stainability Consultin 乳制品行业气候风险再识别: 从不可控外力 到经营中的可控变量 Re-identification of Climate Risks in the Dairy Industry: From Uncontrollable External Forces to Controllable Variables in Operations For the X Copyright © 2025 Wisers Information Limited 2025 . 06 | | | Contents 潨䓡 03 | | | | 䔲孞⦫굥ꤗ暭⸓暋㥗❡ꆀ✌ⵖㅷ⟱⚌㥵⡦邂ꆀ餒⸉䕧ㆇ | 06 | | --- | --- | | ⟱⚌⚹历⛎꨽銳邂ꆀ孞⦫굥ꤗ涸餒⸉䕧ㆇ | 07 | | 孞⦫/荈搬湱Ⱒ餒⸉⥌䜂霉⠮〳⟄⨞ⵌ历⛎玐䏞 | 08 | | 蕯㛇炄餒⸉侨研劢䗳腊䲿⣘〳⟄䙦⛎⨞ | 11 | | 䚪絕 | 13 | | 暜㖞Ⲹ❡ծ㥗⟟岚⸓˘匧畮㣔孞♴涸✌⟱꣭劥倝䙼騟 | 15 | | 孞⦫굥ꤗ ͒չ㣔拇պ罜僽〳盗锐涸չ絑蠒」ꆀպ | 16 | | 䚪絕 | 21 | | 㟞 ...

"预计，鉴于全球贸易政策的不确定性持续给借款人带来压力，2026年中国和韩国各领域的结构性融资资产表现在 整体上将继续承压。然而，评级应会保持稳定，这得益于结构性风险缓释措施以及现有的信用增级水平。" 李佳蕙 结构性融资董事 中韩结构性融资展望恶化；日本为中性 科技颠覆 惠誉行业展望：中性 气候风险影响加剧 惠誉评级对中国RMBS和个人汽车抵押贷款以及韩国信用卡的2026年资产表现展望为"恶化"，而对日本个人汽车 抵押贷款的展望为"中性"。 全球贸易政策的不确定性将持续对借款人构成压力，导致中国和韩国结构性融资行业的资产表现继续承压。中国 经济和收入增长前景疲软将对RMBS和个人汽车抵押贷款表现构成压力，且这一压力将因行业特有驱动因素而进 一步加剧。未来若全球贸易流动再度受阻，将进一步抑制消费者信心和经济复苏前景。尽管宽松货币政策在一定 程度上缓解了借款人的压力，但受全球贸易不确定性持续存在和家庭债务水平高企影响，韩国的无抵押资产表现 将小幅走弱。 在日本，持续的通胀效应与利率上升将在2026年继续对家庭偿债能力构成压力，尽管我们预计整体资产表现将保 持稳定，经济环境的变化将仅会影响最为脆弱的借款人群体。 在 ...

当前，我国对外直接投资规模持续扩大，已深度融入全球经济发展格局。截至2024年底，中国境内投资 者在全球190个国家和地区设立境外企业5.2万家，其中在共建"一带一路"国家设立企业1.9万家。随着全 球气候变暖加剧，极端天气事件频发，东道国气候风险已成为影响我国对外投资安全不可忽视的重要因 素。2024年全球平均气温较工业化前水平升高约1.55℃，首次突破《巴黎协定》设定的1.5℃控温目标， 凸显了防控气候风险的现实紧迫性。 从投资布局看，我国对外直接投资存量约90%分布于发展中经济体，主要集中在制造业、批发零售业、 租赁和商务服务业等领域。这些地区和行业对气候变化较为敏感，更容易受到洪水、干旱、风暴等自然 灾害的影响，导致运营中断、供应链波动和成本攀升。未来，极端天气的发生频率和强度将进一步上 升，东道国气候风险正从偶发性威胁演变为系统性挑战，必须引起高度重视。 强化企业气候风险管理能力，稳定对外直接投资意愿。 企业是对外投资的微观主体，其风险应对能力直接关系到整体投资安全。要将气候风险纳入企业对外投 资决策核心环节。引导企业建立覆盖投资全周期的气候风险评估机制，同步制定极端天气应对应急预 案，从源头降低风 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 新浪财经ESG评级中心提供包括资讯、报告、培训、咨询等在内的14项ESG服务，助力上市公司传播ESG理念，提升ESG可持续发展表现。点 击查看【 ESG评级中心服务手册】 2025年12月2日，第13届中国责任投资论坛（China SIF）年会在京成功举行。年会由商道融绿主办，联合国环境规划署金融倡议组织（UNEP FI）、联合 国可持续证券交易所倡议组织（UN SSE）联合主办。来自监管、市场、学界、国内国际组织等各界数十位专家在年会上发表观点，热议全球责任投资新 格局和ESG投资新机遇。 当日下午，年会的平行论坛"气候风险的分析与评估"举行。平行论坛由气候债券倡议组织（CBI）中国区总经理谢文泓先生主持，他提到气候风险的识别 与评估已成为全球金融市场的关键议题，对金融决策、投资组合及风险管理产生深远影响。在北美市场，近期市场焦点从ESG披露和净零转型明显转向物 理气候风险管理和提升气候韧性。与此同时，欧洲央行和欧洲银行管理局等监管机构已要求银行开展气候风险压力测试。中国的相关主管部门和市场机构 也在气候相关信息披露和压力测试方面取得了显著进展。金融机构和投 ...

