指引超预期，Token 经济学的最佳增长引擎 英伟达(NVDA.O) ——英伟达 FY26Q4 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 秦和平(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | qinheping@gtht.com | S0880523110003 | | 刁云鹏(研究助理) | 021-38674878 | diaoyunpeng@gtht.com | S0880125070016 | 本报告导读： 长期收入上调，毛利率维持坚挺。Agent 应用拐点已至，英伟达将凭借最优的 Token 成本，持续领跑 AI 基础设施。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2025A | 2026A | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 130,497 | 215,938 | 380,098 | 523,847 | 637,418 | | 同比增长 | 114.2% | 65.5% | 76.0% ...

这意味着，不论是用于大模型训练的高端GPU，还是支撑大型集群的高速网络组件，均处于增长状态。 在算力部署中，除了大众熟知的Blackwell系列芯片外，NVLink计算架构、以太网、InfiniBand平台等英 伟达的互联产品，也在迅速发展。 英伟达这份财报披露的一些数据超过此前市场预期。而面向2027财年，英伟达的指引还在增长，预计 2027财年第一财季营收为780亿美元，再次超出分析师预期。不过，中国市场依然存在悬念，财报指 出，截至目前，英伟达还没有在H200许可项目下产生任何收入。 英伟达CFO透露，接下来全年，英伟达还会继续销售Blackwell，同时销售Rubin架构芯片。游戏业务方 面，希望内存供应今年底的情况有所改变，目前看，未来几个季度供应还会非常紧张。汽车及机器人业 务方面，robotaxi服务正在增长，一些robotaxi公司的运营规模将在未来十年扩大数百万辆。 "算力即收入" 英伟达以一份打破纪录的财报，试图回击外界对AI泡沫的质疑。2月25日美股盘后，英伟达公布最新财 报，营收和利润都双位数攀升，再创历史新高。在市场对AI泡沫和云厂商数据中心资本支出表现出巨 大的担忧之际，英伟达CE ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's record-breaking financial report aims to counter skepticism regarding the AI bubble, showcasing significant revenue and profit growth amid concerns about capital expenditures in the AI sector [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4, Nvidia reported a record revenue of $68.127 billion, a 73% increase from $39.331 billion year-over-year; net profit reached $42.96 billion, up 94% from $22.091 billion [3]. - For the entire year, Nvidia's revenue was $215.938 billion, with a net profit of $120.067 billion, equating to daily earnings of approximately $32.8 million (RMB 220 million) [3]. - The data center business contributed $193.48 billion in revenue for the year, a 68% increase, and accounted for over 91% of total revenue in Q4, with Q4 revenue reaching $62.3 billion, up 75% year-over-year and 22% quarter-over-quarter [3]. Business Segments - Within the data center segment, the "compute business" (primarily GPU products) generated $51.3 billion, a 58% increase, while the "network business" contributed $11 billion, growing 263% [3]. - Nvidia plans to continue selling the Blackwell architecture and the Rubin architecture chips, while the gaming segment faces tight memory supply [4]. Market Outlook - Nvidia's guidance for Q1 of FY2027 anticipates revenue of $78 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [4]. - Concerns remain regarding the Chinese market, as Nvidia has not generated any revenue under the H200 licensing project to date [4]. Industry Context - Wall Street is worried about high capital expenditures from tech giants potentially leading to systemic credit risks, with an estimated $700 billion to be spent on AI expansion by companies like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon this year [5][6]. - Despite the positive outlook for Nvidia, analysts caution that a slowdown in tech investments could significantly impact the company [6]. Strategic Initiatives - Nvidia is working to solidify its position in the AI ecosystem, with CEO Jensen Huang indicating a near agreement with OpenAI for a potential $100 billion AI infrastructure project [7]. - The upcoming GTC 2026 conference is expected to unveil "world's first" new chips, with speculation around the Rubin and Feynman series [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - Nvidia faces competition from custom AI chips like Google's TPU and Amazon's Inferentia, which are challenging the dominance of general-purpose GPUs in data centers [8]. - TrendForce predicts that the shipment share of ASIC AI servers will rise to 27.8% by 2026, surpassing GPU AI servers in growth rate [8].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's record-breaking financial report aims to counter skepticism regarding the AI bubble, showcasing significant revenue and profit growth amid concerns about capital expenditures in the AI sector [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q4, Nvidia reported record revenue of $68.127 billion, a 73% increase from $39.331 billion year-over-year; net profit reached $42.960 billion, up 94% from $22.091 billion [3]. - For the entire year, Nvidia's revenue was $215.938 billion, with a net profit of $120.067 billion, equating to daily earnings of approximately $32.8 million (RMB 220 million) [3]. Business Segments - The data center segment generated $193.48 billion in revenue for the year, a 68% increase, and accounted for over 91% of total revenue in Q4, with $62.3 billion in revenue, up 75% year-over-year and 22% quarter-over-quarter [3]. - Within the data center segment, the "compute business" (primarily GPU products) contributed $51.3 billion, a 58% increase, while the "network business" generated $11 billion, a 263% increase [3]. Future Guidance - Nvidia's guidance for Q1 FY2027 anticipates revenue of $78 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [4]. - The CFO indicated ongoing sales of Blackwell and Rubin architecture chips, while the gaming segment faces tight memory supply [4]. Market Sentiment - Concerns persist among investors regarding potential threats from the AI bubble, with 23% of surveyed investors citing it as their primary concern, up from 9% in December [6]. - Despite positive performance, there are worries that capital expenditures by major tech firms may peak this year, impacting Nvidia [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - Nvidia aims to solidify its position in the AI ecosystem, with plans to integrate various sectors onto its platform, including AI, robotics, and life sciences [8]. - The company is nearing an agreement with OpenAI for a potential $100 billion AI infrastructure project and has acquired technology from AI startup Groq for $20 billion [8]. Upcoming Developments - Nvidia's GTC 2026 conference is set for March 15, where new, unprecedented chips are expected to be unveiled [8][9]. - Speculation surrounds the new chips, likely from the Rubin series or the next-generation Feynman series, which are anticipated to be revolutionary [9].

在此起彼伏的AI泡沫担忧声中，AI巨头英伟达依然稳定地超预期增长。 2月26日，英伟达公布了2026财年第四季度财报（截至2026年1月25日，相当于自然年2025年第四季度），营收和利润都双位数攀升，再创历史 新高。 Q4当季营收681.27亿美元，同比增长73%，环比增长20%；净利润高达429.6亿美元，同比增长94%，环比增长35%；毛利率提高到了75%。 | | | Revenue by Market Platform | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ($ in millions) | Q4 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY25 | Q/Q | Y /Y | | Data Center | $62.314 | $51,215 | $35,580 | 22 % | 75 % | | Compute | 51.334 | 43.028 | 32.556 | 19 % | 58 % | | Networking | 10.980 | 8.187 | 3.024 | 34 % | 263 % | | Gaming | 3.727 | ...