| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/8/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 最新 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | -78.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1333.100 | | | 1700.1 | -20.40↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 -42.60↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -367.00 | | | -154.90 | -44.50↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 902.38 60740 | +22.12↑ 4786↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -62.38↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 2235.48 | | | 1,082.14 | -47.98↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1489.68 -61.06↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping capacity in August is relatively high, with an average weekly capacity of 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. However, there is still support from base cargo at the beginning of August. In the next half - month, the market may remain stable or see a slight decline in quotes from some shipping companies [1]. - The downstream is currently booking shipping space for early August (week 30 - 31). The quotes were stable throughout July, around 2400 points. In the fifth week of July (week 31), the quote was $3400, equivalent to around 2400 points on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 2367.3, a change of 33.2, a trading volume of 11341, and an open interest of 13245 [1]. - For different EC futures contracts, there were various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest. For example, EC2510 had a closing price of 1644.7, a change of 755.8, a trading volume of 72757, and an open interest of 52717 [1]. - The month - to - month spreads also showed different trends. For instance, the spread between EC2508 - 2510 was 722.6, with a day - on - day increase of 69.7 [1]. Spot Freight Rate Index - SCHI2 on July 21, 2025, was 2400.5 points, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the previous period [1]. - SCFI on July 18, 2025, was $2079 per TEU, a decrease of 0.95% compared to the previous period [1]. - CCFI on July 18, 2025, was 1803.42 points, an increase of 4.46% compared to the previous period [1]. - NCFI on July 18, 2025, was 1440.25 points, an increase of 0.35% compared to the previous period [1]. - TCI on July 18, 2025, was 1054.56 points, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the previous period [1]. Recent European Line Quotes - The downstream is booking space for early August. Quotes were stable in July, around 2400 points. In week 31 of July, the quote was $3400, equivalent to around 2400 points on the futures market [2]. - On July 21, CMA lowered its quotes. The quote at the end of July decreased from $3645 to $3445, from $4145 to $3745 in early August, and from $5245 to $4145 in late August [2]. Related News - On July 19, Hamas reached a comprehensive cease - fire agreement, but Israel rejected it. Hamas was ready for a long - term battle and was willing to release all hostages in Gaza as part of the cease - fire agreement [3]. - On July 21, the Israeli Defense Forces started a ground operation in southern Deir al - Balah in the central Gaza Strip [3]. - On July 22, US President Trump hoped to end the conflict in Gaza through negotiation, achieve a cease - fire, and secure the release of all hostages [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends on Monday. The main contract EC2510 fell 2.35%, and the rest of the contracts declined between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 2400.50, down 21.40 points from last week, a 0.9% month - on - month decrease. The high - level spot indicators suggest that the previous price increase announcements by leading shipping companies are likely to be implemented successfully, reducing market concerns about peak - season freight rates. The basis repair logic drives the futures prices to fluctuate at high levels [1]. - The US consumer end shows strong resilience, with the retail sales data in June rebounding unexpectedly, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.6%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.1% and an improvement from the previous value of - 0.9%. However, due to the recent intensification of tariff policies, there is still an upward risk of inflation, which may affect future retail data [1]. - China's recent counter - measures against EU products such as brandy and medical devices have intensified Sino - European trade tensions. Amid trade war uncertainties, the demand expectation for the freight index (European line) is weak, and the futures prices fluctuate widely. But the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term [1]. - There is still uncertainty during the window period from July to August when European, Japanese, Vietnamese and other countries renegotiate with the US. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price was 72.3 (up), EC sub - main contract closing price was 2291.900, and the EC2508 - EC2510 spread was +46.30 (up), the EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 699.20, up 74.80 from the previous value; the EC contract basis was - 47.44 (down) [1]. - The EC main contract position decreased by 879 to 14037 hands [1]. Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) decreased by 21.44 to 2400.50, SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) increased by 35.22 to 1301.81; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 86.39 to 1646.90, and the container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) decreased by 0.06 to 1227.97 [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 10.16, CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1803.42, up 77.01; it decreased by 22.00, the Panama - type freight index (daily) was 1919.00, and the Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2052.00, up 14.00 [1]. - The average charter price of Panama - type ships was 14636.00, down 93.00, and the average charter price of Cape - type ships was 22732.00, down 332.00 [1]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, stating that cooperation and win - win are the right path for China and the US, and suppression has no way out. The US should abandon the zero - sum thinking and cancel a series of unreasonable economic and trade restrictive measures against China. Regarding Canada's stricter steel import restrictions, the Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition and will take all necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [1]. - Four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed work to further standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring in - depth promotion of product price monitoring, product consistency supervision and inspection, shortening the accounts payable period of suppliers, etc. The central fourth steering group carried out special research and discussions, demanding to effectively standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry [1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July and expressed concerns about the private - sector recruitment trend. He also said that if Trump nominated him as the Fed Chairman, he would accept. Trump urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates on social media [1]. - EU member states officially approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, for the first time sanctioning the largest refinery of a Russian oil company in India. This round of sanctions also includes banning activities related to the Nord Stream gas pipeline and lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 [1]. - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru held talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, requesting to vigorously promote tariff negotiations. Bessent said that it is possible to reach a beneficial trade consensus for both countries, but "reaching a good consensus is more important than reaching a hasty one" [1]