全球气候治理正行至一个攸关未来的关键十字路口。2025年，既是《巴黎协定》达成十周年，也是 中国提出"双碳"目标五周年，标志着全球气候治理进入攻坚阶段。应对气候变化，已从一个遥远的概 念，演变为关乎人类生存与发展的共同挑战，一场不容有失的硬仗已然打响。 在时代大潮下，中国正以坚定的决心推进碳达峰碳中和，引领一场广泛而深刻的经济社会系统性变 革。金融作为现代经济的核心，成为推动绿色转型的关键力量；作为经济的减震器与社会的稳定器，保 险与再保险在风险管理和资源配置中的独特作用，正愈发凸显。 作为再保险行业的国家队和主力军，中国再保险（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"中国再保"）始 终与国家战略同频共振，与时代脉搏同向而行。面对气候变化的时代命题，中国再保以战略远见锚定方 向，以实干笃行筑牢屏障，将应对气候变化融入企业发展战略，视其为业务创新发展的重要推动力量， 持续加强气候风险量化管理，不断提升气候风险研究能力，护航中国式现代化建设。 时代叩问，行业之需：应对气候变化是战略必然 近年来，全球气候变化风险以前所未有的速度加剧。持续刷新的高温纪录、悄然消融的极地冰川、 愈发极端猛烈的暴雨洪涝……这些不再是新闻标题里的远 ...

Core Insights - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report indicates that the global economy is in a state of "fragile resilience" for 2024-2025, characterized by superficial stability but underlying weaknesses and accumulating risks [1] - Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] Demand-Side Weakness - Global demand is weak, with sluggish domestic spending and consumer purchasing power under pressure, particularly due to high interest rates that suppress economic activity and domestic demand [1] - The inability of demand to spontaneously recover is identified as a primary reason for the lack of internal momentum in growth [1] Investment Weakness - There is a notable lack of investment momentum, particularly in private investment and fixed capital formation, leading to delayed capital expenditures by businesses due to high financing costs and uncertain profit outlooks [1] - The absence of investment sources to drive the next growth cycle is eroding long-term growth potential [1] Economic Outlook and Uncertainties - The global economic outlook is skewed towards a downward trend, with multiple uncertainties affecting recovery, including sustained high interest rates that increase financing costs for businesses and governments [2] - Trade policy uncertainties remain at historically high levels, impacting corporate investment and contributing to a slowdown in global trade [2] Systemic Risks and Climate Impact - Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and regional supply chain restructuring are expected to exacerbate systemic risks by 2025 [3] - Climate-related extreme events are increasing in developing countries, leading to disruptions in food prices and supply chains, which in turn strain public investment [3] Debt Risks - Developing countries face significant debt risks, with 35 out of 68 low-income countries either in or at high risk of debt distress, which could lead to long-term output declines and increased borrowing costs [3] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests major policy shifts to stabilize macroeconomic and financial conditions, including avoiding overly tight monetary policies and expanding fiscal space [4] - It emphasizes the need for a restructured global financial architecture to lower financing costs and enhance funding access for developing countries [4] - A trade system centered on development is recommended to reduce uncertainties and strengthen multilateral cooperation [4] - Addressing climate and debt risks through expanded climate financing and debt architecture reforms is crucial [4] - Coordination among trade and financial policies is essential to effectively respond to systemic downward risks [4]

一方面，需求侧动力不足，全球需求疲弱、消费与投资复苏乏力。报告指出，许多经济体国内支出低 迷，家庭购买力承压，尤其是高利率正在压制经济活动与国内需求，成为导致需求走弱、增长疲软的重 要原因，需求受到压制进一步导致全球制造业疲软且全球贸易动能不足。需求无法自发恢复，是增长缺 乏内生动力的首要原因。 另一方面，投资动力不足，主要体现为私人投资与固定资本形成偏弱。固定投资的疲软以及私人部门投 资的低迷，导致企业受高融资成本、盈利前景不确定性影响，没有恢复扩张意愿，普遍推迟资本支出。 经济体缺少推动下一轮增长的投资来源，长期增长潜力被侵蚀。 日前，联合国贸易和发展会议(贸发会议)发布《2025年度贸易与发展报告》指出，2024年至2025年，全 球经济处于"脆弱韧性"状态，具体表现为表面稳定，但结构疲弱且风险积聚，看似未出现全面衰退，但 恢复力量弱、质量差、易被外部冲击影响。预计2025年全球经济增速将放缓至2.6%，低于2024年的 2.9%。 报告指出，尽管数据并未显示深度衰退，但在全球需求不振、私人投资疲弱、制造业周期低迷、发达经 济体低增长向全球传导等因素的共同作用下，全球增长正从疲弱转为更低的下滑轨道。 此 ...

