Upcoming Tesla AGM the key focus: China's auto and AI-related ecosystem spans autonomous driving (AD), robotaxis, and robotics. Each is at a different stage of development, but collectively we think they represent one of the largest structural growth opportunities in the next decade. With Tesla's AGM on 6 November likely to feature updates on the company's FSD V14 system, robotaxis, and Optimus, we expect this to trigger renewed market interest. These developments could have material implications across Chi ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future of Li Auto's VLA technology, emphasizing the importance of a reinforced learning loop and the potential for significant advancements in autonomous driving capabilities by 2027 [1][2]. Short-term Outlook - Li Auto aims to establish a reinforced learning loop by the end of 2025, which is expected to enhance user experience significantly, making the vehicle feel more "alive" and responsive [1]. Mid-term Outlook - With the reinforced learning loop in place, Li Auto anticipates surpassing Tesla in the Chinese market due to its advantageous environment for iterative improvements [1]. Long-term Outlook - The VLA technology is projected to achieve Level 4 autonomy, with the expectation of new technologies emerging beyond this milestone [1]. Business Process Transformation - The transition to reinforced learning is not just a technical change but a fundamental business transformation that will create a competitive moat for the company [1][3]. Team Dynamics and Leadership - The restructuring of the autonomous driving team focuses on building a robust business system rather than relying on individual talents, with an emphasis on internal talent development [7][8]. AI and Computational Needs - The current intelligence requirements for driving are considered low, and after the business process reform, clearer insights into computational needs will emerge [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The article suggests that multiple players will exist in the autonomous driving space, and the narrative of having unique capabilities may not constitute a strict competitive moat [2][8]. Data and Model Development - The importance of data quality and distribution in training models is highlighted, with a focus on addressing corner cases to enhance system performance [9]. Strategic Insights - Li Auto's strategy emphasizes the need for substantial resource allocation and continuous investment in AI technology, akin to the role of Elon Musk at Tesla [8][12]. Organizational Structure - The restructuring of the autonomous driving department includes the formation of various specialized teams to enhance operational efficiency and employee engagement [7][11]. Future Projections - By 2027, the industry may shift away from traditional metrics like MPI, indicating a potential evolution in performance evaluation standards [11].

智驾软硬件持续迭代，robotaxi 未来已来 20251102 当前智驾行业内主要车企的技术路线和进展如何？ 目前智驾行业内的技术路线主要分为三类。第一类是端到端算法，这一方向自 特斯拉在 2021 年 AI Day 之后开始受到广泛关注。目前采用端到端算法并实 现量产上车的企业包括 Momenta、特斯拉和极氪等。端到端算法分为一段式 和两段式，目前量产应用的大多是两段式，一段式预计将在今年继续推进相关 工作。其优势在于通过较小算力即可实现城市 OA 功能。 第二类是 VLA（Vision Language Action）模型，代表企业有理想和小鹏。VLA 模型 结合语言模型对环境进行语义级别分析，并将这些信息传递给后续决策模块， 实现控车。然而，VLA 模型依赖语言模型的训练开发，需要大量资源。此外， VLA 对算力要求高，最低需求在 500 TOPS 以上，同时推理速度相对较慢，例 如理想目前能实现的推理速度约为 10 帧左右。 第三类是世界模型，这条技术 路线与 VLA 不冲突，可以结合使用。世界模型能够理解当前环境并预测未来几 秒内场景变化。例如华为、Momenta、地平线等公司正在开发这种方案。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the agricultural chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, with companies like Guangxin Co., Ltd. showing a year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 despite a decline in revenue [3][5][6] - Guangxin Co., Ltd. reported Q3 2025 revenue of 7.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.73%, but net profit increased by 4.85% year-on-year to 1.70 billion yuan due to effective cost control [4][5] - The company’s main agricultural raw materials saw significant price declines, positively impacting its performance, with prices for key materials like dichlorobenzene and methanol dropping by 13.15% and 5.09% respectively [6][7] Group 2 - Huaxia Bank reported a year-on-year increase in net profit of 7.62% for Q3 2025, driven by improved cost and risk management, despite a decline in revenue for the first nine months [12][13] - The bank's net interest margin slightly increased to 1.55%, and its non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.58%, indicating stable asset quality [14][15] - The bank's total assets reached 4.59 trillion yuan, with a deposit growth of 11.0%, providing a stable funding source for business development [13][14] Group 3 - Tesla's Q3 2025 report showed total revenue of 28.1 billion USD, a 12% year-on-year increase, driven by a 7% rise in global electric vehicle deliveries [17][18] - The company's net profit decreased by 37% year-on-year to 1.37 billion USD, primarily due to increased operational costs and R&D expenditures [17][18] - Several automakers have introduced cross-year tax subsidy plans to stimulate demand, indicating a competitive market environment [18][19] Group 4 - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 32.17 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with net profit rising by 12.6% [21][22] - The company experienced seasonal demand fluctuations in Q3 2025, but signs of recovery in demand were noted, particularly in the metal chromium market [23][24] - The average selling price of chromium products showed a slight decline, but the company is positioned to benefit from a projected increase in global chromium salt demand [27][28] Group 5 - Guoguang Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 15.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 6.09% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing by 3.06% [28][29] - The company’s successful promotion of comprehensive crop solutions contributed to its revenue growth, despite a decline in Q3 revenue compared to the previous quarter [30][31] - Guoguang Co., Ltd. plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, emphasizing shareholder returns while continuing to invest in production capacity [33] Group 6 - Chongqing Bank reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with total assets surpassing 1 trillion yuan, indicating strong growth momentum [34][36] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.14%, reflecting stable asset quality and effective risk management [37] - The bank's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 117.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.40%, with net profit rising by 10.19% [35][36] Group 7 - Action Education reported a revenue of 2.22 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.93%, with net profit rising by 42.78% [38][39] - The company’s improved profitability is attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin management training courses [39][40] - Action Education plans to distribute dividends, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns while focusing on growth [40] Group 8 - Southern Media reported a revenue of 23.11 billion yuan for Q3 2025, with a net profit increase of 73.72% year-on-year, driven by an optimized revenue structure [42][43] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 37.5%, indicating effective cost management and a shift away from low-margin businesses [43][44] - Southern Media's cash reserves at the end of Q3 2025 totaled 3.349 billion yuan, providing a solid financial foundation for future operations [44] Group 9 - Yunjigroup reported a revenue of 12.32 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 27.35%, indicating strong operational performance [46] - The company is positioned for long-term growth, supported by a favorable market environment and effective management strategies [46]

