医药生物行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 替尔泊肽加冕，减重热潮未平 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 创新药研发失败的风险；市场竞争加剧的风险；创新药商业化的风险等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 医药生物行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 看好（维持） 伍云飞 执业证书编号：S0860524020001 香港证监会牌照：BRX199 wuyunfei1@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 胡俊涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124030026 | | --- | --- | | | hujuntao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 减脂保肌强协同，小核酸开启减重新纪 | 2026-01-14 | | --- | --- | | 元：—医药行业专题报告 | | | 小核酸药物：治疗潜力显现，蕴藏 BD 机 | 2025-07-27 | | 遇：——医药行业专题报告 | | | 减重需求正盛，多方向酝酿破局：——医 | 2025-06-25 | | 药行业周专题 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信 ...

If you look at the share price, it really is getting slammed. What's your message to investors today. I would say that for the last six, seven months, we have been speaking to the investors, trying to explain that in order to expand market and we need to expand market in our business, we need to reduce the prices so that we increase affordability.Of course, it was well publicized that in the US the prices from a very high level were coming down within the GLP-1. Our company is quite concentrated compared to ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly is projected to become the highest-selling biopharmaceutical company globally by 2030, with sales expected to reach $113 billion, significantly surpassing Novo Nordisk's anticipated $84 billion [2] - The diabetes and obesity drug market is expected to dominate, with an average annual growth rate of 20% from 2024 to 2030 [2] - GLP-1 receptor agonists and related drugs are expected to account for nearly 9% of the global prescription drug market by 2030, marking a significant category in the pharmaceutical landscape [2] Group 1: Sales Projections - Eli Lilly's diabetes treatment Mounjaro is expected to become the best-selling drug globally by 2030, with projected sales of $36 billion [4] - Novo Nordisk's drugs, including Ozempic and Wegovy, are also expected to rank among the top ten best-selling drugs, with sales of $24.4 billion and $18.1 billion respectively [4] - Three clinical-stage obesity drugs are anticipated to enter the global sales top ten by 2030, with Eli Lilly's Orforglipron and Retatrutide projected to achieve sales of $12.7 billion and $5.6 billion respectively [4] Group 2: Company Rankings and Growth - The top seven companies in global prescription drug sales for 2024 are projected to be Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, Merck, Roche, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Novartis, with sales ranging from $50.2 billion to $55.7 billion [5] - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are expected to surpass these companies by 2030, with AbbVie showing significant growth to $75.3 billion, driven by its immunology drugs [5][6] - Sanofi is projected to grow from $44.2 billion in 2024 to $64.8 billion by 2030, largely due to its drug Dupixent [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Roche is expected to see its overall prescription drug sales increase from $52.5 billion to $66.3 billion by 2030, despite not having any single drug in the top ten [7] - Merck's sales are projected to grow from $54.3 billion to $60 billion, with Keytruda facing competition from biosimilars [7] - The rapid expansion of the diabetes and obesity treatment market is reshaping the pharmaceutical industry, positioning Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as new leaders [8]

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk has made a significant investment of $2 billion to acquire global rights for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of UBT251 from United Pharmaceuticals, indicating its ambition in the weight loss sector beyond its existing product, semaglutide [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment and Agreements - Novo Nordisk entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with United Pharmaceuticals, acquiring rights to UBT251, a triple agonist targeting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors, which is currently in early clinical development [2][3]. - The agreement allows Novo Nordisk to develop and commercialize UBT251 globally, excluding mainland China and certain regions, with United Pharmaceuticals retaining rights in those areas [2][3]. - United Pharmaceuticals is set to receive an upfront payment of $200 million and up to $1.8 billion in potential milestone payments based on development and sales achievements [2][3]. Group 2: Clinical Data and Product Potential - UBT251 has shown superior efficacy in preclinical models for kidney damage compared to semaglutide, particularly in improving markers of renal injury [3][4]. - The drug is being tested for a wide range of indications, including obesity, type 2 diabetes, and chronic kidney disease, with ongoing clinical trials in various populations [3][4]. Group 3: Market Landscape and Competition - The global anti-obesity drug market is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, attracting numerous competitors [5][6]. - Novo Nordisk's semaglutide has established a leading position in the market, with significant sales figures, while other companies like Eli Lilly and Merck are also developing competing products [5][6][7]. - Recent collaborations by major pharmaceutical companies, such as Roche and AbbVie, indicate a growing interest in long-acting insulin analogs and other innovative treatments for obesity [6][7].