根据 Wind 数据，本周申万一级行业医药生物上涨 0.14%，涨幅排名位列申 万 31 个一级行业第 15 位。沪深 300 指数下跌 1.33%，医药跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.47 个百分点。 证券研究报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 体外诊断行业周报 医保新场景驱动 IVD 迈向"AI+服务"新生态 --体外诊断行业周报 2026.2.2-2026.2.7 相关研究： 核心要点： 本周医药生物上涨 0.14%，体外诊断下跌 1.28% 申万医药生物二级子行业医疗服务 II 报收 6827.17 点，上涨 1.31%；中药 II 报收 6282.76 点，上涨 2.56%；化学制药Ⅱ报收 12759.67 点，下跌 0.62%； 生物制品Ⅱ报收 6271.33 点，下跌 1.82%；医药商业Ⅱ报收 5434.98 点，上 涨 0.57%；医疗器械 II 报收 6635.59 点，下跌 0.13%。三级行业中体外诊 断报收 8218.64 点，下跌 1.28%。 从医疗服务板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有：赛科希德（+14.5%）、 睿昂基因（+3.1%）、仁度生物（+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The invisible orthodontics industry in China is experiencing a significant transformation, with leading manufacturers maintaining steady growth while smaller players face pressure due to pricing challenges. The market penetration of invisible orthodontics is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, driven by rising consumer awareness and demand for aesthetic solutions [12][25][31]. Market Overview - The CITIC Medical Index decreased by 0.72%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.15 percentage points, ranking 16th among 30 primary industries [7]. - The top ten stocks by growth this week included Baolait, Hualan, and Tianzhihang, while the bottom ten included Xiangrikui and 51 Changyao [7]. Industry and Stock Events - The invisible orthodontics market in China is projected to grow, with the penetration rate increasing from 11% in 2020 to an estimated 25% by 2030. The penetration rate for adults was 38.9% in 2020, while for children and adolescents, it was only 4.5% [17][24]. - The average selling price (ASP) of invisible orthodontics is under pressure due to increased competition and price wars among manufacturers, leading to a decline in market revenue growth compared to the number of cases [24][25]. - The leading companies, such as Times Angel and Invisalign, hold over 70% of the market share, with Times Angel maintaining growth in case numbers despite industry challenges [25][31]. Domestic Market Dynamics - The demand for invisible orthodontics is expanding in lower-tier cities, with the proportion of cases in third-tier and below cities rising from 22% in 2021 to 29% in 2023 [18]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards head manufacturers as smaller firms struggle to compete, leading to an accelerated market consolidation [25]. International Market Trends - The global invisible orthodontics market is expected to reach $4.8 billion by 2024, with North America dominating the market share at 56.9% [31][32]. - Chinese manufacturers are increasingly entering international markets, with Times Angel reporting a significant increase in overseas cases, which accounted for 39% of its total cases by 2024 [32]. Future Outlook - The invisible orthodontics industry is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory, with increasing consumer awareness and a shift towards aesthetic dental solutions. The market is expected to see further consolidation as smaller players exit due to competitive pressures [25][31].

