Group 1: Consumer Strategy and Investment Recommendations - The investment opportunities in consumer sectors are divided into new consumption and dividend+consumption dimensions. New consumption saw strong excess returns in Q2 2025, but in July, market focus shifted due to high expectations and emerging sectors like PCB and innovative drugs, leading to a significant decline in stock prices [2][8] - The next systematic allocation for both new consumption and dividend+consumption is expected around late August during the intensive disclosure period of mid-year reports, with the outcome of US-China tariffs on August 12 indicating the next consumption allocation direction [2][8] Group 2: Light Industry Manufacturing - New tobacco products are showing a steady upward trend, with HNB products reaching 5 billion units in H1 2025, a 29.5% year-on-year increase. BAT's HNB revenue is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year [16] - The home furnishing sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with weak domestic sales but potential growth for resilient soft furniture companies [17] - The paper industry is also stabilizing, with inventory trends indicating a gradual decrease, although prices remain flat due to weak downstream demand [17] Group 3: Textile and Apparel - The apparel sector is experiencing mixed results, with a 1.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales in June, influenced by various factors. Focus is recommended on unique alpha companies and those with significant advantages in sub-sectors [20] - The export sector is recovering, aided by reduced tariffs from the US, although uncertainties remain in US-China tariff negotiations [20] Group 4: Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector is facing a decline in retail sales, with a 2.3% year-on-year drop in June. Recommendations include focusing on leading companies with stable mid-year performance and those with significant rebound potential [21] Group 5: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is seeing a slight decrease in production, with a total of 26.97 million units produced in August, down 4.9% year-on-year. Notably, the global TV shipment volume decreased by 1.5% in the first half of the year, with domestic brands showing growth [22][23] Group 6: Retail and E-commerce - The retail sector is under slight pressure, with supermarkets and department stores facing challenges, while e-commerce is stabilizing at the bottom. Yonghui's recent fundraising plan aims to reduce debt and improve operational efficiency [24] Group 7: Social Services - The tea beverage sector remains high in demand, benefiting from delivery subsidies, while the restaurant industry is stabilizing. The tourism sector maintains high demand, and the education sector shows resilience [25]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on various sectors, indicating a stable recovery in the home furnishing and paper packaging sectors, while new tobacco and packaging sectors show robust growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to see marginal improvement in domestic demand due to government support for consumption upgrades, with a focus on companies with high dividend yields and growth certainty for 2025 [5][10]. - The new tobacco sector is experiencing growth, particularly in heated tobacco products (HTP), with significant sales increases reported in Europe and a growing user base for IQOS [11]. - The paper packaging sector is facing a gradual recovery in pulp prices, with a focus on companies that maintain strong market positions and high dividends [12]. - The light consumer goods and pet food sectors are under pressure, but there are opportunities in innovative product launches and channel expansion [15]. - The two-wheeler sector is poised for a rebound with government subsidies and new standards expected to drive demand [16][17]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Domestic sales are expected to improve due to government initiatives, with a focus on companies with strong growth prospects and high dividends [5][10]. - Export figures show a slight increase in June, but a cumulative decline for the first half of the year [10]. New Tobacco - HNB sales increased by 10.5% year-on-year, with a growing user base for IQOS [11]. - The regulatory environment in the U.S. is tightening, which may benefit compliant market players [11]. Paper Packaging - Pulp prices have shown slight increases, but overall market conditions remain challenging [12]. - Companies with strong market positions and dividend policies are recommended for investment [12]. Light Consumer Goods & Pet Food - The sector is facing challenges, but there are opportunities in new product launches and expanding distribution channels [15]. - Online sales data indicates mixed performance across different product categories [23]. Two-Wheeler - The sector is expected to benefit from government subsidies and new regulations, with a focus on companies that can leverage these changes for growth [16][17]. - Recent data shows a significant number of electric bikes being replaced under the subsidy program [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a focus on companies with high earnings growth certainty and relatively high dividend support in the domestic market [4][9]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows a year-on-year increase of 28.7% in furniture retail sales in June, but demand has weakened since July due to the lack of new government subsidies [4][9]. - The new tobacco sector is witnessing a recovery, with Smoore's H1 2025 revenue expected to grow by 18% year-on-year, indicating stabilization in the vaping business [15][16]. - The paper and packaging industry is experiencing price stabilization, with expectations for a recovery in demand for white cardboard and cultural paper [17][18]. - The light industry and personal care sector is facing a downturn, but there are investment opportunities in leading brands [19][20]. - The toy sector, particularly Bubble Mart, is highlighted for its strong performance, with a 94% year-on-year increase in online sales of blind boxes in Q2 [21][22]. - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a rebound in Q3, driven by new policies in Vietnam promoting electric vehicle replacements [22][31]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Retail sales of furniture increased by 28.7% year-on-year in June, but demand has weakened since July due to subsidy issues [4][9]. - The overall real estate investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year