你覺得AI 會為了安全 而主動違規嗎？ 想像一下 你開著 FSD 前面路中間 突然出現一個 超大的水坑 如果是以前的 「笨」AI 它會怎麼做？ 它的腦子裡 只有規則 就是不能壓線！ 也不能開到 對向車道！ 所以它會 硬著頭皮 「砰」一聲！ 直直地衝進水坑 但 FSD V14 這個端到端 的大腦 就會完全 不一樣了 它會 先「看」一眼 對向車道是空的 然後方向盤一打 安全地借道 完美繞過去 這說明什麼？ 這說明 FSD 已經擁有了 人類的價值判斷 它學會了 安全和效率 比死守規則 更重要！ 這已經不只是 「看見」了 這是「看懂」 特斯拉 FSD 正在逐漸 具有人性. ...

研 究 / 行 业 点 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 (8621)23297818× zhufz@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 看好 ——2025/10/20-2025/10/24 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 汽车 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 2025 年 10 月 26 日 特斯拉强调智驾和人形机器人为重 要增长引擎，科技仍是板块重点 产 业 行 业 评 - ⚫ 观点：10 月 23 日，特斯拉发布 2025 年第三季度财报，自动驾驶汽车和人形机器人被 视为特斯拉未来重要的增长点：1）马斯克提到"特斯拉约 80%的价值将来自 Optimus"，特斯拉计划在 2026 年开始大规模量产第三代人形机器人 Optimus， 2026 年底最高年产能达 100 万台；2） FSD V14 在美国全面开放用户升级，付费 FSD 用户占车队约 12%，这也是特斯 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - Tesla achieved a record high in quarterly deliveries, with 497,000 vehicles delivered in Q3 2025, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.4% and a year-on-year growth of 29.4% [2]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached $28.1 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was $1.37 billion, reflecting a 37% year-on-year decline [1][2]. - The average revenue per vehicle decreased slightly to $42,700, with a year-on-year decline of $600 [2]. - Tesla's FSD V14 was released in October, enhancing its capabilities in complex scenarios, and the next-generation AI chip, AI5, is set to significantly improve performance [2]. - The third-generation humanoid robot, Optimus V3, is scheduled for release in Q1 2026, with a production capacity target of 1 million units annually by the end of 2026 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue from automotive business was $21.21 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 27.3% [2]. - Carbon credit revenue fell to $420 million, a decrease of 43.6% year-on-year [2]. - Gross margin for Q3 was 18.0%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with automotive manufacturing gross margin at 15.4%, down 1.7 percentage points [2]. Product Development - Tesla launched standard versions of Model 3/Y in early October to counteract the expiration of a $7,500 federal tax credit [2]. - The Cybercab and Semi truck are expected to enter mass production in 2026 [2]. Market Position - Tesla is viewed as a benchmark in the smart driving sector, leveraging its AI capabilities and mass production to create new business models such as FSD subscriptions and Robotaxi services [3]. - Recommendations include investing in companies like Seres, Li Auto, Xpeng, and Xiaomi, as well as core suppliers like Horizon Robotics [3].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in real estate sales, with new home sales in 30 cities dropping by 1.1% month-on-month, marking a new low for the same period in recent years, and a year-on-year decline of 26.6% [4] - The report indicates a decrease in the operating rates of coking, asphalt, and cement industries, suggesting that infrastructure work needs to accelerate [4] - It notes that, apart from coal, prices of major industrial products have mostly fallen, with pork prices rapidly declining, raising questions about the sustainability of price increases in October [4] Group 2: Financial Data Analysis - In September, the total fiscal revenue showed a slight year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while fiscal expenditure continued to decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% [5] - The report mentions that the new social financing growth rate in September was 8.7%, with a slight decrease from the previous month, while the total social financing for the month was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.23 trillion yuan [16] - The report indicates that the M2 money supply growth rate was 8.4%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [17] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The report discusses the coal industry, predicting that global coal consumption will peak in the latter half of the next decade and then decline, primarily due to reduced coal use in China and developed countries [19] - It emphasizes that by 2050, China's coal consumption is expected to decrease by about 20%, significantly impacting global coal supply dynamics [20] - The report recommends several coal companies, including Lu'an Huanneng and Yanzhou Coal Mining, highlighting their performance potential in the changing market landscape [21] Group 4: Consumer Goods and Services - The report notes that the white liquor market is stabilizing, with key brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai showing strong long-term growth potential [24] - It highlights the performance of consumer goods companies, suggesting that brands like Qingdao Beer and Yili may benefit from policy support and recovery trends [24] - The report indicates that the sportswear brand Xtep is performing steadily, with a projected net profit growth for the coming years [37] Group 5: Technology and AI - The report discusses the performance of Cambricon Technologies, noting a significant revenue increase of 1333% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with expectations for continued growth driven by AI trends [32][35] - It highlights Hikvision's strong performance in Q3 2025, with a net profit increase of 20.3% year-on-year, reflecting effective management and market positioning [36] - The report suggests that the AI sector is expected to see substantial growth, with Cambricon positioned to benefit from national policies promoting technological independence [33]