Summary of Shenzhen Mindray (300760.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - Shenzhen Mindray is a leading medical device manufacturer in China, with three core segments: Patient Monitoring and Life Support (PMLS), In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD), and Medical Imaging, contributing 37%, 38%, and 20% of total revenue respectively in FY24 [24][25]. Key Industry Insights - The China medtech sector is supported by government initiatives, an aging population, and increasing healthcare spending, with a recovery in hospital procurement expected in 2026 [3]. - Mindray's overseas business accounts for over 50% of its revenue, with a target to double market share in emerging markets within five years [1][3]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Earnings Summary**: - 2023 Net Profit: Rmb 11,582 million, EPS: Rmb 9.558, P/E: 21.3 [5]. - 2024 Net Profit: Rmb 11,668 million, EPS: Rmb 9.558, P/E: 21.3 [5]. - 2025E Net Profit: Rmb 9,488 million, EPS: Rmb 7.772, P/E: 26.2 [5]. - 2026E Net Profit: Rmb 10,982 million, EPS: Rmb 8.996, P/E: 22.6 [5]. - 2027E Net Profit: Rmb 12,501 million, EPS: Rmb 10.240, P/E: 19.9 [5]. - Expected total return of 42.7% with a target price of Rmb 285, indicating a potential upside of 39.9% from the current price of Rmb 203.680 [6][10]. Strategic Initiatives - **Growth Acceleration**: Management anticipates a return to positive domestic growth in 2026 and further acceleration in 2027, following a temporary margin dip due to strategic investments [1][2]. - **Innovation & High-End Shift**: Focus on high-margin products and a recurring revenue model, particularly in IVD reagents and high-end ultrasound devices [1][2]. - **Digital Ecosystem**: Development of integrated smart hospital solutions combining equipment, IT, and AI to create a competitive advantage [1][19]. Market Position and Valuation - Mindray is viewed as undervalued compared to domestic peers, trading at approximately 23x FY26 P/E versus 38x for peers [2]. - The company aims to increase overseas revenue contributions to 70% of total revenue and become one of the top 20 global medical device companies in the next 5-10 years [25]. Risks and Challenges - Key risks include geopolitical tensions affecting revenue, potential adverse impacts from Group Purchasing Organizations (GPO), patent protection issues, and supply chain disruptions [27]. - The company must navigate challenges in accurately assessing technological trends and customer needs to maintain its competitive position [27]. Conclusion - Mindray is positioned as a top pick in the medtech sector with a strong growth trajectory, strategic international expansion, and a focus on innovation, despite facing certain risks and market challenges [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently experiencing losses primarily due to market adjustments and government procurement impacts on its vaccine and IVD segments [1] Group 1 - The company aims to continuously improve management levels to enhance business scale and efficiency [1] - The company plans to promote sustainable development and create greater value for shareholders through both organic growth and external expansion [1] - The company is committed to providing better returns for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock purchases by the executives of Mindray Medical, including Chairman Li Xiting, indicate strong confidence in the company's future growth and intrinsic value, especially as the company anticipates a recovery in domestic business and continued international expansion [1][4][11]. Group 1: Executive Stock Purchases - Chairman Li Xiting has invested approximately 29.99 million yuan by purchasing 152,300 shares at an average price of 196.862 yuan per share, marking his first stock buy [3][4]. - Li Xiting plans to continue purchasing shares in the secondary market, with a total investment expected to reach 200 million yuan over the next six months [4]. - Other executives, including General Manager Wu Hao and Senior Vice President Li Zaiwen, have also made significant stock purchases, indicating a collective confidence in the company's prospects [6][7]. Group 2: Foreign Institutional Interest - Mindray Medical has attracted significant attention from foreign institutional investors, ranking second in the number of investigations among A-share listed companies, with 404 inquiries as of December 3 [1][8]. - The interest from foreign institutions reflects their strong belief in Mindray's potential, especially as the company has shown signs of recovery in its financial performance [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - In the third quarter of 2025, Mindray Medical reported a revenue increase of 1.53% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline of 23.77% in the second quarter [1][8]. - The company expects domestic business to recover to positive growth in 2026, with profit growth anticipated to turn positive as well [11]. - Mindray's international market potential is estimated to be 4-5 times larger than the domestic market, positioning the company for long-term growth in international business [11][13]. Group 4: Strategic Focus - Mindray is focusing on expanding its market share in the domestic market, particularly in the IVD (in vitro diagnostics) sector, which is expected to drive future growth [11]. - The company aims to leverage its "equipment + IT + AI" strategy to address the increasing demand for efficiency and cost control in global healthcare [13]. - Mindray's international business has shown robust growth, with a 11.9% increase in the third quarter, particularly strong in Europe and developing countries [13].

