Overall Situation - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a revenue decline of 2% and a net profit drop of 1% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a further decline in net profit of 3% in Q3 2025 [1][2] - The innovative drug segment showed strong revenue growth in Q3 2025, particularly in Bio-Pharma, CXO, and upstream sectors, while overall revenue growth has remained flat or slightly declining since Q1 2023 [1][3] Performance by Sub-Sectors - **Pharma**: Revenue decreased by 1% YoY in Q3 2025, with a significant drop in net profit by 13% [2] - **Bio-Tech**: Revenue surged by 61% YoY in Q3 2025, indicating strong performance despite a net profit decline of 32% [2] - **Bio-Pharma**: Revenue growth of 18% YoY in Q3 2025, with net profit increasing by 151% [2] - **CXO**: Revenue growth of 10% YoY in Q3 2025, with net profit up by 51% [2] - **Upstream**: Revenue increased by 13% YoY in Q3 2025, with net profit rising by 49% [2] - **Medical Devices**: Revenue grew by 11% YoY in Q3 2025, while net profit increased by 8% [2] - **IVD**: Revenue declined by 11% YoY in Q3 2025, with a net profit drop of 17% [2] - **High-value Consumables**: Revenue growth of 8% YoY in Q3 2025, with net profit up by 3% [2] - **Low-value Consumables**: Revenue decreased by 6% YoY in Q3 2025, with a net profit decline of 19% [2] Future Outlook - **Innovative Drugs**: Q3 2025 is expected to be the most challenging quarter for many Pharma companies, but upcoming clinical data releases and new drug approvals in 2026 are anticipated to drive revenue and profit growth [3] - **CXO**: The sector is expected to recover, with external demand for CDMO services improving and domestic CRO demand stabilizing [5] - **Upstream Research Services**: Revenue growth is expected to continue as industry demand accelerates [6][7] - **Medical Devices**: The sector is projected to see continued improvement in Q4 2025, with inventory levels returning to normal and potential growth in high-value products [8] Investment Insights - The focus is shifting back to the fundamentals of the innovative drug industry, with a need for tangible actions from multinational corporations (MNCs) to validate their partnerships [4] - Investment opportunities may arise from companies with strong collaborations with MNCs, as their clinical pipelines gain recognition and valuation [4] - A diversified index-based approach is recommended for participating in the pharmaceutical sector, with specific ETFs focusing on innovative drugs and medical devices [9][10]

Core Insights - The 10th Pharmaceutical Innovation and Investment Conference has commenced in Nanjing, attracting nearly a thousand participants from academia, industry, and investment sectors, including leaders from renowned pharmaceutical companies [1][2] - The conference serves as a platform to explore global pharmaceutical innovation trends and has become a "barometer" for pharmaceutical innovation and investment in China since its inception in 2016 [1][2] Group 1: Conference Highlights - The conference features various sub-forums focusing on cutting-edge topics such as anti-tumor new drugs, gene and cell therapy, and AI in pharmaceutical research, along with discussions on commercial insurance and healthcare payment reforms [2] - A special session, "Nanjing Jiangbei New Area-Hong Kong Biopharmaceutical Industry Exchange Conference," facilitates in-depth discussions between Hong Kong representatives and local enterprises [2] Group 2: Industry Development - The Jiangbei New Area is emerging as a vibrant hub for the biopharmaceutical industry, with over 1,300 biopharmaceutical companies and a competitive ranking of 8th nationwide [3] - The area has seen significant achievements, including 402 listed drugs and 1,261 medical device products, with several innovative products being first in the world [3] - The local biopharmaceutical sector is attracting attention from the capital market, with multiple companies, including Yaojie Ankang and Weili Zhibo, recently listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3][4] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The choice of Jiangbei New Area as the conference venue reflects the growing number of projects and enterprises in the region, which is also home to the first national university technology transfer center for biomedicine [5] - The presence of industry leaders at the conference is expected to inject confidence and vitality into the local biopharmaceutical ecosystem, paving the way for new collaborations and projects [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the unique opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector amidst market fluctuations, questioning whether innovative drugs have peaked and exploring hidden opportunities in Hong Kong stocks [1]. Event Overview - A closed-door salon focused on pharmaceutical investments will be held on October 30, 2025, in Shanghai, themed "Tide Rising in the East, Medicine Meets the Future," aimed at providing investment advisors with practical strategies for Q4 pharmaceutical investments [1][12]. Agenda Highlights - The event features a tight agenda addressing practical pain points for investment advisors: - **Top-Level Insights**: A session by Yang Song, covering a decade of China's innovative drug industry, helping attendees understand the investment value and current cycle position [3]. - **Tool Exploration**: Liu Jie will analyze investment opportunities in Hong Kong's innovative drug sector, discussing how to utilize ETFs for efficient exposure to the sector [4]. - **Practical Strategies**: Zhu Wei will share insights on transforming industry knowledge into tangible client returns, enhancing the professional value of investment advisors [5]. - **Interactive Discussion**: A group discussion will allow attendees to exchange experiences and address specific queries regarding opportunities in pharmaceutical stocks [6]. Value Proposition - The event aims to bridge the entire chain from industry research to investment strategy and