智通财经APP获悉，根据TrendForce集邦咨询观察，由于消费市场需求提前在上半年被透支，下半年旺 季未能如预期发挥效应，市场原本普遍预估4Q25价格将进入盘整。然而，HDD供给短缺与过长交期， 使CSP(云端服务供应商)将储存需求快速转向QLC Enterprise SSD，短期内急单大量涌入，造成市场明显 波动。同时，SanDisk(闪迪)率先宣布调涨10%，Micron(美光)也因价格与产能配置考量暂停报价，使得 供应端氛围由保守转为积极。在此外溢效应带动下，预估NAND Flash第四季各类产品合约价将全面上 涨，平均涨幅达5-10%。 | | 3Q25E | 4Q25F | | --- | --- | --- | | Broom 15 | | | | Total NAND Flash | up 3~8% | up 5~10% | | 331 - Marce - Dixto Market Colors of | | And Callery of Con- | TrendForce集邦咨询指出，从供给面来看，NAND Flash受惠于上半年减产与优先去化库存，市场供需平 衡明显改善，原厂库存与价格压 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the NAND Flash market due to supply shortages and increased demand from cloud service providers, leading to a price increase in Q4 2025 [2][5][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - NAND Flash supply has improved due to production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025, alleviating price pressures [5] - The demand for QLC (Quad-Level Cell) SSDs is rising, driven by the need for high-capacity storage in generative AI applications [5][6] - Despite weak consumer demand and excess inventory in the channel, enterprise SSD demand is expected to grow due to increased orders from server OEMs and CSPs [6][8] Price Trends - NAND Flash contract prices are projected to rise by an average of 5-10% in Q4 2025, following a 3-8% increase in Q3 2025 [3] - SanDisk and Micron have announced price increases, indicating a shift in the supply-side sentiment from conservative to positive [2][5] Product Segmentation - Client SSDs have seen a significant reduction in inventory levels, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation [7] - Enterprise SSD suppliers are adjusting their production strategies to meet the growing demand for high-capacity products, particularly those exceeding 120TB [8] - eMMC/UFS products are facing weak demand and intense competition from local manufacturers, which may limit price increases despite manufacturers' efforts to recover losses [9] Manufacturing Adjustments - NAND Flash wafer manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin product lines, which may lead to tighter supply and further price increases in Q4 2025 [10]

Core Insights - The NAND Flash industry is experiencing significant revenue growth, with the top five brands achieving a combined revenue increase of over 20% in Q2, reaching $14.67 billion [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - Samsung's revenue increased by 23.8% in Q2, reaching $5.2 billion, driven by strong demand for Enterprise SSDs from AI servers, resulting in a slight market share increase to 32.9% [1] - SK Group, including SK hynix and Solidigm, reported a record revenue of nearly $3.34 billion in Q2, a 52.5% increase, with market share rising from 16.6% to 21.1% [2] - Kioxia's revenue reached approximately $2.14 billion in Q2, an 11.4% increase, supported by strong AI server demand and normalization of inventory levels for PC and smartphone clients [2] - Micron's revenue grew by 3.7% in Q2 to $2.1 billion, despite a decline in average selling prices, with significant growth in shipment volumes [2] - SanDisk's revenue increased by 12.2% in Q2 to $1.9 billion, benefiting from channel price recovery and inventory replenishment in Client SSDs and retail products [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The NAND Flash industry is expected to face a slight decline in average selling prices (ASP) in Q2 2025, but production cuts by manufacturers are helping to alleviate supply-demand imbalances [1] - Demand is anticipated to stabilize in Q3 due to the diminishing effects of subsidy policies in China and reduced stocking by manufacturers, although ASPs may see a slight recovery [1]

Core Insights - The NAND Flash industry experienced a slight decline in average selling prices (ASP) in Q2 2025, but a reduction in production by manufacturers helped alleviate supply-demand imbalances, leading to a significant increase in overall shipments. The top five brands collectively saw a revenue increase of 22%, reaching $14.67 billion [2][5]. Revenue and Market Share Analysis - Samsung led the market with a revenue of $5.2 billion in Q2 2025, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 23.8%, capturing a market share of 32.9% [3][6]. - SK Group, which includes SK hynix and Solidigm, achieved a record revenue of $3.34 billion, up 52.5% from the previous quarter, increasing its market share to 21.1% [3][6]. - Kioxia reported revenue of $2.14 billion, an 11.4% increase, benefiting from strong demand for AI servers and a normalization of inventory levels for PCs and smartphones [3][6]. - Micron's revenue reached $2.1 billion, a modest increase of 3.7%, with a slight decline in market share to 13.3%, although it achieved record market shares in Client SSD and Data Center SSD segments [3][7]. - SanDisk's revenue grew by 12.2% to $1.9 billion, supported by a recovery in channel prices and inventory replenishment, but it lagged behind competitors in the Enterprise SSD market [3][7]. Future Outlook - In Q3 2025, demand is expected to stabilize as the effects of subsidy policies in China wane and inventory buildup by manufacturers decreases. Although ASPs may see a slight recovery, overall revenue growth in the NAND Flash industry is anticipated to slow down [5].

