Kieran Brophy LSEG 主权气候研究负责人 LSEG第五版《净零排放地图 集》（《 Net Zero Atlas》） 为投 资者提供了大量关于G20国家所面临 的转型风险和物理风险的数据与洞察。 我们转型风险分析的关键发现 我们对气候物理风险分析的关键发现 Jaakko Kooroshy LSEG 全球可持续投资研究主管 Alan Meng LSEG 可持续固定收益 研究主管 Edmund Bourne LSEG SI 研究主管 95%的国家未能在联合国规定的2月截止日期前提交新的国家自主贡献（NDCs 3.0）。然而，主要排 放国的最新宣布意味着已有15个二十国集团（G20）经济体——覆盖了G20排放量的71%——设定了 2035年目标。 伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）的分析显示，这些2035年目标显著加快了2030年之后的减排步伐：有 目标的G20国家在2030至2035年间的年度减排率提升至-2.6%至-3.5%（相比之下，在NDCs 2.0框架 下，2023至2030年间仅为-0.5%至-0.7%），这意味着在2030目标基础上额外实现五年间13%至18% 的减排。 对于企业和投资者而言 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling a slowdown in monetary easing amid complex challenges including deflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and structural issues, particularly in Germany [2][4]. Group 1: ECB Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - On June 5, 2025, the ECB decided to lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2%, indicating the end of the monetary easing cycle [3]. - The inflation rate in May 2025 was 1.9%, influenced by multiple factors, despite stable import levels and a significant decline in exports [3]. - The ECB has revised its inflation forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points for 2025 and 2026, with expected inflation rates of 2% and 1.6% respectively [8]. - The ECB's economic growth forecasts remain unchanged, predicting real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 [8]. Group 2: Germany's Economic Challenges and Policy Changes - Germany's GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q2 2025, primarily due to reduced exports to the U.S., with the economy facing two consecutive years of recession [10]. - Structural issues, geopolitical factors, and a decline in exports to China due to its GDP slowdown are significant contributors to Germany's economic challenges [10]. - Germany plans to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2029 and has allocated €500 billion for infrastructure modernization [12][13]. - The "debt brake" mechanism, which limits structural deficits, has been a key factor in maintaining fiscal discipline, resulting in a 16% reduction in debt-to-GDP ratio over 15 years [10][12]. Group 3: Investment Initiatives and Economic Fragmentation - A private sector initiative called "Made for Germany" aims to invest a total of €631 billion in Germany by 2028, supported by a new tax reduction policy [14]. - Despite global trade negotiations and geopolitical challenges leading to economic fragmentation, the ECB is expected to significantly reduce its intervention in economic activities in the coming months [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing pressure on the US economy due to expanding trade and budget deficits, which are leading to a steeper yield curve and weakening credit conditions [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The US GDP is projected to contract by 0.3% in Q1 2025, driven by increased imports and reduced government spending, although this is partially offset by rising consumer spending and exports [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, imports surged by 41.3% before tariffs were fully implemented, with March imports reaching $346 billion and the trade deficit widening to $163 billion [1][3]. Employment and Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index fell by 9% from March to April 2025, yet job creation exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2]. - Despite the resilience of the job market, the implementation of tariffs is expected to negatively impact employment conditions [2]. Trade Deficit Dynamics - The overall trade deficit has increased since the implementation of tariffs, despite a reduction in the trade deficit with China during Trump's first term [2][4]. - Countries like Vietnam and Thailand have benefited from supply chain shifts, increasing their trade surplus with the US [2]. Credit and Fiscal Concerns - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising fiscal deficits and increasing federal debt, with the five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread widening by 20 basis points [3][4]. - The yield curve has steepened, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a 19-month high amid concerns over fiscal sustainability and trade tensions [3][5]. Future Projections - The tax reform bill passed by the House is expected to add $3.1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, potentially pushing the budget deficit close to 7% of GDP in the coming years [5]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase by 8% to 10% over the four-year term, with long-term bond yields expected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding 6% in the coming years [6].

