智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，从海外各烟草巨头2025年发展来看，传统卷烟销量下滑已是 不可逆转的趋势，各烟草巨头均将新型烟草作为保障公司长期发展的核心动力。英法等国已全面禁止一 次性烟，欧洲市场正处于由一次性向换弹式、类换弹式及开放式产品需求转换过程中，合规企业发展机 遇正重新开启。HNB方面，各烟草巨头竞相布局其中，美国市场26年有望正式开启，其全球渗透率有 望进一步提升，将带来广阔扩容空间。凭借Hilo优秀的产品性能且BAT进一步完善营销策略后，Hilo有 望重塑当前HNB竞争格局。 国金证券主要观点如下： 菲莫国际：25Q3新型烟草延续较优增长，期待26年IQOS登陆美国市场 2025Q1-Q3，菲莫国际新型烟草业务实现营收125亿元，同比增长16.0%%，收入占比同比提升3.0pct至 41.3%，其中25Q3新型烟草营收同比+18.9%至44亿美元，延续较优增长态势。 加热烟草方面，25Q1-Q3公司HNB出货量达1167亿支，同比增长12.2%，其中25Q3出货量同比+15.5%至 408.36亿支。截止25Q3，IQOS全球市占率同比提升0.5pct至5.8%，环比25Q2提升0.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing crackdown on illegal vaping products in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, leading to an expansion of the compliant market [3][4]. - The company's adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 688-787 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [2]. - The report highlights the improvement in the company's profitability due to a higher proportion of high-margin products in the vaping segment and the ongoing development of the HNB (Heat-not-Burn) business [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [2]. - The projected net profit for the first half of 2025 is estimated to be between 443-541 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decline of 21% to 35% [2]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 11.168 billion yuan in 2023 to 19.693 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.09% [10]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.21 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.58 yuan by 2027 [5]. Business Segment Analysis - The vaping business is showing signs of recovery due to stricter regulations against illegal products, particularly in the U.S. where the FDA has intensified enforcement [3]. - The company is positioned uniquely as the only listed entity deeply integrated into the supply chain of both vaping and HNB products for major tobacco groups in overseas markets [4]. - The report anticipates that the company's product structure will continue to improve, leading to enhanced profitability in the vaping segment [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing sector, new tobacco products, and packaging industries, while indicating a cautious stance on the two-wheeler market due to recent trends [4][10][11][15]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize and recover due to continued government subsidies, with a total of 138 billion yuan allocated for the second half of 2025 [4][9]. - The new tobacco sector shows promising growth potential, particularly with the launch of BAT's Glo hilo in Japan, which is anticipated to perform well [10]. - The paper and packaging industry is facing weak price trends, but cultural paper prices may recover due to upcoming publishing orders [11]. - The light consumer goods and pet sectors are experiencing varied performance, with a focus on innovative products and market expansion [12]. - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a slowdown in growth, but there are opportunities for market share gains among leading brands [15]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing sector is supported by government subsidies, with 138 billion yuan allocated for the second half of 2025, which is expected to stimulate demand [4][9]. - Recent sales data shows a decline in new and second-hand home transactions, indicating a need for stabilization in the market [4][9]. - Key companies recommended include Sophia, Gujia Home, and Mousse [4][9]. New Tobacco Sector - The HNB product Glo hilo is set to launch in Japan, with expectations for strong market performance [10]. - The vaping market is expanding, with regulatory actions in the US aimed at curbing illegal products, which may benefit compliant companies [10]. Paper and Packaging Sector - Prices for wood pulp remain weak, but cultural paper prices may see recovery due to seasonal demand from publishing [11]. - Recommendations include companies with strong market positions and stable dividends in the packaging sector [11]. Light Consumer Goods and Pet Sector - The sector is focusing on offline growth and new product cycles, with a notable emphasis on AI technology in product development [12]. - Companies like Guibao Pet and Miniso are highlighted for their growth potential [12]. Two-Wheeler Sector - The two-wheeler market is experiencing a slowdown, but leading companies are expected to maintain good growth rates in their mid-year reports [15]. - Recommendations include Yadi Holdings and Aima Technology, focusing on product innovation and market expansion [15].

Group 1: Consumer Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of traditional core assets with improving fundamentals, suggesting a high-low cut strategy as new consumption has established a high valuation system of 30-60X PE, with traditional assets expected to recover in valuation due to liquidity easing and public fund underweighting [1][9] - Companies such as Anta Sports, Yadea Holdings, and Yutong Technology are highlighted as having potential for recovery in their performance starting from Q3 2025 [1][9] - The report recommends holding high-conversion new consumption leaders like Pop Mart and Smoore International, while also embracing traditional companies with new consumption thinking, which may lead to a double boost in valuation and performance [1][9] Group 2: Home Appliances - Online sales data for May shows significant year-on-year growth in major appliances: refrigerators (+3.9%), washing machines (+32.2%), and air conditioners (+46.0%), while offline sales also reflect strong growth [4][14] - The report notes that the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on steel-containing home appliances starting June 23, which is expected to have a limited impact on exports from China due to the high local production ratio of these appliances [14][16] - The overall outlook for white goods and black goods remains positive, with kitchen appliances stabilizing and vacuum cleaners maintaining high demand [16] Group 3: Light Industry Manufacturing - The new tobacco sector is showing upward momentum, with British American Tobacco's Glo Hilo successfully launched in Japan, indicating a clear growth trend in the HNB industry [4][9] - The home furnishings market is stabilizing at the bottom, with domestic sales remaining weak but potential for recovery in exports [10][11] - The toy industry is experiencing high demand, with significant online sales growth reported for blind boxes and figurines [11] Group 4: Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector continues to show high consumption levels, with optimistic sales during the 618 shopping festival, particularly in new retail formats [12][13] - The report highlights the easing of U.S. tariff concerns, which may lead to increased orders from American brands, boosting domestic manufacturing capacity and employment [12] Group 5: Retail and E-commerce - The report indicates that the retail sector is facing slight pressure, with e-commerce showing signs of stabilization, particularly with AI integration enhancing operational efficiency [17] - Offline retail is undergoing transformation with initiatives like Yonghui's "Craftsman Plan" aimed at improving service quality and profitability [17]