2026年开年，就不一般。 首先，是本周的宏观局势。 从3号美国直接抓捕了委内瑞拉的总统开始，全球一片震惊。 我今天的文章可能有点分散，但都是针对本周的行情，有感而发。 大家不必特别纠结大的逻辑。 川普在其社交平台"真实社交"发文表示，他决定，"为了国家的利益"，尤其是在当前这个"动荡不 安、危机四伏"的时期，2027年美国军事预算不应该是1万亿美元，而应该是1.5万亿美元。 石油、大宗、黄金、白银等价格都跟着有一波的波动。 宏观来看，因为川普的一系列"不确定性"的动作，2026年的局势变得扑朔迷离。 川普下一个动手的对象是谁，从目前来看，很可能是格陵兰岛。 之前川普说不排除武力手段拿下格陵兰岛，而且就在1月7日的时候， 1.5万亿美元，这意味着什么？ 不排除真的会有新的一轮军备竞赛。 从2022年俄乌，再到25年的印巴和以伊冲突，再到开年来了个委内瑞拉。 全球正在经历S2以来的最大一次秩序重组，这个时候美国提出要增加军费支出，肯定会让人多想。 昨天晚上，美股的军工板块已经迎来一波上涨。 格陵兰岛冰山下拥有150万吨稀土储量，相当于全球已探明储量的10% 。 美国控制 了格陵兰岛的 资源 之 后， 就可以 对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes investment opportunities in the AI-driven growth of the equipment manufacturing industry, particularly in AI edge applications and computing infrastructure [1][2]. Group 1: AI Edge Applications - The AI edge sector is expected to see rapid growth, including humanoid robots, smart manufacturing with AI (mobile robots, collaborative robots), and various consumer AI products (e.g., AI smartphones, AI glasses, AI rings) [1]. - This growth will lead to a new cycle of demand for 3C devices and subsequently a new investment cycle in semiconductor equipment due to increased needs for training, inference, and storage chips [1]. Group 2: Computing Infrastructure - Investment in computing infrastructure is crucial for the implementation of AI edge applications. The article predicts rapid growth in AIDC investments, particularly in primary and secondary cooling solutions, recommending investments in chillers and core components like refrigeration compressors and water pumps [1]. - The article also highlights investment opportunities in energy solutions benefiting from power shortages, such as gas-fired power generation combined with heat recovery steam generators (HRSG) and solar-storage systems [1]. Group 3: Export Recovery in Machinery Manufacturing - The article identifies three main drivers for the expected recovery of machinery manufacturing exports by 2026: 1. A recovery in overseas demand due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which will boost global industrial product demand, particularly in categories related to real estate [2]. 2. Strong infrastructure demand in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, with significant growth in the Middle East's natural gas extraction sector, leading to increased exports of domestic oil service equipment [2]. 3. The demand for AI computing power is creating a gap in electricity supply, driving growth in gas turbines and diesel generator sets, as well as increased demand for drilling equipment and materials used in PCB production [2].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metal Industry**: The metal industry is experiencing enhanced allocation attributes due to global mining supply growth being lower than metal output growth, alongside low inventory levels of non-ferrous metals. Demand is supported by green energy infrastructure, computing power infrastructure, and fiscal stimulus, leading to an upward resonance of industrial and liquidity cycles, optimizing industry prosperity [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: In 2025, there is a significant increase in capital market enthusiasm for cyclical industries, particularly in the second half of the year, driven by rising cyclical commodity prices and anti-involution logic. The metal industry is expected to strengthen its allocation attributes under a weak supply cycle [2]. - **Gold Market**: The global gold PEI index rose by 24% in the first ten months of 2025, indicating a scarcity of effective gold projects and limited new gold supply, with production costs rising, confirming the obstructed supply situation [3][8]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The global financial market faces geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties, leading to high volatility. This environment increases the premium on safe-haven assets like gold, with a 91% probability of positive returns during high volatility periods [4]. - **Mining Exploration Investment**: Global mining exploration investment is declining, with a projected 3% decrease in 2025. The share of greenfield exploration projects is at a historical low, reflecting reduced capital risk appetite [5]. - **Investment in Battery Metals**: Investment in battery metals surged by 42% from 2023 to 2024 but is expected to decline in 2025 due to changing price expectations. Traditional precious metals like gold and copper are regaining attention [6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - **China's Non-Ferrous Metal Production**: China's non-ferrous metal production growth has slowed to 2.6% by October 2025, leading to continued low copper smelting fees and exacerbating supply tightness due to reduced upstream capital expenditures [7]. - **Global Copper Industry**: The global copper mining industry faces challenges, with a 2% investment growth in 2024, but a 9% decline in greenfield projects. The discovery of new copper mines has significantly decreased since 2010 [10]. - **Cost Trends**: The average cash production cost for copper is projected to rise by 24% from 2021-2024 levels by 2030-2035, indicating structural and cyclical cost increases [11][12]. Inventory and Market Conditions - **Global Inventory Levels**: As of November 2025, global non-ferrous metal inventories are at a 35-year low, with a 13% year-on-year decline. This reflects supply chain vulnerabilities and limited smelting capacity utilization [13]. - **China's Demand Recovery**: In 2025, China's market demand shows signs of recovery, driven by government subsidies and the expansion of the new energy industry chain [14]. Future Outlook - **Liquidity Policies**: The shift from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy globally is expected to boost commodity price elasticity and enhance industry prosperity and valuation levels [15][16]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, leading companies with capital expenditures and R&D driving long-term growth, and new material fields benefiting from increased demand and domestic substitution [36]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the metal industry and related sectors, highlighting the interplay of supply, demand, and macroeconomic factors influencing investment strategies.

