Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to occur through three main avenues: 1) appointing a Fed chair who is loyal to him, anticipated to be nominated in November and take office in May next year; 2) restructuring the Fed Board to eliminate dissenting members and install loyalists; 3) influencing the appointment of regional Fed presidents whose terms expire in February [1][20]. - With the new Fed chair's appointment, it is projected that the Fed will have a more significant influence on monetary policy, potentially leading to a greater than expected rate cut in 2026, with policy rates possibly falling below the neutral level of 3% [1][20]. Economic Data Analysis - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, with supply adjustments lagging behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand. Specifically, investment has shown negative growth for two consecutive months, and retail sales growth has been declining since May [2][21]. - The divergence between supply and demand is expected to yield three outcomes: 1) GDP growth will align more closely with supply data, with Q3 GDP growth projected around 5%; 2) the current supply exceeding demand may increase price pressures, necessitating stronger policy support for price recovery; 3) if demand does not strengthen, supply will likely follow suit, leading to greater pressure on Q4 GDP compared to Q3 [2][21]. Industry Insights - The gaming industry in H1 2025 has shown strong performance, driven by innovative categories such as "micro-horror search and escape" and "overseas SLG," which have positively impacted the performance and valuation of corresponding companies [15]. - In the shipbuilding sector, new ship price indices remain high, and the merger of major shipbuilding companies is nearing completion, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Shipbuilding [15]. - The environmental sector is seeing advancements in pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, particularly in waste-to-energy projects, which could enhance the economic viability of green electricity supply [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6][13]. Core Views - The company's existing business is under pressure, but the innovation pipeline is accelerating, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [2][13]. - The revenue for the first half of 2025 is reported at 537 million yuan, a decrease of 18.28% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 17 million yuan, down 83.85% [13]. - The decline in performance is primarily due to reduced demand and pricing for the antiviral product Oseltamivir, alongside increased R&D investments [13]. - R&D expenditure reached 348 million yuan, representing a 144.07% increase, accounting for 64.83% of revenue [13]. - The target price has been adjusted to 114.70 yuan based on a 33X PS for 2026, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's innovation pipeline [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 1,180 million, 1,283 million, 1,283 million, 1,470 million, and 1,756 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 15.9%, 8.7%, 0.0%, 14.6%, and 19.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline from 202 million yuan in 2023A to 69 million yuan in 2025E, before recovering to 179 million yuan by 2027E [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease to 0.16 yuan in 2025E, with a gradual recovery to 0.42 yuan by 2027E [4]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is reported at 38,620 million yuan, with a total share capital of 423 million shares [7]. - The stock price has fluctuated between 23.00 and 116.49 yuan over the past 52 weeks [7]. Innovation Pipeline - The company is advancing its innovation pipeline, with several clinical trials underway for diabetes and weight loss treatments [13]. - The BGM0504 injection for type 2 diabetes has completed all patient enrollments for domestic Phase III clinical trials, and the weight loss indication has initiated bridging studies in the US [13]. - The company has established a partnership with China Resources Sanjiu for the commercialization of BGM0504 in the Greater China region [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year, while the prescription drug business showed strong growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 148.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.3% to 18.2 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 26.5% to 17.0 billion yuan [1]. - In 2Q25, revenue increased by 16.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit excluding non-recurring items saw significant declines of 47.3% and 51.1%, respectively [1]. - Excluding the consolidation of Kunming Pharmaceutical Group and Tasly Pharmaceutical, the company's organic revenue and net profit for 1H25 decreased by 32.0% and 33.9% year-on-year, with 2Q25 showing declines of 22.1% and 61.5% [1]. Business Segments - The Consumer Health Care (CHC) segment faced pressure due to a decrease in demand, with 1H25 revenue of 79.9 billion yuan, down 17.9% year-on-year, attributed to lower cold incidence rates. However, growth is expected to resume in the second half of the year as the cold medicine delivery season approaches [2]. - The prescription drug business emerged as a growth driver, with 1H25 revenue reaching 48.4 billion yuan, a 100% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in existing businesses and the consolidation of Tasly [2]. Innovation and R&D - The company continues to focus on innovative drug development, with R&D expenses of 4.6 billion yuan, up 40.6%. During the reporting period, it obtained 8 drug registration certificates and has 205 projects under research, covering various fields including cardiovascular, metabolic diseases, and oncology [3]. - A notable collaboration