Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 300, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of RMB 247.08 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 1H25 was significantly under pressure, with revenue of RMB 16.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and a net profit of RMB 4.9 billion, down 33% year-on-year. However, there is a clear expectation for revenue recovery starting in 3Q25, with projected positive year-on-year growth [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in domestic equipment bidding projects will gradually convert into revenue, leading to further revenue growth in 4Q25. The low base effect from the previous year is expected to accelerate revenue and net profit growth in 2026 [1][8]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue and net profit forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - Revenue: RMB 34.93 billion in 2023, RMB 36.73 billion in 2024, RMB 37.08 billion in 2025E, RMB 45.94 billion in 2026E, and RMB 53.25 billion in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.0%, 5.1%, 1.0%, 23.9%, and 15.9% respectively [2][10]. - Net profit: RMB 11.58 billion in 2023, RMB 11.67 billion in 2024, RMB 11.39 billion in 2025E, RMB 14.49 billion in 2026E, and RMB 17.40 billion in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 0.7%, -2.4%, 27.2%, and 20.1% respectively [2][10]. - The report highlights that the company's international revenue is expected to continue to grow, with a projected double-digit growth rate for the second half of 2025 [1][8]. Segment Analysis - Domestic revenue saw a significant decline of 33% in 1H25, primarily due to prolonged weak bidding conditions for equipment, while international revenue grew by 5%, now accounting for 50% of total revenue [8]. - The report notes that the IVD segment experienced a 16% decline in revenue, attributed to price reductions from centralized procurement and a decrease in testing volumes due to policy changes. However, international IVD business showed resilience with a 12% growth [8].

28 August 2025 | 2:58PM CST Mindray (300760.SZ): Earnings review: 1H25 miss on faster channel inventory destocking; guides for a turning point in Q3; Buy Mindray reported 1H25 results on Aug 27, 2025. 1H25 revenue decreased by 18.4% (-7.4% vs. GSe), where we saw both China revenue (-33.4% yoy) and overseas revenue (+5.4% yoy) were lower-than-expected mainly due to 1) China's channel inventory destocking in 2Q25 despite strong procurement activities; and 2) weaker performance in patient monitor and life supp ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in China's healthcare reform, particularly focusing on the medical device industry, highlighting the shift towards quality-driven procurement, credit evaluation systems, and the integration of innovative technologies into the healthcare payment system. Group 1: Procurement and Quality Control - The 11th batch of national drug procurement has been officially launched, emphasizing four principles: stabilizing clinical use, ensuring quality, preventing collusion, and countering internal competition [2] - New rules require that production lines must not have GMP violations within two years, and all selected companies must undergo comprehensive inspections [3] - The trend of "de-emphasizing low prices" is accelerating in high-value consumables procurement, with new mechanisms like clinical recommendations and quality reviews being introduced [3] Group 2: Credit Evaluation System - A dual-dimensional credit evaluation system has been established to address issues of market manipulation and excessive pricing by some companies [4] - By the end of 2024, 735 companies have been identified as untrustworthy, leading to restrictions on their procurement qualifications [4] - The new market entry logic emphasizes compliance and quality-driven operations, marking a shift from previous practices [4] Group 3: Pricing and Payment Reforms - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) is actively managing price risks, having completed eight rounds of price checks involving 566 companies and 726 product specifications [5] - The payment model has shifted from a "post-payment" to a "pre-payment" system, with total healthcare expenditure expected to reach 2.98 trillion yuan in 2024, reducing patient out-of-pocket expenses by approximately 5% [9] - The integration of innovative technologies into the payment system is accelerating, particularly for companies involved in AI imaging and interventional consumables [10] Group 4: Immediate Settlement and Direct Payment - The immediate settlement mechanism has been implemented in 91% of the national healthcare areas, reducing the settlement cycle from 30 to 20 working days [11] - The direct payment mechanism for selected companies is being promoted, which could significantly benefit cash-sensitive small and medium-sized medical device companies [11] Group 5: Regulatory Oversight and Compliance - The NHSA is enhancing its regulatory oversight, with a focus on compliance and transparency in the supply chain [12] - The establishment of big data models for monitoring healthcare practices is underway, with a focus on identifying and addressing fraudulent activities [14] - Future regulations will emphasize the tracking of medical devices and the ability to close data loops, which will directly impact market performance [17] Group 6: Innovations in Medical Services - The NHSA is accelerating reforms in medical service pricing, with over 100 projects focusing on cutting-edge technology and urgent clinical needs [18] - This creates a pathway for the integration of innovative medical devices into clinical use, payment, and service pricing [19] Group 7: Strategic Directions for Medical Device Companies - The article outlines five key areas for medical device companies to focus on in light of the ongoing healthcare reforms, emphasizing the need for quality, compliance, and value recognition [20][23]