client service [8]. - Attendees will interact with top experts from brokerage research, fund investment, and frontline advisory roles [9]. - Participants will gain specific investment insights for the pharmaceutical sector and Hong Kong market, along with networking opportunities with 100 outstanding peers in Shanghai [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese asset market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks declining sharply, particularly in high-tech sectors, while the healthcare sector shows signs of resilience and potential investment opportunities [1][3][4]. A-shares and ETFs Performance - A-shares saw all three major indices decline, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both dropping over 3%, while the largest medical ETF (512170) fell by 2.39% but showed strong buying interest with a trading volume increase of 30% to 687 million yuan [1][3]. - The only drug ETF in the market (562050) outperformed the market with a decline of only 1.56%, indicating strong buying momentum as it traded at a premium throughout the day [3]. Hong Kong Stocks and Innovation Drugs - The Hong Kong innovation drug sector has faced volatility, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug ETF (520880) dropping 2.53% after two consecutive days of gains, while 33 out of 37 covered companies saw declines [3][4]. - Despite the downturn, the Hong Kong innovation drug ETF has also been trading at a premium, with a net inflow of over 128 million yuan in the past five days, suggesting continued investor interest [3][4]. Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The market is shifting from high-tech assets to dividend-paying assets, with healthcare ETFs and innovation drug ETFs attracting significant capital inflows [3][4]. - Analysts predict a potential rebound for the innovation drug sector in the fourth quarter, driven by multiple catalysts such as industry conferences, favorable quarterly earnings, and upcoming national healthcare negotiations [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies focus on identifying companies with strong quarterly earnings, particularly in the CXO sector, and balancing portfolios between innovation drugs and other healthcare segments [4][5]. - The medical ETF (512170) is noted for its high cost-performance ratio, with a current PE valuation of 35.1 times, lower than 60% of the past decade, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [3][4].

Core Insights - In September, the A-share market continued to rise, particularly driven by technology stocks, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 12% [1] - Among 1,038 ordinary equity funds, 815 funds achieved positive performance in September, representing 78% of the total [1] - The top five funds with gains exceeding 30% were all managed by Harvest Fund, highlighting strong performance in the new energy and clean energy sectors [1] Fund Performance - The top-performing funds included Harvest New Energy New Materials Stock A and C, Harvest Intelligent Automotive Stock, and Harvest Clean Energy Stock, with gains ranging from 30.20% to 31.28% [1] - The management team for Harvest New Energy New Materials Stock consists of experienced managers Yao Zhipeng and Xiong Yuzhou, who have been with Harvest Fund for several years [1] Top Holdings - The top ten holdings of Harvest New Energy New Materials Stock include major companies such as CATL, Putailai, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, most of which saw significant increases in September [2] - Harvest Intelligent Automotive Stock has a similar portfolio to Harvest New Energy New Materials Stock, indicating a focused investment strategy in lithium battery materials [3] - Other funds like Manulife New Energy Stock and Eimi Low Carbon Economy Stock also reported gains of over 25%, with a focus on new energy and semiconductor sectors [3] Sector Analysis - The clean energy sector, particularly companies involved in lithium battery materials, has shown strong performance, with funds like Harvest Clean Energy Stock and others heavily invested in this area [4] - The overall performance of ordinary equity funds was positive, with only 22 funds experiencing a decline of more than 5% in September [4] - Funds focused on the healthcare sector, such as Red Soil Innovation Medical Health Stock and Golden Eagle Medical Health Stock, faced declines, indicating sector-specific challenges [5]

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a resurgence driven by innovation, favorable policies, and an aging population, positioning it as a key investment opportunity [2][5][6] Historical Market Review - The pharmaceutical sector has undergone multiple market cycles over the past fifteen years, with significant performance variations influenced by unique driving factors [2] - From 2009 to 2010, the industry saw a substantial rebound due to the "four trillion" policy, resulting in a 148.46% increase in the CSI Pharmaceutical Index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 54.22% rise [2][3] - Between 2013 and 2015, the sector faced stricter regulations, leading to a mixed performance where it did not outperform the ChiNext Index, although new themes like smart healthcare gained traction [3] - The period from 2019 to 2021 was marked by a strong performance driven by the pandemic, with the CXO Index surging 277.13% [3] - In 2024, the pharmaceutical sector faced challenges, with the CSI Pharmaceutical Index declining 14.53%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index [4] Current Investment Value Analysis - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is considered reasonable after prior adjustments, with some indices showing attractive investment metrics [5] - Leading pharmaceutical companies are expected to maintain stable growth due to the commercialization of innovative drugs and steady performance in traditional drug segments [5] - The aging population is projected to drive increased healthcare demand, with 22.0% of the population aged 60 and