Core Insights - The "2025 Blue Book on the Current Status and Trends of Global Expansion of Chinese Medical Devices" provides a comprehensive analysis of the Chinese medical device industry's growth, challenges, and opportunities in global markets [1][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - China's medical device market size increased from 729.8 billion RMB in 2020 to 941.7 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 6.6% [1]. - The global medical device market grew from 456.6 billion USD to 623.0 billion USD during the same period, achieving a CAGR of 8.1% [2]. Group 2: Drivers of Global Expansion - Internal factors driving the global expansion of Chinese medical device companies include intense domestic competition, centralized procurement policies leading to price pressures, and improvements in R&D and innovation capabilities [3]. - External factors include a broad global market for medical devices, price competitiveness of Chinese products, and the rising global influence of China [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Trends - Early Chinese medical device companies focused on basic healthcare segments, leveraging cost advantages to export low-value consumables post-WTO accession in 2001 [4]. - The pandemic accelerated globalization for companies in molecular diagnostics, with a shift towards mid-high-end markets to enhance competitiveness by 2023 [4]. Group 4: Value Chain and Strategies - The medical device value chain encompasses R&D, manufacturing, distribution, and sales, forming a global ecosystem that enhances market reach and patient impact [5]. - Strategies for global expansion include various distribution models, overseas manufacturing, and mergers and acquisitions, with case studies illustrating successful paths [8]. Group 5: Sub-sector and Regional Analysis - The Blue Book includes a sub-sector analysis covering life support equipment, medical imaging, vascular intervention products, and more, assessing their current states and prospects [8]. - Regional analysis addresses the macroeconomics, medical insurance systems, and regulatory requirements in key markets such as the U.S., EU, Japan, and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [8]. Group 6: Challenges and Solutions - Key difficulties in global expansion include unclear direction, inaccurate market assessments, and a lack of understanding of market access procedures [8]. - Solutions involve increased R&D investment, alignment with international standards, and improved cross-cultural communication [8].

Summary of Mindray Bio-Medical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mindray Bio-Medical (300760.SZ) - **Industry**: China Healthcare Key Points Industry Insights - **China's Healthcare Recovery**: The healthcare infrastructure treasury bond issuance fell over 30% YoY to Rmb146 billion in Jan–Oct 2025, indicating a potential gradual recovery in the industry starting from 2026 [3][4] - **IVD Market Pressure**: The In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) sector, particularly CLIA, is expected to face ongoing pressure in 2026 due to the implementation of value-based pricing (VBP) for tumor biomarkers and thyroid reagents [3] - **Market Share**: Mindray holds a strong market share in China, with over 50-60% in key PMLS products, approximately 30% in Ultrasound, and around 10% in IVD [3] Growth Projections - **Emerging Markets (EM) Growth**: Management anticipates that Mindray's market share in emerging markets could reach levels similar to China within a few years, driven by high quality and cost advantages compared to foreign brands. EM growth was +7% YoY in 9M25, with expectations for faster growth from 2026 [4] - **Revenue Growth**: Mindray expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in overseas markets in the mid-term [4] Financial Performance - **Revenue and Earnings Estimates**: - 2025 estimated revenue: Rmb33,771 million - 2026 estimated revenue: Rmb36,744 million - 2025 estimated EPS: Rmb7.28, with a projected increase to Rmb8.24 in 2026 [6] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: GPM for both China and overseas markets is now comparable, but overall GPM is expected to decline notably YoY in 2025, stabilizing from 2026 [8] Strategic Focus - **Product Segmentation**: IVD is expected to lead growth, followed by stable growth in PMLS and ultrasound segments. Recurring consumables are projected to account for over 50% of revenue in 2025 [8] - **Ultrasound Expansion**: Management expects to expand ultrasound market share through the launch of ultra-high-end products, including a cardio ultrasound in 2026 [8] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: A discounted cash flow (DCF) model is used, assuming a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% starting from 2026 [9] - **Risks**: Potential risks include prolonged negative impacts from policy headwinds, trade tensions, and failure to generate synergies from mergers and acquisitions [11] Stock Performance - **Current Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb260.00, representing a 26% upside from the closing price of Rmb206.71 on November 18, 2025 [6] Additional Insights - **Channel Inventory Management**: Mindray aims to reduce channel inventory to a healthy ~2-month level by year-end 2025 [8] - **Market Dynamics**: The management emphasizes the importance of maintaining competitive pricing and quality to capture market share in both domestic and international markets [4][8]