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，展望2026年，算力基建投入有望成为驱动AI增长的逻辑主 线，产业链"从0→1"环节有望涌现投资机遇。同时存储涨价或将贯穿整个2026年的时间线，4F2+CBA 等技术成为发展方向；消费电子成本压力和创新机会并存，端侧AI创新产品面临"危"与"机"并存的趋 势。 位元产出增长有限或致存储涨价贯穿2026年全年，存储厂商转向制程升级、高层数堆栈、4F2+CBA等 技术 TrendForce预计2025、2026年存储价格上涨将驱动智能手机综合成本上涨8~10%/5~7%。存储价格上涨 导致消费电子BOM成本压力增加，成本传导式涨价或影响终端产品销量。同时结构性投资机遇依然存 在。一方面，苹果定价策略呈现亲民化趋势，平价款Macbook、折叠机、智能眼镜等产品有望提振果链 增长动力。另一方面，豆包AI手机、夸克AI眼镜、苹果Apple Intelligence等端侧AI硬件新功能逐渐落 地，有望给用户带来创新性的体验。 算力基建驱动AI升级主线，行业聚焦"从0→1"变革节点 主要风险 大模型推理侧Tokens需求快速增长推动CSP厂商积极提高资本开支投入算力基础设施建设。A ...

对话 2026 年关键词：科技篇 20151223 摘要 当前 A 股非金融静态市盈率达 36 倍，科创板估值处于高位，剩余流动 性或面临压力，M2 增速虽上升但社融未显著增长，资金流入金融市场， 小盘股和北证表现突出，未来央行宽松力度可能减弱。 高估值或为未来业绩增长的提前反映，类似 2021-2022 年新能源行业， 业绩兑现后可能迎来第二波上涨，增长驱动的估值仍有提升空间。端侧 及应用端如消费电子等板块存在更多机会。 公募基金在电子、医药、电信三大行业持仓已达 50%，超配难度增加， 业绩增长将导致分化，小盘股和主题概念股承压。豆包 AI 手机引发市场 关注，为云厂商提供了新的变现渠道。 AI 手机通过系统层革新提供更优秀的操作界面，吸引消费者付费，手机 厂商需积极参与，否则可能被淘汰。云厂商与手机厂商合作形成外循环， 实现造血能力，进一步投资训练和推理业务。 未来五年人工智能将快速增长，模型厂商和云厂商将优化训练，推出更 优质的模型。2026 年看好海外算力领域，特别是英伟达产业链公司， 如 PCB、光模块等，以及工业富联。 Q&A 过去一年，AI 技术在科技行业的表现如何？未来的估值和赛道有哪些值得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (长飞光纤) is driven by positive industry fundamentals and the growing demand for computing infrastructure, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Yangtze Optical Fibre's stock price experienced three consecutive limit-up days within four trading sessions, reaching a closing price of 126.07 yuan per share and a total market value of 104.4 billion yuan as of December 23 [1][2]. - The stock's rolling price-to-earnings ratio was approximately 169 times as of December 22, indicating a potential overvaluation risk [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to increase due to the ongoing development of AI applications and data centers, with a projected sales growth of 50% for optical modules and related products by 2025, reaching over 23 billion dollars [3][4]. - Yangtze Optical Fibre has maintained its position as the global leader in the sales of optical preform, fiber, and cable for nine consecutive years, with over 30% of its revenue coming from international markets [3][4]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - The company invests approximately 5% of its revenue annually in research and development, focusing on advanced technologies such as hollow-core fibers, which are seen as the next disruptive technology in optical communication [4][5]. - Yangtze Optical Fibre is the only company globally that has industrialized the three main preform preparation technologies: PCVD, OVD, and VAD, enhancing its competitive edge [3][4]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 10.275 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.18% year-on-year growth [1][5]. - Since its listing in 2018, the company has distributed approximately 1.926 billion yuan in dividends, with the last three years accounting for 30.03% of its cumulative net profit [5].