above by the end of 2024 [5] - There has been a notable inflow of funds into the medical device sector, indicating growing market confidence in certain pharmaceutical sub-sectors [5][6] Policy Environment - The policy focus is shifting from cost control to innovation-driven growth, with reforms in the medical insurance payment system and expedited drug approval processes [6] - The National Medical Insurance Administration plans to expand the medical insurance drug list, which will benefit the industry's innovation and profitability [6] Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - Innovative drugs are becoming the focal point of the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, with significant advancements in areas like oncology and antibody-drug conjugates [7] - The total value of license-out deals for Chinese innovative drugs surpassed $60 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong international presence [7] Investment Participation Strategies - Investors are encouraged to adopt a systematic investment approach to mitigate short-term volatility, as the pharmaceutical sector is characterized by long-term growth potential [9] - Focus on sectors with strong policy support and international expansion opportunities, such as innovative drugs and medical devices, is recommended [9]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Zhongyin Innovation Medical Mixed A (007718) reported a profit of 1.055 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.7264 yuan, and a net asset value growth rate of 54.08% [2] Fund Performance - As of September 2, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 2.418 yuan, with a recent three-month net value growth rate of 36.41%, ranking 12 out of 138 comparable funds [5] - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 73.73%, ranking 8 out of 138, and the one-year growth rate was 105.10%, ranking 7 out of 135 [5] - Over the past three years, the fund's net value growth rate was 83.83%, ranking 2 out of 108 [5] Fund Management Insights - The fund manager, Zheng Ning, oversees four funds, all of which have positive returns over the past year [2] - The fund's management anticipates a moderate economic slowdown in the U.S. with a potential rise in inflation, influenced by tax cuts and regulatory relaxations under uncertain Trump policies [2] Valuation Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately 71.41 times, compared to the industry average of 120.96 times [10] - The weighted average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 5.97 times, while the industry average was 4.07 times [10] - The weighted average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was approximately 10.65 times, against an industry average of 6.52 times [10] Growth Metrics - For the first half of 2025, the fund's weighted average revenue growth rate was 0.11%, and the weighted average net profit growth rate was 29.65% [17] - The weighted annualized return on equity was 0.08% [17] Risk and Return Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.6073, ranking 4 out of 105 comparable funds [25] - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 40.72%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 27% [27] Fund Composition - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had a total scale of 1.266 billion yuan, with 24,000 holders collectively owning 683 million shares [32][35] - The fund's turnover rate over the last six months was approximately 88.46%, consistently below the industry average for two years [38] - The fund's top ten holdings have consistently exceeded 60% concentration over the past two years, with major stocks including Innovent Biologics, Kelun-Biotech, and Hengrui Medicine [41]

Core Viewpoint - Baiyunshan continues to face performance challenges, reporting a slight revenue increase but a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating ongoing industry pressures and competition [3][4]. Financial Performance - Baiyunshan's revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 41.835 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%, while net profit was about 2.516 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.31% compared to the previous year [3]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities was negative, decreasing by 66.79% to approximately -3.397 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced receivables and increased procurement payments [4][5]. - In Q2 2025, Baiyunshan reported revenue of 19.361 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.99%, and a net profit of 0.695 billion yuan, up 17.48% [3]. Business Segments - Baiyunshan's major business segments include traditional Chinese medicine, chemical raw materials, and health products, with the pharmaceutical manufacturing segment experiencing a revenue decline [4][5]. - The Daan Pharmaceutical segment generated approximately 5.241 billion yuan in revenue, showing a double-digit decline, while the health segment's revenue was about 7.023 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.42% [4]. - The commercial segment remains the largest revenue source, accounting for approximately 69.32% of total revenue, primarily from pharmaceutical distribution and retail [5]. Investment and Future Plans - Baiyunshan plans to invest approximately 1.5 billion yuan in the Guangzhou Guangyao Fund II to foster new profit growth points, with the fund's registration completed in July 2025 [5]. - The company has also seen an increase in accounts receivable, rising by 10.45% year-on-year to approximately 18.468 billion yuan, indicating potential liquidity issues [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a significant rise in global influence, driven by a deep understanding of industry dynamics and strong policy support, positioning it as a key player in the investment landscape [1][10]. Industry Growth and Demand - The Shenyin Wanguo Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Index has surged by 22.31% year-to-date as of July 31, 2023, ranking