Core Insights - The article discusses the advancements and features of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 14.1, highlighting its potential to achieve a level of "unsupervised" driving experience, surpassing previous versions in terms of safety and functionality [9]. Group 1: FSD V14.1 Features - FSD V14.1 introduces new arrival options for parking, allowing users to select various parking locations such as parking lots, streets, driveways, garages, or curbside [7]. - The update enhances the system's ability to yield for emergency vehicles and improves navigation by integrating routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads [7][8]. - Additional features include improved handling of static and dynamic gates, better management of road debris, and enhanced performance in various driving scenarios such as unprotected turns and lane changes [7][8]. Group 2: Technical Advancements - FSD V14.1 aims to cover a broader range of driving scenarios, optimizing performance in parking situations and simplifying user interface design for better efficiency [8]. - The update introduces a "most conservative" driving mode and offers more parking options upon arrival, catering to personalized user preferences [8]. - Significant improvements have been made in handling long-tail scenarios, including navigating around road debris, yielding to special vehicles, and managing system faults [8]. Group 3: Real-World Testing and Performance - Real-world testing of FSD V14.1 has demonstrated its ability to navigate complex environments, such as underground parking lots and construction zones, showcasing its advanced text recognition capabilities [12][15]. - The system has shown improved understanding of traffic signs and hand signals, indicating a significant leap in its contextual awareness and decision-making abilities [18]. - FSD V14.1 has also integrated audio signals into its control model, allowing it to detect emergency vehicles based on sirens, enhancing its situational awareness [21][28]. Group 4: Future Developments - The article mentions that FSD V14.1 is just the beginning, with future updates (V14.2 and V14.3) expected to further enhance the system's capabilities [27]. - There is speculation that the architecture of FSD V14 may incorporate a Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model, which could significantly improve its performance across various driving scenarios [25][28]. - The potential increase in model parameters and context length is anticipated to enhance the system's understanding and decision-making processes, bringing it closer to achieving a level of "awakening" in AI capabilities [28].

FSD and Technology - Tesla's FSD (Supervised) v14.1%.2 introduces "Mad Max" mode, showcasing confidence in system stability and safety [1] - The industry acknowledges that computers can handle "extreme driving" better than humans due to superior precision and calculation [1] - Tesla engineers are aware of "phantom braking" issues in V14 but prioritize safety over smoothness, adopting a "better safe than sorry" strategy [1] - Tesla employs "Model Compression" techniques (Quantization, Pruning, Distillation) to fit AI models trained on 120,000 NVIDIA GPUs into an 8GB chip [1] - The company focuses on software optimization over hardware upgrades, viewing it as a more scalable approach [1] Financial Analysis and Market Position - Tesla's stock closed at $428.75, down 1.85% with a trading volume of 76.58 million shares [1] - Barclays raised Tesla's target price to $350, citing the accelerating autonomous driving and AI narrative [1] - DHL plans to integrate Tesla Semi trucks into its US transportation network by 2026 after successful testing [2] - Tesla has begun production of the Model Y Standard version at Giga Texas, aiming for lower prices and broader market reach [2] - Cybercab is being tested in California, reflecting Tesla's progress in Robotaxi development [2]