作为AI产学研投界的标杆盛会，GAIR自2016年创办以来，始终坚守"传承+创新"内核，始终致力于连接 技术前沿与产业实践。 13日「AI 算力新十年」专场的"如何从'算力基建'到'价值闭环'？"圆桌对话中，数位业内资深专家展开精 彩对谈与深度探讨，抛出诸多极具启发性的观点： " 实现商业闭环，提供「方便、易用、便宜」的算力是关键。 " 作者丨刘伊伦 编辑丨包永刚 2025年12月12-13日，第八届GAIR全球人工智能与机器人大会在深圳·博林天瑞喜来登酒店正式启幕。 参与本次圆桌论坛的嘉宾包括： 李东东（主持人）：三丰投资创始合伙人 师天麾：清程极智联合创始人、产品副总裁 三位深耕行业的资深实践者，共同开启这场关于算力基建价值重构与未来趋势的深度对话。他们中，有人 立足资本视角洞察产业脉搏，有人扎根技术前线打磨产品落地，有人坐镇企业中枢统筹算力资源，不同维 度的经验碰撞，为算力行业的破局之路提供全新思考。 而这些观点，恰恰聚焦于算力基建狂飙突进背后的关键拷问：价值闭环该如何构建？被寄予厚望的推理需 求，究竟何时能迎来全面爆发，成为破解算力闲置的核心引擎？展望未来，算力产业还有哪些值得"押 注"的核心方向？作 ...

近期，受内外部扰动因素影响，市场情绪趋于谨慎。从外部环境看，上周五（25/12/12）美股科技板块 普遍调整，或再次引发市场对AI泡沫与算力基建前景的担忧，调整情绪传导至A股进一步压制了市场风 险偏好。从内部数据看，2025年11月社会消费品零售总额同比增速有所放缓，或反映出当前内需复苏基 础尚需巩固。在此背景下，红利类资产则凭借其较低波动性和较高盈利确定性有望成为资金进行风险防 御的重要工具。（数据来源：Bloomberg、国家统计局，发布于25/12/15） 资金流向数据显示，红利类主题ETF标杆品种红利低波ETF（512890）2025年四季度以来（25/10/9- 25/12/15）获资金净流入态势明显，48个交易日中有35个交易日实现资金净流入，区间累计吸金45.99亿 元，是同期市场上所有红利类主题ETF中仅有的区间资金净流入超40亿元的产品。在近期市场整体缩量 震荡的背景下，具备一定韧性的红利低波ETF（512890）连续4个交易日（25/12/10-12/15）合计获5.24 亿元资金加仓，成为资金的重点配置方向之一；从成交活跃度看，同期日均成交额达5.70亿元，较今年 以来（25/1/2-2 ...

（原标题：为何今天市场表现不佳！原因找到了） 【导读】为何今天市场表现不佳 今天市场明显跳水，一起找找原因吧。 A股下跌 12月15日，A股震荡调整，深成指、创业板指均跌超1%。截至收盘，沪指跌0.55%，深成指跌1.1%，创 业板指跌1.77%。 市场共2314个股上涨，65只个股涨停，2968只个股下跌。 大消费板块逆市爆发，阳光乳业、东百集团等十余股涨停。消息面上，商务部办公厅、中国人民银行办 公厅、金融监管总局办公厅发布《关于加强商务和金融协同更大力度提振消费的通知》，针对深化商务 和金融系统协作、加大消费重点领域金融支持、扩大政金企对接合作三个方面，提出11项具体举措。 商业航天概念股继续活跃，雷科防务、通宇通讯等多股涨停。 12月15日，国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份，社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%，前值 为2.9%。对于消费增速的回落，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖回应称，主要是因为去年同期基数较 高。从累计增速来看，今年的社会消费品零售总额增长好于去年。 另外，1—11月份，全国房地产开发投资78591亿元，同比下降15.9%；其中，住宅投资60432亿元，下 降15.0%。 ...

背后的原因，可能是受到以下几个消息的影响。 【导读】为何今天市场表现不佳 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊， 今天市场明显跳水，一起找找原因吧。 A股下跌 12月15日，A股震荡调整，深成指、创业板指均跌超1%。截至收盘， 沪指跌0.55%，深成指跌1.1%，创业板指跌1.77%。 市场共 2314个股上涨，65只个股涨停，2968只个股下跌。 | 880005 张跌家数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 日中 | 涨停 | 65 | | 涨幅 | > 7% | 104 | | 涨幅 | 5-7% | 87 | | 涨幅 | 3-5% | 208 | | 涨幅 | 0-3% | 1915 | | 跌幅 | 0-3% | 2475 | | 跌幅 | 3-5% | 355 | | 跌幅 | 5-7% | 88 | | 跌幅 | > 7% | 50 | | 其中 跌停 | | 24 | | 上涨家数 | | 2314 | | 下跌家变 | | 2968 | | 平盘停牌 | | 175 | | 自品种数 | | 5457 | | 总成交额 | | 17944.20亿 | | 总成交量 | | ...