Core Viewpoint - The evolving climate commitments of countries require investors to adjust their interpretations and strategies accordingly, as these commitments signal future economic directions and climate risks [1][2]. Group 1: Climate Commitment Progress - The progress towards achieving climate goals may be stagnating, with only 13 out of 195 countries submitting updated 2035 emission reduction targets by the deadline [2]. - The urgency and political attention surrounding climate commitments have diminished due to competing global issues such as war, inflation, and geopolitical tensions [2]. - Despite varying levels of government support for energy transition, the shift is reshaping global market dynamics driven by technology, regulation, and finance [2]. Group 2: Integration of Climate Commitments and Investment Analysis - LSEG provides data, models, and research to help investors interpret the intentions and feasibility behind national climate commitments [3]. - The latest "Net Zero Atlas" aligns emission reduction targets with sovereign decarbonization pathways, assessing the compatibility of these commitments with the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C [3][4]. - As of now, only 20 updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have been submitted, with some countries' commitments still aligning with the 1.5°C target while others indicate a trajectory exceeding 2°C [4]. Group 3: Long-term Climate Goals - LSEG has developed a global dataset identifying over 100 countries with announced long-term climate goals, with 81 aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 [6]. - Some countries have earlier targets (e.g., Germany by 2045), while others have later targets (e.g., China by 2060, India by 2070) [6]. - The dataset quantifies the scope and specifics of these goals, highlighting whether they are legally binding or merely public commitments, and which greenhouse gases are included [6]. Group 4: Investor Needs Beyond Targets - Investors require more than just targets; they need clear information on policy frameworks, industry implementation pathways, and funding requirements to make climate commitments actionable [8]. - LSEG's tools track not only overall targets but also critical aspects such as interim milestones, legal enforceability, gas coverage, and financing dependencies [9]. - Understanding the specifics of these commitments is crucial for investors assessing future emission risks and transition exposures [9].

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has proposed a comprehensive reform plan for its sustainable finance agenda, aiming to simplify EU requirements and enhance competitiveness, which includes reducing the number of companies subject to disclosure rules and simplifying technical requirements related to those disclosures [1][3]. Summary by Sections Background of the Comprehensive Proposal - The EU's sustainable finance strategy has introduced several initiatives to direct capital towards environmental goals, including the EU Taxonomy, the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) [2]. Proposal Highlights - The comprehensive proposal includes three main suggestions: 1. Amendments to the CSRD and CSDDD to reduce the number of companies required to disclose under CSRD by approximately 80% and exempt many small companies from CSDDD compliance [4]. 2. Delaying the reporting timeline for companies originally set to report in 2026 and 2027 by two years and extending the transposition deadline for CSDDD to 2028 [5]. 3. Revising the EU Taxonomy reporting requirements to reduce reporting templates by 70% and introducing a materiality assessment mechanism, making disclosures voluntary for companies with qualifying activities below 10% [6]. Impact on Investors - Investors have a strong demand for data to integrate sustainability considerations into their investment strategies, with over 80% of asset owners already implementing such practices [8]. - Despite the simplification of the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS), the EU's sustainable finance framework will still generate detailed reports on corporate sustainability issues, aiding investors in understanding sustainability factors and managing risks [8]. - The proposal maintains consistency between CSRD and other elements of the sustainable finance framework, ensuring that investors can meet reporting requirements for key performance indicators [8]. Data Coverage and Concerns - Some investors express concerns that the proposal may reduce the comprehensiveness of sustainability data available to them, potentially leading to investments in companies that continue to report [10]. - The demand for sustainability data has outpaced what companies can provide, leading data providers to use proxy and estimated data, which may increase costs and risks for investors [11]. LSEG's Solutions - LSEG is adapting its sustainable finance data and analytics solutions to align with the proposed changes, ensuring the quality of its datasets meets evolving regulatory requirements [11]. - The company is committed to helping clients interpret and apply sustainability data effectively, integrating necessary updates into their workflows [11]. Global Regulatory Framework - The EU regulatory framework is designed to be interoperable with emerging global frameworks, particularly those set by the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), providing guidance for industry-specific reporting [12]. Conclusion - The proposal will be reviewed by the European Parliament and the EU Council, and adjustments may occur during negotiations. LSEG is closely monitoring these developments to assist clients in navigating changes in the EU sustainability information disclosure landscape [14].

Delphine Dirat LSEG 政府关系与监管战略高级经理 Elena Philipova LSEG 可持续发展金融总监 David Harris LSEG 可持续发展金融总监 欧洲委员会已公布针对其可持续发展金融议程关键要素的全面改革方案，以简化欧盟的各项要求并提升欧洲 的竞争力。委员会提出的综合方案提议大幅减少受披露规则约束的公司数量，并力求简化与该披露相关的技 术性要求。 尽管报告中的削减方案以及聚焦于更具实质性数据的提案已得到广泛支持，但综合方案中的豁免条款也使投 资者可获取的企业可持续性信息的数量和全面性有所降低。 我们一直密切关注相关进展，并与监管机构及其他利益相关方保持紧密合作，以确保金融专业人士能够获取 所需数据，从而更有效地管理风险并履行监管报告义务。我们最近提出了一系列改革建议，并正在组织讨 论。接下来， 我们将深入探讨这些提案对投资者和发行人的影响，以及LSEG是如何帮助他们应对这些变化 所带来的不确定性。 综合提案背景 近年来，欧盟的可持续发展金融战略已推出多项举措，旨在引导资本投向欧盟所设定的环境目标。这些举措 包括： 欧盟分类法（EU Taxonomy） 该分类法明确了哪些 ...