in June, with residential construction area down by 4.3% [4][9]. New Tobacco Sector - Smoore's H1 2025 revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the vaping market [15][16]. - The FDA's recent approvals for JUUL products suggest a positive trend in the U.S. compliance market [15][16]. Paper and Packaging Sector - Paper prices are stabilizing, with expectations for recovery in demand for specific paper types [17][18]. - The packaging sector is seeing improvements in profitability for metal packaging companies due to industry consolidation [17][18]. Light Industry and Personal Care - The sector is experiencing a downturn, but leading brands are still seen as investment opportunities [19][20]. - Online sales for personal care products have shown mixed results, with some categories facing increased competition [20][23]. Toy Sector - Bubble Mart is highlighted for its strong performance, with a 209% year-on-year increase in GMV [21][22]. - The overall toy market is benefiting from new operational models and IP advantages [21][22]. Two-Wheeler Market - The market is expected to rebound in Q3, with new policies in Vietnam promoting electric vehicle replacements [22][31]. - Leading companies in the sector are expected to show good growth in their mid-year reports [22][31].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on undervalued downstream brands or OEM industries with low expectations and dividend attributes, indicating a positive investment outlook for these sectors [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to identify high-potential companies that can generate quality profits, particularly in the new consumption sector, as the market approaches the mid-year reporting season [2]. - It highlights the importance of focusing on companies with strong brand power and those that can benefit from the ongoing expansion of the overseas market, particularly in the context of the new consumption narrative [2][20]. - The report also notes that various sectors, such as light manufacturing, textiles, and home appliances, are showing signs of stabilization or growth, suggesting potential investment opportunities [3][5][25]. Summary by Relevant Sections Light Manufacturing - New tobacco products are expected to grow steadily, with a clear expansion trend in the overseas vaping market and a positive outlook for the HNB industry [3][20]. - The home furnishings sector is stabilizing, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate resilience and growth potential [3][20]. - The paper industry is entering a demand peak in Q3, with significant price recovery potential [3][21]. - The toy industry continues to expand, with strong performance from leading companies like Pop Mart [3][21]. Textiles and Apparel - The apparel sector is experiencing weak consumer demand, but there are opportunities in unique and differentiated brands, especially in new retail formats [3][23]. - The export market faces uncertainties due to potential tariffs, which could impact pricing and demand [3][23]. Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector is advised to focus on leading companies with strong mid-year performance and those with significant potential for price recovery [3][24]. Home Appliances - Skyworth's acquisition of Philips' North American business is expected to enhance its market presence and product offerings in high-end segments [3][25]. - The TV market is experiencing price declines, but demand is anticipated to recover in Q3 [3][25][26]. Retail and Social Services - The retail sector is under pressure, but there are signs of improvement in certain areas, such as instant retail and dining services [3][27][28]. - The report notes that the tourism and restaurant sectors are maintaining high levels of activity, indicating a positive trend [3][27]. Overall Market Trends - The report suggests that the new consumption narrative is gaining traction, with a focus on companies that can deliver high-quality profits and those that are well-positioned for growth in the evolving market landscape [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing sector, new tobacco products, and packaging industries, while indicating a cautious stance on the two-wheeler market due to recent trends [4][10][11][15]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize and recover due to continued government subsidies, with a total of 138 billion yuan allocated for the second half of 2025 [4][9]. - The new tobacco sector shows promising growth potential, particularly with the launch of BAT's Glo hilo in Japan, which is anticipated to perform well [10]. - The paper and packaging industry is facing weak price trends, but cultural paper prices may recover due to upcoming publishing orders [11]. - The light consumer goods and pet sectors are experiencing varied performance, with a focus on innovative products and market expansion [12]. - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a slowdown in growth, but there are opportunities for market share gains among leading brands [15]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing sector is supported by government subsidies, with 138 billion yuan allocated for the second half of 2025, which is expected to stimulate demand [4][9]. - Recent sales data shows a decline in new and second-hand home transactions, indicating a need for stabilization in the market [4][9]. - Key companies recommended include Sophia, Gujia Home, and Mousse [4][9]. New Tobacco Sector - The HNB product Glo hilo is set to launch in Japan, with expectations for strong market performance [10]. - The vaping market is expanding, with regulatory actions in the US aimed at curbing illegal products, which may benefit compliant companies [10]. Paper and Packaging Sector - Prices for wood pulp remain weak, but cultural paper prices may see recovery due to seasonal demand from publishing [11]. - Recommendations include companies with strong market positions and stable dividends in the packaging sector [11]. Light Consumer Goods and Pet Sector - The sector is focusing on offline growth and new product cycles, with a notable emphasis on AI technology in product development [12]. - Companies like Guibao Pet and Miniso are highlighted for their growth potential [12]. Two-Wheeler Sector - The two-wheeler market is experiencing a slowdown, but leading companies are expected to maintain good growth rates in their mid-year reports [15]. - Recommendations include Yadi Holdings and Aima Technology, focusing on product innovation and market expansion [15].