Report Overview - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on June 25, 2025, focusing on the European shipping line's freight market, including EC futures contracts, freight rate indices, and shipping capacity arrangements [2]. EC Futures Contracts Contract Prices - EC2506 closed at 1888.1 with a 0.27% change, trading volume of 491, and an open interest of 2776 with a decrease of 585. Other contracts like EC2508 (1772.0, -5.49%), EC2510 (1304.6, -4.77%) also showed price changes and trading volumes [2]. Month - to - Month Spreads - For example, the spread between EC2506 - 2508 was 116.1, compared to previous values (8.0, 1.0). Different contract spreads also had various changes [2]. Freight Rate Indices European Line Indices - The TEDA index on June 23, 2025, was 1937.14, up 14.11% from the previous period. SCFI (weekly on Fridays) on June 20 was 1835, down 0.49%. CCFI (daily) was 1578.6, up 6.03%. NCFI was 1299.58, down 0.64%. TCI (daily) remained unchanged at 930.54 [2]. Seasonal Trends - Multiple freight rate indices such as SCFIS, SCFI, NCFI, etc., showed different seasonal trends in the European line and other routes from 2014 - 2025 [9][10][11]. Shipping Capacity Arrangements - In July and August 2025, the average weekly shipping capacities are 293,000 and 304,000 TEU respectively. The OA Alliance's FAL7 route week 28 has a new sailing cancellation. Supply pressure varies in different weeks of July [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - For July, MSK initially opened at $3400, then dropped to $3100. Other carriers started at $3500 - $4000 and then some dropped to around $3500. The average for the first week was $3400, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures [2][3]. News - News includes the organization's statement on military operations against Israel, the International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iran, and the Iranian President's announcement of the end of the war and the start of reconstruction [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - On Monday, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2508 closed down 4.67%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The negative impacts of intensified geopolitical conflicts and tariffs remain unimproved, weakening the support for futures prices. Although the spot - end price indicators have rebounded rapidly, which may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term, the long - term improvement of the trade war still needs to be observed. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1875.000, down 91.9; EC second - main contract closing price: 1370, down 13.60. EC2508 - EC2510 spread: 505.00, down 25.00; EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 344.90, down 5.10. EC contract basis: 62.14, up 254.51. EC main contract open interest: 47053, up 1085 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1937.14, up 239.51, a 14.1% week - on - week increase; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 2083.46, down 825.22. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1869.59, down 218.65. Container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.01. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1342.46, up 99.41; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1578.60, up 89.73. Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1689.00, up 62.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1350.00, up 3.00. Average charter price (Panamax ship): 11242.00, down 65.00; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 19423.00, down 768.00 [1] Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, calling it a violation of the UN Charter and international law, and called for a cease - fire and dialogue. US President Trump claimed that Iranian key nuclear facilities were "completely destroyed", while Iran said the Fordow nuclear facility was not severely damaged. The Iranian parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council. The Director - General of the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the Isfahan nuclear facility suffered extensive damage, the Fordow nuclear facility was directly affected, and the Natanz nuclear facility was attacked again [1] Macroeconomic News - The US raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, 2025. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in June, with a slightly slower pace of interest rate cuts. Chairman Powell said there will be "relatively high inflation" in the coming months, and the US economic activity has declined slightly, with businesses and consumers facing increased policy uncertainty and price pressures [1] Key Data to Watch - Germany's June IFO Business Climate Index at 16:00 on June 24; US April FHFA House Price Index MoM and April S&P/CS20 - City Unadjusted House Price Index YoY at 21:00 on June 24; US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 22:00 on June 24 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On Thursday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2508 closed down 0.11%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 2%. Shipping companies' price hikes slightly supported the futures price. Uncertainty in the trade war and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a cold demand outlook for the Container Shipping Index (European Line), with large price fluctuations. The long - term improvement of the trade war needs to be observed, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk Data - EC main contract closing price: 2146.300, down 2.4; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1356, down 13.3 - EC2508 - EC2510 spread: down 25.80; EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 604.30, down 24.70 - EC contract basis: up 58.57, at - 893.48 - EC main contract open interest: 47254 lots, down 707 [1] Spot Price Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1252.82, up 5.77; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 1718.11, down 1.68 - Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): up 486.59; SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 2072.71, up 0.10 - CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 1117.61, up 10.21; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1375.62, down 16.99 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1489.00, down 59.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1145.00, down 37.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 8568.00, down 95.00; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 20975.00, up 1211.00 [1] Industry News - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that the US economic activity has slightly declined, with businesses and consumers facing rising policy uncertainty and price pressure. Some companies plan to raise prices in the next three months - US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, lower than expected. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao attended the WTO small - scale ministerial meeting in Paris, emphasizing unity and using WTO rules to resolve trade disputes [1] Key Data to Focus On - June 6, 14:00: Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate in April - June 6, 14:45: France's industrial output monthly rate in April - June 6, 17:00: Eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate revised value; Eurozone's retail sales monthly rate in April - June 6, 20:30: US unemployment rate in May; US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls (in 10,000 people) in May [1]