Core Insights - Zillow has removed climate risk scores from over 1 million property listings due to complaints from real estate agents about declining sales [1][5] - The climate risk score was initially added in September 2024, with over 80% of buyers considering climate risk when purchasing homes [1][5] - The removal of the score has replaced it with a less prominent link to data from the climate risk analysis startup First Street [1][5] Company and Industry Analysis - First Street's climate risk score was first introduced on Realtor.com in 2020 and is still displayed on that platform, as well as on Redfin and Homes.com [1][5] - CRMLS CEO Art Carter expressed concerns that showing the probability of flooding for specific homes could significantly impact their perceived attractiveness [6] - First Street defends its data accuracy, stating that their model is based on transparent, peer-reviewed scientific principles and is continuously validated against real-world outcomes [6] - The real estate and insurance industries are increasingly focused on addressing the severe weather issues caused by climate change, with discussions ongoing between investors, insurance companies, and cities regarding climate risk data [7]

时值《巴黎协定》签署10周年，2025年9月24日，中国新一轮国家自主贡献（NDC）目标在联合国气候 变化峰会上公布。本轮NDC目标锁定全经济范围的温室气体减排，中国力争到2035年全经济范围温室 气体净排放量比峰值至少下降7%至10%。早在2025年7月，中欧曾发表联合声明，将在《联合国气候变 化框架》第30次缔约方大会（COP30）前提交2035年国家自主贡献目标，COP30将对收集的所有NDC 目标进行整合、评估，判断是否符合《巴黎协定》设定的气温升幅控制目标。全球气温增幅控制迫在眉 睫。联合国环境规划署发布的《2024年排放差距报告》显示：全球气温已比工业革命前高出1.3℃，当 前的行动和政策将导致21世纪内全球气温上升2.6℃至3.1℃。中国气象局于2025年6月发布的《中国气候 变化蓝皮书2025》显示，气候系统变暖趋势仍在持续，2024年我国气候风险指数为1961年以来最高，年 平均气温、沿海海平面、天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川消融损失量等监测指标均创下新高。气候风险将严 重影响人类福祉，特别是弱势群体。中国普惠金融研究院于2022年发布的社会责任投资报告指出，气候 变暖对缺乏风险认知和风险管理工具 ...

Core Insights - 95% of countries failed to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) by the UN's February deadline, but major emitters have set 2035 targets, covering 71% of G20 emissions [1] - G20 countries with targets are expected to increase annual emissions reductions from -0.5% to -0.7% (2023-2030) to -2.6% to -3.5% (2030-2035), achieving an additional 13% to 18% reduction over five years [1] Transformation Risk Analysis - Over 70 countries have submitted or announced new 2035 targets despite geopolitical tensions, including major emitters like China, Russia, and Brazil, while the U.S. has withdrawn [3] - The new 2035 targets align with a global temperature increase forecast of 2.2–2.3°C, slightly better than the 2.4°C forecast under NDCs 2.0, but still above the Paris Agreement goal [3] - The acceleration in global emissions reduction is primarily driven by large emerging economies, with some countries like the UK and Australia committing to faster decarbonization, while others like Canada and Japan show slower rates [3] Physical Risk Analysis - By mid-century, climate physical disasters could put an additional 500 million people and $20 trillion GDP at high risk, with a total of 839 million people and $28.3 trillion GDP facing risks by 2050 [3] - Major cities like Tokyo, New York, and Shanghai will see increased exposure to climate risks, with over 80% of Japan's GDP and population facing typhoons at least once every ten years [3] - By 2050, over 327 million people will face extreme heat conditions, and 670 regions will experience severe water stress, impacting health and economic productivity [3] Implications for Investors - Investors must understand how government emission commitments reshape global growth trajectories and asset valuations, as climate physical risks increasingly challenge markets and economies [6] - The report provides detailed risk mapping and forecasts, translating macro climate models into actionable investment decisions [6] - The unique application of the implied temperature rise (ITR) metric offers a clear benchmark for assessing countries' climate goals against the Paris Agreement [8]