Core Viewpoint - HSBC upgraded Nvidia's rating to "Buy" and raised the target price from $200 to $320, indicating a potential upside of 78% based on two key signals [3][4]. Group 1: Capacity Allocation and Revenue Projections - Nvidia's allocation for TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is expected to increase from 480,000 wafers to 700,000 wafers in fiscal year 2027, representing a year-on-year growth of 140% [4][5]. - The adjustment in capacity allocation is projected to drive Nvidia's data center revenue to $351 billion for fiscal year 2027, which is 36% higher than the market consensus of $258 billion [3][4]. - In an optimistic scenario, if capacity reaches 800,000 wafers, data center revenue could potentially reach $390 billion, corresponding to an earnings per share of $9.68, which is 11% higher than the baseline scenario [5]. Group 2: AI Market and Revenue Opportunities - The report highlights a significant "closed-loop transaction" involving Nvidia's investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which has signed a $300 billion five-year partnership with Oracle to deploy Stargate capacity, with Oracle purchasing GPUs from Nvidia [6][7]. - The estimated revenue opportunity from the Stargate and OpenAI commitments is projected to be between $251 billion and $400 billion, nearly double Nvidia's current fiscal year 2027 forecast [6][7]. - Different chip generations have varying power consumption, leading to different revenue projections based on chip type, with potential revenues ranging from $2.51 billion to $400 billion depending on the chip used [7].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia clarifies rumors regarding the shortage of its H100 and H200 AI chips, stating that it has sufficient inventory to meet all orders [2][3] Group 1: Supply Chain and Inventory - Nvidia emphasizes that it can fulfill all orders for H100 and H200 chips despite market rumors of shortages [2] - The company denies that restarting production of the H20 chip will affect the supply of H100, H200, or the next-generation Blackwell chips [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - On September 2, Nvidia's stock fell by 1.95% to $170.78, with an intraday drop of 4%, influenced by shortage rumors and broader market pressures [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and rising U.S. bond yields are contributing factors to the stock's performance [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments in China - Nvidia is halting production of the H20 chip designed for Chinese companies and is developing a new product tailored for AI data centers, which will be a lower-performance version due to U.S. government requirements [5][6] - The company is in discussions with the Trump administration regarding the approval of this new chip for sale to China [5] Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - There are divisions within the U.S. government regarding the sale of AI chips to China, with concerns about national security and maintaining a competitive edge in AI technology [6][7] - Nvidia's CEO expresses surprise at the security concerns raised by Chinese officials, asserting that there are no backdoor functions in their chips [7][8] Group 5: Future Outlook - Nvidia is expected to release its quarterly earnings report soon, which is anticipated to significantly impact the market [8]