智通财经APP获悉，根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，2025年第二季NAND Flash产业虽面临平均销售 价格(ASP)小幅下滑，所幸原厂减产策略缓解供需失衡，叠加中、美两大市场政策推动，整体出货位元 大幅成长，前五大品牌厂合计营收季增22%，达146.7亿美元。 第三季随着中国市场补贴政策效应与厂商备货潮减弱，需求趋于平稳。尽管预期ASP可望小幅回升，但 消费性需求持续疲软，且前期备货透支，预计第三季NAND Flash产业营收虽能维持成长，但幅度将会 收敛。 分析第二季前五大NAND Flash供应商营收情况，Samsung(三星)营收季增23.8%，达52亿美元。增长主 要源于AI Server带动的强劲Enterprise SSD需求，助力出货表现大幅优于预期，并通过调整产品组合降 低库存，Samsung市占率微幅成长至32.9%，稳居营收第一。 SK Group [SK集团，含SK hynix(SK海力士)和Solidigm(思得)]第二季受惠于Solidigm Enterprise SSD出 货暴增，以及SK hynix 321层NAND Flash量产导入，营收攀升至近33.4亿美元 ...

Aug. 28, 2025 产业洞察 根 据 TrendForce 集 邦 咨 询 最 新 调 查 ， 2025 年 第 二 季 NAND Flash 产 业 虽 面 临 平 均 销 售 价 格 （ASP）小幅下滑，所幸原厂减产策略缓解供需失衡，叠加中、美两大市场政策推动，整体出 货位元大幅成长， 前五大品牌厂合计营收季增22%，达146.7亿美元。 | Rankings | Company | Revenue (US$M) | | Market Share (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2Q25 | QoQ (%) | 2Q25 | 1Q25 | | 1 | Samsung | 5,200.0 | 23.8% | 32.9% | 31.9% | | 2 | SK Group (SK hynix + Solidigm) | 3,335.2 | 52.5% | 21.1% | 16.6% | | 3 | Kioxia | 2,135.0 | 11.4% | 13.5% | 14.6% | | 4 | Micron | 2,100.0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The NAND Flash market is experiencing improved supply-demand balance due to production cuts and inventory reduction, with expectations for price increases in various segments in Q3 2025 [1][4][5]. NAND Flash Market Overview - The NAND Flash market has seen a significant improvement in supply-demand balance following production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Major manufacturers are shifting production capacity to high-margin products, leading to a reduction in market supply [1]. Price Forecasts - Average contract prices for NAND Flash are expected to increase by 5% to 10% in Q3 2025, with specific segments showing varied growth rates [2]. - eMMC and UFS products are projected to have limited price increases due to uncertain smartphone demand, with expected growth of 0% to 5% [2][6]. Client SSD Market Dynamics - The Client SSD market is experiencing inventory replenishment, driven by better-than-expected inventory reduction in the first half of the year [4]. - Factors such as the end of Windows 10 support, new CPU launches, and demand from Chinese DeepSeek all contribute to increased Client SSD demand, with price forecasts of a 3% to 8% increase in Q3 2025 [4][5]. Enterprise SSD Demand - The demand for Enterprise SSDs is expected to grow due to rising orders from North American general-purpose servers and strong orders from Chinese clients [5]. - However, supply chain challenges may hinder delivery capabilities, leading to a price increase of 5% to 10% for Enterprise SSDs in Q3 2025 [5]. Mobile Product Segment - The demand for eMMC and UFS products is expected to remain flat, with eMMC prices projected to increase by 0% to 5% due to sufficient supply and rising costs for module manufacturers [6]. - UFS demand is also limited by uncertain smartphone market conditions, with a similar price forecast of 0% to 5% increase [6]. Wafer Supply and Pricing - The overall NAND Flash production is declining, and manufacturers are focusing on high-margin products, leading to an expected price increase of 8% to 13% for wafers in Q3 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - ASPEED: Overweight (O/W) with revised 2Q revenue guidance [3][4] - SHIFT: Upgraded to Overweight (O/W) with price target raised to Y1,900 [5] - Silicon Motion (SIMO): Gaining market share in client SSDs and mobile controllers [6] Core Insights - ASPEED has revised its 2Q revenue guidance upward to NT$1.9-2 billion from NT$1.7-1.8 billion, driven by robust demand in CSP across China and the US [4] - The company anticipates a slowdown in 2H due to limited visibility in 4Q, projecting a 15% revenue increase for FY25 [4] - SHIFT is making good progress in project assignments for newly hired talent, indicating strong operational momentum [5] - SIMO is breaking into enterprise and automotive sectors, with expectations of continued share gains in mobile controllers and SSDs [6] Detailed Highlights - ASPEED expects to regain market share from Intel's Oak Stream with the AST2700, supported by a shortened launch schedule and enhanced security features [4] - The company is targeting 3-4 million mini-BMC shipments for FY25, with a forecast of 300-400k PFR chips for Tier-2 customers [4] - SHIFT's enterprise controller is set to ramp in 2H25, with confirmed design wins from Tier-1 customers in the US and China [9] - SIMO aims to increase its client SSD market share from 30% to 40% over the next three years, driven by new product roadmaps [9] - The automotive sector is projected to contribute over 10% of revenue for FY26-27, with design wins from major automotive manufacturers [9] - NVDA's Computex keynote highlighted advancements in ASIC integration and the introduction of new products like CuLitho and GB200 [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for NAND Flash prices in Q2 2025, driven by production cuts and inventory replenishment in the consumer electronics sector [5][8] - The semiconductor equipment industry is witnessing significant technological breakthroughs from domestic companies, reshaping the global market landscape [5][8] - The coal import data indicates a marginal slowdown in growth, with a notable decrease in import prices compared to the previous year [7][9] Industry Commentary - **Electronics**: The NAND Flash prices are expected to rise in Q2 2025 due to reduced production and increased demand from consumer electronics brands [5] - **Coal**: The coal import volume for January-February 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 2%, but the average import price has decreased by 11.14% compared to the previous year [9][10] Company Analysis - **Guanghe Technology (001389.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 3.734 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 39.43%, driven by the growing demand for AI infrastructure [13][14] - **Babi Foods (605338.SH)**: The company achieved a revenue of 1.671 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 29.42%, supported by the expansion of franchise stores and large customer channels [16][17] - **Kema Technology (301611.SZ)**: The company leads the domestic market in advanced ceramic components for semiconductors, with a revenue CAGR of 18% from 2021 to 2023 [20][21] - **ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 121.299 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.38%, with a focus on expanding its AI and edge computing business [25][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on storage chip design and packaging leaders due to the anticipated price recovery in NAND Flash [8] - It recommends investing in domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies, as well as those involved in AI infrastructure [8] - For coal companies, it highlights the potential for stable high-dividend stocks and suggests monitoring companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Energy [12]