second among 31 industries, following a previous four-year decline of over 50% [2]. - The pharmaceutical industry's growth is closely linked to humanity's pursuit of health, with historical advancements in medicine marking significant milestones [3]. - The demand for healthcare is expected to grow due to demographic changes, with the global population aged 65 and older projected to reach 10.2% by the end of 2024, and China's proportion expected to rise to 15.6% [5]. - Chronic diseases such as cancer and diabetes are on the rise, leading to increased demand for prevention and treatment, while the definition of health is expanding to include wellness and aesthetics [5]. - China's healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP has increased from 4.9% in 2010 to 7.1% in 2022, indicating a growing market potential compared to developed countries [5]. Supply-Side Dynamics - The pharmaceutical industry is characterized by high barriers to entry and scarcity, with stringent regulations governing drug approval and production [6]. - The core competitiveness of pharmaceutical companies lies not only in their products but also in their research and development capabilities, which require significant time and investment [6][7]. - The interplay of rigid demand growth and high supply barriers creates a unique investment landscape in the pharmaceutical sector [7]. Recent Challenges and Market Sentiment - Despite being a promising sector, the A-share pharmaceutical index experienced a cumulative decline of over 40% from 2021 to 2024 due to various factors, including a downturn in the innovative drug cycle and concerns over pricing pressures from healthcare reforms [8][9]. - Market sentiment has been affected by fears of cost control measures and drug price negotiations, although these concerns may be short-term in nature [9]. Policy and Internationalization - Recent policy initiatives from the Chinese government aim to enhance the pharmaceutical industry's global competitiveness, with a focus on creating a supportive environment for innovation [10][12]. - China's pharmaceutical R&D capabilities have significantly improved, with the country now leading in the number of innovative drugs developed, and the proportion of first-in-class (FIC) drugs increasing from under 10% in 2015 to 31% in 2024 [12][13]. Investment Strategy and Performance - The investment team at ICBC Credit Suisse has established a strong track record in the pharmaceutical sector, with several funds outperforming benchmarks significantly [15][16]. - The team's investment strategy focuses on quality factors, emphasizing research efficiency, commercialization capabilities, and global expansion potential [20]. - The ICBC Health Industry fund has achieved a net value growth rate of 69.60% year-to-date as of July 31, 2023, indicating strong performance in the market [18][21].

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is complex, with cyclical fluctuations in raw materials, high-tech characteristics of innovative drugs, and the consumer nature of medical services intertwining, making market predictions and investment management challenging [1] - Jiang Qi, a fund manager at Dongfanghong Asset Management, has developed a precise investment strategy in the pharmaceutical sector through years of industry experience [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The core of pharmaceutical investment lies in understanding cyclical fluctuations and long-term trends, which is essential for constructing resilient investment portfolios [2] - Jiang Qi's investment logic emphasizes a "top-down approach to selecting sectors and a bottom-up approach to selecting companies," with policy direction and growth potential as key indicators of sector value [2] - Historical trends show clear sector rotations, with innovative drugs and consumer upgrades becoming the main focus post-2019, and traditional Chinese medicine gaining traction due to policy support from 2022 to 2023 [2] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Long-term returns in the pharmaceutical industry stem from technological growth, with companies that continuously break through technical barriers and create clinical value being the most resilient [3] - A diversified portfolio is necessary to navigate market volatility, balancing growth stocks' explosive potential with the defensive strength of undervalued assets [3] Group 3: Innovation Focus - The key variable for investment success in the current phase is innovative drugs, which have transitioned from quantitative accumulation to qualitative breakthroughs since 2015 [4] - Investment in innovative drugs should move beyond traditional valuation frameworks, focusing on global competitiveness, clinical value, and commercialization potential [4] - Recent strategic collaborations between Chinese innovative drug companies and multinational pharmaceutical firms highlight the increasing credibility of Chinese clinical data and global competitiveness [4] Group 4: Future Projections - By the second half of 2025, the direction of the innovative drug industry is expected to become clearer, supported by technological advancements and improved clinical resources [5] - The upcoming reforms in commercial health insurance are anticipated to significantly impact the industry, similar to the 2015 clinical trial data verification initiative [5] - The period from 2025 to 2029 is projected to be the first phase of harvest for the innovative drug sector, following a decade of investment from 2015 to 2024 [5] Group 5: Value Preservation - The ultimate goal of investment is to focus on long-term value rather than short-term gains, especially in the face of high uncertainty in the pharmaceutical industry [6] - Risk control is crucial, with a focus on left-side positioning and in-depth research to uncover opportunities during industry downturns [7] - The long-term value anchor remains the clinical value and growth potential created by companies, addressing unmet health needs through innovation and service upgrades [7]