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector reported a slight revenue growth of 0.20% year-on-year for Q3 2025, driven by innovative drugs and CXO benefiting from overseas orders and FDA approvals [1] - The medical device sector is experiencing slow recovery, with capital expenditures in hospitals remaining low, particularly in high-end imaging and IVD fields [1] - Traditional Chinese medicine saw a revenue increase of 1.60% year-on-year, but profits were pressured by adjustments in medical insurance catalogs and centralized procurement [1] - Pharmaceutical commercial revenue grew by 2.45%, although gross margins declined by 0.85 percentage points, indicating intensified price pressures in distribution channels [1] Short-term Outlook - The easing of centralized procurement policies for medical devices and steady progress in the innovative drug industry suggest stable operational performance in the pharmaceutical sector, with innovative drugs experiencing six consecutive quarters of high growth [1] - 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for commercial insurance, benefiting innovative drugs and devices along with their supply chains [1] Long-term Outlook - The continuous upgrade of China's pharmaceutical industry is being realized, supported by a series of domestic policies favoring innovative drugs and the increasing clinical value of products [1] - Global pharmaceutical companies are accelerating their purchases of innovative drugs from China, surpassing the pace seen in the U.S. and other countries, indicating a collective globalization of China's innovative drug industry [1] Focus Areas - Future attention will be directed towards three main areas: 1. Innovative drugs with strong global competitiveness, benefiting from both domestic and Western markets [2] 2. The innovative drug supply chain, including CXO and life sciences services, expected to see a recovery in order growth as global investment and financing accelerate [2] 3. Medical devices and equipment, particularly companies focusing on self-sufficiency, domestic substitution, and high-end manufacturing for international markets, as procurement policies continue to improve [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that multiple leading medical device companies are expected to experience a performance turning point by 2026 due to policy easing, procurement clearance, new product and business expansion, and international layout [1] - The long-term investment opportunities in the medical device sector stem from innovation, internationalization, and mergers and acquisitions, with the sector's innovative and international capabilities gradually being recognized and valuations being reassessed [1] - The bidding environment for medical devices has significantly improved this year, and the bidding outlook for 2026 will depend on policy changes, with some leading companies likely to see stable revenue growth or accelerated improvement [1] Group 2 - In the high-value consumables segment, the timing of performance turning points varies among companies due to differences in the implementation of procurement policies, with some companies expected to see operational turning points in 2026 due to procurement clearance or new product catalysts [1] - The IVD sector's performance in 2026 will still be influenced by multiple policies, but improvements are expected compared to 2025, with the elimination of VAT impacts and stabilization of testing volumes [1] - In the low-value consumables segment, domestic business is expected to maintain steady growth, while overseas production capacity is anticipated to contribute to performance growth as it comes online [2] Group 3 - The home medical device industry is expected to continue its steady growth trend in 2026, with leading domestic companies likely to accelerate internationalization through team building and mergers and acquisitions [2]

Core Insights - The medical device industry in China is experiencing a period of contraction across various segments due to multiple factors [1] - The IVD (In Vitro Diagnostics) sector is currently facing a decline in both volume and price, making recovery difficult in the short term [1] Industry Summary - The medical device industry has been undergoing a turbulent phase over the past few years, leading to varying degrees of shrinkage in market size [1] - The IVD industry is particularly impacted, with challenges in both sales volume and pricing [1]