Core Viewpoint - The NAND Flash market is experiencing improved supply-demand balance due to production cuts and inventory reduction, with expectations for price increases in various segments in Q3 2025 [1][4][5]. NAND Flash Market Overview - The NAND Flash market has seen a significant improvement in supply-demand balance following production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Major manufacturers are shifting production capacity to high-margin products, leading to a reduction in market supply [1]. Price Forecasts - Average contract prices for NAND Flash are expected to increase by 5% to 10% in Q3 2025, with specific segments showing varied growth rates [2]. - eMMC and UFS products are projected to have limited price increases due to uncertain smartphone demand, with expected growth of 0% to 5% [2][6]. Client SSD Market Dynamics - The Client SSD market is experiencing inventory replenishment, driven by better-than-expected inventory reduction in the first half of the year [4]. - Factors such as the end of Windows 10 support, new CPU launches, and demand from Chinese DeepSeek all contribute to increased Client SSD demand, with price forecasts of a 3% to 8% increase in Q3 2025 [4][5]. Enterprise SSD Demand - The demand for Enterprise SSDs is expected to grow due to rising orders from North American general-purpose servers and strong orders from Chinese clients [5]. - However, supply chain challenges may hinder delivery capabilities, leading to a price increase of 5% to 10% for Enterprise SSDs in Q3 2025 [5]. Mobile Product Segment - The demand for eMMC and UFS products is expected to remain flat, with eMMC prices projected to increase by 0% to 5% due to sufficient supply and rising costs for module manufacturers [6]. - UFS demand is also limited by uncertain smartphone market conditions, with a similar price forecast of 0% to 5% increase [6]. Wafer Supply and Pricing - The overall NAND Flash production is declining, and manufacturers are focusing on high-margin products, leading to an expected price increase of 8% to 13% for wafers in Q3 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - ASPEED: Overweight (O/W) with revised 2Q revenue guidance [3][4] - SHIFT: Upgraded to Overweight (O/W) with price target raised to Y1,900 [5] - Silicon Motion (SIMO): Gaining market share in client SSDs and mobile controllers [6] Core Insights - ASPEED has revised its 2Q revenue guidance upward to NT$1.9-2 billion from NT$1.7-1.8 billion, driven by robust demand in CSP across China and the US [4] - The company anticipates a slowdown in 2H due to limited visibility in 4Q, projecting a 15% revenue increase for FY25 [4] - SHIFT is making good progress in project assignments for newly hired talent, indicating strong operational momentum [5] - SIMO is breaking into enterprise and automotive sectors, with expectations of continued share gains in mobile controllers and SSDs [6] Detailed Highlights - ASPEED expects to regain market share from Intel's Oak Stream with the AST2700, supported by a shortened launch schedule and enhanced security features [4] - The company is targeting 3-4 million mini-BMC shipments for FY25, with a forecast of 300-400k PFR chips for Tier-2 customers [4] - SHIFT's enterprise controller is set to ramp in 2H25, with confirmed design wins from Tier-1 customers in the US and China [9] - SIMO aims to increase its client SSD market share from 30% to 40% over the next three years, driven by new product roadmaps [9] - The automotive sector is projected to contribute over 10% of revenue for FY26-27, with design wins from major automotive manufacturers [9] - NVDA's Computex keynote highlighted advancements in ASIC integration and the introduction of new products like CuLitho and GB200 [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for NAND Flash prices in Q2 2025, driven by production cuts and inventory replenishment in the consumer electronics sector [5][8] - The semiconductor equipment industry is witnessing significant technological breakthroughs from domestic companies, reshaping the global market landscape [5][8] - The coal import data indicates a marginal slowdown in growth, with a notable decrease in import prices compared to the previous year [7][9] Industry Commentary - **Electronics**: The NAND Flash prices are expected to rise in Q2 2025 due to reduced production and increased demand from consumer electronics brands [5] - **Coal**: The coal import volume for January-February 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 2%, but the average import price has decreased by 11.14% compared to the previous year [9][10] Company Analysis - **Guanghe Technology (001389.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 3.734 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 39.43%, driven by the growing demand for AI infrastructure [13][14] - **Babi Foods (605338.SH)**: The company achieved a revenue of 1.671 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 29.42%, supported by the expansion of franchise stores and large customer channels [16][17] - **Kema Technology (301611.SZ)**: The company leads the domestic market in advanced ceramic components for semiconductors, with a revenue CAGR of 18% from 2021 to 2023 [20][21] - **ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 121.299 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.38%, with a focus on expanding its AI and edge computing business [25][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on storage chip design and packaging leaders due to the anticipated price recovery in NAND Flash [8] - It recommends investing in domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies, as well as those involved in AI infrastructure [8] - For coal companies, it highlights the potential for stable high-dividend stocks and suggests monitoring companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Energy [12]