Group 1: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is expected to see a recovery in performance in H2 2025, driven by the resumption of hospital tenders and inventory clearance [5][34]. - High-value consumables are anticipated to benefit from significant domestic substitution opportunities and the completion of centralized procurement, leading to improved performance elasticity for companies [5][24]. - The home medical sector is projected to recover growth due to an improved consumer environment and ongoing new product investments [5][35]. - The IVD (in vitro diagnostics) sector is expected to enter a structural recovery phase, with head companies and differentiated competitors seeking innovation and overseas expansion [5][28]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the medical device sector include Xinhua Medical, Kaili Medical, Mindray Medical, and Union Medical, with a focus on those benefiting from tender recovery and overseas expansion [5][36]. - For high-value consumables, companies like Microelectrophysiology and Microinvasive Medical are highlighted, particularly those in electrophysiology, orthopedics, and coronary intervention [5][36]. - IVD companies with high technical barriers and continuous new product launches, such as Aide Biological, are also recommended [5][36]. Group 3: Chain Pharmacies - The chain pharmacy sector is experiencing a recovery in performance expectations and valuation due to diversified product expansion [41]. - The industry is witnessing an acceleration in store closures and a slowdown in new openings, with leading companies expected to increase their market share [42][60]. - Recommended leading pharmacy companies include Dazhenlin, Yifeng Pharmacy, and Laobaixing, with a focus on those with superior management capabilities [43][87]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Dynamics - The valuation of chain pharmacies has seen recovery due to improved profit growth expectations and diversified strategies [47]. - The supply side is facing stricter drug price controls, but leading pharmacies are expected to maintain better pricing power due to their market position [56]. - The industry is undergoing adjustments, with leading companies likely to recover profit growth in 2025 as they adapt to market changes [74][79].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 328.30 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 367.26 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 116.68 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% and 0.7% respectively. The profit was below market expectations due to delays in domestic equipment upgrade policies [1]. - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2025, driven by the acceleration of domestic equipment upgrade policies and ongoing efforts in product promotion both domestically and internationally [1]. - The company’s three core business segments are projected to perform well in 2025: 1. IVD segment revenue reached RMB 137.65 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and strong overseas growth [2]. 2. Medical imaging segment revenue was RMB 74.98 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, supported by the launch of high-end products [2]. 3. Life information and support segment revenue was RMB 135.57 billion, down 11.1% year-on-year, but expected to rebound in 2025 due to improving domestic policies [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 1Q25 was RMB 82.37 billion, with a net profit of RMB 26.29 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.1% and 16.8% respectively, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.8% and 154.9% [1]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 40.545 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 12.84 billion, reflecting a growth of 10.04% [6]. Market Expansion - The company’s overseas revenue reached RMB 164.34 billion in 2024, growing by 21.3%, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific and European regions [3]. - Domestic revenue was RMB 202.92 billion, down 5.1% year-on-year, but expected to improve in 2025 due to the release of medical infrastructure orders and enhanced competitiveness [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The EPS forecast for 2025 is adjusted to RMB 10.59, with a PE ratio of 31x for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 328.30 [4]. - The company is recognized as a leading domestic medical device manufacturer with strong brand influence and a continuously improving global sales network [4].