with Ai Er Pu on the HiCM-188 project aims to advance clinical trials for a groundbreaking heart failure treatment, which has received clinical approval in both China and the U.S. [3]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The acquisition of a 28% stake in Tasly, completed in March 2025, has strengthened the prescription drug business, with both companies benefiting from complementary strengths in innovation, manufacturing, and marketing [4]. - Kunming Pharmaceutical Group is undergoing a transformation focused on its "777" brand and "Kun Chinese Medicine 1381" strategy, with expectations of revenue recovery as channel reforms progress [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned for long-term growth through its CHC business stabilization, prescription drug innovation, and strategic mergers and acquisitions. Short-term performance is impacted by high base effects and channel integration challenges, leading to adjusted profit expectations for 2025-2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for China Resources Sanjiu (000999) with a target price of 36.4 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company experienced revenue growth of 5.0% year-on-year in 1H25, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.3% and net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 26.5% due to a high base effect from the previous year [2][7]. - The report highlights that the CHC (Consumer Health Care) business faced pressure due to a decline in demand, while the prescription drug business showed robust growth, driven by the integration of Tian Shi Li and the performance of existing products [7]. - The company is focusing on innovation in drug development, with significant investments in R&D and multiple projects in various therapeutic areas [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 27,617 million CNY in 2024 to 36,889 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 3,368 million CNY in 2024 to 4,477 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15.2% [2][8]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 2.02 CNY in 2024 to 2.68 CNY in 2027 [2][8]. Business Segments - The CHC business reported a revenue of 79.9 billion CNY in 1H25, down 17.9% year-on-year, primarily due to lower cold incidence rates [7]. - The prescription drug segment achieved a revenue of 48.4 billion CNY in 1H25, marking a 100% year-on-year increase, benefiting from the integration of Tian Shi Li and strong performance in existing products [7]. - The company is actively pursuing innovation in drug development, with 205 projects under research and development, and has received 8 drug registration certificates during the reporting period [7].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Borui Pharmaceutical and China Resources Sanjiu focuses on the development, registration, production, and commercialization of BGM0504 injection in mainland China, with Borui retaining full ownership of the product while granting exclusive development and commercialization rights to Sanjiu [1][2]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - Borui grants Sanjiu exclusive cooperation development and commercialization licenses while retaining full ownership of the product [1]. - Sanjiu will pay up to 282 million yuan in milestone payments for the development of BGM0504, along with additional sales milestone payments [1]. - Borui will only pay a service fee based on net sales after the product is launched, without transferring other rights [1]. Group 2: Market and Sales Implications - Sanjiu's leading OTC channel capabilities will help Borui enhance its sales performance, compensating for its own sales team limitations [2]. - The collaboration sets a precedent for paying development costs and sales milestones to obtain exclusive promotional rights, showcasing Sanjiu's commitment to supporting innovative pharmaceutical companies [2]. Group 3: Pipeline and Future Prospects - Borui has a rich pipeline in innovative drugs and complex generics, with BGM1812 in preclinical stages and BGM0504 tablets expected to enter clinical trials within the year [3]. - The company anticipates deepening cooperation with Sanjiu as new products, especially the oral BGM0504 tablets, are launched, leveraging Sanjiu's promotional capabilities to maximize domestic sales [3]. - BGM0504 injection has nearly completed bridging clinical trials in the U.S., indicating potential for international market entry [3]. Group 4: Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 260 million, 300 million, and 430 million yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 160, 139, and 97 times [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The strategic partnership with China Resources Sanjiu is expected to open up sales potential and share R&D costs for the product BGM0504 [8] - The collaboration allows the company to leverage Sanjiu's leading OTC channel capabilities, enhancing sales without transferring product ownership [8] - The company has a rich pipeline of innovative drugs and complex generics, with several products expected to enter clinical trials soon [8] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.6 billion, 3.0 billion, and 4.3 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 160, 139, and 97 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 1,283 million in 2024 to 1,762 million in 2027, with a CAGR of 15.11% from 2026 to 2027 [9] - The net profit is projected to recover from a decline in 2024 to 433.39 million by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 43.06% [1][9] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.45 in 2024 to 1.03 in 2027 [1][9] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 50.50% in 2024 to 46.56% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [9]