [11] Regional Considerations - Apple is also working on a localized version of Siri for China, which will not rely on Google's technology due to regulatory restrictions [13][14]

Core Insights - Apple plans to pay approximately $1 billion annually to acquire a high-performance AI model developed by Google, which has 1.2 trillion parameters, to enhance its Siri voice assistant technology [1][2] - The collaboration aims to revamp Siri's core architecture, with a new version expected to launch in spring next year [1][2] - Apple has evaluated multiple third-party models before selecting Google's Gemini, intending to use it as a transitional solution until its own AI model is competitive [1][3] Group 1 - The Siri transformation project, codenamed "Glenwood," is led by Mike Rockwell and Craig Federighi, and will be integrated into iOS 26.4 [2] - The Gemini model will enhance Siri's capabilities in summarization and task planning, while some functions will still utilize Apple's proprietary models [2] - The model will operate on Apple's private cloud servers, ensuring user data remains isolated from Google's infrastructure [2] Group 2 - Apple acknowledges its lag in the AI sector by adopting Google's technology, demonstrating a willingness to catch up [3] - Despite the collaboration, Apple does not view Gemini as a long-term solution and is accelerating the development of its own trillion-parameter cloud model [3] - The Chinese version of Siri may abandon the Gemini technology route due to restrictions on Google services, potentially using a self-developed model in conjunction with Alibaba's content filtering [3]

Core Viewpoint - Apple shares have shown mixed performance recently, with a notable increase following positive earnings results, indicating strong demand for the iPhone 17 despite previous concerns about its launch [1][2]. Financial Performance - Apple reported record revenues and iPhone sales in its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, surpassing Zacks Consensus Estimates [3]. - Services revenue reached a record of $28.8 billion [3]. - The Americas' sales were $49.03 billion, up 6.1% year over year, accounting for 47.8% of total revenues [8]. Product Demand - The iPhone 17 series sold 14% more units than the iPhone 16 in the first 10 days post-launch in the U.S. and China, with the base iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro Max experiencing the highest demand [5]. - CEO Tim Cook anticipates the December quarter's revenues to be the best ever for both the company and the iPhone, suggesting strong sales momentum [4]. Competitive Landscape - Apple faces stiff competition in China, with local players like Xiaomi launching flagship models to challenge its market position [9]. - Despite holding 62% of the global premium smartphone market in the first half of 2025, Apple has lost market share in China to competitors like Huawei and Xiaomi [10]. Valuation Concerns - Apple's stock is considered moderately costly, trading at a forward P/E of 33.84X, which is higher than several competitors, including Meta and Microsoft [12]. AI Initiatives - Apple is perceived as lagging in AI advancements compared to peers, but CEO Cook sees AI as a new opportunity for the App Store, with expectations for improved AI features in the future [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The future of AI hardware will not simply be existing hardware enhanced with AI, but will require a new ecosystem of hardware operating systems that effectively organize input and output in a multi-modal and demand-driven manner [2][3][4]. Group 1: Evolution of AI Hardware - The interaction and system architecture in the AI era will evolve significantly, with wearable devices potentially leading the transformation in AI interaction [4][21]. - The founder of Guangfan Technology, Dong Hongguang, emphasizes the importance of a unified AI brain coordinating multiple devices for seamless interaction [4][31]. - The company has rapidly gained attention in the industry, securing 130 million RMB in funding within three months of its establishment [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Future Trends - Historical shifts in personal computing have been driven by technological advancements that reshape interaction methods, leading to new hardware and software forms [14][15]. - The transition from command-line interfaces to graphical user interfaces and then to touch interactions has significantly broadened user access to computing devices [14][16]. - The introduction of AI will further transform interaction from command-based to demand-based, allowing for a more intuitive user experience [18][19]. Group 3: The Role of Devices in AI Interaction - Future devices will need to support multi-modal interactions, moving away from traditional graphical interfaces to more natural forms of communication, such as voice and visual inputs [19][20]. - Wearable devices are expected to play a crucial role in this transition, as they can provide continuous interaction and context awareness [21][40]. - The shift towards a distributed device structure, where multiple devices work together under a central AI brain, will redefine the concept of personal computing [29][31]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities in AI Hardware - The complexity of developing general-purpose AI hardware is increasing, as it must integrate various sensors and support a wide range of applications [45][47]. - The industry is witnessing a proliferation of AI hardware, but the long-term value will lie in devices that can serve multiple functions rather than specialized ones [45][46]. - Privacy concerns will need to be addressed as AI systems require extensive user data to function effectively, necessitating advancements in data protection technologies [48]. Group 5: Future of Operating Systems in AI - The next generation of operating systems will need to accommodate multi-modal interactions and data fusion, moving beyond traditional graphical interfaces [49]. - Companies like Guangfan Technology are positioning themselves to build a new software ecosystem that supports the complex demands of AI interactions [49].

Group 1 - Apple concept stocks in Hong Kong continue to decline, with notable drops including: Q Technology down nearly 5%, VST Holdings and Sunny Optical down 3.6%, and FIH Mobile down 3.3% [1] - Other companies such as AAC Technologies, BYD Electronics, and Hon Teng Precision also saw declines of nearly 3%, while Lens Technology dropped nearly 2% [1] - The decline in stock prices is attributed to the delay in the launch of Apple's AI feature "Apple Intelligence," originally planned for mid-2025 in the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - Apple's third-quarter financial report revealed a 3.6% year-on-year decline in sales from the Greater China region, which did not meet analysts' expectations of accelerating growth from over 4% in the second quarter to 9.3% [1]

Core Insights - The future of mobile technology is predicted to see the disappearance of traditional smartphones and apps within the next 5-6 years, with AI assistants becoming the main interface for human-computer interaction [1] - Mobile companies are shifting their focus from cloud collaboration to edge computing, enhancing AI capabilities directly on devices [3][4] Group 1: AI Development Trends - The rise of generative AI, particularly after the success of ChatGPT, has led mobile companies to invest heavily in AI technologies, with the first AI smartphones launched in late 2023 [2] - Companies like vivo and OPPO are prioritizing edge models, with vivo introducing a 3B (30 billion parameters) edge multimodal inference model, moving away from large cloud models [3][5] Group 2: User-Centric AI - Edge models are designed to create personalized data models based on user data, ensuring privacy and efficiency, which is crucial for personalized intelligence [4][10] - The integration of AI into user habits is emphasized, with companies like vivo implementing seamless AI features that operate without user intervention [6][7] Group 3: Ecosystem Transformation - The shift towards edge computing will redefine the mobile ecosystem, with companies aiming to control user data and flow to third-party applications [7][8] - Huawei has established an AI collaboration ecosystem through its HarmonyOS, while other companies like OPPO and Honor are also developing their own AI ecosystems [8] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The transition to edge AI faces challenges, including compatibility between cloud and mobile architectures, as well as the need for sufficient device power and memory [9][10] - The core value of edge AI lies in its ability to access private user data, which is a significant differentiator from traditional apps [10][11]